FiveThirtyEight averages the polls on whether to Impeach Donald Trump

[Fort Fun Indiana]

How can you have an increased result in cultism and not have an increased number of supporters you dumb son of a bitch?

Because more casual supporters become more cultish, you dumb shit. What a stupid fucking question.

 

[Third Party]

FiveThirtyEight is averaging the polls on whether to impeach Donald Trump.

The link is below:

Do Americans Support Impeaching Trump?

This link is going to be updated hourly with the latest polls on impeachment.

The latest average on Saturday morning is the following:

49.3% support for impeachment

43.% Don't support impeachment



Its harder to take issue with this since its not just one poll, but an average of all polls that is being updated on an hourly basis. The above link is probably the best place to look to see how well cooked or not Donald Trump is going to be.

You don't have a job or a girlfriend do you?

 

[22lcidw]

LOL AND EVEN LESS ARE POLLED NOW WHAT?

All that matters is that you have scientific representative sample for the country. Most polls do.

Do yourself a favor don't follow the polls they will lead you wrong. Take my advice watch the rally attendance.

Sorry, but you get a far more accurate picture from polling that is representative of the entire population as opposed to a rally that only includes hardcore Trump supporters.

Then how do you explain the 2016 election results?

Hillary Clinton was predicted by the polls to when the popular vote by 3 percentage points. She won it by 2 percentage points instead. Only a rare fluke of the Electoral College allowed Trump to eek out a marginal victory with only a combined 77,000 votes in three states being the tiny thin difference in his weak and lucky win.

But you are not including the millions of stolen/fake votes she received.

 

[Zorro!]

LOL AND EVEN LESS ARE POLLED NOW WHAT?

All that matters is that you have scientific representative sample for the country. Most polls do.

Do yourself a favor don't follow the polls they will lead you wrong. Take my advice watch the rally attendance.

Sorry, but you get a far more accurate picture from polling that is representative of the entire population as opposed to a rally that only includes hardcore Trump supporters.

Then how do you explain the 2016 election results?

Hillary Clinton was predicted by the polls to when the popular vote by 3 percentage points. She won it by 2 percentage points instead. Only a rare fluke of the Electoral College allowed Trump to eek out a marginal victory with only a combined 77,000 votes in three states being the tiny thin difference in his weak and lucky win.

538 used in-state polling and reversed the ECV results. The Electoral College is not a "fluke" it's the US Presidential Electorate and has been since the framing of the nation over 200 years ago. EVERY US President has been elected by the Electoral College.

Hillary had been in how many elections and she never figured this out? She was too dumb to be President. Trump, being a very stable Genius with an unusually large brain, firmly grasped the ECV in one intuitive flash.

 

[Zorro!]

FiveThirtyEight is averaging the polls on whether to impeach Donald Trump.

The link is below:

Do Americans Support Impeaching Trump?

This link is going to be updated hourly with the latest polls on impeachment.

The latest average on Saturday morning is the following:

49.3% support for impeachment

43.% Don't support impeachment



Its harder to take issue with this since its not just one poll, but an average of all polls that is being updated on an hourly basis. The above link is probably the best place to look to see how well cooked or not Donald Trump is going to be.

538 are you serious?

Some of 538's greatest hits:

Why Donald Trump Isn’t a Real Candidate, In One Chart

June 16, 2015

Taking into account name recognition, Trump’s net favorability rating (favorable minus unfavorable) of -32 percentage points stands out for its pure terribleness at this point in the campaign. Like his unfavorable rating, it is by far the worst of the 106 presidential candidates since 1980 who are in our database.

For this reason alone, Trump has a better chance of cameoing in another “Home Alone” movie with Macaulay Culkin — or playing in the NBA Finals — than winning the Republican nomination.

Donald Trump Is The World’s Greatest Troll
July 20, 2015

Trump has taken trolling to the next level by being willing to offend members of his own party. Ordinarily, this would be a counterproductive strategy. In a 16-candidate field, however, you can be in first place with 15 or 20 percent of the vote — even if the other 80 or 85 percent of voters hate your guts.

In the long run — as our experience with past trolls shows — Trump’s support will probably fade. Or at least, given his high unfavorable ratings, it will plateau, and other candidates will surpass him as the rest of the field consolidates.

