Except that the range of those who call themselves conservatives have been fairly steady.
Your argument is elitist to its core. People know who they are. Telling people that they are something different than they think is what we expect from liberals who think they know more than individuals do.
It's false logic to assume that a more conservative candidate is more appealing to moderates simply because he's more conservative. That doesn't mean moderates wouldn't vote for a conservative. But you have misdiagnosed the problem if you think just a conservative candidate is the answer.
Elitist? LOL... Hardly! I'm not telling anyone they are something different than they think, just stating a fact about sociology and the human psyche. I don't doubt that very few people think of themselves as "bad" people, but we both know the world is full of bad people. How many people have you ever met who admitted they were liars and cheats who can't be trusted? I suspect, not very many. Now either we are extremely lucky to only come across honest good people in our lives, or we understand that people aren't always honest when they describe themselves.
Conservatives, and liberals as well, have become very negatively stigmatized. This naturally causes people to not want to identify with these groups. The result is, they prefer labels like "moderate" or "independent" to describe themselves. Because of this anomaly, there is no accurate way for us to discover exactly how many conservatives or liberals there are. Very few moderates and independents are truly moderate and independent. Most of them are somewhat left or right leaning in their views and how they vote. Furthermore, most of them are conservative thinkers.
But you have misdiagnosed the problem if you think just a conservative candidate is the answer.
But results speak for themselves. In 2008 and 2012, the GOP nominated candidates who ran as "moderates" and tried to distance themselves from Conservatism as much as they could, hoping (and claiming) to appeal to the "moderate" voter. What was the result? Did they win?
Yet we can look back to the last unapologetic and unabashed Conservative, Ronald Reagan, who won two of the biggest landslides for president in American history.
To clarify MY diagnosis again... I did not say "just a conservative" was the answer. The GOP needs a true Conservative voice who can articulate the Conservative philosophy with passion and conviction. That is not "just anyone" who claims to be a Conservative.
The thing that we should be certain will NOT work, is nominating someone who is trying to "run to the middle" and be "less conservative" because what you then have as a result is someone without a core message. You end up with someone who doesn't appear to have any conviction, pandering to whomever he/she thinks will help them win.
Again, for the sake of making my point... I am 55 years old and I have never met anyone with strong political views who I couldn't tell if they were mostly left or right. It's very clinical to think there is this 'demographic' out there who are totally neutral in their thinking. This just doesn't exist, people are mostly left or right leaning regardless of how they define themselves to others.
When we break it down, most "independent" voters are conservatives and most "moderate" voters have a conservative philosophy... mostly because that is what conservative philosophy IS. Conservatism is a moderate (as opposed to radical or extreme) view.