JoeB131
Diamond Member
Because America is still a country that bizarrely uses an 18th century anachronism to pick presidents, we have to look at the state by state races.
For sake of this argument, let's assume Biden will get all the states Hillary won for 232 Electoral votes. Let's also assume for the argument that no matter how awful the economy gets, Trump will still 19 safe states, for a total of 123.
That leaves us with the following states in play - WI, MI, PA, NC, AZ, FL, TX, IA, OH, and GA. We can also put in there ME2 and NE2
So I will break them down into three groups.
The Ones Hillary Should have Won- WI, MI, PA - Because she didn't devote resources, because Comey sandbagged her, or because of Russian Shennanigans, Hillary lost these states. So how is Biden doing there.
Well, he's leading in all three.
This is before the full effect of Trump's Recession are hit, and Biden's still ahead. When these folks realize that not only won't they get Daddy's factory job back, they probably won't get to keep that service job they have, it WILL be worse.
Those three will put him over 278, game over, man, game over.
But wait, there's more!
Next up we have the three Hillary tried really hard for - NC, AZ and FL
Biden is competitive in those, and has a firm lead in Arizona.
If he wins those three, he will be up to 333, actually better than Obama did in 2008. Let's throw in Maine2 into that mix, and go with 334.
Then you have the Swinging for the Fences states. These are states the Democrats could potentially win. = IA, OH, TX and GA. Not as much polling data on these from RCP. But what little there is shows Biden could be competitive. Probably a lot more after the bottom completely falls out of the economy. That would bring him up to 413
he's withing 3 points in Texas
5 Points in Iowa
Actually LEADING Trump in Ohio.
Trailing him by 8 points in Georgia, but again- this assumes the economy collapses completely and Trump won't be so popular anymore.
Next up, we have
For sake of this argument, let's assume Biden will get all the states Hillary won for 232 Electoral votes. Let's also assume for the argument that no matter how awful the economy gets, Trump will still 19 safe states, for a total of 123.
That leaves us with the following states in play - WI, MI, PA, NC, AZ, FL, TX, IA, OH, and GA. We can also put in there ME2 and NE2
So I will break them down into three groups.
The Ones Hillary Should have Won- WI, MI, PA - Because she didn't devote resources, because Comey sandbagged her, or because of Russian Shennanigans, Hillary lost these states. So how is Biden doing there.
Well, he's leading in all three.
RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden
RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden
www.realclearpolitics.com
RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden
RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden
www.realclearpolitics.com
RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Michigan: Trump vs. Biden
RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Michigan: Trump vs. Biden
www.realclearpolitics.com
This is before the full effect of Trump's Recession are hit, and Biden's still ahead. When these folks realize that not only won't they get Daddy's factory job back, they probably won't get to keep that service job they have, it WILL be worse.
Those three will put him over 278, game over, man, game over.
But wait, there's more!
Next up we have the three Hillary tried really hard for - NC, AZ and FL
Biden is competitive in those, and has a firm lead in Arizona.
RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Florida: Trump vs. Biden
RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Florida: Trump vs. Biden
www.realclearpolitics.com
RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden
RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden
www.realclearpolitics.com
RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Arizona: Trump vs. Biden
RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Arizona: Trump vs. Biden
www.realclearpolitics.com
If he wins those three, he will be up to 333, actually better than Obama did in 2008. Let's throw in Maine2 into that mix, and go with 334.
Then you have the Swinging for the Fences states. These are states the Democrats could potentially win. = IA, OH, TX and GA. Not as much polling data on these from RCP. But what little there is shows Biden could be competitive. Probably a lot more after the bottom completely falls out of the economy. That would bring him up to 413
he's withing 3 points in Texas
RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Texas: Trump vs. Biden
RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Texas: Trump vs. Biden
www.realclearpolitics.com
5 Points in Iowa
RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Iowa: Trump vs. Biden
RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Iowa: Trump vs. Biden
www.realclearpolitics.com
Actually LEADING Trump in Ohio.
RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Ohio: Trump vs. Biden
RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Ohio: Trump vs. Biden
www.realclearpolitics.com
Trailing him by 8 points in Georgia, but again- this assumes the economy collapses completely and Trump won't be so popular anymore.
Next up, we have