- Nov 21, 2013
- Reaction score
- deep within the statistical brain!!
Every bit of this data is at this link:
Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond: Complete Voter Registration Statistics (USA), End of 2013
The data tables are way too large to port over to USMB, it would be just an awful mess, so the best thing to do is to go to the link and read and enjoy. Once you start reading, you will get a feel for why this stuff can be helpful to electioneering.
I have completed a second major study of voter registration in the USA. Well, „completed“ is not accurate, for the stats are constantly changing. Rather, I can now provide a very reliable snapshot of one point in history and compare it as best as possible to the same time frame four years ago and again between the GE 2012 and the GE 2008. These are the RV statistics for the Union in December 2013. I will be updating this data every six months and posting a new report each time. For that is the entire idea – to follow and note changes in the electorate in the time leading up to the GE 2012.
Because of Federalism, there is no standard system in the USA for recording statistics pertaining to elections (voter registration, voter turnout, election results) according to any criteria. This makes getting information about Voter Registration somewhat of an adventure, and also, because not all states have -or publish- voter registration by party affiliation, it is impossible to come up with complete partisan statistics for the Union.
It gets even more adventurous as many State SOS or BOE or Governor's or Lt. Governor's websites are constantly moving data into archives and former links then go defunct. Different states have different ways of terming things, but the end result is just the same. Whether a state calls is a „registered voter database“, a „voter registration file“ or „roll of voters“, it all means the same thing. Some states publish only the number of voters registered, while others publish them by partisan affiliation. Some publish VR stats only by number and race and/or gender an/or age. Some states publish VR stats every week, others every month, others once quarterly, others only per election, etc. So, it's a mixed bag, to say the least.
I did this analysis once already in 2011 and as of now, will be doing it 2 times a year until 2016, and then, quarterly.
What I have done is to research the websites for all 50 states plus DC and included links to all the current VR totals in this excel table:
1.) Complete Table. (complete raw data for everything)...
The study is not trying to make any partisan point. It only measures the actual data and compares it to four years before and also makes a comparison, by state between the GE 2012 and the GE 2008. There are some trends that can be spotted and that makes it worth the read.Hard facts:
Currently, there are 184,163,607 registered voters in the USA plus DC. Now, we know that from day to day, people are coming on and off the rolls all over the place via death, moving, coming of voting age, etc., but those things generally cancel each other out and daily changes on the national level would then be pretty micoscopic. So, it is fair to say that right now, 184 million are registered.
Of those 184,603,607, 112,624,462 (61.15%) registered voters come from the 31 states plus DC that provide VR statistics by partisan affiliation.
The other 71,539,145 (38.85) registered voters come from 17 states that do not provide VR statistics by party affiliation, but rather, publish a VR total.*/**
The picture will always be somewhat incomplete as ND has no voter registration at all and MS provides no VR stats.*
Here one of many maps:
The explanation for that map is at the blogspot link.
I am not saying in any way that VR is a predictor of elections. Indeed, WV, KY, LA and OK prove that partisan registration does not necessarily translate to votes at the ballot box for one party or another. In the cases of WV, KY, LA and OK, we are with great certainty talking about conservative Democrats who are more in line with the Republicans on a number of issues but have maintained their former party status. However, VR studies in conjunction with knowing the electoral history of a state, can give us an excellent idea where that state stands and if battleground tendencies are present.
The report then goes into depth about Wyoming, DC, Rhode Island, Arizona, California, Ohio, West Virginia and Oklahoma, all for different reasons that make sense at the link.
At the end of the report, I praise a number of state SOS website for good work in publishing such statistics.
I would encourage everyone to take time and read the analysis, the data-gathering for which took about one month of time (in my spare time), including a double-check and clean-up, so to speak - and then go to the excel link and check out your own state.
There is just tons of information here that could be of lots of interest to a lot of people.
If you have a question about any one link, or any specific state or wish to add information that you think may be missing, feel free to do so.
This is my Christmas gift to USMB. Update coming in May-June of 2014.
And BTW, if you have not already:
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Would appreciate it if you guys would talk this link up so we can get some good flow of information here... Thx!