Complete US Voter Registration statistics, End of 2013

Statistikhengst

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Every bit of this data is at this link:

Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond: Complete Voter Registration Statistics (USA), End of 2013

The data tables are way too large to port over to USMB, it would be just an awful mess, so the best thing to do is to go to the link and read and enjoy. Once you start reading, you will get a feel for why this stuff can be helpful to electioneering.

Some quotes:

I have completed a second major study of voter registration in the USA. Well, „completed“ is not accurate, for the stats are constantly changing. Rather, I can now provide a very reliable snapshot of one point in history and compare it as best as possible to the same time frame four years ago and again between the GE 2012 and the GE 2008. These are the RV statistics for the Union in December 2013. I will be updating this data every six months and posting a new report each time. For that is the entire idea – to follow and note changes in the electorate in the time leading up to the GE 2012.

Because of Federalism, there is no standard system in the USA for recording statistics pertaining to elections (voter registration, voter turnout, election results) according to any criteria. This makes getting information about Voter Registration somewhat of an adventure, and also, because not all states have -or publish- voter registration by party affiliation, it is impossible to come up with complete partisan statistics for the Union.

It gets even more adventurous as many State SOS or BOE or Governor's or Lt. Governor's websites are constantly moving data into archives and former links then go defunct. Different states have different ways of terming things, but the end result is just the same. Whether a state calls is a „registered voter database“, a „voter registration file“ or „roll of voters“, it all means the same thing. Some states publish only the number of voters registered, while others publish them by partisan affiliation. Some publish VR stats only by number and race and/or gender an/or age. Some states publish VR stats every week, others every month, others once quarterly, others only per election, etc. So, it's a mixed bag, to say the least.

I did this analysis once already in 2011 and as of now, will be doing it 2 times a year until 2016, and then, quarterly.

What I have done is to research the websites for all 50 states plus DC and included links to all the current VR totals in this excel table:

1.) Complete Table. (complete raw data for everything)...

Hard facts:

Currently, there are 184,163,607 registered voters in the USA plus DC. Now, we know that from day to day, people are coming on and off the rolls all over the place via death, moving, coming of voting age, etc., but those things generally cancel each other out and daily changes on the national level would then be pretty micoscopic. So, it is fair to say that right now, 184 million are registered.

Of those 184,603,607, 112,624,462 (61.15%) registered voters come from the 31 states plus DC that provide VR statistics by partisan affiliation.

The other 71,539,145 (38.85) registered voters come from 17 states that do not provide VR statistics by party affiliation, but rather, publish a VR total.*/**

The picture will always be somewhat incomplete as ND has no voter registration at all and MS provides no VR stats.*
The study is not trying to make any partisan point. It only measures the actual data and compares it to four years before and also makes a comparison, by state between the GE 2012 and the GE 2008. There are some trends that can be spotted and that makes it worth the read.

Here one of many maps:



The explanation for that map is at the blogspot link.

More quotes:

I am not saying in any way that VR is a predictor of elections. Indeed, WV, KY, LA and OK prove that partisan registration does not necessarily translate to votes at the ballot box for one party or another. In the cases of WV, KY, LA and OK, we are with great certainty talking about conservative Democrats who are more in line with the Republicans on a number of issues but have maintained their former party status. However, VR studies in conjunction with knowing the electoral history of a state, can give us an excellent idea where that state stands and if battleground tendencies are present.

The report then goes into depth about Wyoming, DC, Rhode Island, Arizona, California, Ohio, West Virginia and Oklahoma, all for different reasons that make sense at the link.

At the end of the report, I praise a number of state SOS website for good work in publishing such statistics.

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I would encourage everyone to take time and read the analysis, the data-gathering for which took about one month of time (in my spare time), including a double-check and clean-up, so to speak - and then go to the excel link and check out your own state.

There is just tons of information here that could be of lots of interest to a lot of people.

If you have a question about any one link, or any specific state or wish to add information that you think may be missing, feel free to do so.

This is my Christmas gift to USMB. Update coming in May-June of 2014.


