CDZ COVID Numbers and perspective

[jwoodie]

Corona probably added less than 10% to the total death from all cause this year.

Corona probably added less than 1% to the total deaths from all causes this year (compared with last year.)

 

[Circe]

The Spanish flu already proved we need to take more serious measures unless we want to repeat historical mistakes.

No, the Spanish Influenza proved that the virus wins and we lose. That's how the world works. Despite some efforts at masks and closures in 1918, the disease did as it liked, as they all do so far until vaccines or other important measures that work are designed (clue: that means killing all the rats or mosquitoes for most serious epidemics with vectors: mask-wearing never works). This COVID seems much less serious than the Spanish Influenza, so far. The 1918 flu killed 675,000 Americans; we are up to 260,000 dead in the U.S. right now. It was at the beginning of winter in 1918 when the Spanish Flu ramped up its deaths, so I hesitate to make any happy-thought predictions now. If it turns out as bad with COVID as it was with Spanish Flu, then all the lockdowns, all the masking, all the business closures, all the lines at food banks will have been for nothing. Just adding to the disaster and the misery.

I hope people will make sure this governmental overreach with no point to it at all never happens again.

 

[Leo123]

If this is the wrong place for this post I apologize. One of the reasons I joined here was to see a balanced set of ideas about issues. I am a fiscal con/ social lib. Essentially a Libertarian. I am looking for a civil discussion on issues with libs, cons and moderates. Afterall a wise man once said "I never learned anything in a room where everyone agreed with me"
So here goes topic one. I have questions about stats and perspective.

1) Perspective on big numbers related to COVID: Do we have a proper perspective on the relationship between 1/4 of a million deaths in a country of 1/3rd of a billion people
One way to bring that into focus is that 2.8 million plus Americans die each and every year. Therefore Corona probably added less than 10% to the total death from all cause this year. Probably far less since Neil Ferguson ( the man's who's estimated first caused panic) admits that half of these deaths were among people so debilitated that they would have died this year anyway. If he is even close to right about that then COVID may raise the total deaths considerably less than 10%.

Is that enough to have taken the actions we took in terms of closing businesses, limits on the number who are allowed to congregate together, massive increase in national debt, hospital closings/near closings and restrictions on what many of us consider personal rights?

2) Chronology question: In March we were asked to take two weeks off to "flatten the curve" based upon Neil Ferguson's model using very high death rate numbers which originally predicted 2.2 million American deaths.
At about the time the two weeks ended and the vast majority of our hospitals were suffering from no business not too much. Then in early April Ferguson adjusted the death prediction to less than 10% , not by 10% TO 10% of what his Model had predicted leading to world wide lockdowns. Now the forecasted death toll for 2020 would be very close to our reported reality.

So the question is how do you justify two weeks to flatten the curve based upon an expectation of 2,000,000 deaths then after those 2 weeks double down on months of intensified lockdowns and added mask rules given the new , far better forecast of deaths being so much lower?

Agreed and, if one goes the the CDC site they'll see that the COVID deaths listed there are actually listed as "all deaths INVOLVING COVID not caused by COVID. So right off one has to question the viability of the data presented. COVID added approx. 9 to 10 percent that is true but, there is still a question if COVID was the actual cause in itself. We know that hospitals are paid more for COVID death certs as well.

 

[Donald H]

Covid-19 could be showing that Capitalism is in the process of being reset. The Dow hits a record 30,000 while businesses in America are failing at record rates, and foodlines are hitting record lengths.

Does t matter that restaurants are closing?
Does it matter that jwelry stores are closing?
Does it matter that children's toy stores are closing?
Does it matter that other non-essential goods stores are closing?

Perhaps China leads the way into the 21st. century with their emphasis on feeding 1 1/2 billion people?

Perhaps America will have to learn to adopt the same approach by rejecting greedy capitalism that doesn't serve the needs of the people?

If the Dow can hit a record high during a pandemic, perhaps the economy is in good enough shape to continue to sustain the needs of the people. All that's required is a redistribution of the fabulous wealth in America?

Is it time for capitalism to be reset?

