Fordow 'deep' dive

Disciple of AI?

The article delves into what you are trying to dispute.

AI is okay for getting basic info, quickly.

Just because we have over-engineered, uber expensive, casks that
can survive an earthquake, train crash and meteor strike, doesn't mean that's the only way to safely transport UO2.

Not one matched the profile of the secure, shielded 18-wheelers required by nuclear handling protocols.

Required by US protocols. So what?
 
Contamination more often than not, is found on those who handle the material, not from a leaky lid.

If they were moving this stuff under duress of being bombed at any moment -- likely not the case as they wouldn't have know we were coming -- they would make major mistakes in hygiene and proper containment procedures.

In other words, the people handling the material would most assuredly be the source and trail of any contamination.

Either way, if such a check has been done, it hasn't been leaked to the rest of the world.

Yeah, the guy scooping the powder into the plastic bin is going to "get some on him".

That doesn't mean that the car is going to be "hot" enough to be detectable at a distance.

Or the road, or the room the driver moves it into when he gets home.

The scooper's pillow might set off a Geiger counter.
 
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Not one matched the profile of the secure, shielded 18-wheelers required by nuclear handling protocols.

There is no visual evidence of loading, no convoy, no escort vehicles, no attempt to obscure or evade. In short, there is no movement that even faintly resembles a uranium exfiltration.
Duh.............
That doesn't mean that the car is going to be "hot" enough to be detectable at a distance.
How do you know?
 
It's not that radioactive.

Well, no, not in absolute terms, I mean, if you hold a piece in your hand, your flesh won't instantly burn off and you won't get sick, uranium has a half life of like 4 billion years, but it is one of the more radioactive of the naturally occurring radioactive compounds.
 
Duh.............

How do you know?

There is no visual evidence of loading, no convoy, no escort vehicles,

No little Toyotas coming and going?

How do you know?

It's not super radioactive.

1751223724115.webp


Within several meters.
 
Well, no, not in absolute terms, I mean, if you hold a piece in your hand, your flesh won't instantly burn off and you won't get sick, uranium has a half life of like 4 billion years, but it is one of the more radioactive of the naturally occurring radioactive compounds.

Right. It's not highly radioactive.
 
Well sure. This is very heavy (about as heavy as lead) metal powder that is highly radioactive that is about 75% of the way to becoming fuel grade. And the higher in enrichment you become, the easier it becomes to enrich it further. That is the whole point in our hitting the place--- it wouldn't take much to make a bomb out of this stuff, and the trick is in keeping it FROM exploding.

But the bigger point most people seem to be missing in this whole nuke affair all worried whether we damaged anything or not and whether the fuel was there or not is the simple fact that between blowing up Fordow and Israel's first attack where they took out a number of top military and scientists is that, most everyone in Iran who was key in their understanding of making nuclear bombs is now dead.

it wouldn't take much to make a bomb out of this stuff, and the trick is in keeping it FROM exploding.

That's not the trick.
 
No little Toyotas coming and going?
What did the article say about any vehicle movement being observed?

There is not a single satellite image, civilian witness, or even Iranian media report to support such a convoy ever departing Fordow.

Instead, what satellite imagery showed were a couple of dozen surface-level construction workers, laborers moving dirt, cement, and steel. There were no cranes, no forklifts, no elevators in operation. The equipment needed to safely and efficiently transfer nuclear material was not in place. Under such circumstances, even if Iran had foolishly attempted to begin such a transfer, it could have taken a week or more to complete. And even then, the trucks required to carry the uranium were simply not there.

This is not a job that begins with a backhoe and ends with a shovel. It is not something one does in a panic, or covertly. It requires discipline, coordination, and visible machinery. It is a logistical symphony, not a sleight-of-hand. And yet, in the days leading up to the airstrike, no such operation was visible. Instead, what we saw were trucks hauling cement and bulldozers covering vents, a last-minute attempt to bolster the fortification, not empty it.

