Electoral Battle grounds

[MtnBiker]

Background: Colorado is generally considered to be winnable for the Democrats, but historically this has proven to be a solid GOP bastion. Only three times since Franklin Delano Roosevelt was President has a Democrat carried this state (Truman, Johnson, and Clinton against Bush- with a big thanks to Perot taking 23% of the tally).

Polling Data: Date Polling Company Link Type MOE Republican Democrat Margin
9/8-10/03 Colorado Democratic Party NA RV 4% Bush 42% Unnamed Democrat 35% Bush +7
12/15-16/03 Public Opinion Strategies NA LV 4.9% Bush 46% Unnamed Democrat 36% Bush +10


Punditry: Colorado may end up being a single digit margin, but the results will likely never be in doubt. Strong Advantage Bush.

Link
That should be interesting for some people(person) who dislikes Bush.

 

[MtnBiker]

I realize those polling numbers are dated. Don't worry as new number become availible I'll post them.

 

[lilcountriegal]

Hey MB... can you find these statistics for Pennsylvania?

I did a quick search to find them on my own, but I just found useless Electoral College facts... what it means, how it works, etc.

I'm actually kinda interested to see how Pennsylvania's past chalks up in this instance... PA is supposed to be one of those "can go either way" states.

I cant seem to find the info on my own...

 

[MtnBiker]

Hey you betcha Lil, here you go:

F Pennsylvania
Electoral Votes: 21
2000 Result
Gore 51%
Bush 46%

Background: Democrats have won this state 6 of the last 10 elections, with the first of Clinton's wins being attributable to Ross Perot being on the ballot (19%). Typically, the races in the Keystone state have been close. Pennsylvania started as leaning Bush last time, but has drifted to where it has a slight advantage for the Democrats. Republicans hold a 12-7 advantage in the numbers of Representatives, and hold both Senate seats. They also hold both chambers of the state legislature. The Democrats hold the major executive branch positions except for Attorney General, and have a significant registration advantage (48%-42%).


Polling Data:

Date Polling Company Link Type MOE Republican Democrat Margin
5/13/03 Quinnipiac Link 952 RV 3.2% Bush 56% Kerry 34% Bush +22
10/9/03 Quinnipiac Link 1,116 RV 3% Bush 50% Kerry 43% Bush +7
11/23/03 Muhlenberg College Link 430 RV 4.7% Bush 47% Kerry 40% Bush +7
12/14/03 Quinnipiac Link 1,092 RV 3% Bush 50% Kerry 42% Bush +8
2/18/04 Quinnipiac Ling 1,356 RV 2.7% Bush 45% Kerry 50% Dem +5
2/22/04 Keystone Poll Link 392 RV 4.9% Bush 46% Kerry 47% Dem +1
3/3/04 Pennsylvania Public Mind Link 1750 Adults 2.4% Bush 45% Kerry 47% Kerry +2
3/11/04 Survey USA Link 802 RV 3.5% Bush 47% Kerry 49% Kerry +2
3/15/04 Qunnipiac Link 1,022 RV (Nader not given as an option) 3 Bush 44% Kerry 45% Kerry +1
3/15/04 Qunnipiac Link 1,022 RV (Nader given as an option) 3 Bush 44% Kerry 40% Bush +4


Punditry: Right back into the Tossup column goes the key Keystone state. The President is showing good resiliency in the Rust Belt.

link

 

[Avatar4321]

Looks like Kerry is having problems in PA good sign. The mor Swing states Bush is strong in the better. You know i think Pat Robertson was right and Bush is going to win in a landslide...cant tell you if God actually told him that one though.

 

[lilcountriegal]

Pennsylvania started as leaning Bush last time, but has drifted to where it has a slight advantage for the Democrats

Not to mix two threads, but I believe Rendell has opened the eyes of much of the voters of the Keystone state as to what the Democraps have to offer. We'll see come election time, but my guess is Pennsylvania will go to Bush this time.

Thanks again for the link MB!!

 

[Palestinian Jew]

I'd like to see what the numbers are in colorado now that we don't have an unnamed democrat. Those PA numbers are really close.

 

[acludem]

My state of Missouri will be close as well. It's so early to try and predict anything yet. We don't even know who Kerry's running mate will be. I'm not even going to worry for another two or three months.

acludem

 

[lilcountriegal]

I'm gonna predict Kerry, with Edwards as the Veep.

However, I think they'd have a better chance if that ticket was vise-versa.