 

[Leo123]

Looking at other means of death is irrelevant. Looking at the numbers of coronavirus deaths in relation to other means of deaths is irrelevant. The issue is the spread of the virus and its cost on a public health and economic level. If I walk up to you in the street, shake your hand, and talk with you for a few minutes, I can pass the virus to you if I am unknowingly infectious. On the other hand, if I do the same thing, I can't give you cancer, or a heart attack, or diabetes, or make you obese, or sprinkle mental fairy dust over you so that the next time you climb in a car, you get killed in a car accident. But with the virus, we know how it is spread because doctors and scientists have conducted studies and research stating that the virus is spread by droplets via exhaling, talking, singling, laughing, etc. Gather people together in large groups and you have a super spreader event. You may become sick, you may not. You may require hospitalization, you may even die. The point is, it spreads quickly and manifests itself in a way that not only are the healthcare systems overwhelmed, but the economic impact is a sledgehammer. All those people dying from other means...don't have the same public health and economic impact...because they can be absorbed by those systems.

Shutdowns became necessary back then for the same reason they might be necessary again. Because simply put, people will not do the right thing. Individual liberty is paramount in this country. There are those that can't see the short term sacrifices for gaining long term stability. The virus could be tamped down just by following the basic precautions that have been given out so far. All without the need for a shutdown.

That's a load of BS. COVID itself has not caused economic malaise the Democrat shutdowns have caused that. Your other BS that deaths by other means is 'irrelevant' presupposes that perspective is also irrelevant. If you shake hands with someone any number of pathogens may pass to your hand. Ordinarily this is no problem at all because your immune systems take care of it however, because of draconian mandates to wear masks, you will transfer whatever is on your hands to your face by taking that mask off and on, adjusting it, etc. Your callous discounting of 90% of death sby other means is just shameful, there is no other way to say it.

 

[jwoodie]

Shutdowns became necessary back then for the same reason they might be necessary again. Because simply put, people will not do the right thing. Individual liberty is paramount in this country. There are those that can't see the short term sacrifices for gaining long term stability. The virus could be tamped down just by following the basic precautions that have been given out so far. All without the need for a shutdown.

Nonsensical.

 

[Likkmee]

Covid-19 could be showing that Capitalism is in the process of being reset. The Dow hits a record 30,000 while businesses in America are failing at record rates, and foodlines are hitting record lengths.

Does t matter that restaurants are closing?
Does it matter that jwelry stores are closing?
Does it matter that children's toy stores are closing?
Does it matter that other non-essential goods stores are closing?

Perhaps China leads the way into the 21st. century with their emphasis on feeding 1 1/2 billion people?

Perhaps America will have to learn to adopt the same approach by rejecting greedy capitalism that doesn't serve the needs of the people?

If the Dow can hit a record high during a pandemic, perhaps the economy is in good enough shape to continue to sustain the needs of the people. All that's required is a redistribution of the fabulous wealth in America?

Is it time for capitalism to be reset?

Nah. Time for agenda 21. You don't think the fucks in food lines are "essential" do ya ?

 

[Donald H]

CAPITALISM RESET?

Food lines in America are said to be the longest in history.

Small businesses are closing their doors at a rate never seen before in the US and some other capitalist countries

More people than ever before are unemployed and depending on unemployment insurance schemes to survive.

And so, some questions to ask on what makes capitalism succeed and flourish? Why is the Stock Market so prosperous in this time of huge unemployment? Why is capitalism so prosperous while small businesses are failing so rapidly and in such large numbers?

Are small businesses essential to a democratic society?

Does it matter to a democracy if restaurants are closing their doors?
Does it matter to a democracy if furniture stores are going out of business?
Does it matter to a democracy if new or used car sales companies are going out of business?
Does it matter if children's toy stores are going out of business?
Does it matter if jewelry stores are going out of business?
Does it matter if any business that deals in non-essential items goes out of business?

Well, apparently it doesn't matter because the Dow shows the economy to be booming in America.

And so, is Covid-19 going to cause a reset for democracies in that we will survive by demanding that all countries share the wealth?
And is China far ahead of the curve already with their brand of capitalism under a communist regime?

What if we are looking forward to a very hard winter in which the Covid-19 pandemic sickness rate and death rate increases exponentially ahead of any vaccine or other method of controlling it? Food lines could get much longer in not just the US. And what if the Dow continues to grow?

Will that call for a reset of capitalism within Democracies?

---------------------------------------------------------

This is meant for everybody to contemplate and comment on if they choose.

 

[LA RAM FAN]

I don't believe the stats.

I've seen too many examples of blatant misrepresentations of deaths as Covid related. When a guy gets pancaked by a dump truck in an intersection coming home from a Covid test (and those results end up being negative) it's not a Covid-related death.

There are just too many similar tales like that for me to believe the numbers...