August 5th podcast
Nate Silver predicted that Donald Trump had a 2 percent chance of winning the nomination. Katherine Miller of Buzzfeed put it at 0 percent. And FiveThirtyEight’s Harry Enten? Negative 10 percent.

View attachment 284694
Donald Trump Is Winning the Polls—And Losing the Nomination
August 11, 2015

At FiveThirtyEight, however, we’re fairly agnostic about what will happen to Trump’s polling in the near term. It’s possible that he’s already peaked — or that he’ll hold his support all the way through Iowa and New Hampshire, possibly even winning one or two early states, as similar candidates like Pat Buchanan and Newt Gingrich have in the past. Our emphatic prediction is simply that Trump will not win the nomination. It’s not even clear that he’s trying to do so.

Was the Second Debate The Beginning of the End For Donald Trump?
September 24, 2015

Donald Trump: The polls clearly show Trump losing ground after his showdown with Fiorina. Even though a number of Republicans thought he won the debate, a larger percentage of Republicans said he did the worst job in it. Zogby was the only poll that had Trump gaining ground after the debate, and Zogby’s Internet polls earned an “F” in the FiveThirtyEight pollster ratings. One cautionary note, though: Polls after the first debate also found Trump falling, but that drop didn’t last.

And on and on it goes, wishcasting dressed up as "scientific, super smart, data analysis".

Nate Silver's Very Very Wrong Predictions About Donald Trump Are Terrifying

WARNING LIGHTS ARE FLASHING DOWN IN NARRATIVE CONTROL: Brutal wipeout for Democrats in Louisiana, and the press trying to keep it quiet.

Well:

Its not a 538 poll. Its just an average of all the polling data done by other polling companies including FOX NEWS and assmussen.

Fox News isn't much of a polling outfit.

And they don't just average the polls, they do quite a bit of massaging and adjusting. Like everyone else, the further we are from the election, the more they over state the Democrat result and understate the Republican result.

 

[AzogtheDefiler]

LOL AND EVEN LESS ARE POLLED NOW WHAT?

All that matters is that you have scientific representative sample for the country. Most polls do.

Do yourself a favor don't follow the polls they will lead you wrong. Take my advice watch the rally attendance.

Sorry, but you get a far more accurate picture from polling that is representative of the entire population as opposed to a rally that only includes hardcore Trump supporters.

Then how do you explain the 2016 election results?

Hillary Clinton was predicted by the polls to when the popular vote by 3 percentage points. She won it by 2 percentage points instead. Only a rare fluke of the Electoral College allowed Trump to eek out a marginal victory with only a combined 77,000 votes in three states being the tiny thin difference in his weak and lucky win.

He also lost some close states. Funny how you never mention that. Fluke? She was supposed to eviscerate him with her blue wall.

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

Fox News isn't much of a polling outfit.

Neat! But they don't actually conduct the polls. They hire a company to do it.

 

[bigrebnc1775]

LOL AND EVEN LESS ARE POLLED NOW WHAT?

All that matters is that you have scientific representative sample for the country. Most polls do.

Do yourself a favor don't follow the polls they will lead you wrong. Take my advice watch the rally attendance.

Sorry, but you get a far more accurate picture from polling that is representative of the entire population as opposed to a rally that only includes hardcore Trump supporters.

Trumps rally attendance is as big now if not bigger than it was in 2016

Still won't save Trump if he is still President on November 3, 2020.

So neo nazis leftist are going to assassinate the president? I know leftist have dreamed of that happening since 2017
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...in-one-scene-starring-trump-as-julius-caesar/

 

[U2Edge]

All that matters is that you have scientific representative sample for the country. Most polls do.

Do yourself a favor don't follow the polls they will lead you wrong. Take my advice watch the rally attendance.

Sorry, but you get a far more accurate picture from polling that is representative of the entire population as opposed to a rally that only includes hardcore Trump supporters.

Then how do you explain the 2016 election results?

Hillary Clinton was predicted by the polls to when the popular vote by 3 percentage points. She won it by 2 percentage points instead. Only a rare fluke of the Electoral College allowed Trump to eek out a marginal victory with only a combined 77,000 votes in three states being the tiny thin difference in his weak and lucky win.

538 used in-state polling and reversed the ECV results. The Electoral College is not a "fluke" it's the US Presidential Electorate and has been since the framing of the nation over 200 years ago. EVERY US President has been elected by the Electoral College.

