Final Predictions for the 2018 Mid Terms From the Experts.

[Avatar4321]

58 senate seats for the gop. Comfortable control of the House

You’re insane

What does that have to do with my prediction? My insanity has never been doubted

 

[ptbw forever]

My PREDICTION:

I will be voting a straight Democrat ticket.


I have NEVER voted a straight ticket for any party but this time things are different.

I give FULL CREDIT to Sir Jack Ass Trump.

And I have never voted for a single Democrat in my life, and my generation becomes more and more like me every single day.

If you choose to side with Antifa and the enemies of the west you will be destroyed with those groups.

 

[WelfareQueen]

Okay....the final polls are mostly in and the pundits have spoken. Here is what they are saying.


Larry Sabato: GOP keeps the Senate and gains one seat. Final tally 52-48 GOP. In the House the Dems take control and gain a net 34 seats.


Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » Final picks for 2018


Nate Silver: He says there is an 83.6% chance the GOP retains control of the Senate. He states the GOP gains one seat and the final tally is 52-48. In the House Nate is saying there is an 87.1% chance of the Dems winning the House. His final tally is 234-201 with the Dems picking up 36 seats.

2018 Senate Forecast


Nate says the Dems will have at least a 5.6% turn out advantage. If this is true that would be a major wave election. For example, in the 2014 mid terms the GOP had a 4.5% turn out advantage and crushed the Dems.


Personally I do not trust the polls. I think this election cycle is much closer than the polling indicates. I do not think this will be a wave election. The GOP retains control of the Senate and picks up at least two seats. In the House....flip a coin. 50-50 for both the GOP and Dems. We'll all see how it goes.


Now if you're brave...post your prediction here.



Sherry

From electoral-vote.com:

The current breakdown of the Senate is as follows (where we count the two independents as Democrats):

• 26 Democratic seats up for reelection in 2018 and 23 seats not up, for a total of 49 seats
• 9 Republican seats up for reelection in 2018 and 42 seats not up, for a total of 51 seats

In a reversal from 2016, the Democrats will be playing defense, trying to hold the 10 seats in states that Donald Trump won. There is only one Republican seat, that of Sen. Dean Heller (R-NV), in a state that Hillary Clinton won.

So based in your post i'm assuming you're thinking the GOP keeps the Senate. How about the House? Do you think the "experts are correct regarding the Dem takeover?

Dunno. We’ll see what happens. I’m thinking we’ll have ambiguity in the returns.

The house will be very close imho. The 36 seat pick up Nate Silver is betting on sounds a little ridiculous to me....but hey....you never know.

One thing I can predict......if the pollsters are as wrong as they were the last two election cycles all hell will break loose. I think both Dems and GOP leaning voters will be asking a lot of questions.

 

[candycorn]

Okay....the final polls are mostly in and the pundits have spoken. Here is what they are saying.


Larry Sabato: GOP keeps the Senate and gains one seat. Final tally 52-48 GOP. In the House the Dems take control and gain a net 34 seats.


Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » Final picks for 2018


Nate Silver: He says there is an 83.6% chance the GOP retains control of the Senate. He states the GOP gains one seat and the final tally is 52-48. In the House Nate is saying there is an 87.1% chance of the Dems winning the House. His final tally is 234-201 with the Dems picking up 36 seats.

2018 Senate Forecast


Nate says the Dems will have at least a 5.6% turn out advantage. If this is true that would be a major wave election. For example, in the 2014 mid terms the GOP had a 4.5% turn out advantage and crushed the Dems.


Personally I do not trust the polls. I think this election cycle is much closer than the polling indicates. I do not think this will be a wave election. The GOP retains control of the Senate and picks up at least two seats. In the House....flip a coin. 50-50 for both the GOP and Dems. We'll all see how it goes.


Now if you're brave...post your prediction here.



