CDZ COVID Numbers and perspective

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donttread

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I appreciate your reply but how can the amount COVID deaths increase total deaths be irrelvent? It provides perspective. It is even likely that working age people are more likely to die in a car accident than from COVID and we know that kids are far more likely to be taken out by the Flu.
Our young people are statistically safe, most adults are reasonably safe and certainly elderly/debilitated are at much more risk and should be protected if they wish.
I definetly get what you are saying it certainly adds to the fear factor that this unseen assailant can come at me un-noticed from anywhere at any time unless I am alone. IMO, the fear factor of exposeure or even a positive test have been blown out of proportion for the average American. For example just a little more that 1 in 2,000 Americans have died from COVID but 1 in 115 will die from something this year. My odds are better than average in both cases because both are over represented by very elderly very debilitated. However you look at it this is not the killer it was first purported to be and IMO: If hospitals are going broke from under utilization you're not in much of a pandemic. As for people not doing what they should I honestly think the nation would of responded to a request to help those at high risk isolate if they wished far better than being told what to do.
I guess what I'm saying is that 250,000 dead is like 4 bad flu years at once and we just soldier on through those year after year where we lose tens of thousands depsite having a vaccine. In other words we can't shut down over something like this. The cost are too high and the benfits too low.
 

Circe

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Is that enough to have taken the actions we took in terms of closing businesses, limits on the number who are allowed to congregate together, massive increase in national debt, hospital closings/near closings and restrictions on what many of us consider personal rights?
Nope. They killed the American Constitution and now it's dead.


2) Chronology question: In March we were asked to take two weeks off to "flatten the curve" based upon Neil Ferguson's model using very high death rate numbers which originally predicted 2.2 million American deaths.
At about the time the two weeks ended and the vast majority of our hospitals were suffering from no business not too much. Then in early April Ferguson adjusted the death prediction to less than 10% , not by 10% TO 10% of what his Model had predicted leading to world wide lockdowns. Now the forecasted death toll for 2020 would be very close to our reported reality.
Hey, everyone makes mistakes................ :eek:

I read today that they are estimating 15% of people have caught Covid. And we have a quarter-million deaths from that. So assume nearly everyone gets it, as it is clearly a wildly contagious disease that masks, even hospital masks, have no effect on. (Huge contagion of many hundreds in the Mayo and Cleveland Clinics, and you know they were wearing serious masks!) IF everyone catches it, then that would be five times, approx., the deaths we've had so far ---- which would be a total of 1.5 million deaths in America alone.
Okay, that's not good. You can see why they want the vaccine.


So the question is how do you justify two weeks to flatten the curve based upon an expectation of 2,000,000 deaths then after those 2 weeks double down on months of intensified lockdowns and added mask rules given the new , far better forecast of deaths being so much lower?
The answer may be that they totally screwed up? Yes, that's it.
 
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donttread

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Like everything else essentially, the American public demands information immediately. So when they make a graphic showing "Covid" deaths....everyone gets the information. About 1.7 seconds later, politics is introduced to the topic and the "Covid" deaths figure is dissected primarily to provide spin to those who wish to create a narrative beneficial to their candidate. So the sad misguided practitioners of this gambit have their data point that "pre-existing" conditions contributed to the deaths of those who died from what was called "Covid" deaths.

The narrative spawns the equally silly "If we just quarantined the at-risk people, we could not have any lock downs." It, of course, is done to enliven and minimize the campaign of their candidate; ignoring the fact that many with pre-existing conditions that place people in the at-risk category are unknown to the sufferer. According to the Pan American Health Organization, half of the people who have diabetes don't know they have it. The American Heart Association says that 1 in 5 people who have heart attacks...don't even know it. So isolating the "at risk" group is a pipe dream.

As for the numbers. They're real. The general public, of course, understands "Covid" deaths mean deaths that are related to "Covid". Those who are looking for spin to make the current administration look competent in their response are the only ones who act as if this is some sort of revelation. Its an "ah ha!" moment with no big reveal.
You have to admit some questionable counting methods are been exposed.
 
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donttread

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Is that enough to have taken the actions we took in terms of closing businesses, limits on the number who are allowed to congregate together, massive increase in national debt, hospital closings/near closings and restrictions on what many of us consider personal rights?
Nope. They killed the American Constitution and now it's dead.


2) Chronology question: In March we were asked to take two weeks off to "flatten the curve" based upon Neil Ferguson's model using very high death rate numbers which originally predicted 2.2 million American deaths.
At about the time the two weeks ended and the vast majority of our hospitals were suffering from no business not too much. Then in early April Ferguson adjusted the death prediction to less than 10% , not by 10% TO 10% of what his Model had predicted leading to world wide lockdowns. Now the forecasted death toll for 2020 would be very close to our reported reality.
Hey, everyone makes mistakes................ :eek:

I read today that they are estimating 15% of people have caught Covid. And we have a quarter-million deaths from that. So assume nearly everyone gets it, as it is clearly a wildly contagious disease that masks, even hospital masks, have no effect on. (Huge contagion of many hundreds in the Mayo and Cleveland Clinics, and you know they were wearing serious masks!) IF everyone catches it, then that would be five times, approx., the deaths we've had so far ---- which would be a total of 1.5 million deaths in America alone.
Okay, that's not good. You can see why they want the vaccine.