Hillary had been in how many elections and she never figured this out? She was too dumb to be President. Trump, being a very stable Genius with an unusually large brain, firmly grasped the ECV in one intuitive flash.

It was a FLUKE in the sense that it is rare to win the electoral college without winning the popular vote. Its only happened twice in the last 130 years. 32 elections and only two of them where the popular vote winner was not the electoral college winner. That is the clear definition of a FLUKE! An unlikely event!

 

[U2Edge]

FiveThirtyEight is averaging the polls on whether to impeach Donald Trump.

The link is below:

Do Americans Support Impeaching Trump?

This link is going to be updated hourly with the latest polls on impeachment.

The latest average on Saturday morning is the following:

49.3% support for impeachment

43.% Don't support impeachment



Its harder to take issue with this since its not just one poll, but an average of all polls that is being updated on an hourly basis. The above link is probably the best place to look to see how well cooked or not Donald Trump is going to be.

538 are you serious?

Some of 538's greatest hits:

Why Donald Trump Isn’t a Real Candidate, In One Chart

June 16, 2015

Taking into account name recognition, Trump’s net favorability rating (favorable minus unfavorable) of -32 percentage points stands out for its pure terribleness at this point in the campaign. Like his unfavorable rating, it is by far the worst of the 106 presidential candidates since 1980 who are in our database.

For this reason alone, Trump has a better chance of cameoing in another “Home Alone” movie with Macaulay Culkin — or playing in the NBA Finals — than winning the Republican nomination.

Donald Trump Is The World’s Greatest Troll
July 20, 2015

Trump has taken trolling to the next level by being willing to offend members of his own party. Ordinarily, this would be a counterproductive strategy. In a 16-candidate field, however, you can be in first place with 15 or 20 percent of the vote — even if the other 80 or 85 percent of voters hate your guts.

In the long run — as our experience with past trolls shows — Trump’s support will probably fade. Or at least, given his high unfavorable ratings, it will plateau, and other candidates will surpass him as the rest of the field consolidates.

August 5th podcast
Nate Silver predicted that Donald Trump had a 2 percent chance of winning the nomination. Katherine Miller of Buzzfeed put it at 0 percent. And FiveThirtyEight’s Harry Enten? Negative 10 percent.

View attachment 284694
Donald Trump Is Winning the Polls—And Losing the Nomination
August 11, 2015

At FiveThirtyEight, however, we’re fairly agnostic about what will happen to Trump’s polling in the near term. It’s possible that he’s already peaked — or that he’ll hold his support all the way through Iowa and New Hampshire, possibly even winning one or two early states, as similar candidates like Pat Buchanan and Newt Gingrich have in the past. Our emphatic prediction is simply that Trump will not win the nomination. It’s not even clear that he’s trying to do so.

Was the Second Debate The Beginning of the End For Donald Trump?
September 24, 2015

Donald Trump: The polls clearly show Trump losing ground after his showdown with Fiorina. Even though a number of Republicans thought he won the debate, a larger percentage of Republicans said he did the worst job in it. Zogby was the only poll that had Trump gaining ground after the debate, and Zogby’s Internet polls earned an “F” in the FiveThirtyEight pollster ratings. One cautionary note, though: Polls after the first debate also found Trump falling, but that drop didn’t last.

And on and on it goes, wishcasting dressed up as "scientific, super smart, data analysis".

Nate Silver's Very Very Wrong Predictions About Donald Trump Are Terrifying

WARNING LIGHTS ARE FLASHING DOWN IN NARRATIVE CONTROL: Brutal wipeout for Democrats in Louisiana, and the press trying to keep it quiet.

Well:

Its not a 538 poll. Its just an average of all the polling data done by other polling companies including FOX NEWS and assmussen.

Fox News isn't much of a polling outfit.

And they don't just average the polls, they do quite a bit of massaging and adjusting. Like everyone else, the further we are from the election, the more they over state the Democrat result and understate the Republican result.

Does not matter, because it includes all the polls, not just FOX.

 

[U2Edge]

All that matters is that you have scientific representative sample for the country. Most polls do.

Do yourself a favor don't follow the polls they will lead you wrong. Take my advice watch the rally attendance.

Sorry, but you get a far more accurate picture from polling that is representative of the entire population as opposed to a rally that only includes hardcore Trump supporters.

Then how do you explain the 2016 election results?