Sherry

From electoral-vote.com:

The current breakdown of the Senate is as follows (where we count the two independents as Democrats):

• 26 Democratic seats up for reelection in 2018 and 23 seats not up, for a total of 49 seats
• 9 Republican seats up for reelection in 2018 and 42 seats not up, for a total of 51 seats

In a reversal from 2016, the Democrats will be playing defense, trying to hold the 10 seats in states that Donald Trump won. There is only one Republican seat, that of Sen. Dean Heller (R-NV), in a state that Hillary Clinton won.

So based in your post i'm assuming you're thinking the GOP keeps the Senate. How about the House? Do you think the "experts are correct regarding the Dem takeover?

Dunno. We’ll see what happens. I’m thinking we’ll have ambiguity in the returns.

The house will be very close imho. The 36 seat pick up Nate Silver is betting on sounds a little ridiculous to me....but hey....you never know.

One thing I can predict......if the pollsters are as wrong as they were the last two election cycles all hell will break loose. I think both Dems and GOP leaning voters will be asking a lot of questions.

Whatever the results are, I just hope they are accepted. Upsetting, satisfying, agonized over, confused by, rationalized, criticized, applauded, cheered, cried about but accepted. Partisanship really doesn’t bother me. We have honest disagreements in the nation and we have passionate arguments on all sides of some issues. What bothers me is that we can’t even accept the results.

 

[caddo kid]

My PREDICTION:

I will be voting a straight Democrat ticket.


I have NEVER voted a straight ticket for any party but this time things are different.

I give FULL CREDIT to Sir Jack Ass Trump.

And I have never voted for a single Democrat in my life, and my generation becomes more and more like me every single day.

If you choose to side with Antifa and the enemies of the west you will be destroyed with those groups.

I have voted for plenty of Repubs & Dems over several decades but from here forward I will NEVER vote for a Repub, ever again.
Not even for dog catcher.

 

[LordBrownTrout]

My PREDICTION:

I will be voting a straight Democrat ticket.


I have NEVER voted a straight ticket for any party but this time things are different.

I give FULL CREDIT to Sir Jack Ass Trump.

You're not fooling anyone.

 

[miketx]

My PREDICTION:

I will be voting a straight Democrat ticket.


I have NEVER voted a straight ticket for any party but this time things are different.

I give FULL CREDIT to Sir Jack Ass Trump.

Then It's great that my vote canceled you out and my wifes put us one up!

at a birthday party Saturday, twenty folks I spoke to all said they are voting straight GOP. First time ever. I had to laugh. This is exactly what I ran into in 2016 with Trump.

I bet everyone there was white, huh?

I bet you will turn blue when I choke your little racist punk ass out.

Oh look folks; HERE we have yet another radical GOP Trumpian, ready to assault Americans.

It's a good thing the guys from the funny farm came & took all your cap guns away from you.

I bet you are a really tuff third grader, just like the Giant Orange Short Penis.

I'd bet money you ain't any kind of American.

 

[Claudette]

at a birthday party Saturday, twenty folks I spoke to all said they are voting straight GOP. First time ever. I had to laugh. This is exactly what I ran into in 2016 with Trump.

I bet everyone there was white, huh?

I bet you will turn blue when I choke your little racist punk ass out.

Oh look folks; HERE we have yet another radical GOP Trumpian, ready to assault Americans.

It's a good thing the guys from the funny farm came & took all your cap guns away from you.

I bet you are a really tuff third grader, just like the Giant Orange Short Penis.

I'd bet money you ain't any kind of American.

How can you make a bet when you're broke?

I bet if you had a gun you would be shooting up a building full of Jews & mailing pipe bombs to Democrats

Caddo,

Was it you who advised me to file for SS because I'm 66??

If so Thanks. I filed and received my first two checks.

Hope you have a great voting day.

 

[caddo kid]

I bet everyone there was white, huh?

I bet you will turn blue when I choke your little racist punk ass out.

Oh look folks; HERE we have yet another radical GOP Trumpian, ready to assault Americans.

