Just a Thread on the Race... This is not about who you want or remarks about who is better this is about the race...
At the Moment:
Clinton is sitting on Lead of 4.3
Polling Data
Poll Date Sample MoE Clinton (D) Trump (R) Spread
RCP Average 9/26 - 10/6 -- -- 48.1 43.8 Clinton +4.3
LA Times/USC Tracking 9/30 - 10/6 2632 LV 4.5 44 46 Trump +2
Economist/YouGov 10/1 - 10/3 911 RV 3.9 48 43 Clinton +5
Reuters/Ipsos 9/29 - 10/3 1239 LV 3.2 44 37 Clinton +7
CBS News 9/28 - 10/2 1217 LV 4.0 49 43 Clinton +6
CNN/ORC 9/28 - 10/2 1213 LV 3.0 51 45 Clinton +6
The Atlantic/PRRI 9/28 - 10/2 609 LV -- 47 41 Clinton +6
NBC News/SM 9/26 - 10/2 26925 LV 1.0 50 44 Clinton +6
FOX News 9/27 - 9/29 911 LV 3.0 49 44 Clinton +5
PPP (D) 9/27 - 9/28 933 LV 3.2 49 45 Clinton +4
Gravis 9/27 - 9/27 3386 RV 1.7 50 50 Tie
I think the Gravis Poll down the bottom could be dropped and that will bring her to +4.8...
The controversial LA Times/USC Tracking poll (Which has value in showing where the race is going quickly) looks like it is skewed and its overall number could be removed....
That would put the race at Clinton +5.6...
Just compare Obama was +5.5 on the 7th Oct 2008 but was +7.8 by Oct 11th.... I presume that was the second debate boost...
So there is still a lot to play for Trump could come out and nail the debate on Sunday... I think if he doesn't he won't be in a position by the final debate to rehaul Clinton.
Clinton got a bump of 2% on Sunday, Trump has a mountain to climb but if Trump manages to get a win the race could be 3 pts again...
The one thing is they are starting to run out of undecided actual voters... Johnson and Jill Stein are leaking badly, loosing close to 40% and 50% of their vote from a few weeks ago.. I say they could that again by polling day... Clinton is just picking up more of them at the moment....
This is all great, but what will the turnout be like...
At the Moment:
Clinton is sitting on Lead of 4.3
Polling Data
Poll Date Sample MoE Clinton (D) Trump (R) Spread
RCP Average 9/26 - 10/6 -- -- 48.1 43.8 Clinton +4.3
LA Times/USC Tracking 9/30 - 10/6 2632 LV 4.5 44 46 Trump +2
Economist/YouGov 10/1 - 10/3 911 RV 3.9 48 43 Clinton +5
Reuters/Ipsos 9/29 - 10/3 1239 LV 3.2 44 37 Clinton +7
CBS News 9/28 - 10/2 1217 LV 4.0 49 43 Clinton +6
CNN/ORC 9/28 - 10/2 1213 LV 3.0 51 45 Clinton +6
The Atlantic/PRRI 9/28 - 10/2 609 LV -- 47 41 Clinton +6
NBC News/SM 9/26 - 10/2 26925 LV 1.0 50 44 Clinton +6
FOX News 9/27 - 9/29 911 LV 3.0 49 44 Clinton +5
PPP (D) 9/27 - 9/28 933 LV 3.2 49 45 Clinton +4
Gravis 9/27 - 9/27 3386 RV 1.7 50 50 Tie
I think the Gravis Poll down the bottom could be dropped and that will bring her to +4.8...
The controversial LA Times/USC Tracking poll (Which has value in showing where the race is going quickly) looks like it is skewed and its overall number could be removed....
That would put the race at Clinton +5.6...
Just compare Obama was +5.5 on the 7th Oct 2008 but was +7.8 by Oct 11th.... I presume that was the second debate boost...
So there is still a lot to play for Trump could come out and nail the debate on Sunday... I think if he doesn't he won't be in a position by the final debate to rehaul Clinton.
Clinton got a bump of 2% on Sunday, Trump has a mountain to climb but if Trump manages to get a win the race could be 3 pts again...
The one thing is they are starting to run out of undecided actual voters... Johnson and Jill Stein are leaking badly, loosing close to 40% and 50% of their vote from a few weeks ago.. I say they could that again by polling day... Clinton is just picking up more of them at the moment....
This is all great, but what will the turnout be like...
