Look at the US debt to GDP since ~1970.
Now look at the deficit as a percentage of GDP since ~1970.
From this, we can see who contributed the most to the debt as a percentage of GDP. Generally, a deficit to GDP of no more than 3% is what people say is necessary for sustainable fiscal policy.
These are the clear conclusions:
Republicans consistently increase the deficit in both bad times and good times. Democrats consistently reduce the deficit during good times.
Now look at the deficit as a percentage of GDP since ~1970.
From this, we can see who contributed the most to the debt as a percentage of GDP. Generally, a deficit to GDP of no more than 3% is what people say is necessary for sustainable fiscal policy.
These are the clear conclusions:
- Deficit as a percentage of GDP increased from 0.3% in 1970 to 5.7% in 1983. This was a period that experienced a severe recession in 1980.
- The deficit as a percentage of GDP ranged from 5.7% to 2.7% throughout all of Reagan and H.W. Bush’s terms.
- Clinton came into office in 1993 with a deficit to GDP of 4.5%. The deficit shrunk every year throughout the rest of the 1990s, ultimately reaching a surplus of 2.3% in 2000. That is a 680 bps improvement in the budget deficit.
- The US invaded Iraq in 2003, resulting in a 3.3% deficit as a percentage of GDP.
- The Bush administration reduces the deficit to 1.1% of GDP by 2007.
- The deficit to GDP increases to 9.8% of GDP in 2009 in response to the Global Financial Crisis.
- The Obama administration reduces the deficit to 2.4% of GDP by 2015 - reducing the deficit during a period of economic expansion. That is a 740 bps improvement in the budget deficit.
- Trump increases the deficit every year of his presidency, reaching 4.6% of GDP by 2019 - increasing the deficit during a period of economic expansion.
- The deficit to GDP increases to 14.7% in 2020 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.
- The Biden administration reduces the deficit to 6.3% by 2024. That is an 840 bps improvement in the budget deficit from the trough from the pandemic response - definitely overstated given the magnitude of the pandemic response.
Republicans consistently increase the deficit in both bad times and good times. Democrats consistently reduce the deficit during good times.