It's a good thing the guys from the funny farm came & took all your cap guns away from you.

I bet you are a really tuff third grader, just like the Giant Orange Short Penis.

I'd bet money you ain't any kind of American.

How can you make a bet when you're broke?

I bet if you had a gun you would be shooting up a building full of Jews & mailing pipe bombs to Democrats

Caddo,

Was it you who advised me to file for SS because I'm 66??

If so Thanks. I filed and received my first two checks.

Hope you have a great voting day.

Wasn't me but cheers.

I'm off to vote here in just a few minutes. Polls here open @ 7 AM so, now open for nearly half an hour.

EVERYONE; GO VOTE!!!!!!!

 

[Claudette]

I bet you will turn blue when I choke your little racist punk ass out.

Oh look folks; HERE we have yet another radical GOP Trumpian, ready to assault Americans.

It's a good thing the guys from the funny farm came & took all your cap guns away from you.

I bet you are a really tuff third grader, just like the Giant Orange Short Penis.

I'd bet money you ain't any kind of American.

How can you make a bet when you're broke?

I bet if you had a gun you would be shooting up a building full of Jews & mailing pipe bombs to Democrats

Caddo,

Was it you who advised me to file for SS because I'm 66??

If so Thanks. I filed and received my first two checks.

Hope you have a great voting day.

Wasn't me but cheers.

I'm off to vote here in just a few minutes. Polls here open @ 7 AM so, now open for nearly half an hour.

EVERYONE; GO VOTE!!!!!!!

Thanks and I agree. EVERYONE that can vote should vote.

Hope your lines aren't to long.

 

[rightwinger]

I am more interested in what happens at the state level. Governorships and state legislatures.

They are the ones who will decide how to divide up the electoral districts after the 2020 census

It will decide elections for the next ten years

 

[Avatar4321]

My PREDICTION:

I will be voting a straight Democrat ticket.


I have NEVER voted a straight ticket for any party but this time things are different.

I give FULL CREDIT to Sir Jack Ass Trump.

You're not fooling anyone.

That’s not true. He is fooling somebody. Himself

 

[Avatar4321]

I bet you will turn blue when I choke your little racist punk ass out.

Oh look folks; HERE we have yet another radical GOP Trumpian, ready to assault Americans.

It's a good thing the guys from the funny farm came & took all your cap guns away from you.

I bet you are a really tuff third grader, just like the Giant Orange Short Penis.

I'd bet money you ain't any kind of American.

How can you make a bet when you're broke?

I bet if you had a gun you would be shooting up a building full of Jews & mailing pipe bombs to Democrats

Caddo,

Was it you who advised me to file for SS because I'm 66??

If so Thanks. I filed and received my first two checks.

Hope you have a great voting day.

Wasn't me but cheers.

I'm off to vote here in just a few minutes. Polls here open @ 7 AM so, now open for nearly half an hour.

EVERYONE; GO VOTE!!!!!!!

No thank you. I have no plans to vote today

 

[Avatar4321]

I am more interested in what happens at the state level. Governorships and state legislatures.

They are the ones who will decide how to divide up the electoral districts after the 2020 census

It will decide elections for the next ten years

Would it be this one or those elected in 2020?

 

[WelfareQueen]

So I predicted the GOP would pick up two seats in the Senate. It looks like it could be as many as 4. I said the House was 50-50....flip a coin. The Dems needs 23 seats....right now they have 25 but will probably get 4 or 5 more.

I also said the polls were shit. In Indiana the real clear politics average the day of the election had the Dem Donnelly winning by 1.3 Points. He lost by 12. In Florida Nelson was supposed to win by 2.4 and he lost by .5.
In Missouri Hawley was supposed to win by .6. He ended up winning by 6 points.

I will do an in depth post regarding the polling in several days, but I can say by the 3 election cycle in a row the polls were moderately to heavily biased against the GOP. They suck.

More to follow.

 

[rightwinger]

Okay....the final polls are mostly in and the pundits have spoken. Here is what they are saying.