Hillary Clinton was predicted by the polls to when the popular vote by 3 percentage points. She won it by 2 percentage points instead. Only a rare fluke of the Electoral College allowed Trump to eek out a marginal victory with only a combined 77,000 votes in three states being the tiny thin difference in his weak and lucky win.

He also lost some close states. Funny how you never mention that. Fluke? She was supposed to eviscerate him with her blue wall.

The BLUE wall nearly held, and was just barley cracked. That fact is going to BITE Trump hard in 2020.

Trumps popular peaked in November 2016, so he won't do any better in a state like New Hampshire that was close. TRUMP IS DONE!

 

[Third Party]

FiveThirtyEight is averaging the polls on whether to impeach Donald Trump.

The link is below:

Do Americans Support Impeaching Trump?

This link is going to be updated hourly with the latest polls on impeachment.

The latest average on Saturday morning is the following:

49.3% support for impeachment

43.% Don't support impeachment



Its harder to take issue with this since its not just one poll, but an average of all polls that is being updated on an hourly basis. The above link is probably the best place to look to see how well cooked or not Donald Trump is going to be.

538 are you serious?

Some of 538's greatest hits:

Why Donald Trump Isn’t a Real Candidate, In One Chart

June 16, 2015

Taking into account name recognition, Trump’s net favorability rating (favorable minus unfavorable) of -32 percentage points stands out for its pure terribleness at this point in the campaign. Like his unfavorable rating, it is by far the worst of the 106 presidential candidates since 1980 who are in our database.

For this reason alone, Trump has a better chance of cameoing in another “Home Alone” movie with Macaulay Culkin — or playing in the NBA Finals — than winning the Republican nomination.

Donald Trump Is The World’s Greatest Troll
July 20, 2015

Trump has taken trolling to the next level by being willing to offend members of his own party. Ordinarily, this would be a counterproductive strategy. In a 16-candidate field, however, you can be in first place with 15 or 20 percent of the vote — even if the other 80 or 85 percent of voters hate your guts.

In the long run — as our experience with past trolls shows — Trump’s support will probably fade. Or at least, given his high unfavorable ratings, it will plateau, and other candidates will surpass him as the rest of the field consolidates.

August 5th podcast
Nate Silver predicted that Donald Trump had a 2 percent chance of winning the nomination. Katherine Miller of Buzzfeed put it at 0 percent. And FiveThirtyEight’s Harry Enten? Negative 10 percent.

View attachment 284694
Donald Trump Is Winning the Polls—And Losing the Nomination
August 11, 2015

At FiveThirtyEight, however, we’re fairly agnostic about what will happen to Trump’s polling in the near term. It’s possible that he’s already peaked — or that he’ll hold his support all the way through Iowa and New Hampshire, possibly even winning one or two early states, as similar candidates like Pat Buchanan and Newt Gingrich have in the past. Our emphatic prediction is simply that Trump will not win the nomination. It’s not even clear that he’s trying to do so.

Was the Second Debate The Beginning of the End For Donald Trump?
September 24, 2015

Donald Trump: The polls clearly show Trump losing ground after his showdown with Fiorina. Even though a number of Republicans thought he won the debate, a larger percentage of Republicans said he did the worst job in it. Zogby was the only poll that had Trump gaining ground after the debate, and Zogby’s Internet polls earned an “F” in the FiveThirtyEight pollster ratings. One cautionary note, though: Polls after the first debate also found Trump falling, but that drop didn’t last.

And on and on it goes, wishcasting dressed up as "scientific, super smart, data analysis".

Nate Silver's Very Very Wrong Predictions About Donald Trump Are Terrifying

WARNING LIGHTS ARE FLASHING DOWN IN NARRATIVE CONTROL: Brutal wipeout for Democrats in Louisiana, and the press trying to keep it quiet.

Well:

Its not a 538 poll. Its just an average of all the polling data done by other polling companies including FOX NEWS and assmussen.

Fox News isn't much of a polling outfit.

And they don't just average the polls, they do quite a bit of massaging and adjusting. Like everyone else, the further we are from the election, the more they over state the Democrat result and understate the Republican result.

Does not matter, because it includes all the polls, not just FOX.

Does not matter-True all, but the media has chosen to remove our president and there is nothing we can do about it.

 

[AzogtheDefiler]

Do yourself a favor don't follow the polls they will lead you wrong. Take my advice watch the rally attendance.