-Stat

And BTW, if you have not already:




:)


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Some mentions:

[MENTION=42916]Derideo_Te[/MENTION] [MENTION=41527]Pogo[/MENTION] [MENTION=1322]007[/MENTION] [MENTION=32163]Listening[/MENTION] [MENTION=40495]AngelsNDemons[/MENTION] [MENTION=6847]Foxfyre[/MENTION] [MENTION=29697]freedombecki[/MENTION] [MENTION=42649]Gracie[/MENTION] [MENTION=20412]JakeStarkey[/MENTION] [MENTION=25505]Jroc[/MENTION] [MENTION=36574]Lipush[/MENTION] @LoneLaughter [MENTION=43625]Mertex[/MENTION] [MENTION=24391]NoNukes[/MENTION] [MENTION=20321]rightwinger[/MENTION] [MENTION=34247]sfcalifornia[/MENTION] [MENTION=44172]Sweet_Caroline[/MENTION] [MENTION=24278]Synthaholic[/MENTION] [MENTION=46193]Thx[/MENTION] [MENTION=43534]Vikrant[/MENTION] [MENTION=45104]WelfareQueen[/MENTION] [MENTION=38281]Wolfsister77[/MENTION] [MENTION=22477]Jos[/MENTION] [MENTION=25493]kiwiman127[/MENTION] [MENTION=26011]Ernie S.[/MENTION] [MENTION=5464]midcan5[/MENTION] [MENTION=39852]TheOldSchool[/MENTION] [MENTION=43888]AyeCantSeeYou[/MENTION] [MENTION=19441]Big Black Dog[/MENTION] [MENTION=23424]syrenn[/MENTION] [MENTION=26153]High_Gravity[/MENTION] @Ringel5 [MENTION=28132]Dot Com[/MENTION] [MENTION=13805]Againsheila[/MENTION] [MENTION=20155]paperview[/MENTION] [MENTION=18990]Barb[/MENTION] [MENTION=36767]Bloodrock44[/MENTION] [MENTION=38085]Noomi[/MENTION] [MENTION=31362]gallantwarrior[/MENTION] [MENTION=24208]Spoonman[/MENTION] [MENTION=18905]Sherry[/MENTION] [MENTION=36422]blackhawk[/MENTION] [MENTION=21357]SFC Ollie[/MENTION] [MENTION=38146]Dajjal[/MENTION] @Nozmo King [MENTION=37250]aaronleland[/MENTION] [MENTION=25505]Jroc[/MENTION]


Would appreciate it if you guys would talk this link up so we can get some good flow of information here... Thx!
 
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Foxfyre

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Looks interesting and impressive Stat. Don't have time to do exploring now as we are expecting the first of our holiday house guests today, but I have subscribed to the thread and will no doubt get back to it.
 

longknife

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Yes, a VERY detail study of VOTER REGISTRATIONS!

But, I can't find anywhere where it details the actual numbers and affiliations of those WHO VOTED!

That is the key to any election. How well registered voters are motivated to go to the polls and cast their votes.

And it doesn't detail how many of those who voted even bothered to fill out a complete ballot. Many people go to the polls for one or two major choices and ignore the rest. Of, even worse, they vote along party lines without understanding the real stands and policies of the candidates. And, how many vote on judges without knowing their records? Or vote on initiatives without reading the summaries?

While the author of this stead did indeed conduct a great deal of research, it is not the most telling data on what really affects the outcome of elections.

Thanks anyhow for posting it. :eusa_angel:
 

Samson

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Two interesting points.

The blog author is not from the USA.

There is a breakout between "% Independents" and "% no party affiliation" in some states: I've always considered the definition of independent = no party affiliation? At any rate, the % no party affiliation definition seems to carry more weight in this data. Most interesting is where there is the largest % no party aff = OH????!!! Who would have thunk it? NIETHER PARTY is terribly strong in this "battleground" state: Why?

The other major piece of data seems to answer the question: What is the primary difference between Dems and Repubs.

In and around Washington D.C., and in more densely populated states we find most registered voters are Dems.

Further away from DC, and in less populated states, we find more Repubs.

IOW the more need for social services to support larger populations, the more Dems.
 
