FiveThirtyEight averages the polls on whether to Impeach Donald Trump

[AzogtheDefiler]

538 are you serious?

Some of 538's greatest hits:

Why Donald Trump Isn’t a Real Candidate, In One Chart

June 16, 2015

Taking into account name recognition, Trump’s net favorability rating (favorable minus unfavorable) of -32 percentage points stands out for its pure terribleness at this point in the campaign. Like his unfavorable rating, it is by far the worst of the 106 presidential candidates since 1980 who are in our database.

For this reason alone, Trump has a better chance of cameoing in another “Home Alone” movie with Macaulay Culkin — or playing in the NBA Finals — than winning the Republican nomination.

Donald Trump Is The World’s Greatest Troll
July 20, 2015

Trump has taken trolling to the next level by being willing to offend members of his own party. Ordinarily, this would be a counterproductive strategy. In a 16-candidate field, however, you can be in first place with 15 or 20 percent of the vote — even if the other 80 or 85 percent of voters hate your guts.

In the long run — as our experience with past trolls shows — Trump’s support will probably fade. Or at least, given his high unfavorable ratings, it will plateau, and other candidates will surpass him as the rest of the field consolidates.

August 5th podcast
Nate Silver predicted that Donald Trump had a 2 percent chance of winning the nomination. Katherine Miller of Buzzfeed put it at 0 percent. And FiveThirtyEight’s Harry Enten? Negative 10 percent.

View attachment 284694
Donald Trump Is Winning the Polls—And Losing the Nomination
August 11, 2015

At FiveThirtyEight, however, we’re fairly agnostic about what will happen to Trump’s polling in the near term. It’s possible that he’s already peaked — or that he’ll hold his support all the way through Iowa and New Hampshire, possibly even winning one or two early states, as similar candidates like Pat Buchanan and Newt Gingrich have in the past. Our emphatic prediction is simply that Trump will not win the nomination. It’s not even clear that he’s trying to do so.

Was the Second Debate The Beginning of the End For Donald Trump?
September 24, 2015

Donald Trump: The polls clearly show Trump losing ground after his showdown with Fiorina. Even though a number of Republicans thought he won the debate, a larger percentage of Republicans said he did the worst job in it. Zogby was the only poll that had Trump gaining ground after the debate, and Zogby’s Internet polls earned an “F” in the FiveThirtyEight pollster ratings. One cautionary note, though: Polls after the first debate also found Trump falling, but that drop didn’t last.

And on and on it goes, wishcasting dressed up as "scientific, super smart, data analysis".

Nate Silver's Very Very Wrong Predictions About Donald Trump Are Terrifying

WARNING LIGHTS ARE FLASHING DOWN IN NARRATIVE CONTROL: Brutal wipeout for Democrats in Louisiana, and the press trying to keep it quiet.

Well:

Its not a 538 poll. Its just an average of all the polling data done by other polling companies including FOX NEWS and assmussen.

Fox News isn't much of a polling outfit.

And they don't just average the polls, they do quite a bit of massaging and adjusting. Like everyone else, the further we are from the election, the more they over state the Democrat result and understate the Republican result.

Does not matter, because it includes all the polls, not just FOX.

Does not matter-True all, but the media has chosen to remove our president and there is nothing we can do about it.

That is certainly what many Trumpsters will be lamenting on November 3, 2020. Got to have an excuse.

If the country wants to move toward Socialism then who am I to stop it? Even Zuckerberg hates Warren and he is very Left. You think Warren is such a shoe in? Then do you agree to never post on this board again if she loses? Seems fair?

 

[Third Party]

538 are you serious?

Some of 538's greatest hits:

Why Donald Trump Isn’t a Real Candidate, In One Chart

June 16, 2015

Taking into account name recognition, Trump’s net favorability rating (favorable minus unfavorable) of -32 percentage points stands out for its pure terribleness at this point in the campaign. Like his unfavorable rating, it is by far the worst of the 106 presidential candidates since 1980 who are in our database.

For this reason alone, Trump has a better chance of cameoing in another “Home Alone” movie with Macaulay Culkin — or playing in the NBA Finals — than winning the Republican nomination.

