CDZ COVID Numbers and perspective

donttread

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If this is the wrong place for this post I apologize. One of the reasons I joined here was to see a balanced set of ideas about issues. I am a fiscal con/ social lib. Essentially a Libertarian. I am looking for a civil discussion on issues with libs, cons and moderates. Afterall a wise man once said "I never learned anything in a room where everyone agreed with me"
So here goes topic one. I have questions about stats and perspective.

1) Perspective on big numbers related to COVID: Do we have a proper perspective on the relationship between 1/4 of a million deaths in a country of 1/3rd of a billion people
One way to bring that into focus is that 2.8 million plus Americans die each and every year. Therefore Corona probably added less than 10% to the total death from all cause this year. Probably far less since Neil Ferguson ( the man's who's estimated first caused panic) admits that half of these deaths were among people so debilitated that they would have died this year anyway. If he is even close to right about that then COVID may raise the total deaths considerably less than 10%.

Is that enough to have taken the actions we took in terms of closing businesses, limits on the number who are allowed to congregate together, massive increase in national debt, hospital closings/near closings and restrictions on what many of us consider personal rights?

2) Chronology question: In March we were asked to take two weeks off to "flatten the curve" based upon Neil Ferguson's model using very high death rate numbers which originally predicted 2.2 million American deaths.
At about the time the two weeks ended and the vast majority of our hospitals were suffering from no business not too much. Then in early April Ferguson adjusted the death prediction to less than 10% , not by 10% TO 10% of what his Model had predicted leading to world wide lockdowns. Now the forecasted death toll for 2020 would be very close to our reported reality.

So the question is how do you justify two weeks to flatten the curve based upon an expectation of 2,000,000 deaths then after those 2 weeks double down on months of intensified lockdowns and added mask rules given the new , far better forecast of deaths being so much lower?
 

Canon Shooter

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I don't believe the stats.

I've seen too many examples of blatant misrepresentations of deaths as Covid related. When a guy gets pancaked by a dump truck in an intersection coming home from a Covid test (and those results end up being negative) it's not a Covid-related death.

There are just too many similar tales like that for me to believe the numbers...
 

JackOfNoTrades

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Looking at other means of death is irrelevant. Looking at the numbers of coronavirus deaths in relation to other means of deaths is irrelevant. The issue is the spread of the virus and its cost on a public health and economic level. If I walk up to you in the street, shake your hand, and talk with you for a few minutes, I can pass the virus to you if I am unknowingly infectious. On the other hand, if I do the same thing, I can't give you cancer, or a heart attack, or diabetes, or make you obese, or sprinkle mental fairy dust over you so that the next time you climb in a car, you get killed in a car accident. But with the virus, we know how it is spread because doctors and scientists have conducted studies and research stating that the virus is spread by droplets via exhaling, talking, singling, laughing, etc. Gather people together in large groups and you have a super spreader event. You may become sick, you may not. You may require hospitalization, you may even die. The point is, it spreads quickly and manifests itself in a way that not only are the healthcare systems overwhelmed, but the economic impact is a sledgehammer. All those people dying from other means...don't have the same public health and economic impact...because they can be absorbed by those systems.

Shutdowns became necessary back then for the same reason they might be necessary again. Because simply put, people will not do the right thing. Individual liberty is paramount in this country. There are those that can't see the short term sacrifices for gaining long term stability. The virus could be tamped down just by following the basic precautions that have been given out so far. All without the need for a shutdown.
 

ReinyDays

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As far as I know, the CDC has yet to publish their preliminary statistics ... these numbers we see bantered about are just guesses ...

IF the CDC follows the same basic procedure as they do with the seasonal flu ... then they're currently examining the medical records of some percentage of the reported cases and verifing that indeed the person died of COVID-19 ... or deciding the person died of some other cause ... for this they estimate the total death count from COVID ...

THEN however long it takes the CDC to go through each and every case, and come up with actual numbers for their final report ...

Jack'Trades is right ... the lock downs are strictly to keep hospitals from being overwhelmed ... God forbid shareholders get a 0.1¢ less in dividend payments ...
 

danielpalos

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1) Perspective on big numbers related to COVID: Do we have a proper perspective on the relationship between 1/4 of a million deaths in a country of 1/3rd of a billion people
One way to bring that into focus is that 2.8 million plus Americans die each and every year. Therefore Corona probably added less than 10% to the total death from all cause this year. Probably far less since Neil Ferguson ( the man's who's estimated first caused panic) admits that half of these deaths were among people so debilitated that they would have died this year anyway. If he is even close to right about that then COVID may raise the total deaths considerably less than 10%.
We have the historical perspective of the Spanish flu. It killed more people than WWI. And, the second and third waves were worse than the first. It was the globalization of mobilization for a world war that helped spread the virus.
 

