Hillary ahead by 15% (!!!) in first fully post-convention poll

[A Perez]

A new Raba Research poll shows Hillary Clinton defeating Donald Trump by a humongous 15%.

http://www.rabaresearch.com/documents/RABA-Updated-National-Survey-July-2016-2.pdf

I assume that the convention per se isn't the reason Trump is crumbling, but also his ties to Russia's Vladimir Putin.

 

[Maryland Patriot]

The first question, how likely are you to vote. 83% said they would be voting.
Considering that 83% will never vote in an election, I suspect this whole poll is worthless. It says what they want it to say.
I maintain my theory that there is only one poll that is accurate, and that will be in November. And even that poll is only as accurate as the one tasked at counting the votes.
With a secret ballot there is no way to prove results after the "count" has been concluded.

 

[Zander]

How cute. The Democrats are self soothing after their disaster of a convention.

"Head to your safe space and take solace....Everything will be OK."

 

[kaz]

A new Raba Research poll shows Hillary Clinton defeating Donald Trump by a humongous 15%.

http://www.rabaresearch.com/documents/RABA-Updated-National-Survey-July-2016-2.pdf

I assume that the convention per se isn't the reason Trump is crumbling, but also his ties to Russia's Vladimir Putin.

That poll was conducted at the DNC convention

 

[SuperDemocrat]

This looks like some college kid's homework assignment.

 

[Neotrotsky]

It is an internet poll

"956 interviews among voters were conducted July 29, 2016 via internet survey"
non-scientific
Democrats party of science- yeah right

Like your local TV station says
go to our website and vote on something

e.g.
95% respondents thnk Hillary looked like a marshmallow in her white outfit
during her convention speech


Democrats desperation is too
funny

but it does look like Queen Hillary has gotten a traditional convention bump
small one so far- which must explain the Democrats desperation to use non-scientific polls


Real Clear Politics
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton- oddly enough RABA is not to be found in the mix
funny how that works


RCP Average 7/18 - 7/29 -- -- 43.7 43.3 Clinton +0.4
Reuters/Ipsos 7/25 - 7/29 1050 LV 3.5 40 35 Clinton +5
LA Times/USC 7/23 - 7/29 2188 LV -- 42 47 Trump +5
Rasmussen Reports 7/26 - 7/27 1000 LV 3.0 43 42 Clinton +1
Economist/YouGov 7/23 - 7/24 1057 RV 4.5 47 42 Clinton +5
CNN/ORC 7/22 - 7/24 882 RV 3.5 45 48 Trump +3
CBS News 7/22 - 7/24 1118 RV 4.0 43 44 Trump +1
NBC News/SM 7/18 - 7/24 12931 RV 1.2 46 45 Clinton +1

 

[A Perez]

The first question, how likely are you to vote. 83% said they would be voting.
Considering that 83% will never vote in an election, I suspect this whole poll is worthless. It says what they want it to say.
I maintain my theory that there is only one poll that is accurate, and that will be in November. And even that poll is only as accurate as the one tasked at counting the votes.
With a secret ballot there is no way to prove results after the "count" has been concluded.

You made up the 83% claim.

 

[A Perez]

It is an internet poll

"956 interviews among voters were conducted July 29, 2016 via internet survey"
non-scientific
Democrats party of science- yeah right



Like your local TV station says
go to our website and vote on something




Democrats desperation is too
funny

but it does look like Queen Hillary has gotten a traditional convention bump
small one so far- which must explains the Democrats desperation to use non-scientific polls


Real Clear Politics
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton- oddly enough RABA is not to be found in the mix
funny that works


RCP Average 7/18 - 7/29 -- -- 43.7 43.3 Clinton +0.4
Reuters/Ipsos 7/25 - 7/29 1050 LV 3.5 40 35 Clinton +5
LA Times/USC 7/23 - 7/29 2188 LV -- 42 47 Trump +5
Rasmussen Reports 7/26 - 7/27 1000 LV 3.0 43 42 Clinton +1
Economist/YouGov 7/23 - 7/24 1057 RV 4.5 47 42 Clinton +5
CNN/ORC 7/22 - 7/24 882 RV 3.5 45 48 Trump +3
CBS News 7/22 - 7/24 1118 RV 4.0 43 44 Trump +1
NBC News/SM 7/18 - 7/24 12931 RV 1.2 46 45 Clinton +1

It is a scientific poll. Unscientific polls are the ones that do not control for race, gender, etc. HuffPo only lists scientific polls, but you pretended that RCP is the only poll aggregator in the world RABA Research (7/29 2016)
HuffPo included RABA

 

[Remodeling Maidiac]

Hahaha what a joke

Some people are so gullible

 

[Meathead]

It is a scientific poll. Unscientific polls are the ones that do not control for race, gender, etc.

