“Kamala Harris had one of her worst days in some time in our forecast on Thursday despite gaining in our national polling average,” wrote Silver.
The forecast says that Trump has a 52.4% chance to win the Electoral College while Harris only has a 47.3% chance to win the presidency. The stats don’t add up to 100% because of the small possibility of an electoral tie. Silver explained that the model forecast took into account a bump after the Democratic National Convention and that this likely led to the prediction dropping for Harris.
“It assumes Harris’ polls are somewhat inflated right now, in other words — just as it assumed Trump’s numbers were inflated after the RNC,” he explained.