Fears of a Chinese attack on Taiwan are growing, and Taiwan isn't sure who would help if it happened

[Mushroom]

Russia totally support China in their Taiwan claims. I'm pretty sure, that they can even send some fighters and bombers to kill some 'Evil Americans' (or at least distract the USA from the militarisation of Ukraine).

And if they did that, they would also become a pariah nation to the rest of the world.

*looks for a mask to see if Litwin is hiding back there*

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

Such an invasion could not be made in a vacuum, and would be known long before it happened.

Yes, probably. So you suggest a military blockade. Okay, I am listening

 

[Unkotare]

Yes, maybe so, but the fact still remains that we have much to lose. Knowing that a Chinese citizen is also suffering isn't much comfort to an American who is suffering.

America would also recover much more quickly. China might not recover at all. Total economic collapse might well spell the end of the CCP.

 

[Silver Cat]

Wait a minute, Russia and China?

I read that, and was actually wondering if maybe you intended Muscovy. Because that sounded almost like what another of our deranged clueless posters would have said.

Right now Russia totally support China in its claims. If the USA attack China - there are pretty good chances, that Russia will retaliate.

 

[Unkotare]

Russia totally support China ...

Once AGAIN, Russia would not risk their ass for China.

 

[Mushroom]

And international agreements only have as much substance as they are given on any given day. We stopped recognizing Taiwan as an independent State in 1971, for example. This was politically expedient, at the time.

"Nominally".

However, there is nothing to indicate that any actual status was ever changed between the two countries. As I said, we still exchange "Ambassadors", and have "Embassies", and conduct all affairs as if they were a nation. Simply a fiction to try and keep the PRC happy.

Case in point, the 1979 "Taiwan Relations Act". Where Paragraph B is quite specific.

1. It is the policy of the United States–
   1. to preserve and promote extensive, close, and friendly commercial, cultural, and other relations between the people of the United States and the people on Taiwan, as well as the people on the China mainland and all other peoples of the Western Pacific area;
   2. to declare that peace and stability in the area are in the political, security, and economic interests of the United States, and are matters of international concern;
   3. to make clear that the United States decision to establish diplomatic relations with the People’s Republic of China rests upon the expectation that the future of Taiwan will be determined by peaceful means;
   4. to consider any effort to determine the future of Taiwan by other than peaceful means, including by boycotts or embargoes, a threat to the peace and security of the Western Pacific area and of grave concern to the United States;
   5. to provide Taiwan with arms of a defensive character; and
   6. to maintain the capacity of the United States to resist any resort to force or other forms of coercion that would jeopardize the security, or the social or economic system, of the people on Taiwan.

Technical Difficulties

www.ait.org.tw

In essence, it is a Defense Treaty, but one that puts Taiwan in a strange place under International definitions. But it is quite clear, and states that the US will use any actions taken against Taiwan other than "peaceful reconciliation" by China essentially as an act of war and will respond.

And this is a full legal "treaty", and was approved by Congress in April 1979.

 

[Mushroom]

If the USA attack China - there are pretty good chances, that Russia will retaliate.

As I said, the US would not attack China. It would simply put its forces in and around Taiwan, and if China wants to take it they will have to be the ones to attack.

You really do not get this, do you?

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

However, there is nothing to indicate that any actual status was ever changed between the two countries.

Well, refusing to acknowledge Taiwan as a sovereign nation is quite a change. A Chinese incursion in Taiwan would then not be a invasion. It would be a sovereign state rightfully snuffing out an illegal insurrection.

 

[Silver Cat]

And if they did that, they would also become a pariah nation to the rest of the world.

*looks for a mask to see if Litwin is hiding back there*

Really? Did Russia became a pariah nation after retaking Chechnya, South Ossetia, Abkhazia, Crimea, Donbass? Many nations have problems with sepatists, and many nations solve it in one or another way.

 

[Mushroom]

Yes, probably. So you suggest a military blockade. Okay, I am listening

No, not a blockade.

A blockade is something completely different, and can be an act of war.

The actual term is "exclusion zone". Or "demilitarized zone". They are not the same thing, not at all. One stops all transit, the other only restricts the kinds of transit.

There was no "blockade" of Cuba in 1962, there was no "blockade" of Iraq after the 1990-1991 Gulf War. Egypt has not been "blockading" Palestine for the past 20 or so years.

Setting a sea zone and stating that certain actions will not happen in them. It is then up to the other party to decide how far they want to push things.

And once again, do not expect the US to be alone. I can see the UK, France, Australia, Japan, Philippines, even South Korea, India, and Vietnam also taking part. Because all of them are feeling the pressure of China Militarism", and would be acting together.to try and curb it. Myself, I don't think China is so stupid to think they could go past that without repercussions.

 

[Silver Cat]

As I said, the US would not attack China. It would simply put its forces in and around Taiwan, and if China wants to take it they will have to be the ones to attack.

You really do not get this, do you?

China and Russia consider blocade and invasion as an act of war. So, they will attack those forces. May be - with nukes.

 

[Mushroom]

Well, refusing to acknowledge Taiwan as a sovereign nation is quite a change. A Chinese incursion in Taiwan would then not be a invasion. It would be a sovereign state rightfully snuffing out an illegal insurrection.

Then I suggest you go back and read the "Taiwan Relations Act". It is the law.

 

[HenryBHough]

So what SHOULD Biden do, if China invades Taiwan?