Sorry, but you get a far more accurate picture from polling that is representative of the entire population as opposed to a rally that only includes hardcore Trump supporters.

Then how do you explain the 2016 election results?

Hillary Clinton was predicted by the polls to when the popular vote by 3 percentage points. She won it by 2 percentage points instead. Only a rare fluke of the Electoral College allowed Trump to eek out a marginal victory with only a combined 77,000 votes in three states being the tiny thin difference in his weak and lucky win.

538 used in-state polling and reversed the ECV results. The Electoral College is not a "fluke" it's the US Presidential Electorate and has been since the framing of the nation over 200 years ago. EVERY US President has been elected by the Electoral College.

Hillary had been in how many elections and she never figured this out? She was too dumb to be President. Trump, being a very stable Genius with an unusually large brain, firmly grasped the ECV in one intuitive flash.

It was a FLUKE in the sense that it is rare to win the electoral college without winning the popular vote. Its only happened twice in the last 130 years. 32 elections and only two of them where the popular vote winner was not the electoral college winner. That is the clear definition of a FLUKE! An unlikely event!

I agree but if you take out Cali he wins the popular vote too. Cali has gone so blue that I honestly cannot see Republicans winning the popular vote in the near future. Do you?

 

[AzogtheDefiler]

Do yourself a favor don't follow the polls they will lead you wrong. Take my advice watch the rally attendance.

Sorry, but you get a far more accurate picture from polling that is representative of the entire population as opposed to a rally that only includes hardcore Trump supporters.

Then how do you explain the 2016 election results?

Hillary Clinton was predicted by the polls to when the popular vote by 3 percentage points. She won it by 2 percentage points instead. Only a rare fluke of the Electoral College allowed Trump to eek out a marginal victory with only a combined 77,000 votes in three states being the tiny thin difference in his weak and lucky win.

He also lost some close states. Funny how you never mention that. Fluke? She was supposed to eviscerate him with her blue wall.

The BLUE wall nearly held, and was just barley cracked. That fact is going to BITE Trump hard in 2020.

Trumps popular peaked in November 2016, so he won't do any better in a state like New Hampshire that was close. TRUMP IS DONE!

That is such an unintelligent statement and coming from you it is expected. You have no idea who is going to run against him and while you're a crazy socialist doesn't mean the country wants to vote that way. If Warren or Sanders are the nominee, I believe Trump wins again. Bigly.

 

[SAYIT]

FiveThirtyEight is averaging the polls on whether to impeach Donald Trump.

The link is below:

Do Americans Support Impeaching Trump?

This link is going to be updated hourly with the latest polls on impeachment.

The latest average on Saturday morning is the following:

49.3% support for impeachment

43.% Don't support impeachment



Its harder to take issue with this since its not just one poll, but an average of all polls that is being updated on an hourly basis. The above link is probably the best place to look to see how well cooked or not Donald Trump is going to be.

Rather than use polls - which as we know struggle to measure Trump's support - Moody's and others employ scientific models to predict the future, and every one I've read says Trump in 2020 ... BIGLY. No wonder the Dems are so hot to impeach.

Trump in a landslide? This historically accurate model predicts exactly that
According to Moody’s Analytics, Trump is headed toward another four years in the White House. And, if the numbers are right, it won’t even be close.
Earlier scientific modelers came to the same conclusion as Moody's.

3 forecast modelers predict Trump will win in 2020
The big picture: Trump wins all three modelers. Economists predict that the tailwind is large.

• Ray Fair, a professor at Yale, "found that the growth rates of gross domestic product and inflation have been the two most important economic predictors — but he also found that incumbency was also an important determinant of presidential election outcomes."
• "Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, has looked at 12 models, and Mr. Trump wins in all of them."
• "Donald Luskin of Trend Macrolytics has reached the same conclusion in his examination of the Electoral College."

 

[U2Edge]

Sorry, but you get a far more accurate picture from polling that is representative of the entire population as opposed to a rally that only includes hardcore Trump supporters.

Then how do you explain the 2016 election results?

Hillary Clinton was predicted by the polls to when the popular vote by 3 percentage points. She won it by 2 percentage points instead. Only a rare fluke of the Electoral College allowed Trump to eek out a marginal victory with only a combined 77,000 votes in three states being the tiny thin difference in his weak and lucky win.