Papageorgio

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Looking at other means of death is irrelevant. Looking at the numbers of coronavirus deaths in relation to other means of deaths is irrelevant. The issue is the spread of the virus and its cost on a public health and economic level. If I walk up to you in the street, shake your hand, and talk with you for a few minutes, I can pass the virus to you if I am unknowingly infectious. On the other hand, if I do the same thing, I can't give you cancer, or a heart attack, or diabetes, or make you obese, or sprinkle mental fairy dust over you so that the next time you climb in a car, you get killed in a car accident. But with the virus, we know how it is spread because doctors and scientists have conducted studies and research stating that the virus is spread by droplets via exhaling, talking, singling, laughing, etc. Gather people together in large groups and you have a super spreader event. You may become sick, you may not. You may require hospitalization, you may even die. The point is, it spreads quickly and manifests itself in a way that not only are the healthcare systems overwhelmed, but the economic impact is a sledgehammer. All those people dying from other means...don't have the same public health and economic impact...because they can be absorbed by those systems.

Shutdowns became necessary back then for the same reason they might be necessary again. Because simply put, people will not do the right thing. Individual liberty is paramount in this country. There are those that can't see the short term sacrifices for gaining long term stability. The virus could be tamped down just by following the basic precautions that have been given out so far. All without the need for a shutdown.
Then why are numbers going up in Europe and other countries? The northern hemisphere is seeing less sun, which does, whether one wants to believe it or not, kills the virus, less sun, less of a chance to kill the virus. We are now moving events indoors, and colder weather taxes our immune system. It is called science. That is why numbers are up, it is called science and the medical world knew this was coming and governors waited until after elections to start restrictions. Pretty sick of them.
 

andaronjim

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As far as I know, the CDC has yet to publish their preliminary statistics ... these numbers we see bantered about are just guesses ...

IF the CDC follows the same basic procedure as they do with the seasonal flu ... then they're currently examining the medical records of some percentage of the reported cases and verifing that indeed the person died of COVID-19 ... or deciding the person died of some other cause ... for this they estimate the total death count from COVID ...

THEN however long it takes the CDC to go through each and every case, and come up with actual numbers for their final report ...

Jack'Trades is right ... the lock downs are strictly to keep hospitals from being overwhelmed ... God forbid shareholders get a 0.1¢ less in dividend payments ...
The Slavewithnoname is a blithering idiot, where many people have died because they were scared by the prog masters not to go the hospital so many died of heart attacks, cancer and other terminal diseases, but since they eventually end up at the hospital anyway, these people are counted in the tally of "related" deaths, thus driving up the numbers the prog masters use to control US.

 

JackOfNoTrades

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Looking at other means of death is irrelevant. Looking at the numbers of coronavirus deaths in relation to other means of deaths is irrelevant. The issue is the spread of the virus and its cost on a public health and economic level. If I walk up to you in the street, shake your hand, and talk with you for a few minutes, I can pass the virus to you if I am unknowingly infectious. On the other hand, if I do the same thing, I can't give you cancer, or a heart attack, or diabetes, or make you obese, or sprinkle mental fairy dust over you so that the next time you climb in a car, you get killed in a car accident. But with the virus, we know how it is spread because doctors and scientists have conducted studies and research stating that the virus is spread by droplets via exhaling, talking, singling, laughing, etc. Gather people together in large groups and you have a super spreader event. You may become sick, you may not. You may require hospitalization, you may even die. The point is, it spreads quickly and manifests itself in a way that not only are the healthcare systems overwhelmed, but the economic impact is a sledgehammer. All those people dying from other means...don't have the same public health and economic impact...because they can be absorbed by those systems.

Shutdowns became necessary back then for the same reason they might be necessary again. Because simply put, people will not do the right thing. Individual liberty is paramount in this country. There are those that can't see the short term sacrifices for gaining long term stability. The virus could be tamped down just by following the basic precautions that have been given out so far. All without the need for a shutdown.
Then why are numbers going up in Europe and other countries? The northern hemisphere is seeing less sun, which does, whether one wants to believe it or not, kills the virus, less sun, less of a chance to kill the virus. We are now moving events indoors, and colder weather taxes our immune system. It is called science. That is why numbers are up, it is called science and the medical world knew this was coming and governors waited until after elections to start restrictions. Pretty sick of them.
Same reason they are heading up here. People have abandoned precautions. It's not that hard to grasp when we know how the virus spreads. Yes people are heading indoors more. But they are gathering in larger groups more without masks, distancing, etc. This could have been avoided even with people being indoors more. But again, there's no will to do the right thing long enough to get the virus under control. And absent any leadership from the top, what are governors, mayors, and business leaders supposed to do?
 

