Good Time To Buy XTO?

[Duke505]

I have been watching XTO stock for a while now. It looks like at one time they were up in the $70 per share range and now you can buy at $36. Do you think this is a credible company and is it a good time to buy their stock??

 

[Paulie]

I like them. Good balance sheet, and good upside potential considering we're going to be seeing inflation in energy again sometime soon. They hit the 70 range in July when oil was high. Oil will be high again.

Buy USO and XTO, DGP (double long gold), short the Dollar, and see a nice profit, in my opinion.

 

[Gord]

Where is this demand for oil and natural gas going to come from? I see energy companies scaling back big time. They certainly don't seem to be planning on energy prices going up any time soon.

 

[Duke505]

Usually you see a high in natural gas this time of year due to the cold. I think its been a mild winter so far. I do believe there will always be a demand for natural gas. That is until it's all gone!!

 

[Gord]

Usually you see a high in natural gas this time of year due to the cold. I think its been a mild winter so far. I do believe there will always be a demand for natural gas. That is until it's all gone!!

Huh? Haven't you been paying attention to the news? It's been the coldest year in a decade. It is industrial demand that is down.

 

[Duke505]

You are correct for the Northern portion of the US. The Southern portion is way above average on temps.

 

[Gord]

You are correct for the Northern portion of the US. The Southern portion is way above average on temps.

I didn't mean just America, but the whole world. Take a look at the nat gas futures. They've fallen from a high of $13.70 to around $4.50 in 13 months. Contract volume has fallen 30% - that is tremendous demand fall off. We're at the tipping point of winter so consumer demand will soon begin to fall. I don't trade long term (I only daytrade), but I don't see nat gas going higher any time soon. But if you think its at a bottom, well hey, go long, and good luck to you...

 

[Paulie]

Gord you're not taking inflation into consideration. The monetary base is at an unprecedented level right now, and that means that concerns for inflation are high, as they SHOULD be in this case. The consequences for the money supply are freightening to say the least.

We're most likely going to be seeing some really bad inflation when the banks start loosening up and lending again. The dollar will lose value, and commodities will go up. Energy will be high again. We'll be seeing $100 oil again, maybe by the end of the year, but definitely next year.

 

[Gord]

Gord you're not taking inflation into consideration. The monetary base is at an unprecedented level right now, and that means that concerns for inflation are high, as they SHOULD be in this case. The consequences for the money supply are freightening to say the least.

We're most likely going to be seeing some really bad inflation when the banks start loosening up and lending again. The dollar will lose value, and commodities will go up. Energy will be high again. We'll be seeing $100 oil again, maybe by the end of the year, but definitely next year.

Then shorting the dollar seems the more sure bet to me. Inflation will not increase demand for nat gas, but probably reduce it more. There may be a saw off with a lower dollar, but how will that significantly increase the price of nat gas? I heard on the radio the other day there are tankers full of nat gas and oil sitting idol waiting for buyers.

 

[Gord]

And one more thing. Inflation is no sure bet. Many economists are fretting about deflation which would be much worse, creating a spiraling down of consumer demand.

 

[Paulie]

And one more thing. Inflation is no sure bet. Many economists are fretting about deflation which would be much worse, creating a spiraling down of consumer demand.

Yes, inflation IS a sure bet in this case. You need to read some of Gonegolfin's threads in "Economy" to get a better understanding of it. Right now, the monetary base, which consists of all bank reserves, is at an unprecedented level due to the Federal Reserve's various market actions over the past year, specifically. That money, when they finally stop sitting on it, whether it's invested or lent, is going to raise the money supply and in accordance, raise the level of inflation.

Yes, right now we're looking at deflation, because money is becoming scarce due to lack of borrowing/lending, spending, and investing.

That isn't going to last forever, especially since the Federal Reserve has been swapping debt with the banks and taking on their liabilities in lieu of liquidity. The monetary base is something like 900 Billion right now. This is going to substantially affect the money supply at some point, and inflation is going to be a major concern.