He also lost some close states. Funny how you never mention that. Fluke? She was supposed to eviscerate him with her blue wall.

The BLUE wall nearly held, and was just barley cracked. That fact is going to BITE Trump hard in 2020.

Trumps popular peaked in November 2016, so he won't do any better in a state like New Hampshire that was close. TRUMP IS DONE!

That is such an unintelligent statement and coming from you it is expected. You have no idea who is going to run against him and while you're a crazy socialist doesn't mean the country wants to vote that way. If Warren or Sanders are the nominee, I believe Trump wins again. Bigly.

I have the data to back what I said up. You might finally understand my point of view on November 3, 2020, but I guess you won't even be showing up here or will probably allege some crazy conspiracy theory as to why Trump lost.

Most Americans want Trump removed from office NOW, PERIOD. Given that, any candidate the Democrats put up will beat Trump.

 

[U2Edge]

Sorry, but you get a far more accurate picture from polling that is representative of the entire population as opposed to a rally that only includes hardcore Trump supporters.

Then how do you explain the 2016 election results?

Hillary Clinton was predicted by the polls to when the popular vote by 3 percentage points. She won it by 2 percentage points instead. Only a rare fluke of the Electoral College allowed Trump to eek out a marginal victory with only a combined 77,000 votes in three states being the tiny thin difference in his weak and lucky win.

538 used in-state polling and reversed the ECV results. The Electoral College is not a "fluke" it's the US Presidential Electorate and has been since the framing of the nation over 200 years ago. EVERY US President has been elected by the Electoral College.

Hillary had been in how many elections and she never figured this out? She was too dumb to be President. Trump, being a very stable Genius with an unusually large brain, firmly grasped the ECV in one intuitive flash.

It was a FLUKE in the sense that it is rare to win the electoral college without winning the popular vote. Its only happened twice in the last 130 years. 32 elections and only two of them where the popular vote winner was not the electoral college winner. That is the clear definition of a FLUKE! An unlikely event!

I agree but if you take out Cali he wins the popular vote too. Cali has gone so blue that I honestly cannot see Republicans winning the popular vote in the near future. Do you?

Oh yes, if you just take out the largest state in the country, he wins the popular vote. How convenient.

 

[U2Edge]

FiveThirtyEight is averaging the polls on whether to impeach Donald Trump.

The link is below:

Do Americans Support Impeaching Trump?

This link is going to be updated hourly with the latest polls on impeachment.

The latest average on Saturday morning is the following:

49.3% support for impeachment

43.% Don't support impeachment



Its harder to take issue with this since its not just one poll, but an average of all polls that is being updated on an hourly basis. The above link is probably the best place to look to see how well cooked or not Donald Trump is going to be.

538 are you serious?

Some of 538's greatest hits:

Why Donald Trump Isn’t a Real Candidate, In One Chart

June 16, 2015

Taking into account name recognition, Trump’s net favorability rating (favorable minus unfavorable) of -32 percentage points stands out for its pure terribleness at this point in the campaign. Like his unfavorable rating, it is by far the worst of the 106 presidential candidates since 1980 who are in our database.

For this reason alone, Trump has a better chance of cameoing in another “Home Alone” movie with Macaulay Culkin — or playing in the NBA Finals — than winning the Republican nomination.

Donald Trump Is The World’s Greatest Troll
July 20, 2015

Trump has taken trolling to the next level by being willing to offend members of his own party. Ordinarily, this would be a counterproductive strategy. In a 16-candidate field, however, you can be in first place with 15 or 20 percent of the vote — even if the other 80 or 85 percent of voters hate your guts.

In the long run — as our experience with past trolls shows — Trump’s support will probably fade. Or at least, given his high unfavorable ratings, it will plateau, and other candidates will surpass him as the rest of the field consolidates.

August 5th podcast
Nate Silver predicted that Donald Trump had a 2 percent chance of winning the nomination. Katherine Miller of Buzzfeed put it at 0 percent. And FiveThirtyEight’s Harry Enten? Negative 10 percent.

View attachment 284694
Donald Trump Is Winning the Polls—And Losing the Nomination
August 11, 2015

At FiveThirtyEight, however, we’re fairly agnostic about what will happen to Trump’s polling in the near term. It’s possible that he’s already peaked — or that he’ll hold his support all the way through Iowa and New Hampshire, possibly even winning one or two early states, as similar candidates like Pat Buchanan and Newt Gingrich have in the past. Our emphatic prediction is simply that Trump will not win the nomination. It’s not even clear that he’s trying to do so.

