Coffee

[Cellblock2429]

Do as you please...but I'd begin taking profits today...both Robusta and Arabicas are up today...we are at historical highs. (Unusual for a surplus product)

There is actually plenty of Robusta beans. Arabicas is the one that is in shortage as that's the preferred American coffee. 80% of American adults drink coffee. (The rest of the world drinks tea... coffee is a more recent fad for them)

But still... don't get caught watching the paint dry today. Coffee is volatile.

/——-/ Don’t get me wrong, I understand the shortage of beans, but the $21 spread was wacky. This morning it’s still high but now only $3.21 difference. Normally a spread is about 10-15 cents. All I’m saying is to be careful if you place a trade. This screenshot is from this morning on my Think or Swim account.

 

[JohnDB]

/——-/ Don’t get me wrong, I understand the shortage of beans, but the $21 spread was wacky. This morning it’s still high but now only $3.21 difference. Normally a spread is about 10-15 cents. All I’m saying is to be careful if you place a trade. This screenshot is from this morning on my Think or Swim account.

Yeah...in AH trading you can get phenomenal prices from the inactivity and slip. JO is not a well traded ETN. (No named manager but the employees seem to be doing just fine)

Some people are seeing another 25% increase in coffee futures. And it might happen. Everyone has noticed and the FOMO crowd has shown up in droves.

So where I'm taking profits others might get a bit more $$$ out of the deal. It's great to see the price rise. But the truth is you only made money when you sell.

And you only make money by doing what everyone else is not. Watch for the top to get Shakey and for the extra long wick on the candle (on top) and then hit that reverse button for the ride down.
The Brazilian Real is around 5.16 this morning....so they are selling it if they got it. Problem is that they really don't have it to sell.

 

[Cellblock2429]

Yeah...in AH trading you can get phenomenal prices from the inactivity and slip. JO is not a well traded ETN. (No named manager but the employees seem to be doing just fine)

Some people are seeing another 25% increase in coffee futures. And it might happen. Everyone has noticed and the FOMO crowd has shown up in droves.

So where I'm taking profits others might get a bit more $$$ out of the deal. It's great to see the price rise. But the truth is you only made money when you sell.

And you only make money by doing what everyone else is not. Watch for the top to get Shakey and for the extra long wick on the candle (on top) and then hit that reverse button for the ride down.
The Brazilian Real is around 5.16 this morning....so they are selling it if they got it. Problem is that they really don't have it to sell.

/——-/ I bought 100 shares of JO @ $53.45 The spread was only 16 cents. We’ll see what happens. Thanks for the tip.

 

[JohnDB]

/——-/ I bought 100 shares of JO @ $53.45 The spread was only 16 cents. We’ll see what happens. Thanks for the tip.

No guts no glory eh?
Good luck!
Like I said...I've taken profits...(I've been long for a while now.)
And it's got the potential for another 25% rise. But the risk is a bit too much for me at this point. I'm going to sit back and wait for the pullback...the full assessment for damage isn't in yet....and when that comes in I'll jump again. (Based on Forex for my position)

 

[Cellblock2429]

No guts no glory eh?
Good luck!
Like I said...I've taken profits...(I've been long for a while now.)
And it's got the potential for another 25% rise. But the risk is a bit too much for me at this point. I'm going to sit back and wait for the pullback...the full assessment for damage isn't in yet....and when that comes in I'll jump again. (Based on Forex for my position)

/——/ $5k was all I was willing to risk. I can also sell a monthly covered call for some $$

 

[JohnDB]

/——/ $5k was all I was willing to risk. I can also sell a monthly covered call for some $$

I don't blame you one bit.
But at these FOMO prices I'd have a finger hovering over that reverse button.

Look at the charts...it goes down as fast as it goes up. No rolling hills in price action. But the rolling valley was my clue about what was coming...it only had one direction to go. So I've been long for a while. (Since this past spring)
I've been yammering about it here for the past two days. (A few hints before that though)
FOJC, Cotton, and sugar are going to be rising in sympathy...and if we get a nasty hurricane this year the FOJC ought to go crazy high too. So I'm watching the weather. I'm thinking that the orange crop is the next most vulnerable for some action.

The setup is looking good.

