There’s a widespread assumption that the US can go out of its way to insult, threaten, and demean its allies without any real consequences, because the transatlantic alliance is supposedly unimportant, or not at risk. That assumption is naive.
My position has always been that while the ties between Europe and the US are historically strong, they are not unbreakable. The idea that they would simply hold up “by default, or are useless” regardless of policy or behavior, was always a comforting illusion rather than a serious analysis.
As Charles de Gaulle famously put it: “Nations have no friends, only interests.” For decades, US and European interests were largely aligned, security, trade, and the maintenance of a shared global order.
Trump is the first US president in generations to openly signal that this alignment no longer exists, not just rhetorically, but in concrete policy.
And we’re already seeing the consequences of that shift:
www.cnbc.com
For those on the right who will inevitably dismiss this: understand what this actually means. A free trade agreement encompassing nearly 2 billion people between Europe and one of the fastest-growing major economies in the world is not symbolic. It’s a structural realignment.
This isn’t about hurt feelings or diplomatic tone. It’s about the emergence of a global trade architecture where the US is no longer the default hub, and once those networks solidify, they don’t snap back easily. The longer this continues, the more the US will find itself not leading global trade, but increasingly looking in from the outside.
To make this less theoretical: one likely consequence is a gradual reduction in the centrality of US financial instruments. As major trade blocs integrate more tightly with each other, they also have increasing incentives to settle trade, manage reserves, and stabilize currencies outside the dollar system. Over time, that reduces structural demand for US assets like Treasury bonds, not because they become unsafe overnight, but because they are no longer as uniquely indispensable as they once were.
I hope the MAGA right is ready for a world with the US on it's own, because the rest of that world is getting ready for it.
My position has always been that while the ties between Europe and the US are historically strong, they are not unbreakable. The idea that they would simply hold up “by default, or are useless” regardless of policy or behavior, was always a comforting illusion rather than a serious analysis.
As Charles de Gaulle famously put it: “Nations have no friends, only interests.” For decades, US and European interests were largely aligned, security, trade, and the maintenance of a shared global order.
Trump is the first US president in generations to openly signal that this alignment no longer exists, not just rhetorically, but in concrete policy.
And we’re already seeing the consequences of that shift:
India and European Union have closed a 'landmark' free trade deal, Prime Minister Modi says
Goods traded between India and the EU in 2024 amounted to over 120 billion euros (about $140 billion), making it New Delhi's largest trading partner.
www.cnbc.com
For those on the right who will inevitably dismiss this: understand what this actually means. A free trade agreement encompassing nearly 2 billion people between Europe and one of the fastest-growing major economies in the world is not symbolic. It’s a structural realignment.
This isn’t about hurt feelings or diplomatic tone. It’s about the emergence of a global trade architecture where the US is no longer the default hub, and once those networks solidify, they don’t snap back easily. The longer this continues, the more the US will find itself not leading global trade, but increasingly looking in from the outside.
To make this less theoretical: one likely consequence is a gradual reduction in the centrality of US financial instruments. As major trade blocs integrate more tightly with each other, they also have increasing incentives to settle trade, manage reserves, and stabilize currencies outside the dollar system. Over time, that reduces structural demand for US assets like Treasury bonds, not because they become unsafe overnight, but because they are no longer as uniquely indispensable as they once were.
I hope the MAGA right is ready for a world with the US on it's own, because the rest of that world is getting ready for it.
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