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High-Stakes Convention
Poll Shows Support for Kerry Weakens on Issues and Attributes
Analysis
By Gary Langer
July 26, 2004
The critical convention season begins with John Kerry losing momentum at just the hour he'd like to be gaining it: President Bush has clawed back on issues and attributes alike, reclaiming significant ground that Kerry had taken a month ago.
Kerry has lost support against Bush in trust to handle five of six issues tested in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll, including terrorism, Iraq, taxes and even health care. And Kerry's ratings on personal attributes honesty, strong leadership, consistency, empathy and others have softened as well.
Sampling, data collection and tabulation for this poll were done by TNS.
The bottom line has shifted only very subtly. Head-to-head, the Massachuestts senator has slipped from a slight lead in late June to a dead heat today, with 49 percent support for Bush and 48 percent for Kerry among registered voters. Including Ralph Nader, it's 48 percent-46 percent-3 percent.
No Pre-Convention Bounce
But perceptions on policy and personality are more important than horse-race standings at this stage, and there Kerry has work to do. He has a crucial chance to regain momentum as he accepts the Democratic nomination this week: Fewer than half of registered voters, 46 percent, say they have a good idea where he stands on the issues, a huge 28 points behind Bush. That represents opportunity, if Kerry can deliver a message that resonates.
And the public is listening. Not only is attention high, but 78 percent of registered voters call this an "especially important election," far more than said that in 2000 or 1996. Indeed, two-thirds say it's one of the single most important elections in their lifetimes.
Kerry's job is by no means easy. While some candidates have begun their "convention bounce" during the build-up to the event, even before their convention began, that has eluded Kerry. The past month's trend has not been to his advantage. And Bush's overall job approval rating appears to have stabilized, albeit at a tepid 50 percent.
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A mid-year White House report will tout fiscal progress with a projected U.S. budget deficit for this year of around $420 billion -- nearly $100 billion less than the forecast offered five months ago, congressional sources said on Tuesday....
...One month ago, Mr. Kerry had cut Mr. Bush's lead on who would best handle the war on terrorism to just one point, 48 percent to 47 percent.
Today, the poll shows Mr. Bush with a commanding 18 percentage point lead on that issue, 55 percent to just 37 percent for Mr. Kerry....
According to the poll of 1,202 adults conducted Thursday through Sunday, Mr. Bush earned his highest rating for his handling of the economy 47 percent in the last six months.
On who has the best tax policy, Mr. Kerry had led the president by 12 points in June, but Mr. Bush now leads on that issue 49 percent to 43 percent.
Mr. Kerry, who has made criticism of Mr. Bush's Iraq policy a key plank of his campaign, had cut the president's lead on that issue to just two points by last month. Now, Mr. Bush is trusted by 52 percent of voters to handle that issue, as opposed to just 40 percent for Mr. Kerry.
And Mr. Bush who has endured constant attacks from Democrats and a wildly successful unflattering political movie, "Fahrenheit 9/11" appears to have weathered that storm, too.
The poll shows an 18 point swing in Mr. Bush's favor on the question of who is more honest and trustworthy, and a 14 point swing on who is a "strong leader" and "understands the problems of people like you."
Christine Iverson, spokeswoman for the Republican National Committee, said she expected Mr. Kerry's poll numbers to improve after the convention, but claimed they exposed a real weakness in the Democratic candidate's campaign.
"I think that one can argue that the more voters get to know John Kerry, the less they like him," Miss Iverson said. "As people start to realize the facts, they will grow increasingly uncomfortable with him as a candidate."
Kathianne said:Oh I know it, just will take the good news where I can find it!
Kathianne said:Can't disagree with you there, wish there was SOME other party for an alternative!
tpahl said:Well since i know you will not vote Badnarik, I would suggest just not voting. It is better than giving Bush your support.
Kathianne said:That's your mistake. GW reps me on WOT, and no one else comes close. So he gets my vote and those that I influence!