Was the Second Debate The Beginning of the End For Donald Trump?
September 24, 2015

Donald Trump: The polls clearly show Trump losing ground after his showdown with Fiorina. Even though a number of Republicans thought he won the debate, a larger percentage of Republicans said he did the worst job in it. Zogby was the only poll that had Trump gaining ground after the debate, and Zogby’s Internet polls earned an “F” in the FiveThirtyEight pollster ratings. One cautionary note, though: Polls after the first debate also found Trump falling, but that drop didn’t last.

And on and on it goes, wishcasting dressed up as "scientific, super smart, data analysis".

Nate Silver's Very Very Wrong Predictions About Donald Trump Are Terrifying

WARNING LIGHTS ARE FLASHING DOWN IN NARRATIVE CONTROL: Brutal wipeout for Democrats in Louisiana, and the press trying to keep it quiet.

Well:

Its not a 538 poll. Its just an average of all the polling data done by other polling companies including FOX NEWS and assmussen.

Fox News isn't much of a polling outfit.

And they don't just average the polls, they do quite a bit of massaging and adjusting. Like everyone else, the further we are from the election, the more they over state the Democrat result and understate the Republican result.

Does not matter, because it includes all the polls, not just FOX.

Does not matter-True all, but the media has chosen to remove our president and there is nothing we can do about it.

That is certainly what many Trumpsters will be lamenting on November 3, 2020. Got to have an excuse.

 

[AzogtheDefiler]

Then how do you explain the 2016 election results?

Hillary Clinton was predicted by the polls to when the popular vote by 3 percentage points. She won it by 2 percentage points instead. Only a rare fluke of the Electoral College allowed Trump to eek out a marginal victory with only a combined 77,000 votes in three states being the tiny thin difference in his weak and lucky win.

He also lost some close states. Funny how you never mention that. Fluke? She was supposed to eviscerate him with her blue wall.

The BLUE wall nearly held, and was just barley cracked. That fact is going to BITE Trump hard in 2020.

Trumps popular peaked in November 2016, so he won't do any better in a state like New Hampshire that was close. TRUMP IS DONE!

That is such an unintelligent statement and coming from you it is expected. You have no idea who is going to run against him and while you're a crazy socialist doesn't mean the country wants to vote that way. If Warren or Sanders are the nominee, I believe Trump wins again. Bigly.

I have the data to back what I said up. You might finally understand my point of view on November 3, 2020, but I guess you won't even be showing up here or will probably allege some crazy conspiracy theory as to why Trump lost.

Most Americans want Trump removed from office NOW, PERIOD. Given that, any candidate the Democrats put up will beat Trump.

I am Unenrolled. I do not have an affiliation with any party. I don't trust data that is derived by you as you have a dog in the fight. You're a never Trumper Socialist.

 

[AzogtheDefiler]

Then how do you explain the 2016 election results?

Hillary Clinton was predicted by the polls to when the popular vote by 3 percentage points. She won it by 2 percentage points instead. Only a rare fluke of the Electoral College allowed Trump to eek out a marginal victory with only a combined 77,000 votes in three states being the tiny thin difference in his weak and lucky win.

538 used in-state polling and reversed the ECV results. The Electoral College is not a "fluke" it's the US Presidential Electorate and has been since the framing of the nation over 200 years ago. EVERY US President has been elected by the Electoral College.

Hillary had been in how many elections and she never figured this out? She was too dumb to be President. Trump, being a very stable Genius with an unusually large brain, firmly grasped the ECV in one intuitive flash.

It was a FLUKE in the sense that it is rare to win the electoral college without winning the popular vote. Its only happened twice in the last 130 years. 32 elections and only two of them where the popular vote winner was not the electoral college winner. That is the clear definition of a FLUKE! An unlikely event!

I agree but if you take out Cali he wins the popular vote too. Cali has gone so blue that I honestly cannot see Republicans winning the popular vote in the near future. Do you?

Oh yes, if you just take out the largest state in the country, he wins the popular vote. How convenient.

You mean the most populous? Largest state is Alaska. This is why there is an EC so that the largest state doesn't decide who our President will be. You should take a Social Studies class.