WelfareQueen
Diamond Member
People inside the GOP strategy office are telling people they are highly likely to lose the midterms bigly. Democrats lead in NJ-GOV (only close one), VA-GOV, & NYC Mayor. Trump's way underwater in all 3 places (like he is nationally) & is a drag. Historically, a sweep of NYC-NJ-VA means Dems win the House the next year.
- Presidents with approval ≥55%: average House change –8 seats (mild or even gains).
- Presidents with approval <50%: average –40 seats.
- Biden’s –9 loss in 2022 was unusually small for his 48% rating, roughly one-fourth the typical penalty.
- The 2002 Bush midterm (with 87% approval) was the only case of a president gaining seats since FDR’s 1934 midterm.
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Virginia has not elected a GOP President in over two decades. New Jersey is deep blue, and NYC is insanely blue. If Dims lost any of those races it is a catastrophe.
But Dims will lie and spin...it's what you do.