So the question is how do you justify two weeks to flatten the curve based upon an expectation of 2,000,000 deaths then after those 2 weeks double down on months of intensified lockdowns and added mask rules given the new , far better forecast of deaths being so much lower?
The answer may be that they totally screwed up? Yes, that's it.
 
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donttread

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Is that enough to have taken the actions we took in terms of closing businesses, limits on the number who are allowed to congregate together, massive increase in national debt, hospital closings/near closings and restrictions on what many of us consider personal rights?
Nope. They killed the American Constitution and now it's dead.


2) Chronology question: In March we were asked to take two weeks off to "flatten the curve" based upon Neil Ferguson's model using very high death rate numbers which originally predicted 2.2 million American deaths.
At about the time the two weeks ended and the vast majority of our hospitals were suffering from no business not too much. Then in early April Ferguson adjusted the death prediction to less than 10% , not by 10% TO 10% of what his Model had predicted leading to world wide lockdowns. Now the forecasted death toll for 2020 would be very close to our reported reality.
Hey, everyone makes mistakes................ :eek:

I read today that they are estimating 15% of people have caught Covid. And we have a quarter-million deaths from that. So assume nearly everyone gets it, as it is clearly a wildly contagious disease that masks, even hospital masks, have no effect on. (Huge contagion of many hundreds in the Mayo and Cleveland Clinics, and you know they were wearing serious masks!) IF everyone catches it, then that would be five times, approx., the deaths we've had so far ---- which would be a total of 1.5 million deaths in America alone.
Okay, that's not good. You can see why they want the vaccine.


So the question is how do you justify two weeks to flatten the curve based upon an expectation of 2,000,000 deaths then after those 2 weeks double down on months of intensified lockdowns and added mask rules given the new , far better forecast of deaths being so much lower?
The answer may be that they totally screwed up? Yes, that's it.
IMO, they ( Coumo, Pelosi, et. al.) NEVER intended this to be over in two weeks and once we folded they knew it didn't have to be.
 

Circe

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Same reason they are heading up here. People have abandoned precautions. It's not that hard to grasp when we know how the virus spreads. Yes people are heading indoors more. But they are gathering in larger groups more without masks, distancing, etc. This could have been avoided even with people being indoors more. But again, there's no will to do the right thing long enough to get the virus under control. And absent any leadership from the top, what are governors, mayors, and business leaders supposed to do?
Sounds like you blame Trump. [Sigh]

The big hole in your logic is that you assume anyone CAN get the virus under control. The lockdowns, masking, abrogation of the Constitution for any assembly, making a living, or moving outside have been so severe for not two weeks but EIGHT MONTHS, it should be obvious this is a high-contagion disease that cannot be avoided. We lost. The virus won. This is pretty normal: try it with smallpox and everybody would catch it and half of everybody would die. I don't see why people think this is controllable. It isn't. All these awful governors can do is make us much more miserable than they were already. This is what rulers usually do, just to feel and show they are doing SOMETHING.
 

Circe

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IMO, they ( Coumo, Pelosi, et. al.) NEVER intended this to be over in two weeks and once we folded they knew it didn't have to be.
Agreed. BOY were we shilled. Two weeks!! They crashed our whole economy, our whole society, everything. For nothing, for total failure. And it's not even that bad a disease!! Okay, there are a LOT of deaths ---- I think that's because it's so incredibly contagious. That is, if everyone gets it, and some diseases are very contagious (measles, smallpox, now this one), even a small percentage dying would be a whole lot of people if it's the whole country catching it.
 

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With a 99% survival rate, it's sad to see people having to close their businesses and walking away.
Employee's having to be the pawns in a political gamesmanship and wondering if their savings are going
to get them through the second bout of closures. I'm talking about the heart and soul of America,
not the corporations who can survive, and probably not even getting shuttered, I'm talking about
small businesses, where it's a week to week meeting payroll.
It’s quite disheartening, even heartbreaking, to see, in my city, the small and interesting shops, that have been there “forever”, no longer there.
 

Mindful

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  • We may be approaching a saturation point in terms of coronavirus infections in some of the worst-hit countries.
  • Eventually, the virus will run out of people to infect.
  • But there are still many unknowns when it comes to this virus.
More than one-third of the world's population is now in lockdown as the world battles the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic.

