You've mangled my quotes AGAIN.. Next time I will mangle yours.. Because you're not playing nice.. And please --- before you ATTACK --- think... I may be obtuse because I expect you are following developments closer than you actually are.. I ASSUME you're up to speed on the implications of Septillion joules of energy "hiding" in the oceans. Maybe you're not.. Because the old AGW fairytale required little expenditure of knowledge to parrot.
Here is the abstract of Balmaseda, Trenberth and Kallen's "Distinctive climate signals in reanalysis of global ocean heat content":
The elusive nature of the post-2004 upper ocean warming has exposed uncertainties in the ocean's role in the Earth's energy budget and transient climate sensitivity. Here we present the time evolution of the global ocean heat content for 1958 through 2009 from a new observation-based reanalysis of the ocean. Volcanic eruptions and El Niño events are identified as sharp cooling events punctuating a long-term ocean warming trend, while heating continues during the recent upper-ocean-warming hiatus, but the heat is absorbed in the deeper ocean. In the last decade, about 30% of the warming has occurred below 700 m, contributing significantly to an acceleration of the warming trend. The warming below 700 m remains even when the Argo observing system is withdrawn although the trends are reduced. Sensitivity experiments illustrate that surface wind variability is largely responsible for the changing ocean heat vertical distribution.
And the accompanying graphic we've all seen before:
First, I would ask you to find anywhere in Balmaseda et al 2013 a statement indicating that they now believe their to be a 30-50 year lag between forcing factors and land/ocean temperatures - as you have been claiming they so state. The full text is available at
Distinctive climate signals in reanalysis of global ocean heat content - Balmaseda - 2013 - Geophysical Research Letters - Wiley Online Library
Second, I would ask you to explain in the graphic above, at points where major volcanic eruptions are noted, the almost immediate response and the brief, 1-2 year recovery, if the system as a whole contains a 30-50 year lag as you contend.
I'm surprised you didn't remember what thread we were in.. So I toyed with you a little, but at least now --- you understand my comments about the OP topic..
I'm sure the paper is not stating a lag factor for the "hidden warmth".. Trenberth has unwittingly tho opened a can of worms here. Because his personal revelation that the Earth climate has storage mechanisms was obviously new to both him and Climate community as a whole.. But this is the ultimate inference that they are making. That like charging a battery -- the warming is STILL THERE.. Unfortunately for the warmers, it's in a place right now that can't influence the weather or human conditions IMMEDIATELY. That is actually the unspoken capitualization of the paper (i have skimmed it).
But like a battery, I can measure INSTANTEOUSLY the amount of the charge that I put into it.. So seeing immediate changes due to external forcings (like volcanoes) is not surprising to me.
Surprises me that you are surprised at this surprise..
OBSERVING the act of storing is not the same as the "discharge rate" of the storage. And I imagine that eventually all this energy Trenberth originally misplaced will have to be recycled to the surface gradually where it CAN be part of the radiative and thermal exchange with the rest of the universe.. The time scales and energy flows are brand NEW to the discussion but IMPLIED by the entire premise of the work...
Let's just say this can of worms WILL get unraveled and better models might even show a trigger point where all this "hidden storage" gets suddenly swept up into dominant ocean currents and decides to melt the Arctic in one decade.. THERE WILL BE an analysis of the delayed release of this energy..
In the meantime --- studying the LAG between
natural forcings (like the substantial TSI increase since 1700) and temperature just MIGHT REVEAL a good approximation of what the discharge rate for this stored energy might be.. Don't expect you to "get" any of this unscripted science speculation until you read about it on your favorite "warmer" blog in a few years..
BTW: I predict that the climateers will also realize that the ocean is NOT the only energy storage game in town.. All those massive stores of calthrates was created by ancient energy "excesses" that also got hidden.. Created at a time when WARMTH allowed for massive bioactivity in the Arctic.
It's all part of the science that was missing all along in accounting for energy "balance". The release of the calthrates would represent an "opportunistic" lag delay of release that is a delayed function of temperature wouldn't it?