Donald Trump Is The World’s Greatest Troll
July 20, 2015

Trump has taken trolling to the next level by being willing to offend members of his own party. Ordinarily, this would be a counterproductive strategy. In a 16-candidate field, however, you can be in first place with 15 or 20 percent of the vote — even if the other 80 or 85 percent of voters hate your guts.

In the long run — as our experience with past trolls shows — Trump’s support will probably fade. Or at least, given his high unfavorable ratings, it will plateau, and other candidates will surpass him as the rest of the field consolidates.

August 5th podcast
Nate Silver predicted that Donald Trump had a 2 percent chance of winning the nomination. Katherine Miller of Buzzfeed put it at 0 percent. And FiveThirtyEight’s Harry Enten? Negative 10 percent.

View attachment 284694
Donald Trump Is Winning the Polls—And Losing the Nomination
August 11, 2015

At FiveThirtyEight, however, we’re fairly agnostic about what will happen to Trump’s polling in the near term. It’s possible that he’s already peaked — or that he’ll hold his support all the way through Iowa and New Hampshire, possibly even winning one or two early states, as similar candidates like Pat Buchanan and Newt Gingrich have in the past. Our emphatic prediction is simply that Trump will not win the nomination. It’s not even clear that he’s trying to do so.

Was the Second Debate The Beginning of the End For Donald Trump?
September 24, 2015

Donald Trump: The polls clearly show Trump losing ground after his showdown with Fiorina. Even though a number of Republicans thought he won the debate, a larger percentage of Republicans said he did the worst job in it. Zogby was the only poll that had Trump gaining ground after the debate, and Zogby’s Internet polls earned an “F” in the FiveThirtyEight pollster ratings. One cautionary note, though: Polls after the first debate also found Trump falling, but that drop didn’t last.

And on and on it goes, wishcasting dressed up as "scientific, super smart, data analysis".

Nate Silver's Very Very Wrong Predictions About Donald Trump Are Terrifying

WARNING LIGHTS ARE FLASHING DOWN IN NARRATIVE CONTROL: Brutal wipeout for Democrats in Louisiana, and the press trying to keep it quiet.

Well:

Its not a 538 poll. Its just an average of all the polling data done by other polling companies including FOX NEWS and assmussen.

Fox News isn't much of a polling outfit.

And they don't just average the polls, they do quite a bit of massaging and adjusting. Like everyone else, the further we are from the election, the more they over state the Democrat result and understate the Republican result.

Does not matter, because it includes all the polls, not just FOX.

Does not matter-True all, but the media has chosen to remove our president and there is nothing we can do about it.

That is certainly what many Trumpsters will be lamenting on November 3, 2020. Got to have an excuse.

THAT is the reality-your vote and my vote was made null and void by CNN. Live with that! And if you are ok with that, then you are a wimp.

 

[Zorro!]

Sorry, but you get a far more accurate picture from polling that is representative of the entire population as opposed to a rally that only includes hardcore Trump supporters.

Then how do you explain the 2016 election results?

Hillary Clinton was predicted by the polls to when the popular vote by 3 percentage points. She won it by 2 percentage points instead. Only a rare fluke of the Electoral College allowed Trump to eek out a marginal victory with only a combined 77,000 votes in three states being the tiny thin difference in his weak and lucky win.

538 used in-state polling and reversed the ECV results. The Electoral College is not a "fluke" it's the US Presidential Electorate and has been since the framing of the nation over 200 years ago. EVERY US President has been elected by the Electoral College.

Hillary had been in how many elections and she never figured this out? She was too dumb to be President. Trump, being a very stable Genius with an unusually large brain, firmly grasped the ECV in one intuitive flash.

It was a FLUKE in the sense that it is rare to win the electoral college without winning the popular vote. Its only happened twice in the last 130 years. 32 elections and only two of them where the popular vote winner was not the electoral college winner. That is the clear definition of a FLUKE! An unlikely event!

I agree but if you take out Cali he wins the popular vote too. Cali has gone so blue that I honestly cannot see Republicans winning the popular vote in the near future. Do you?

There is no point in the GOP showing up in CA, last time there was no doubt Hillary would carry the State and the Senate choices were both Democrats, so Hillary ran up several million meaningless votes in CA.