A weak dollar means commodities increase, including energy. We're going to see oil over $100 again. When XTO was at their high of ~70, it was when oil was the most expensive. Natural gas may very well be a slightly different story here, but you can't discount oil. Oil/gasoline demand will rise with inflation, and the weaker dollar will translate into more expensive goods and services.

If you don't want to listen, that's fine. But inflation is staring us right in the face. Maybe not by the end of this year, but when those banks start lending and investing again, watch out. It's not going to be pretty.

 

[Gord]

And one more thing. Inflation is no sure bet. Many economists are fretting about deflation which would be much worse, creating a spiraling down of consumer demand.

Yes, inflation IS a sure bet in this case. You need to read some of Gonegolfin's threads in "Economy" to get a better understanding of it. Right now, the monetary base, which consists of all bank reserves, is at an unprecedented level due to the Federal Reserve's various market actions over the past year, specifically. That money, when they finally stop sitting on it, whether it's invested or lent, is going to raise the money supply and in accordance, raise the level of inflation.

Yes, right now we're looking at deflation, because money is becoming scarce due to lack of borrowing/lending, spending, and investing.

That isn't going to last forever, especially since the Federal Reserve has been swapping debt with the banks and taking on their liabilities in lieu of liquidity. The monetary base is something like 900 Billion right now. This is going to substantially affect the money supply at some point, and inflation is going to be a major concern.

A weak dollar means commodities increase, including energy. We're going to see oil over $100 again. When XTO was at their high of ~70, it was when oil was the most expensive. Natural gas may very well be a slightly different story here, but you can't discount oil. Oil/gasoline demand will rise with inflation, and the weaker dollar will translate into more expensive goods and services.

If you don't want to listen, that's fine. But inflation is staring us right in the face. Maybe not by the end of this year, but when those banks start lending and investing again, watch out. It's not going to be pretty.

It's not that I "don't want to listen". I see what you are saying. On the one hand you said, "Yes, right now we're looking at deflation". But then you said, "Yes, inflation IS a sure bet in this case." Let me know when you've made up your mind.

I am simply looking at what is happening now. I don't pretend to be an expert. I would not be so presumptuous as to make any broad based, hard rock predictions as you have. I'm just saying I don't see any upside to natural gas right now. And I don't think anyone knows exactly what is going to happen. There are a lot of so-called experts who have lost a ton of money this past year. And there are just too many variables that have been stretched beyond their normal limits over the last few months to fully trust them to safely predict the future.

 

[Paulie]

It's not that I "don't want to listen". I see what you are saying. On the one hand you said, "Yes, right now we're looking at deflation". But then you said, "Yes, inflation IS a sure bet in this case." Let me know when you've made up your mind.

When I said right now we're looking at deflation, I'm saying right NOW, we're actually dealing with it. We're in a deflationary environment RIGHT NOW. The part about inflation is me saying at some point, and it's impossible to say exactly when, we're going to be seeing a massive increase in the money supply which means inflation. It will most likely be pretty significant. The monetary base is the tell tale sign. The Fed has no more means with which to sterilize their actions, and are left with what they refer to as "quantitative easing", which for all intents and purposes means an eventual increase in the money supply.

I am simply looking at what is happening now. I don't pretend to be an expert. I would not be so presumptuous as to make any broad based, hard rock predictions as you have. I'm just saying I don't see any upside to natural gas right now. And I don't think anyone knows exactly what is going to happen. There are a lot of so-called experts who have lost a ton of money this past year. And there are just too many variables that have been stretched beyond their normal limits over the last few months to fully trust them to safely predict the future.

If you're only picking securities based on how the market is doing NOW, you're really missing out on some great buying opportunities. The reason natural gas is a good play is because it's cheap, and it's a foregone conclusion that it's going to be a factor in the economic future. Half of Obama's stimulus is for alternative energies, green tech, whatever you want to refer to it as. You got Pickens investing his money in it, and the political environment becoming ripe for it. It's not a day trading suggestion. It's a 'buy cheap and hold' play. You could get 75-100% on this XTO over the next year or two, just based on it's price range for the year. If oil goes back up over $100, which it WILL, you HAVE to expect that companies like this are going to climb back up.