Meister

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With a 99% survival rate, it's sad to see people having to close their businesses and walking away.
Employee's having to be the pawns in a political gamesmanship and wondering if their savings are going
to get them through the second bout of closures. I'm talking about the heart and soul of America,
not the corporations who can survive, and probably not even getting shuttered, I'm talking about
small businesses, where it's a week to week meeting payroll.
 

Pete7469

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This DEMPANIC is entirely contrived by the international media complex, which consists exclusively of leftist sociopath apparatchiks. There was no reason AT ALL to shut down all of western civilization. Even the chi-coms did not lock their people down like democrook governors have. It was all designed to harm Trump, but if you ask me more people understood exactly what happened and that's why 74 million people cast ballots for him, mostly in person with ID's.

I could have told you back in March that it was bullshit hype simply by the fact that you heard not one hysterical story about morgues being overwhelmed with corpses, anywhere in the world.

It was just the excuse the communists needed to get these phony mail in ballots out there as well. Hopefully Trump thwarts their efforts and stays in the WH. If so, he damn sure better start filling up federal prisons with people who operated this banana republic sham election.

Regardless, you can bet by next March the media will have a new subject matter for their hysteria, and Covid will be washed down the memory hole.


.
 

Papageorgio

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Looking at other means of death is irrelevant. Looking at the numbers of coronavirus deaths in relation to other means of deaths is irrelevant. The issue is the spread of the virus and its cost on a public health and economic level. If I walk up to you in the street, shake your hand, and talk with you for a few minutes, I can pass the virus to you if I am unknowingly infectious. On the other hand, if I do the same thing, I can't give you cancer, or a heart attack, or diabetes, or make you obese, or sprinkle mental fairy dust over you so that the next time you climb in a car, you get killed in a car accident. But with the virus, we know how it is spread because doctors and scientists have conducted studies and research stating that the virus is spread by droplets via exhaling, talking, singling, laughing, etc. Gather people together in large groups and you have a super spreader event. You may become sick, you may not. You may require hospitalization, you may even die. The point is, it spreads quickly and manifests itself in a way that not only are the healthcare systems overwhelmed, but the economic impact is a sledgehammer. All those people dying from other means...don't have the same public health and economic impact...because they can be absorbed by those systems.

Shutdowns became necessary back then for the same reason they might be necessary again. Because simply put, people will not do the right thing. Individual liberty is paramount in this country. There are those that can't see the short term sacrifices for gaining long term stability. The virus could be tamped down just by following the basic precautions that have been given out so far. All without the need for a shutdown.
Then why are numbers going up in Europe and other countries? The northern hemisphere is seeing less sun, which does, whether one wants to believe it or not, kills the virus, less sun, less of a chance to kill the virus. We are now moving events indoors, and colder weather taxes our immune system. It is called science. That is why numbers are up, it is called science and the medical world knew this was coming and governors waited until after elections to start restrictions. Pretty sick of them.
Same reason they are heading up here. People have abandoned precautions. It's not that hard to grasp when we know how the virus spreads. Yes people are heading indoors more. But they are gathering in larger groups more without masks, distancing, etc. This could have been avoided even with people being indoors more. But again, there's no will to do the right thing long enough to get the virus under control. And absent any leadership from the top, what are governors, mayors, and business leaders supposed to do?
Everywhere I go which is work, the grocery store and home, it is the same. My friends and family are all staying put. Now I hear of politicians abandoning what they have preached, but we know they are the elitists that believe they are better than all other humans.

Again, the medical professionals were concerned about spikes in the fall. Less sunlight, events moving indoors and immune systems taxed heavier because of cooling temperatures, that is also science.
 

danielpalos

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With a 99% survival rate, it's sad to see people having to close their businesses and walking away.
Employee's having to be the pawns in a political gamesmanship and wondering if their savings are going
to get them through the second bout of closures. I'm talking about the heart and soul of America,
not the corporations who can survive, and probably not even getting shuttered, I'm talking about
small businesses, where it's a week to week meeting payroll.
I would agree with you but our healthcare system is already being stressed. Even Sweden has changed course.
 

ReinyDays

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The Slavewithnoname is a blithering idiot, where many people have died because they were scared by the prog masters not to go the hospital so many died of heart attacks, cancer and other terminal diseases, but since they eventually end up at the hospital anyway, these people are counted in the tally of "related" deaths, thus driving up the numbers the prog masters use to control US.