 

[acludem]

I certainly hope Kerry wins, and I wouldn't be a bit surprised to Edwards as the running mate. That'd be an awfully strong ticket.

acludem

 

[Avatar4321]

I am not so sure he is going to go with Edwards. After the poor showing of Edwards in the South im not sure Edwards would really help him that much. One of the reasons edwards isnt going to run for reelection in the Senate is because he has done such a horrible job that the people in North Carolina are pretty mad and wont vote for him.

 

[MtnBiker]

Originally posted by Avatar4321
I am not so sure he is going to go with Edwards. After the poor showing of Edwards in the South im not sure Edwards would really help him that much.

Agreed Avatar 4321, if Edwards is such a strong canidate for VP he should have done better in the South. I don't see how he add that much to the ticket, he is a one term senator.

 

[MtnBiker]

Originally posted by acludem
My state of Missouri will be close as well.

Missouri
Electoral Votes: 11
2000 Result
Bush 50%
Gore 47%

Background: Considered by many to be a bellwether state, Missouri has gone Republican in every election after 1964 except for three. Jimmy Carter beat Gerald Ford by a small, four point margin. Bill Clinton won the state twice, but both times relied on Perot taking double digits (over 20% in the first). From 1968 on, the only Democrat to break 50% in Missouri was Carter, and the only Republican to fail to get 50% absent a truly strong third party candidate was Ford.


Polling Data: Date Polling Company Link Type MOE Republican Democrat Margin
9/9/03 Research 2000 Link 600 LV 4% Bush 49% Dick Gephardt 39% Bush +10
1/29/04 Research 2000 Link 804 LV 4% Bush 45% Unnamed Democrat 40% Bush +5



Punditry: As with most states, Bush has seen the Democrat challenger(s) surging with all the publicity they are getting during the primaries. Still, this battleground state is one that is more favorable for Republican Presidential candidates than most people realize, and Bush still holds the lead by a few points. This is a state Bush must hold, as it will be difficult to imagine that Missouri would fall without other dominos falling as well. For now, this state Leans for Bush.
link

 

[Avatar4321]

Im rather interested whether California will come into play. Ive been thinking it might.

Arnold does shift the momentum.

Kerry is a weak candidate.

Nader should syphen some votes.

Republican registration in California has jumped quite a bit.

I think Bush could take it. But even if he doesnt, putting it in play would mean Kerry has to spend money there which weakens his campaign elsewhere.

 

[MtnBiker]

Good points Avatar, I'm not confident at this time that Bush will carry California. But I agree just to make Kerry fight for it will be a drain on his campaign.

 

[Zhukov]

OHIO

Electoral Votes: 20 (not too shabby)

Governor: Republican

Senators: Republican, both

2000: R - Bush (winner) [by 165,000 out of 4.7 million]
1996: D - Clinton (winner)
1992: D - Clinton (winner)
1988: R - Bush (winner)
1984: R - Reagan (winner)
1980: R - Reagan (winner)
1976: D - Carter (winner)
1972: R - Nixon (winner)

Pretty good record.

Current Job situation:

we have lost 265,000 jobs since 2001
we have lost 16% of our manufacturing jobs

Manufacturing jobs have been steadily leaving this state for decades as the population has fled south. We've lost 3 electoral votes since the Reagan years.

Our politics tend to be democratic on the local level, republican on the federal level. But as you can see we like a winner.

 

[MtnBiker]

Idaho
Electoral Votes: 4
2000 Result
Bush 67%
Gore 28%

Background: LBJ beat Goldwater by a point. That's the best the Democrats have to show here since 1948.


Polling Data:

Polling Data:

Date Polling Company Link Type MOE Republican Democrat Margin
3/17/04 Greg Smith & Associates* Link RV 6.9% Bush 55% Kerry 23% Bush +32
* Poll of just Treasure Valley (Ada County and Canyon County)

Punditry: It is a poll with a huge margin of error (probably the largest I have ever used in the ECB). It is a poll that is not even for the entire state. But when it comes to Idaho polls, beggars cannot be choosers; they are few and far between. Ada went for Bush +28% in 2000, and Canyon went for him +46.45%. Ada's turnout was about twice that of Canyon in 2000; both together comprise about 1/5th of Idaho but are fairly representative of the state as a whole. All of which is entirely too much analysis to get to the obvious. Idaho was never in question in 2000. It is not in question now. Safe for Bush

I did like this from the article on that poll, however: "Given these results, Idaho Democrats may want to rethink such recent comments such as Kerry being a partial “favorite son” given his home in Blaine County."


link
Yeah Idaho with a whopping 4 votes!