Now, if the NPV gets to 270, the CA GOP needs to turnout and the only state with more GOP voters than CA is TX. With the NPV, the CA GOP could indirectly deliver the CA ECV to the GOP Candidate as well as HI, NY and the Eastern Seaboard. But, until that happens, there isn't much point in them showing up.

 

[Zorro!]

FiveThirtyEight is averaging the polls on whether to impeach Donald Trump.

The link is below:

Do Americans Support Impeaching Trump?

This link is going to be updated hourly with the latest polls on impeachment.

The latest average on Saturday morning is the following:

49.3% support for impeachment

43.% Don't support impeachment



Its harder to take issue with this since its not just one poll, but an average of all polls that is being updated on an hourly basis. The above link is probably the best place to look to see how well cooked or not Donald Trump is going to be.

538 are you serious?

Some of 538's greatest hits:

Why Donald Trump Isn’t a Real Candidate, In One Chart

June 16, 2015

Taking into account name recognition, Trump’s net favorability rating (favorable minus unfavorable) of -32 percentage points stands out for its pure terribleness at this point in the campaign. Like his unfavorable rating, it is by far the worst of the 106 presidential candidates since 1980 who are in our database.

For this reason alone, Trump has a better chance of cameoing in another “Home Alone” movie with Macaulay Culkin — or playing in the NBA Finals — than winning the Republican nomination.

Donald Trump Is The World’s Greatest Troll
July 20, 2015

Trump has taken trolling to the next level by being willing to offend members of his own party. Ordinarily, this would be a counterproductive strategy. In a 16-candidate field, however, you can be in first place with 15 or 20 percent of the vote — even if the other 80 or 85 percent of voters hate your guts.

In the long run — as our experience with past trolls shows — Trump’s support will probably fade. Or at least, given his high unfavorable ratings, it will plateau, and other candidates will surpass him as the rest of the field consolidates.

August 5th podcast
Nate Silver predicted that Donald Trump had a 2 percent chance of winning the nomination. Katherine Miller of Buzzfeed put it at 0 percent. And FiveThirtyEight’s Harry Enten? Negative 10 percent.

View attachment 284694
Donald Trump Is Winning the Polls—And Losing the Nomination
August 11, 2015

At FiveThirtyEight, however, we’re fairly agnostic about what will happen to Trump’s polling in the near term. It’s possible that he’s already peaked — or that he’ll hold his support all the way through Iowa and New Hampshire, possibly even winning one or two early states, as similar candidates like Pat Buchanan and Newt Gingrich have in the past. Our emphatic prediction is simply that Trump will not win the nomination. It’s not even clear that he’s trying to do so.

Was the Second Debate The Beginning of the End For Donald Trump?
September 24, 2015

Donald Trump: The polls clearly show Trump losing ground after his showdown with Fiorina. Even though a number of Republicans thought he won the debate, a larger percentage of Republicans said he did the worst job in it. Zogby was the only poll that had Trump gaining ground after the debate, and Zogby’s Internet polls earned an “F” in the FiveThirtyEight pollster ratings. One cautionary note, though: Polls after the first debate also found Trump falling, but that drop didn’t last.

And on and on it goes, wishcasting dressed up as "scientific, super smart, data analysis".

Nate Silver's Very Very Wrong Predictions About Donald Trump Are Terrifying

WARNING LIGHTS ARE FLASHING DOWN IN NARRATIVE CONTROL: Brutal wipeout for Democrats in Louisiana, and the press trying to keep it quiet.

Well:

Its not a 538 poll. Its just an average of all the polling data done by other polling companies including FOX NEWS and assmussen.

Fox News isn't much of a polling outfit.

And they don't just average the polls, they do quite a bit of massaging and adjusting. Like everyone else, the further we are from the election, the more they over state the Democrat result and understate the Republican result.

Does not matter, because it includes all the polls, not just FOX.

Does not matter-True all, but the media has chosen to remove our president and there is nothing we can do about it.

Actually the will lose Impeachment in the Senate followed by repudiation by the US Electorate when Trump is re-elected.

Everyone is laughing at the Fake News Media and the befuddled House Democrats.

 

[Zorro!]