We spoke to Belgian virologist Guido Vanham, the former head of virology at the Institute for Tropical Medicine in Antwerp, Belgium, and asked him: how will this pandemic end? And on which factors might that depend?

 
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donttread

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As far as I know, the CDC has yet to publish their preliminary statistics ... these numbers we see bantered about are just guesses ...

IF the CDC follows the same basic procedure as they do with the seasonal flu ... then they're currently examining the medical records of some percentage of the reported cases and verifing that indeed the person died of COVID-19 ... or deciding the person died of some other cause ... for this they estimate the total death count from COVID ...

THEN however long it takes the CDC to go through each and every case, and come up with actual numbers for their final report ...

Jack'Trades is right ... the lock downs are strictly to keep hospitals from being overwhelmed ... God forbid shareholders get a 0.1¢ less in dividend payments ...
Yes that was the original purpose , or should I say stated purpose. It worked so well that almost every hospital in the country suffered/suffers from under utilization. How can that happeen in a real killer pandemic?
100 years ago Americans faced a real killer disese and WW 1 at the same time. Neither of which spared the young and they just faced it. What kind of whimps have we become? Can a nation of such softies survive in the real world much longer? Is softnes what really kills empires?
 
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donttread

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  • We may be approaching a saturation point in terms of coronavirus infections in some of the worst-hit countries.
  • Eventually, the virus will run out of people to infect.
  • But there are still many unknowns when it comes to this virus.
More than one-third of the world's population is now in lockdown as the world battles the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic.

We spoke to Belgian virologist Guido Vanham, the former head of virology at the Institute for Tropical Medicine in Antwerp, Belgium, and asked him: how will this pandemic end? And on which factors might that depend?

The thing is that this virus is not that big a threat to most people.
 
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donttread

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1) Perspective on big numbers related to COVID: Do we have a proper perspective on the relationship between 1/4 of a million deaths in a country of 1/3rd of a billion people
One way to bring that into focus is that 2.8 million plus Americans die each and every year. Therefore Corona probably added less than 10% to the total death from all cause this year. Probably far less since Neil Ferguson ( the man's who's estimated first caused panic) admits that half of these deaths were among people so debilitated that they would have died this year anyway. If he is even close to right about that then COVID may raise the total deaths considerably less than 10%.
We have the historical perspective of the Spanish flu. It killed more people than WWI. And, the second and third waves were worse than the first. It was the globalization of mobilization for a world war that helped spread the virus.
Much nastier virus and it also affected the young. But the country marshalled on and did not shutdown and saddle their grandchildren with unsustainable debt
 

Mindful

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DFDB9988-CD0D-4494-9EC5-3EC58FE4C494.jpeg


Before COVID-19, the most severe pandemic in recent history was the 1918 influenza virus, often called “the Spanish Flu.” The virus infected roughly 500 million people—one-third of the world’s population—and caused 50 million deaths worldwide (double the number of deaths in World War I). In the United States, a quarter of the population caught the virus, 675,000 died, and life expectancy dropped by 12 years. With no vaccine to protect against the virus, people were urged to isolate, quarantine, practice good personal hygiene, and limit social interaction.

Until February 2020, the 1918 epidemic was largely overlooked in the teaching of American history, despite the ample documentation at the National Archives and elsewhere of the disease and its devastation. The 100-year-old pictures from 1918 that just months ago seemed quaint and dated now seem oddly prescient. We make these records more widely available in hopes that they contain lessons about what to expect over the coming months and ideas about ways to avoid a repeat and prepare for what may follow.

Lots of pictures:

 

ReinyDays

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Yes that was the original purpose , or should I say stated purpose. It worked so well that almost every hospital in the country suffered/suffers from under utilization. How can that happeen in a real killer pandemic?
100 years ago Americans faced a real killer disese and WW 1 at the same time. Neither of which spared the young and they just faced it. What kind of whimps have we become? Can a nation of such softies survive in the real world much longer? Is softnes what really kills empires?
What's really pussy is saying this on the internet instead of the faces of the newly orphaned ... look them in the eye and say this ...
 

sartre play

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How ever you count the virus cases, they are up again, people are still getting sick & dying. not good by any count.
 
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donttread

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Yes that was the original purpose , or should I say stated purpose. It worked so well that almost every hospital in the country suffered/suffers from under utilization. How can that happeen in a real killer pandemic?
100 years ago Americans faced a real killer disese and WW 1 at the same time. Neither of which spared the young and they just faced it. What kind of whimps have we become? Can a nation of such softies survive in the real world much longer? Is softnes what really kills empires?
What's really pussy is saying this on the internet instead of the faces of the newly orphaned ... look them in the eye and say this ...
What newly orphaned? All those 65 year olds who lost dad after 3 years in the nursing home on comfort care??
 
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donttread

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How ever you count the virus cases, they are up again, people are still getting sick & dying. not good by any count.
Apparently lockdowns didn't stop a casual contact virus?
 

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