Can Americans get any dumber?

 

[A Perez]

It is an internet poll

"956 interviews among voters were conducted July 29, 2016 via internet survey"
non-scientific
Democrats party of science- yeah right

Like your local TV station says
go to our website and vote on something

e.g.
95% respondents thnk Hillary looked like a marshmallow in her white outfit
during her convention speech


Democrats desperation is too
funny

but it does look like Queen Hillary has gotten a traditional convention bump
small one so far- which must explain the Democrats desperation to use non-scientific polls


Real Clear Politics
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton- oddly enough RABA is not to be found in the mix
funny how that works


RCP Average 7/18 - 7/29 -- -- 43.7 43.3 Clinton +0.4
Reuters/Ipsos 7/25 - 7/29 1050 LV 3.5 40 35 Clinton +5
LA Times/USC 7/23 - 7/29 2188 LV -- 42 47 Trump +5
Rasmussen Reports 7/26 - 7/27 1000 LV 3.0 43 42 Clinton +1
Economist/YouGov 7/23 - 7/24 1057 RV 4.5 47 42 Clinton +5
CNN/ORC 7/22 - 7/24 882 RV 3.5 45 48 Trump +3
CBS News 7/22 - 7/24 1118 RV 4.0 43 44 Trump +1
NBC News/SM 7/18 - 7/24 12931 RV 1.2 46 45 Clinton +1

Wait a minute. YouGov is an online poll, isn't it?

 

[Neotrotsky]

It is an internet poll

"956 interviews among voters were conducted July 29, 2016 via internet survey"
non-scientific
Democrats party of science- yeah right



Like your local TV station says
go to our website and vote on something




Democrats desperation is too
funny

but it does look like Queen Hillary has gotten a traditional convention bump
small one so far- which must explains the Democrats desperation to use non-scientific polls


Real Clear Politics
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton- oddly enough RABA is not to be found in the mix
funny that works


RCP Average 7/18 - 7/29 -- -- 43.7 43.3 Clinton +0.4
Reuters/Ipsos 7/25 - 7/29 1050 LV 3.5 40 35 Clinton +5
LA Times/USC 7/23 - 7/29 2188 LV -- 42 47 Trump +5
Rasmussen Reports 7/26 - 7/27 1000 LV 3.0 43 42 Clinton +1
Economist/YouGov 7/23 - 7/24 1057 RV 4.5 47 42 Clinton +5
CNN/ORC 7/22 - 7/24 882 RV 3.5 45 48 Trump +3
CBS News 7/22 - 7/24 1118 RV 4.0 43 44 Trump +1
NBC News/SM 7/18 - 7/24 12931 RV 1.2 46 45 Clinton +1

It is a scientific poll. Unscientific polls are the ones that do not control for race, gender, etc.

dude- it was an "internet survey" - their description
enough said...

non-scientific as in the traditional probability polls
look- even if one was falsely assume it was the same
based on the RCP average- it was a poll not near the avg and with serious issue

Be happy
she is up by a whole spread of +.04 -Clinton +0.4 spread by RCP
who knows in a week it might be a whole percentage point

 

[A Perez]

It is an internet poll

"956 interviews among voters were conducted July 29, 2016 via internet survey"
non-scientific
Democrats party of science- yeah right



Like your local TV station says
go to our website and vote on something




Democrats desperation is too
funny

but it does look like Queen Hillary has gotten a traditional convention bump
small one so far- which must explains the Democrats desperation to use non-scientific polls


Real Clear Politics
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton- oddly enough RABA is not to be found in the mix
funny that works


RCP Average 7/18 - 7/29 -- -- 43.7 43.3 Clinton +0.4
Reuters/Ipsos 7/25 - 7/29 1050 LV 3.5 40 35 Clinton +5
LA Times/USC 7/23 - 7/29 2188 LV -- 42 47 Trump +5
Rasmussen Reports 7/26 - 7/27 1000 LV 3.0 43 42 Clinton +1
Economist/YouGov 7/23 - 7/24 1057 RV 4.5 47 42 Clinton +5
CNN/ORC 7/22 - 7/24 882 RV 3.5 45 48 Trump +3
CBS News 7/22 - 7/24 1118 RV 4.0 43 44 Trump +1
NBC News/SM 7/18 - 7/24 12931 RV 1.2 46 45 Clinton +1

It is a scientific poll. Unscientific polls are the ones that do not control for race, gender, etc.

dude- it was an "internet survey" - their description
enough said...