Nor would it make strategic sense for Iran to move the uranium. Had it been relocated, any new site would, by definition, be less protected than Fordow. Even if dispersed into multiple civilian facilities or mobile units, the movement itself would expose the material to satellite surveillance and immediate destruction. Given the increasingly tight Israeli and US ISR (intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance) coverage, any convoy carrying nuclear material would have been a ripe and legally justifiable target for drone strikes.
 
Well sure. This is very heavy (about as heavy as lead) metal powder that is highly radioactive that is about 75% of the way to becoming fuel grade. And the higher in enrichment you become, the easier it becomes to enrich it further. That is the whole point in our hitting the place--- it wouldn't take much to make a bomb out of this stuff, and the trick is in keeping it FROM exploding.

But the bigger point most people seem to be missing in this whole nuke affair all worried whether we damaged anything or not and whether the fuel was there or not is the simple fact that between blowing up Fordow and Israel's first attack where they took out a number of top military and scientists is that, most everyone in Iran who was key in their understanding of making nuclear bombs is now dead.
This just in:

Dead Iranian scientists don’t make bombs.
 
What did the article say about any vehicle movement being observed?

There is not a single satellite image, civilian witness, or even Iranian media report to support such a convoy ever departing Fordow.

Instead, what satellite imagery showed were a couple of dozen surface-level construction workers, laborers moving dirt, cement, and steel. There were no cranes, no forklifts, no elevators in operation. The equipment needed to safely and efficiently transfer nuclear material was not in place. Under such circumstances, even if Iran had foolishly attempted to begin such a transfer, it could have taken a week or more to complete. And even then, the trucks required to carry the uranium were simply not there.

This is not a job that begins with a backhoe and ends with a shovel. It is not something one does in a panic, or covertly. It requires discipline, coordination, and visible machinery. It is a logistical symphony, not a sleight-of-hand. And yet, in the days leading up to the airstrike, no such operation was visible. Instead, what we saw were trucks hauling cement and bulldozers covering vents, a last-minute attempt to bolster the fortification, not empty it.

Nor would it make strategic sense for Iran to move the uranium. Had it been relocated, any new site would, by definition, be less protected than Fordow. Even if dispersed into multiple civilian facilities or mobile units, the movement itself would expose the material to satellite surveillance and immediate destruction. Given the increasingly tight Israeli and US ISR (intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance) coverage, any convoy carrying nuclear material would have been a ripe and legally justifiable target for drone strikes.

There is not a single satellite image, civilian witness, or even Iranian media report to support such a convoy ever departing Fordow.

Right.
Did 30 Toyotas come and go?

The equipment needed to safely and efficiently transfer nuclear material was not in place.

Did 30 guys walk out with boxes?
 
Now you're down to beer empty cases...... :lol:

This was one of the most watched sites by various intel assets.

Your guys with beer cases in Yota's would have become targets.

They watched every car that came and left?
Followed them until they got home?
Sweet!
 
They watched every car that came and left?
Followed them until they got home?
Sweet!
What was it, General Caine said, his people had been working and watching that site for 15 years. Mossad had boots for sometime also.

Guarantee it was being closely watched through the 60 day and before time frame.

Not to mention Israeli intel.

So you're claiming our and Israels intel assets failed?
 
15th post
They watched every car that came and left?
Followed them until they got home?
Sweet!
If you spy a bunch of vehicles not being loaded with anything proceed to drive away, you can safely and reliably conclude the vehicles aren’t sneaking out any nuclear material.

Empty to start is empty at the end.
 
What was it, General Caine said, his people had been working and watching that site for 15 years. Mossad had boots for sometime also.

Guarantee it was being closely watched through the 60 day and before time frame.

Not to mention Israeli intel.

So you're claiming our and Israels intel assets failed?

Right, they know what was in every box that left the place.

DURR
 

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