Do yourself a favor don't follow the polls they will lead you wrong. Take my advice watch the rally attendance.

Sorry, but you get a far more accurate picture from polling that is representative of the entire population as opposed to a rally that only includes hardcore Trump supporters.

Then how do you explain the 2016 election results?

Hillary Clinton was predicted by the polls to when the popular vote by 3 percentage points. She won it by 2 percentage points instead. Only a rare fluke of the Electoral College allowed Trump to eek out a marginal victory with only a combined 77,000 votes in three states being the tiny thin difference in his weak and lucky win.

538 used in-state polling and reversed the ECV results. The Electoral College is not a "fluke" it's the US Presidential Electorate and has been since the framing of the nation over 200 years ago. EVERY US President has been elected by the Electoral College.

Hillary had been in how many elections and she never figured this out? She was too dumb to be President. Trump, being a very stable Genius with an unusually large brain, firmly grasped the ECV in one intuitive flash.

It was a FLUKE in the sense that it is rare to win the electoral college without winning the popular vote. Its only happened twice in the last 130 years. 32 elections and only two of them where the popular vote winner was not the electoral college winner. That is the clear definition of a FLUKE! An unlikely event!

4 of the last 26 presidents, so once every 6 to 7 times. And 2 of the last 3 Presidents.

Further, it has nothing to do with winning the Presidency, so it's a meaningless associative phenomenon not a causative factor.

 

[U2Edge]

Sorry, but you get a far more accurate picture from polling that is representative of the entire population as opposed to a rally that only includes hardcore Trump supporters.

Then how do you explain the 2016 election results?

Hillary Clinton was predicted by the polls to when the popular vote by 3 percentage points. She won it by 2 percentage points instead. Only a rare fluke of the Electoral College allowed Trump to eek out a marginal victory with only a combined 77,000 votes in three states being the tiny thin difference in his weak and lucky win.

538 used in-state polling and reversed the ECV results. The Electoral College is not a "fluke" it's the US Presidential Electorate and has been since the framing of the nation over 200 years ago. EVERY US President has been elected by the Electoral College.

Hillary had been in how many elections and she never figured this out? She was too dumb to be President. Trump, being a very stable Genius with an unusually large brain, firmly grasped the ECV in one intuitive flash.

It was a FLUKE in the sense that it is rare to win the electoral college without winning the popular vote. Its only happened twice in the last 130 years. 32 elections and only two of them where the popular vote winner was not the electoral college winner. That is the clear definition of a FLUKE! An unlikely event!

4 of the last 26 presidents, so once every 6 to 7 times. And 2 of the last 3 Presidents.

Further, it has nothing to do with winning the Presidency, so it's a meaningless associative phenomenon not a causative factor.

The popular vote and electoral college are actually very closely aligned. The popular vote winner is the winner of the electoral college OVER 90% OF THE TIME! In every case where the electoral college winner did not win the popular vote, the victory was a slim one. If and when it does happen, it is RARE which makes it a FLUKE. Plus then, you have a very close election, razer thin margins in a few states.

 

[U2Edge]

Hillary Clinton was predicted by the polls to when the popular vote by 3 percentage points. She won it by 2 percentage points instead. Only a rare fluke of the Electoral College allowed Trump to eek out a marginal victory with only a combined 77,000 votes in three states being the tiny thin difference in his weak and lucky win.

He also lost some close states. Funny how you never mention that. Fluke? She was supposed to eviscerate him with her blue wall.

The BLUE wall nearly held, and was just barley cracked. That fact is going to BITE Trump hard in 2020.

Trumps popular peaked in November 2016, so he won't do any better in a state like New Hampshire that was close. TRUMP IS DONE!

That is such an unintelligent statement and coming from you it is expected. You have no idea who is going to run against him and while you're a crazy socialist doesn't mean the country wants to vote that way. If Warren or Sanders are the nominee, I believe Trump wins again. Bigly.

I have the data to back what I said up. You might finally understand my point of view on November 3, 2020, but I guess you won't even be showing up here or will probably allege some crazy conspiracy theory as to why Trump lost.

Most Americans want Trump removed from office NOW, PERIOD. Given that, any candidate the Democrats put up will beat Trump.