 

[MtnBiker]

OHIO:

Background: Since Truman, Ohio has gone Democrat three times. Carter edged Ford by an extremely slim margin, and Clinton won twice, both times relying on Perot heavily.


Polling Data:

Date Polling Company Link Type MOE Republican Democrat Margin
2/7/03 Ohio Poll Link RV 4% Bush 59% Unnamed Democrat 36% Bush +23
9/19/03 Ohio Poll Link RV 4% Bush 57% Kerry 38% Bush +19
3/16/04 Rasmussen Link 500 LV 4.5% Bush 41% Kerry 45% Kerry +4
3/24/04 Ohio Poll Link 632 RV 3.9% Bush 44% Kerry 46% Kerry +2


Punditry: Another nail biter, which provides no impetus to change the designation from Slight Advantage for Kerry.

While the latest poll shows a nominal lead for Kerry, after looking at the details of the poll it has to be considered to be a favorable poll for the President. For seniors (65 and over), it is an effective tie (Bush 48, Kerry 47, Nader 0). For voters age 46 to 64, Bush leads 51 to 44, with Nader a scant 3%. For ages 30 to 45, Bush again leads by a point, 46 to 45 with Nader getting a mere 2. The entire Kerry lead comes in the under 29 vote, where Bush gets only 22% (compared to Nader's 20%!) while Kerry takes 56%. This age group by far is the least likely to turn out on election day, and this is also the age group that historically is more volitile during a campaign, with their support changing often.

link

 

[MtnBiker]

Background: 2-5-3 in the last ten elections. Without Perot, it likely would have been 2-6-2. Since Lyndon Johnson, only Reagan in his re-elect has approached 60%. Michigan has gone from leaning Bush to having a slight advantage for the Democrats. Republicans have 9 of 15 Representatives, Democrats hold both Senate seats, while Republicans hold both houses of the state legislature. The state executive is split; Democrats hold the Governor and Lt. Governor positions while Republicans have the Secretary of State and Attorney General slots.

Michigan has gone from leaning Bush to having a slight advantage for the Democrats. Republicans have 9 of 15 Representatives, Democrats hold both Senate seats, while Republicans hold both houses of the state legislature. The state executive is split; Democrats hold the Governor and Lt. Governor positions while Republicans have the Secretary of State and Attorney General slots.

Polling Data:

Date Polling Company Link Type MOE Republican Democrat Margin
5/26/03 Epic/MRA Link 400 RV 5% Bush 48% Unnamed Democrat 41% Bush +7
9/21/03 Mitchell Research Link 600 LV 4% Bush 44% Unnamed Democrat 49% Dem +5
12/10/03 Survey USA Link 724 LV 3.7% Bush 53% Kerry 43% Bush +10
2/3/04 Survey USA Link 724 LV 3.7% Bush 46% Kerry 51% Dem +5
2/22/04 Epic/MRA Link 600 LV 4% Bush 45% Kerry 49% Dem +4
3/1/04 Mitchell Link LV 4% Bush 40% Kerry 46% Kerry +6
3/14/04 Rasmussen Link 500 LV 4.5% Bush 44% Kerry 48% Kerry +4
3/14/04 Marketing Resource Group Link 600 RV 4.1% Bush 47% Kerry 45% Bush +2
4/1/04 Epic/MRA Link 600 LV 4% Bush 45% Kerry 47% Kerry +2



Punditry: The newest poll does put Kerry back in the "lead", which is no lead at all, just like Bush's lead wasn't a lead at all. Slight Advantage for Kerry
link

 

[MtnBiker]

POLL RESULTS: In Michigan, Kerry's slim lead is dwindling

April 3, 2004

BY DAWSON BELL
FREE PRESS STAFF WRITER

LANSING -- The slight advantage among Michigan voters enjoyed by Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry after his triumph in the state's Feb. 7 caucuses has all but disappeared, a new poll shows.

U.S. Sen. Kerry, D-Mass., led President George W. Bush by a single percentage point, 44 percent to 43 percent, in the poll by EPIC/MRA of Lansing. Independent candidate Ralph Nader, who may not appear on the Michigan ballot, garnered 3 percent, with 9 percent undecided.

In an EPIC/MRA poll conducted Feb. 22-25, Kerry led Bush 49 percent to 45 percent. That poll did not include Nader.

link