non-scientific as in the traditional probability polls
look- even if one was falsely assume it was the same
based on the RCP average- it was a poll not near the avg and with serious issue

Be happy
she is up by a whole spread of +.04 -Clinton +0.4 spread by RCP
who knows in a week it might be a whole percentage point

You didn't answer my question about YouGov. Is Yougov unscientific because it's an online survey?
"YouGov conducts its public opinion surveys online " YouGov | Panel Methodology

Question #2) Why is Nate Silver tweeting the RABA results? Does Nate tweet unscientific poll results? Nate Silver on Twitter

 

[jon_berzerk]

A new Raba Research poll shows Hillary Clinton defeating Donald Trump by a humongous 15%.

http://www.rabaresearch.com/documents/RABA-Updated-National-Survey-July-2016-2.pdf

I assume that the convention per se isn't the reason Trump is crumbling, but also his ties to Russia's Vladimir Putin.

the key you see is to ask the questions in such a way

that it hides hillarys horrendous negatives

however that doesnt help her on the final poll come November

but it does provide temporary comfort for the believers

 

[JakeStarkey]

Our resident far right

as the lion

 

[Neotrotsky]

It is an internet poll

"956 interviews among voters were conducted July 29, 2016 via internet survey"
non-scientific
Democrats party of science- yeah right

Like your local TV station says
go to our website and vote on something




Democrats desperation is too
funny

but it does look like Queen Hillary has gotten a traditional convention bump
small one so far- which must explains the Democrats desperation to use non-scientific polls


Real Clear Politics
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton- oddly enough RABA is not to be found in the mix
funny that works


RCP Average 7/18 - 7/29 -- -- 43.7 43.3 Clinton +0.4
Reuters/Ipsos 7/25 - 7/29 1050 LV 3.5 40 35 Clinton +5
LA Times/USC 7/23 - 7/29 2188 LV -- 42 47 Trump +5
Rasmussen Reports 7/26 - 7/27 1000 LV 3.0 43 42 Clinton +1
Economist/YouGov 7/23 - 7/24 1057 RV 4.5 47 42 Clinton +5
CNN/ORC 7/22 - 7/24 882 RV 3.5 45 48 Trump +3
CBS News 7/22 - 7/24 1118 RV 4.0 43 44 Trump +1
NBC News/SM 7/18 - 7/24 12931 RV 1.2 46 45 Clinton +1

It is a scientific poll. Unscientific polls are the ones that do not control for race, gender, etc.

dude- it was an "internet survey" - their description
enough said...

non-scientific as in the traditional probability polls
look- even if one was falsely assume it was the same
based on the RCP average- it was a poll not near the avg and with serious issue

Be happy
she is up by a whole spread of +.04 -Clinton +0.4 spread by RCP
who knows in a week it might be a whole percentage point

You didn't answer my question about YouGov. Is Yougov unscientific because it's an online survey?
"YouGov conducts its public opinion surveys online " YouGov | Panel Methodology

Question #2) Why is Nate Silver tweeting the RABA results? Does Nate tweet unscientific poll results? Nate Silver on Twitter

based on method , the difference
web based interview is not internet survey

Nate Silver - considering his poor performance this past year
it looks like his past successes might have been statistical flukes, themselves
even a broken analog clock is right twice a day

This happens every election
candidates go up and go down in types of polls

But it is a posting best practice for serious
discussions use avg of many good polls

For the "red meat" discussions, single polls

they go up and down and people
throw it around

i have no doubt Queen Hillary will go up more from the traditional convention bounce
I have serious doubts she will win come election time



Poll
CNN/ORC 7/22 - 7/24 882 RV 3.5 45 48 Trump +3

a whole 18 percentage difference
one must be wrong

or maybe the truth is more in the average

 

[buckeye45_73]

The first question, how likely are you to vote. 83% said they would be voting.
Considering that 83% will never vote in an election, I suspect this whole poll is worthless. It says what they want it to say.
I maintain my theory that there is only one poll that is accurate, and that will be in November. And even that poll is only as accurate as the one tasked at counting the votes.
With a secret ballot there is no way to prove results after the "count" has been concluded.

You made up the 83% claim.

It's the first question, do you even read the shit you post
1. How likely are you to vote in this November’s presidential election?
Total
Absolutely certain 83%
Probably 8%
50-50 9%

 

[Fang]

According to Liberals polls didn't count last week. Now all of a sudden they count.

 

[jon_berzerk]

founded in 2016

--LOL

 

[Maryland Patriot]

According to Liberals polls didn't count last week. Now all of a sudden they count.

to anyone with a brain, polls have very little bearing on anything at all.
I bet I could take a poll and have Trump winning by over 90%.