I am Unenrolled. I do not have an affiliation with any party. I don't trust data that is derived by you as you have a dog in the fight. You're a never Trumper Socialist.

Then stop reading and responding to my posts.

 

[Zorro!]

Then how do you explain the 2016 election results?

Hillary Clinton was predicted by the polls to when the popular vote by 3 percentage points. She won it by 2 percentage points instead. Only a rare fluke of the Electoral College allowed Trump to eek out a marginal victory with only a combined 77,000 votes in three states being the tiny thin difference in his weak and lucky win.

538 used in-state polling and reversed the ECV results. The Electoral College is not a "fluke" it's the US Presidential Electorate and has been since the framing of the nation over 200 years ago. EVERY US President has been elected by the Electoral College.

Hillary had been in how many elections and she never figured this out? She was too dumb to be President. Trump, being a very stable Genius with an unusually large brain, firmly grasped the ECV in one intuitive flash.

It was a FLUKE in the sense that it is rare to win the electoral college without winning the popular vote. Its only happened twice in the last 130 years. 32 elections and only two of them where the popular vote winner was not the electoral college winner. That is the clear definition of a FLUKE! An unlikely event!

4 of the last 26 presidents, so once every 6 to 7 times. And 2 of the last 3 Presidents.

Further, it has nothing to do with winning the Presidency, so it's a meaningless associative phenomenon not a causative factor.

The popular vote and electoral college are actually very closely aligned...

So what? Only the ECV elects the President.

The popular vote winner is the winner of the electoral college OVER 90% OF THE TIME!

So what? In 1960 the Pittsburgh Pirates won the World Series despite the New York Yankees scoring more total runs.

...In every case where the electoral college winner did not win the popular vote, the victory was a slim one. If and when it does happen, it is RARE which makes it a FLUKE. Plus then, you have a very close election, razer thin margins in a few states.

So what? Clinton, Bush and Trump all took office without a majority of popular vote. That's 3 of the last 4 presidents.

 

[whitehall]

What do you say when the democrat leadership chickens out on impeachment and the pollster tries to talk you into it? You can make a poll say anything you want. Back in 2016 they tried to suppress republican turnout with outrageous claims that Hillary would win in a landslide. Trump's rally in La. proved that he has overwhelming support and the next day the state leadership turned over to republicans. The moral of the story is that the only real poll is in the voting booth.

 

[sartre play]

Thought it was just an impeachment inquiry to see if there was solid reason too go forward? both party's have gone insane.

 

[Zorro!]

What do you say when the democrat leadership chickens out on impeachment and the pollster tries to talk you into it? You can make a poll say anything you want. Back in 2016 they tried to suppress republican turnout with outrageous claims that Hillary would win in a landslide. Trump's rally in La. proved that he has overwhelming support and the next day the state leadership turned over to republicans. The moral of the story is that the only real poll is in the voting booth.

Yup!

Dems may only take 16 states.

 

[Zorro!]

Thought it was just an impeachment inquiry to see if there was solid reason too go forward? both party's have gone insane.

It's not even that. It's faked up nonsense by a confused and increasingly unhinged Pelosi. Schiff's bizarre.

 

[AzogtheDefiler]

He also lost some close states. Funny how you never mention that. Fluke? She was supposed to eviscerate him with her blue wall.

The BLUE wall nearly held, and was just barley cracked. That fact is going to BITE Trump hard in 2020.

Trumps popular peaked in November 2016, so he won't do any better in a state like New Hampshire that was close. TRUMP IS DONE!

That is such an unintelligent statement and coming from you it is expected. You have no idea who is going to run against him and while you're a crazy socialist doesn't mean the country wants to vote that way. If Warren or Sanders are the nominee, I believe Trump wins again. Bigly.

I have the data to back what I said up. You might finally understand my point of view on November 3, 2020, but I guess you won't even be showing up here or will probably allege some crazy conspiracy theory as to why Trump lost.

Most Americans want Trump removed from office NOW, PERIOD. Given that, any candidate the Democrats put up will beat Trump.

I am Unenrolled. I do not have an affiliation with any party. I don't trust data that is derived by you as you have a dog in the fight. You're a never Trumper Socialist.

