| Estimated Voter Turnout by Non-Citizens | | |
| 2008 | 2010 | |
| Self reported and/or verified | 38 (11.3%) | 13 (3.5%) |
| Self reported and verified | 5 (1.5%) | N.A. |
| Adjusted estimate | 21 (6.4%) | 8 (2.2%) |
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| Estimated Voter Turnout by Non-Citizens | | |
| 2008 | 2010 | |
| Self reported and/or verified | 38 (11.3%) | 13 (3.5%) |
| Self reported and verified | 5 (1.5%) | N.A. |
| Adjusted estimate | 21 (6.4%) | 8 (2.2%) |
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Because non-citizens tended to favor Democrats (Obama won more than 80 percent of the votes of non-citizens in the 2008 CCES sample), we find that this participation was large enough to plausibly account for Democratic victories in a few close elections. Non-citizen votes could have given Senate Democrats the pivotal 60th vote needed to overcome filibusters in order to pass health-care reform and other Obama administration priorities in the 111th Congress. Sen. Al Franken (D-Minn.) won election in 2008 with a victory margin of 312 votes. Votes cast by just 0.65 percent of Minnesota non-citizens could account for this margin. It is also possible that non-citizen votes were responsible for Obama’s 2008 victory in North Carolina. Obama won the state by 14,177 votes, so a turnout by 5.1 percent of North Carolina’s adult non-citizens would have provided this victory margin.
We also find that one of the favorite policies advocated by conservatives to prevent voter fraud appears strikingly ineffective. Nearly three quarters of the non-citizens who indicated they were asked to provide photo identification at the polls claimed to have subsequently voted.
An alternative approach to reducing non-citizen turnout might emphasize public information. Unlike other populations, including naturalized citizens, education is not associated with higher participation among non-citizens. In 2008, non-citizens with less than a college degree were significantly more likely to cast a validated vote, and no non-citizens with a college degree or higher cast a validated vote. This hints at a link between non-citizen voting and lack of awareness about legal barriers