I would even go so far as to say don't buy it quite yet, because we still have some cold months to get through. Pick it up around April or May, it might even be cheaper.

You simply HAVE to learn about the monetary policy and understand what's going on with the currency. Without getting that kind of information and understanding it, you're practically trading and investing blindly.

 

[Gord]

It's not that I "don't want to listen". I see what you are saying. On the one hand you said, "Yes, right now we're looking at deflation". But then you said, "Yes, inflation IS a sure bet in this case." Let me know when you've made up your mind.

When I said right now we're looking at deflation, I'm saying right NOW, we're actually dealing with it. We're in a deflationary environment RIGHT NOW. The part about inflation is me saying at some point, and it's impossible to say exactly when, we're going to be seeing a massive increase in the money supply which means inflation. It will most likely be pretty significant. The monetary base is the tell tale sign. The Fed has no more means with which to sterilize their actions, and are left with what they refer to as "quantitative easing", which for all intents and purposes means an eventual increase in the money supply.

I am simply looking at what is happening now. I don't pretend to be an expert. I would not be so presumptuous as to make any broad based, hard rock predictions as you have. I'm just saying I don't see any upside to natural gas right now. And I don't think anyone knows exactly what is going to happen. There are a lot of so-called experts who have lost a ton of money this past year. And there are just too many variables that have been stretched beyond their normal limits over the last few months to fully trust them to safely predict the future.

If you're only picking securities based on how the market is doing NOW, you're really missing out on some great buying opportunities. The reason natural gas is a good play is because it's cheap, and it's a foregone conclusion that it's going to be a factor in the economic future. Half of Obama's stimulus is for alternative energies, green tech, whatever you want to refer to it as. You got Pickens investing his money in it, and the political environment becoming ripe for it. It's not a day trading suggestion. It's a 'buy cheap and hold' play. You could get 75-100% on this XTO over the next year or two, just based on it's price range for the year. If oil goes back up over $100, which it WILL, you HAVE to expect that companies like this are going to climb back up.

I would even go so far as to say don't buy it quite yet, because we still have some cold months to get through. Pick it up around April or May, it might even be cheaper.

You simply HAVE to learn about the monetary policy and understand what's going on with the currency. Without getting that kind of information and understanding it, you're practically trading and investing blindly.

I only daytrade. While investers like you were panicking throughout Oct./Nov. daytraders like me were making record profits in the most volatile (profitable for daytraders) market ever. I find it laughable that you think you have the inside line on what is going to happen down the road. Almost everyone was caught off guard by what has happened in the past six months. So many previous strategies that consistently worked completely failed. I wouldn't trust what you advise even if your name was Warren Buffet.

 

[Paulie]

It's not that I "don't want to listen". I see what you are saying. On the one hand you said, "Yes, right now we're looking at deflation". But then you said, "Yes, inflation IS a sure bet in this case." Let me know when you've made up your mind.

When I said right now we're looking at deflation, I'm saying right NOW, we're actually dealing with it. We're in a deflationary environment RIGHT NOW. The part about inflation is me saying at some point, and it's impossible to say exactly when, we're going to be seeing a massive increase in the money supply which means inflation. It will most likely be pretty significant. The monetary base is the tell tale sign. The Fed has no more means with which to sterilize their actions, and are left with what they refer to as "quantitative easing", which for all intents and purposes means an eventual increase in the money supply.

I am simply looking at what is happening now. I don't pretend to be an expert. I would not be so presumptuous as to make any broad based, hard rock predictions as you have. I'm just saying I don't see any upside to natural gas right now. And I don't think anyone knows exactly what is going to happen. There are a lot of so-called experts who have lost a ton of money this past year. And there are just too many variables that have been stretched beyond their normal limits over the last few months to fully trust them to safely predict the future.