Larry Sabato: GOP keeps the Senate and gains one seat. Final tally 52-48 GOP. In the House the Dems take control and gain a net 34 seats.


Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » Final picks for 2018


Nate Silver: He says there is an 83.6% chance the GOP retains control of the Senate. He states the GOP gains one seat and the final tally is 52-48. In the House Nate is saying there is an 87.1% chance of the Dems winning the House. His final tally is 234-201 with the Dems picking up 36 seats.

2018 Senate Forecast


Nate says the Dems will have at least a 5.6% turn out advantage. If this is true that would be a major wave election. For example, in the 2014 mid terms the GOP had a 4.5% turn out advantage and crushed the Dems.


Personally I do not trust the polls. I think this election cycle is much closer than the polling indicates. I do not think this will be a wave election. The GOP retains control of the Senate and picks up at least two seats. In the House....flip a coin. 50-50 for both the GOP and Dems. We'll all see how it goes.


Now if you're brave...post your prediction here.



Sherry

Pretty close

The extra Senate seat were won by a percentage point in very close races that could have gone either way

 

[WelfareQueen]

Okay....the final polls are mostly in and the pundits have spoken. Here is what they are saying.


Larry Sabato: GOP keeps the Senate and gains one seat. Final tally 52-48 GOP. In the House the Dems take control and gain a net 34 seats.


Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » Final picks for 2018


Nate Silver: He says there is an 83.6% chance the GOP retains control of the Senate. He states the GOP gains one seat and the final tally is 52-48. In the House Nate is saying there is an 87.1% chance of the Dems winning the House. His final tally is 234-201 with the Dems picking up 36 seats.

2018 Senate Forecast


Nate says the Dems will have at least a 5.6% turn out advantage. If this is true that would be a major wave election. For example, in the 2014 mid terms the GOP had a 4.5% turn out advantage and crushed the Dems.


Personally I do not trust the polls. I think this election cycle is much closer than the polling indicates. I do not think this will be a wave election. The GOP retains control of the Senate and picks up at least two seats. In the House....flip a coin. 50-50 for both the GOP and Dems. We'll all see how it goes.


Now if you're brave...post your prediction here.



Sherry

Pretty close

The extra Senate seat were won by a percentage point in very close races that could have gone either way

Agreed. But I said the election would be much closer than the polls indicated and I believed the polls were shit. Most of the races were very close as you pointed out.

I forgot I predicted the GOP would pick up at least two seats in the Senate.


The key fact for both Democrat and GOP supporters is the polls are heavily biased against the GOP and are not to be trusted. Again.....I will post a lengthy post in several days after the final election results are in to break down the depth of the polling errors. For Example Gillum was supposed to win Florida by 4 points according to the real clear average. He lost by one. The senate polls in Indiana were off by 12 points. The polls are a joke.

 

[Ted Frazier]

Okay....the final polls are mostly in and the pundits have spoken. Here is what they are saying.


Larry Sabato: GOP keeps the Senate and gains one seat. Final tally 52-48 GOP. In the House the Dems take control and gain a net 34 seats.


Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » Final picks for 2018


Nate Silver: He says there is an 83.6% chance the GOP retains control of the Senate. He states the GOP gains one seat and the final tally is 52-48. In the House Nate is saying there is an 87.1% chance of the Dems winning the House. His final tally is 234-201 with the Dems picking up 36 seats.

2018 Senate Forecast


Nate says the Dems will have at least a 5.6% turn out advantage. If this is true that would be a major wave election. For example, in the 2014 mid terms the GOP had a 4.5% turn out advantage and crushed the Dems.


Personally I do not trust the polls. I think this election cycle is much closer than the polling indicates. I do not think this will be a wave election. The GOP retains control of the Senate and picks up at least two seats. In the House....flip a coin. 50-50 for both the GOP and Dems. We'll all see how it goes.


Now if you're brave...post your prediction here.



Sherry

Not bad