Yeah don’t believe any of the inflated numbers,they are ruling practically every death from a fatal car accident to a gunshot wound to the head as covid death,do not listen to the msm media listen to,the alternative news,there’s lot of good ones out there.one of the posters in here I know who is the most honest person you will meet,he went to the trump rally in dc where there were over a thousand people ther,neither him or any of his friends got sick.

 

[Mindful]

Small businesses are closing their doors at a rate never seen before in the US and some other capitalist countries

I see this happening every day, across the Pond.

OTOH, there’s a degree of lawlessness prevailing. Mad partying, demos in London, defiance, standing on top of telephone boxes etc.

 

[JackOfNoTrades]

Looking at other means of death is irrelevant. Looking at the numbers of coronavirus deaths in relation to other means of deaths is irrelevant. The issue is the spread of the virus and its cost on a public health and economic level. If I walk up to you in the street, shake your hand, and talk with you for a few minutes, I can pass the virus to you if I am unknowingly infectious. On the other hand, if I do the same thing, I can't give you cancer, or a heart attack, or diabetes, or make you obese, or sprinkle mental fairy dust over you so that the next time you climb in a car, you get killed in a car accident. But with the virus, we know how it is spread because doctors and scientists have conducted studies and research stating that the virus is spread by droplets via exhaling, talking, singling, laughing, etc. Gather people together in large groups and you have a super spreader event. You may become sick, you may not. You may require hospitalization, you may even die. The point is, it spreads quickly and manifests itself in a way that not only are the healthcare systems overwhelmed, but the economic impact is a sledgehammer. All those people dying from other means...don't have the same public health and economic impact...because they can be absorbed by those systems.

Shutdowns became necessary back then for the same reason they might be necessary again. Because simply put, people will not do the right thing. Individual liberty is paramount in this country. There are those that can't see the short term sacrifices for gaining long term stability. The virus could be tamped down just by following the basic precautions that have been given out so far. All without the need for a shutdown.

That's a load of BS. COVID itself has not caused economic malaise the Democrat shutdowns have caused that. Your other BS that deaths by other means is 'irrelevant' presupposes that perspective is also irrelevant. If you shake hands with someone any number of pathogens may pass to your hand. Ordinarily this is no problem at all because your immune systems take care of it however, because of draconian mandates to wear masks, you will transfer whatever is on your hands to your face by taking that mask off and on, adjusting it, etc. Your callous discounting of 90% of death sby other means is just shameful, there is no other way to say it.

What fantasy world are you living in? The spread of the virus in combination with the complete inaction on the part of the present administration necessitated the shutdowns. Add to that the fact that there are a large number of people in this country who just can't bring themselves to do the right thing, preferring to beat their chest and stamp their feet screaming "liberty". These are what made the shutdowns necessary. The travel, restaurant, and entertainment industry took the shutdowns the hardest. All in relation to the virus spread. So there goes that politically slanted argument. As far as other deaths go, my point stands. Those people who die of other means do not overwhelm the healthcare systems or have an economic impact the same way as this virus hitting like a ton of bricks did.

 

[donttread]

The Spanish flu already proved we need to take more serious measures unless we want to repeat historical mistakes.

No, the Spanish Influenza proved that the virus wins and we lose. That's how the world works. Despite some efforts at masks and closures in 1918, the disease did as it liked, as they all do so far until vaccines or other important measures that work are designed (clue: that means killing all the rats or mosquitoes for most serious epidemics with vectors: mask-wearing never works). This COVID seems much less serious than the Spanish Influenza, so far. The 1918 flu killed 675,000 Americans; we are up to 260,000 dead in the U.S. right now. It was at the beginning of winter in 1918 when the Spanish Flu ramped up its deaths, so I hesitate to make any happy-thought predictions now. If it turns out as bad with COVID as it was with Spanish Flu, then all the lockdowns, all the masking, all the business closures, all the lines at food banks will have been for nothing. Just adding to the disaster and the misery.

I hope people will make sure this governmental overreach with no point to it at all never happens again.

Agreed. Everyone is so afraid of the tiny chance Corona will kill them even as they drive around distracted by the thought which is of course how they are more likely to die! Had COVID been the spansih flu level killer we were told it would be NYC would of decimated the east coast with it's world travel, population density and absolute dependence upon mass transit. But nobody is talking about downsizing the super cities or ending their dependence upon mass transit because it's political dynomite. But had this really killed 4% of those who contracted it , there would be no choice but to talk about it. This divide is increasingly rural vs urban. No that's not quite right more like megaurban vs the rest of us. The issues, people's tolerance for more government their needs from government are so different that they might as well be different countries.

