Do you truly not understand the probabilistic difference between what climate level hurricane frequencies/likelihoods and weather-event level probabilities?
From the article:
Each and every year there is a chance, a 0.002 chance, that we will see another flood like Harvey. Or to put it another way, each year for the next 50,000 there is a 99.998% chance that we will NOT see a flood like Harvey. So, yes, I'm sayin' there's a chance.
For climate science's predictions to be accurate, the hurricanes don't have to make landfall even. They need only be produced as per the predictions and within the margin of error. As goes the 99.998% chance of which the article speaks, that pertains to hurricanes like Harvey making landfall and causing flooding damage like Harvey did. That has nothing to do with the quantity and intensity of hurricanes that are created.
Hell, KHOU doesn't even provide enough information for readers to know whether the risk percentage they note is Houston-specific.
Well s0n........people like me who have been on this earth for many many decades never saw anything like Harvey and it is highly likely I'll long be in my box when we see it again. The math is certainly closer to the level of probability as compared to the goofball climate crusaders making statements that this shit is going to become the norm. They say shit like that all the time.......and it never, ever comes to pass. We'll go with the math...........
A warmer, wetter atmosphere could also affect tropical storms (hurricanes), but changes to tropical storms are harder to predict and track. Some scientists have speculated that a warmer climate that allows more intense storms to develop would also spawn more hurricanes. Warmer temperatures may also heat ocean waters farther from the Equator, expanding the reach of large tropical storms. But there is little evidence to support the either of these theories, says Kerry Emanuel, a professor of tropical meteorology and climate in the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Program in Atmospheres, Oceans, and Climate.
The one way in which global warming could impact hurricanes is by making them more intense. More heat and water in the atmosphere and warmer sea surface temperatures could provide more fuel to increase the wind speeds of tropical storms. Warming that has already occurred since 1980 has increased sea surface temperatures 0.3 degrees Celsius, which should increase the maximum potential wind speed of hurricanes by 1 knot, according to hurricane intensity models. But increases that small could not have been observed yet. “At present, hurricane intensity is measured only to an accuracy of plus or minus five knots, so it is not possible to discern any change that might have occurred owing to warming that has already taken place,” says Emanuel.
Even if tropical storms don’t change significantly, other environmental changes brought on by global warming could make the storms more deadly. Melting glaciers and ice caps will likely cause sea levels to rise, which would make coastal flooding more severe when a storm comes ashore. In their 2001 report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change stated that global warming should cause sea levels to rise 0.11 to 0.77 meters (0.36 to 2.5 feet) by 2100.
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