If there's enough police to enforce these lock down orders ... maybe you have too many police ...
 

candycorn

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Like everything else essentially, the American public demands information immediately. So when they make a graphic showing "Covid" deaths....everyone gets the information. About 1.7 seconds later, politics is introduced to the topic and the "Covid" deaths figure is dissected primarily to provide spin to those who wish to create a narrative beneficial to their candidate. So the sad misguided practitioners of this gambit have their data point that "pre-existing" conditions contributed to the deaths of those who died from what was called "Covid" deaths.

The narrative spawns the equally silly "If we just quarantined the at-risk people, we could not have any lock downs." It, of course, is done to enliven and minimize the campaign of their candidate; ignoring the fact that many with pre-existing conditions that place people in the at-risk category are unknown to the sufferer. According to the Pan American Health Organization, half of the people who have diabetes don't know they have it. The American Heart Association says that 1 in 5 people who have heart attacks...don't even know it. So isolating the "at risk" group is a pipe dream.

As for the numbers. They're real. The general public, of course, understands "Covid" deaths mean deaths that are related to "Covid". Those who are looking for spin to make the current administration look competent in their response are the only ones who act as if this is some sort of revelation. Its an "ah ha!" moment with no big reveal.
 
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donttread

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Looking at other means of death is irrelevant. Looking at the numbers of coronavirus deaths in relation to other means of deaths is irrelevant. The issue is the spread of the virus and its cost on a public health and economic level. If I walk up to you in the street, shake your hand, and talk with you for a few minutes, I can pass the virus to you if I am unknowingly infectious. On the other hand, if I do the same thing, I can't give you cancer, or a heart attack, or diabetes, or make you obese, or sprinkle mental fairy dust over you so that the next time you climb in a car, you get killed in a car accident. But with the virus, we know how it is spread because doctors and scientists have conducted studies and research stating that the virus is spread by droplets via exhaling, talking, singling, laughing, etc. Gather people together in large groups and you have a super spreader event. You may become sick, you may not. You may require hospitalization, you may even die. The point is, it spreads quickly and manifests itself in a way that not only are the healthcare systems overwhelmed, but the economic impact is a sledgehammer. All those people dying from other means...don't have the same public health and economic impact...because they can be absorbed by those systems.

Shutdowns became necessary back then for the same reason they might be necessary again. Because simply put, people will not do the right thing. Individual liberty is paramount in this country. There are those that can't see the short term sacrifices for gaining long term stability. The virus could be tamped down just by following the basic precautions that have been given out so far. All without the need for a shutdown.
 

sartre play

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Some people just like to roll the dice, some just don't trust the medical profession. For the rest of us the thought of giving it to some one else is enough to keep us masked.
 

Crepitus

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If this is the wrong place for this post I apologize. One of the reasons I joined here was to see a balanced set of ideas about issues. I am a fiscal con/ social lib. Essentially a Libertarian. I am looking for a civil discussion on issues with libs, cons and moderates. Afterall a wise man once said "I never learned anything in a room where everyone agreed with me"
So here goes topic one. I have questions about stats and perspective.

1) Perspective on big numbers related to COVID: Do we have a proper perspective on the relationship between 1/4 of a million deaths in a country of 1/3rd of a billion people
One way to bring that into focus is that 2.8 million plus Americans die each and every year. Therefore Corona probably added less than 10% to the total death from all cause this year. Probably far less since Neil Ferguson ( the man's who's estimated first caused panic) admits that half of these deaths were among people so debilitated that they would have died this year anyway. If he is even close to right about that then COVID may raise the total deaths considerably less than 10%.

Is that enough to have taken the actions we took in terms of closing businesses, limits on the number who are allowed to congregate together, massive increase in national debt, hospital closings/near closings and restrictions on what many of us consider personal rights?

2) Chronology question: In March we were asked to take two weeks off to "flatten the curve" based upon Neil Ferguson's model using very high death rate numbers which originally predicted 2.2 million American deaths.
At about the time the two weeks ended and the vast majority of our hospitals were suffering from no business not too much. Then in early April Ferguson adjusted the death prediction to less than 10% , not by 10% TO 10% of what his Model had predicted leading to world wide lockdowns. Now the forecasted death toll for 2020 would be very close to our reported reality.

So the question is how do you justify two weeks to flatten the curve based upon an expectation of 2,000,000 deaths then after those 2 weeks double down on months of intensified lockdowns and added mask rules given the new , far better forecast of deaths being so much lower?
Your numbers are misleading. At the current death rate of about 2.5% once it's made its way through the population we will have 8.25 million corpses on our hands.

That's not quite as comforting as the way you're trying to frame it.
 

Likkmee

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OOOOOOOooooooK
 

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