 

[Circe]

Agreed. Everyone is so afraid of the tiny chance Corona will kill them even as they drive around distracted by the thought which is of course how they are more likely to die! Had COVID been the spansih flu level killer we were told it would be NYC would of decimated the east coast with it's world travel, population density and absolute dependence upon mass transit. But nobody is talking about downsizing the super cities or ending their dependence upon mass transit because it's political dynomite. But had this really killed 4% of those who contracted it , there would be no choice but to talk about it. This divide is increasingly rural vs urban. No that's not quite right more like megaurban vs the rest of us. The issues, people's tolerance for more government their needs from government are so different that they might as well be different countries.

It's easy to do back-of-the-envelope arithmetic on COVID stats. So we have three times the population we had in 1918 (I looked it up). So the 675,000 deaths then would total more than 2 million now, all things being equal, if this virus were as virulent as the Spanish Flu. It's about a 9th of that in the death toll as we speak. So it's not as virulent. So far. It could make that up in contagiousness, I suppose.

Doubling hospitalizations in one month (today 11/30, Wall Street Journal) is not a good number, I admit.

 

[Circe]

OTOH, there’s a degree of lawlessness prevailing. Mad partying, demos in London, defiance, standing on top of telephone boxes etc.

That's what it takes to back off government. People have to REFUSE. Two big restaurants and a chain (Waffle House) have just this weekend refused to cooperate with different states' lockdowns. They may be our major patriots. The government can do anything at all bad to us, if we cooperate. Including forbidding people to make a living. We sure need a new constitution: I'd like to put that in it.

 

[sartre play]

We never had to get to this place, all we needed was a clear solidifying direction( what ever that may have been) on dealing with the virus. That did not happen, and I do blame it on this administration.

 

[donttread]

Agreed. Everyone is so afraid of the tiny chance Corona will kill them even as they drive around distracted by the thought which is of course how they are more likely to die! Had COVID been the spansih flu level killer we were told it would be NYC would of decimated the east coast with it's world travel, population density and absolute dependence upon mass transit. But nobody is talking about downsizing the super cities or ending their dependence upon mass transit because it's political dynomite. But had this really killed 4% of those who contracted it , there would be no choice but to talk about it. This divide is increasingly rural vs urban. No that's not quite right more like megaurban vs the rest of us. The issues, people's tolerance for more government their needs from government are so different that they might as well be different countries.

It's easy to do back-of-the-envelope arithmetic on COVID stats. So we have three times the population we had in 1918 (I looked it up). So the 675,000 deaths then would total more than 2 million now, all things being equal, if this virus were as virulent as the Spanish Flu. It's about a 9th of that in the death toll as we speak. So it's not as virulent. So far. It could make that up in contagiousness, I suppose.

Doubling hospitalizations in one month (today 11/30, Wall Street Journal) is not a good number, I admit.

I'm still skeptical about the numbers. But even if they are true they do not justify what has ahappened. Even before the election was the last time the people had faith in the process.

 

[Circe]

I'm still skeptical about the numbers. But even if they are true they do not justify what has happened. Even before the election was the last time the people had faith in the process.

The numbers I'm skeptical about are this testing nonsense --- high false positives, and in any case what does human activity matter? Some people are getting tested: so what? Government turmoil designed to distract from the fact that nothing they do does any GOOD ---- just harm. If you do test positive, what can they do to cure you? Nothing whatsoever.

 

[Leo123]

We never had to get to this place, all we needed was a clear solidifying direction( what ever that may have been) on dealing with the virus. That did not happen, and I do blame it on this administration.

Blame your governor then. The President cannot mandate mask wearing, etc. it's unconstitutional and I bet you'd be screaming that if he did.

 

[Leo123]

The numbers I'm skeptical about are this testing nonsense --- high false positives, and in any case what does human activity matter? Some people are getting tested: so what? Government turmoil designed to distract from the fact that nothing they do does any GOOD ---- just harm. If you do test positive, what can they do to cure you? Nothing whatsoever.

There is much to be skeptical about i.e., CDC numbers that, in the first place, are provisional. In the 2nd place, the death toll data is unreliable as they are counting deaths that are not caused by COVID. Also, all they can do is log deaths of folks with COVID "involved" which explains nothing.

Provisional Death Counts for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

National Center for Health Statistics

www.cdc.gov

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

Shutdowns became necessary back then for the same reason they might be necessary again.

They were never necessary before and they aren't necessary now.