If you're only picking securities based on how the market is doing NOW, you're really missing out on some great buying opportunities. The reason natural gas is a good play is because it's cheap, and it's a foregone conclusion that it's going to be a factor in the economic future. Half of Obama's stimulus is for alternative energies, green tech, whatever you want to refer to it as. You got Pickens investing his money in it, and the political environment becoming ripe for it. It's not a day trading suggestion. It's a 'buy cheap and hold' play. You could get 75-100% on this XTO over the next year or two, just based on it's price range for the year. If oil goes back up over $100, which it WILL, you HAVE to expect that companies like this are going to climb back up.

I would even go so far as to say don't buy it quite yet, because we still have some cold months to get through. Pick it up around April or May, it might even be cheaper.

You simply HAVE to learn about the monetary policy and understand what's going on with the currency. Without getting that kind of information and understanding it, you're practically trading and investing blindly.

I only daytrade. While investers like you were panicking throughout Oct./Nov. daytraders like me were making record profits in the most volatile (profitable for daytraders) market ever. I find it laughable that you think you have the inside line on what is going to happen down the road. Almost everyone was caught off guard by what has happened in the past six months. So many previous strategies that consistently worked completely failed. I wouldn't trust what you advise even if your name was Warren Buffet.

Hey, don't learn monetary policy. Suit yourself.

And I saw this housing mess coming about 3 years ago, when people like Peter Schiff and Ron Paul were still getting laughed at on the air for suggesting it. The kooks were right. Who would have thought.

 

[Gord]

When I said right now we're looking at deflation, I'm saying right NOW, we're actually dealing with it. We're in a deflationary environment RIGHT NOW. The part about inflation is me saying at some point, and it's impossible to say exactly when, we're going to be seeing a massive increase in the money supply which means inflation. It will most likely be pretty significant. The monetary base is the tell tale sign. The Fed has no more means with which to sterilize their actions, and are left with what they refer to as "quantitative easing", which for all intents and purposes means an eventual increase in the money supply.



If you're only picking securities based on how the market is doing NOW, you're really missing out on some great buying opportunities. The reason natural gas is a good play is because it's cheap, and it's a foregone conclusion that it's going to be a factor in the economic future. Half of Obama's stimulus is for alternative energies, green tech, whatever you want to refer to it as. You got Pickens investing his money in it, and the political environment becoming ripe for it. It's not a day trading suggestion. It's a 'buy cheap and hold' play. You could get 75-100% on this XTO over the next year or two, just based on it's price range for the year. If oil goes back up over $100, which it WILL, you HAVE to expect that companies like this are going to climb back up.

I would even go so far as to say don't buy it quite yet, because we still have some cold months to get through. Pick it up around April or May, it might even be cheaper.

You simply HAVE to learn about the monetary policy and understand what's going on with the currency. Without getting that kind of information and understanding it, you're practically trading and investing blindly.

I only daytrade. While investers like you were panicking throughout Oct./Nov. daytraders like me were making record profits in the most volatile (profitable for daytraders) market ever. I find it laughable that you think you have the inside line on what is going to happen down the road. Almost everyone was caught off guard by what has happened in the past six months. So many previous strategies that consistently worked completely failed. I wouldn't trust what you advise even if your name was Warren Buffet.

Hey, don't learn monetary policy. Suit yourself.

And I saw this housing mess coming about 3 years ago, when people like Peter Schiff and Ron Paul were still getting laughed at on the air for suggesting it. The kooks were right. Who would have thought.

Don't break your arm patting yourself on the back Warren.

 

[mayya555]

And one more thing. Inflation is no sure bet. Many economists are fretting about deflation which would be much worse, creating a spiraling down of consumer demand.

With that huge amount of money being printed... I doubt we'll ever see a deflation...

 

[Paulie]

Oil was in the 20's when this thread was current, and I called $100 oil in 2010.

We're almost there. ~83 today, and the summer demand is approaching.

At this point I don't see $100, but we'll probably hit $90.