Then stop reading and responding to my posts.

I was the original poster, captain Socialist. You don’t even deny being a Socialist. Why so ashamed?

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

but the media has chosen to remove our president and there is nothing we can do about it.

Ugh this is so painfully stupid.

 

[grainbely]

FiveThirtyEight is averaging the polls on whether to impeach Donald Trump.

The link is below:

Do Americans Support Impeaching Trump?

This link is going to be updated hourly with the latest polls on impeachment.

The latest average on Saturday morning is the following:

49.3% support for impeachment

43.% Don't support impeachment



Its harder to take issue with this since its not just one poll, but an average of all polls that is being updated on an hourly basis. The above link is probably the best place to look to see how well cooked or not Donald Trump is going to be.

So...the polls are more about what might happen in reaction if the house moves forward with impeachment, arent they? The house should be acting independently from polls and public opinion if something is really rising to the level of an impeachable act. Polls come in when they are worried about re-election.

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

 

[Zorro!]

FiveThirtyEight is averaging the polls on whether to impeach Donald Trump.

The link is below:

Do Americans Support Impeaching Trump?

This link is going to be updated hourly with the latest polls on impeachment.

The latest average on Saturday morning is the following:

49.3% support for impeachment

43.% Don't support impeachment



Its harder to take issue with this since its not just one poll, but an average of all polls that is being updated on an hourly basis. The above link is probably the best place to look to see how well cooked or not Donald Trump is going to be.

So...the polls are more about what might happen in reaction if the house moves forward with impeachment, arent they? The house should be acting independently from polls and public opinion if something is really rising to the level of an impeachable act. Polls come in when they are worried about re-election.

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Crazy Nancy thinks the polls are with her, so why does she hesitate?

 

[U2Edge]

What do you say when the democrat leadership chickens out on impeachment and the pollster tries to talk you into it? You can make a poll say anything you want. Back in 2016 they tried to suppress republican turnout with outrageous claims that Hillary would win in a landslide. Trump's rally in La. proved that he has overwhelming support and the next day the state leadership turned over to republicans. The moral of the story is that the only real poll is in the voting booth.

Yup!

Dems may only take 16 states.

Not even Ronald Reagan was able to take Minnesota in 1984. If you think Trump's current sinking ship could take Minnesota in 2020, your crazy.

Minnesota
Wisconsin
Michigan
Pennsylvania
New Hampshire
Maine
New Mexico

All those seven states will be Blue in 2020. BIDEN has 5 to 10 point leads over Trump in all the polling done for these states. So BIDEN will be starting off with a minimum of 274 electoral votes. Other states that could potentially go Blue are the following:

Iowa
Arizona
Nevada
Missouri
Ohio
North Carolina
Florida

 

[Zorro!]

What do you say when the democrat leadership chickens out on impeachment and the pollster tries to talk you into it? You can make a poll say anything you want. Back in 2016 they tried to suppress republican turnout with outrageous claims that Hillary would win in a landslide. Trump's rally in La. proved that he has overwhelming support and the next day the state leadership turned over to republicans. The moral of the story is that the only real poll is in the voting booth.

Yup!

Dems may only take 16 states.

Not even Ronald Reagan was able to take Minnesota in 1984.

Minnesota was Mondale's home state, Reagan didn't put much effort into that State.

 

[Zorro!]

FiveThirtyEight is averaging the polls on whether to impeach Donald Trump.

The link is below:

Do Americans Support Impeaching Trump?

This link is going to be updated hourly with the latest polls on impeachment.

The latest average on Saturday morning is the following:

49.3% support for impeachment

43.% Don't support impeachment



Its harder to take issue with this since its not just one poll, but an average of all polls that is being updated on an hourly basis. The above link is probably the best place to look to see how well cooked or not Donald Trump is going to be.

So you think the public is behind you, impeach him, make our day. We will ram this down your throat so hard in the Senate Trial that you'll fart when you try to burp.

SHOW ME THE MAN AND I’LL FIND YOU A CRIME, MAYBE, SOMEDAY: Democrats Want to Impeach Trump. They Haven’t Decided Why.

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

49.3% support for impeachment

43.% Don't support impeachment

49.1% today, holding steady....