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Statistikhengst

Statistikhengst

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Yes, a VERY detail study of VOTER REGISTRATIONS!

But, I can't find anywhere where it details the actual numbers and affiliations of those WHO VOTED!

That is the key to any election. How well registered voters are motivated to go to the polls and cast their votes.

And it doesn't detail how many of those who voted even bothered to fill out a complete ballot. Many people go to the polls for one or two major choices and ignore the rest. Of, even worse, they vote along party lines without understanding the real stands and policies of the candidates. And, how many vote on judges without knowing their records? Or vote on initiatives without reading the summaries?

While the author of this stead did indeed conduct a great deal of research, it is not the most telling data on what really affects the outcome of elections.

Thanks anyhow for posting it. :eusa_angel:
Hello, [MENTION=39846]longknife[/MENTION] - and welcome to this thread.

The bolded: that is because the principle of the secret ballot still applies. I know of no state in the USA that publishes this kind of information. Take a look if you like, but you will find it nowhere. No state publishs a report like:

"Today, 64.56 percent of Iowans went to the polls, 42.17% of them were registered Democrats, 41,08% were registered Republicans and the rest were unaffiliated voters"

statistics like that simply are not collected and/or published.


The best we can do is to take the last VR before an election, use the actual results and also look at the VT (voter turnout) percentage. States, once the actual canvass report is finalized and signed by the official in authority, all connections between a ballot an information as to how a specific person voted are to remain secret, it would actually be borderline illegal to do this. The next closest thing would be the exit polls, which often show a partisan distribution per state - but that is only a good guestimate.

The only state that comes close to doing what you are suggesting is Ohio - something I mentioned in the report, and also something that comes dangerously close to violating the a citizens privacy. For Ohio releases everything: the person's name, address and party affiliation. Only, Ohio first assigns a new vote the designation of Unaffiliated until that person votes for the first time, so the designation D or R next to his or her name automatically tells us how he or she voted in the first election - every time after re-registering, which really is an invasion of privacy.

If there is a state that could probably do this best, it would be Pennsylvania, which already publishes weekly VR change reports in great detail, but without names. But as to the election results vis-a-vis the EXACT partisan breakdown of that particular electorate on that day? You will find this data nowhere.

Also, the data you are mentioning still does not indicate motivation, only performance.

Hope those thoughts helped.
 
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Statistikhengst

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Two interesting points.

The blog author is not from the USA.

There is a breakout between "% Independents" and "% no party affiliation" in some states: I've always considered the definition of independent = no party affiliation? At any rate, the % no party affiliation definition seems to carry more weight in this data. Most interesting is where there is the largest % no party aff = OH????!!! Who would have thunk it? NIETHER PARTY is terribly strong in this "battleground" state: Why?

The other major piece of data seems to answer the question: What is the primary difference between Dems and Repubs.

In and around Washington D.C., and in more densely populated states we find most registered voters are Dems.

Further away from DC, and in less populated states, we find more Repubs.

IOW the more need for social services to support larger populations, the more Dems.
[MENTION=21821]Samson[/MENTION]

The blog author is an American who just lives somewhere else right now. :)

As for independent vs. 3rd/4th party vs. unaffliated, different states use different terms, but almost all us "unaffiliated" for voters who have declared no party affiliation, which to most people means "Independent".

Only one state in the mix does not do this: Lousiana. Go check the stats for Louisiana and you will see around 27% for "other". The category "other" covers all other small parties that are officially registered in that state with the SOS/BOE and for which people have indicated a preference on their voter registration.

As for Ohio, as I said, the statistic is useless, for the very reason I wrote. BTW, Ohio is my home state, I come from there.

Hope that information helps.
 
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Statistikhengst

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It's a starting point. Not the entire tale.

Correct. Spot on.

But collecting this kind of stuff and establishing a baseline helps us to compare to the correct time frame in the past, which would, according to our current system, be four years into the past, if possible, because voters behave differently vis-a-vis registration in off years as opposed to major election years.
 

JoeB131

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Stat, some very interesting stuff, but here's a question.

How are dead voters removed from the rolls?