You forgot to say. Weird.

Here's your chance.

And... go

I will make an exception to my rule about not responding to assoles.

Xiden, were he an actual president, rather than Xi's hand-puppet, would have proved through ACTIONS from the beginning of his term, that America stands by its friends. He did not. If China invaded Taiwan an actual president would respond with military force to help evict the evaders and I the didn't quickly correct the situation immediately nuke the living shit out of Beijing.

Then hang every liberal asshole with piano wire from the nearest lamp post.

 

[Silver Cat]

Once AGAIN, Russia would not risk their ass for China.

No, of course. Russia will choose the lesser risk - to distract the USA from Europe by catalyzing and warming up a Taiwan conflict over the higher (from their point of view) risk - further militarisation of Ukraine. Paint is cheap, and they can paint red Chinese stars over their own marks.

Something like this Ka-52K, which China officially don't have.

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

Or "demilitarized zone".

Haha, crafty. A demilitarized zone, full of our military.

By "blockade", I meant occupying territory that the Chinese would need to use to invade Taiwan. So I think we mean the same thing.

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

I will make an exception to my rule about not responding to assoles.

Xiden, were he an actual president, rather than Xi's hand-puppet, would have proved through ACTIONS from the beginning of his term, that America stands by its friends. He did not. If China invaded Taiwan an actual president would respond with military force to help evict the evaders and I the didn't quickly correct the situation immediately nuke the living shit out of Beijing.

Then hang every liberal asshole with piano wire from the nearest lamp post.

Ooops, you whined a lot, but forgot to answer the question.

What actions?

And apparently you are too scared to answer what Biden should do AFTER a Chinese invasion of taiwan. As I am a kind and understanding guy and know not all adult humans are capable of coherent arguments, I will allow you this sissy tap out, to preserve your energy.

So... what actions?

And... go

 

[Mushroom]

By "blockade", I meant occupying territory that the Chinese would need to use to invade Taiwan. So I think we mean the same thing.

No, we do not.

A blockade is the act of actively preventing a country or region from receiving or sending out food, supplies, weapons, or communications, and sometimes people, by military force.

In other words, a "blockade" is putting a force around China, and preventing China from sending ships in and out. An exclusionary zone is to keep outside forces out of another. And it does not stop all transit, only such transit as is stated as prohibited in the creation.

Be it offensive military aircraft in the "No-Fly Zone" in Iraq, or in this case prohibiting Chinese military transit around Taiwan.

They are not the same, not at all. A blockade is an act of war, and is very different.

In the same way that an embargo is also not a blockade, or an act of war. Definitions do matter. A blockade would be putting the forces off the shore of China and telling them they could not leave. That is the exact opposite of what I said.

 

[Mushroom]

So... what actions?

And... go

Don't expect any kind of rational explanation. Some people just do not live in the real world.

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

No, we do not.

I think maybe we do. I just used the wrong word, apparently. I mean keeping the Chinese military from accessing Taiwan.

 

[Mushroom]

I think maybe we do. I just used the wrong word, apparently. I mean keeping the Chinese military from accessing Taiwan.

By creating an exclusionary zone, it then sets the "line in the sand" of which nation is the aggressor. And it also forces them to basically "put up or shut up", and a final chance to back down.

Myself, if it ever got to that point, I think it would largely be a repeat of 1962. Where the more rational heads and diplomats would be working frantically behind the scenes and trying to do all in their power to call things back. But one thing must be remembered when reading any diplomatic agreement, the words really do matter.

1. to consider any effort to determine the future of Taiwan by other than peaceful means, including by boycotts or embargoes, a threat to the peace and security of the Western Pacific area and of grave concern to the United States;

That is something that diplomats are aware of, and would be taking very seriously. The US and other nations do not use the word "grave concern" lightly. Essentially, it is a clear statement "We will go to war if needed to ensure this". In "diplospeech", "grave" is about as severe as you get, and is a strong warning to others to listen when it is used.

But by creating a line like that, it then becomes China that has to make the first offensive move. And no matter what they and others may think, "they are not all that" to use a common phrase. Their military is unblooded, their navy has little training and experience. They have little logistical reach, and would be trying to conduct a kind of operation they have absolutely no experience in. That all is a recipe for disaster on their part.

Ultimately, it does not matter what President Biden wants, he has little say. This is a treaty, and the military and Congress can do a lot even without him. That is the thing about treaties, they can take on a life of their own, as has been seen many times. Germany invades Poland, England and France have absolutely no choice but declare war and respond. The President could try all he wanted to try and order the US to stay out of it, but it is an official law under Public Law 96-8, 22 U.S.C. 3301 et seq Congress could simply draft a resolution and override what the President wants.

And politically, the President would be a fool if he tried. Because outside of outright forbidding the US military from doing its duty, his refusing to follow this law could actually get him impeached. Violating this is not the sorta-wobbly issues that most people try to bring up, his ordering the military to refuse to defend Taiwan is literally outright violating US Law. Just as if a President ordered a state to ignore Roe V. Wade and to not perform abortions.

But China would have to be the one to take offensive action. And if they were to try, then "the gloves would come off". And most really do have no idea the might of the US military if it came to that. For the last 50 years, it has largely only been involved in "Police Actions", where the rules of engagement were very limited and very proportional. That would be an outright attack, and heaven help the nation that pushed that.

Even Argentina was not foolish enough to try that kind of nonsense with the UK in 1982.