Avoiding any Chicago "Graveyard Vote" jokes, when I worked for Tammy Duckworth's campaign last year, part of my job was to call voters who had pulled Democratic ballots some time in the last few dozen elections. Generally, call them up, remind them the election was upcoming, and Joe Walsh was a douchebag.

That said, a lot of these people were in their late 80's and 90's, and the phones for them had been long disconnected. Logical conclusion, they died and their families turned off their phones.
 
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Statistikhengst

Statistikhengst

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Stat, some very interesting stuff, but here's a question.

How are dead voters removed from the rolls?

Avoiding any Chicago "Graveyard Vote" jokes, when I worked for Tammy Duckworth's campaign last year, part of my job was to call voters who had pulled Democratic ballots some time in the last few dozen elections. Generally, call them up, remind them the election was upcoming, and Joe Walsh was a douchebag.

That said, a lot of these people were in their late 80's and 90's, and the phones for them had been long disconnected. Logical conclusion, they died and their families turned off their phones.

I can give you the easiest answer of them all, and it is totally truthful: each state gets to decide how to do this.

Most do it by having an active / inactive file. A voter who has been registered but does not vote in the last one or two most recent elections gets moved from active to inactive status - and a letter is usually sent. In many states, if a person is on inactive status for more than one year, then he is automatically dropped from the rolls. But this is all a little messy and invariably, a small number of dead people are still on the rolls in every state. Actually, it is absolutely unavoidable, as there are even people who die right on election day or the day before.

In Montgomery County, OH, some workers from the BOE always kept an eye on the obituaries and then removed cards for voters accordingly. I am sure that in many small counties, this kind of thing probably happens. But because of Federalism, each state gets to decide how to do this kind of housekeeping work.

Of course, this would all be easier were there a national ID system and one database for voting - then the prospect of any kind of fraud at all would be pretty much null. With a national ID system, people who just turned 18 could automatically be registered and given a chance to declare a party preference or none at all, and should a voter move from one state to another, the number would always stay the same. I wanted to put out a huge thread about electioneering this weekend, but this thread had priority and then triple extra work in my field fell into my lap Friday, and twice today. So, I will get to it maybe tomorrow, maybe after Christmas.

Glad you liked the analysis. Hope this information helped.
 

SFC Ollie

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In Mahoning county OH there are people on the voting roles who have been dead for 4 years. I've seen their names in the book when I go vote....
 

LoneLaugher

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In Mahoning county OH there are people on the voting roles who have been dead for 4 years. I've seen their names in the book when I go vote....
I predict that your anecdotal evidence will be of little interest to the statistician.
 
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Statistikhengst

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In Mahoning county OH there are people on the voting roles who have been dead for 4 years. I've seen their names in the book when I go vote....
I predict that your anecdotal evidence will be of little interest to the statistician.

Why? I already just wrote one or two posts above that it is inevitable that some dead people are probably on voter rolls in every state. Reading and comprehension is YOUR FRIEND!

Information pretty much always interests me. Attacks from partisan hacks who don't even know me, less so...
 

LoneLaugher

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OK

Dead people are voting in Ohio. It's true.

Reding comprehension is cool. So is knowing when one is and is not being attacked.
 
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SFC Ollie

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In Mahoning county OH there are people on the voting roles who have been dead for 4 years. I've seen their names in the book when I go vote....

Active file, or inactive file?
Active, In the book where if they show up they sign their name and vote.... Of course here in this little village the poll workers know everyone. They actually pointed it out to me when I asked if my son who moved back to Germany was still listed. He is......
 
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Statistikhengst

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In Mahoning county OH there are people on the voting roles who have been dead for 4 years. I've seen their names in the book when I go vote....

Active file, or inactive file?
Active, In the book where if they show up they sign their name and vote.... Of course here in this little village the poll workers know everyone. They actually pointed it out to me when I asked if my son who moved back to Germany was still listed. He is......

You can always ask or point it out. Also, check out the city ordinances about this, for it is possible that in your jurisdiction that a poll worker is actualy not allowed to remove a name until receiving official notification from next of kin. Which is, of course, a problem if the deceased had no relatives....

I would appreciate it if you would look into that.
 

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