 

[JohnDB]

Wild Weather in Biggest Coffee Exporter Sparks Price Surge

(Bloomberg) -- The world’s biggest coffee supplier is facing some of the coldest weather in more than 25 years, dimming hopes for the harvest and threatening to raise prices for the popular beverage.Temperatures in Brazil’s coffee-growing regions fell below zero Celsius (32 Fahrenheit) for hours...

finance.yahoo.com

Good article explaining more....

 

[JohnDB]

/——-/ I bought 100 shares of JO @ $53.45 The spread was only 16 cents. We’ll see what happens. Thanks for the tip.

I see that it's risen to 54.18....where ICE has gone home for the day (up 9%+) the price of JO might climb to match that at some point.
Either way you made some good money today.
Congratulations

 

[JohnDB]

JO closed today at 54.82...a new ATH record...up just shy of 10% on the day.

I'm happy for myself and all who participated. Some think it's got at least another $5+ in it...I'm not as certain.
But come August I'll be back in it again for the fall runup and winter forecast for next year's crop...all the drought and freezing temperatures have surely damaged the coffee trees.

 

[JohnDB]

And up another 5% premarket...

 

[JohnDB]

Coffee is up another 10% this morning.
JO is lagging at 8%. (Like usual)

So far everyone who has paid attention has made outstanding money.

Arabicas are at 209 this morning...

My plan (yours can differ greatly) is when we get another day like Friday where it dips a bit is I will buy deeper in and then ride it through September and November. It's going to hit around 300 by then. Then I'll be done.

 

[JohnDB]

Study: Regular coffee consumption linked to lower risk of COVID-19 infection - Boston News, Weather, Sports | WHDH 7News

(WHDH) — Those who drink coffee on a regular basis have a lower risk of becoming infected with COVID-19, according to a new study.A study<a class="excerpt-read-more" href="https://whdh.com/news/study-regular-coffee-consumption-linked-to-lower-risk-of-covid-19-infection/">Read More</a>

whdh.com

If only this was true...lol...

 

[Likkmee]

Study: Regular coffee consumption linked to lower risk of COVID-19 infection - Boston News, Weather, Sports | WHDH 7News

(WHDH) — Those who drink coffee on a regular basis have a lower risk of becoming infected with COVID-19, according to a new study.A study<a class="excerpt-read-more" href="https://whdh.com/news/study-regular-coffee-consumption-linked-to-lower-risk-of-covid-19-infection/">Read More</a>

whdh.com

If only this was true...lol...

Joey never got covid. He was a mayor once.Lots of coffee !

Excess coffee consumption could increase risk of dementia

It a favourite first-order for the day but while a quick coffee may perk us up new research from the University of South Australia showed that too much coul

www.bignewsnetwork.com

 

[JohnDB]

I'm still watching and waiting for the results of the surveys....

This year's crop is almost over...there's the last bit that comes in the Fall/winter that gets usually the most expensive...

But next year's crop is the real question...

Keep an eye on Sept 22 coffee futures...those are the ones that are going to be the most expensive here soon when the survey is finished...

Coffee trees take 5 years minimum to begin producing. So it's not exactly like a normal thing....I'm looking to see if next year's crop will be sufficient to supply all the demand. Especially since China now appears to be enjoying the stuff.

 

[JohnDB]

Might be time to hit that reverse button and ride it down...

 

[JohnDB]

Nope...the margin on coffee futures became raised today...
Basically to slow down down the rise in prices and to stop the price hikes from becoming a battle of credit lines.

Meaning that the available coffee is limited and they know it. AKA...a shortage.

 

[Baron Von Murderpaws]

I'll buy a box to keep on hand.

I love coffee, but I don't need it to live. Usually, anything coffee flavored will kick the "need" for it.

I like the coffee pods. Big Lots has boxes of them cheap, from brand called Victor Allen. Really good for a lesser brand, plus they have flavored coffees too. A 14-18 pod box is only about $13.00, and a 32-40 pod box is usually around $20.00........so I will probably buy one of those and keep in the cupboard.





Oh, and don't forget about chocolate!! Chocolate is in the same boat as coffee!

 

[JohnDB]

I'll buy a box to keep on hand.

I love coffee, but I don't need it to live. Usually, anything coffee flavored will kick the "need" for it.

I like the coffee pods. Big Lots has boxes of them cheap, from brand called Victor Allen. Really good for a lesser brand, plus they have flavored coffees too. A 14-18 pod box is only about $13.00, and a 32-40 pod box is usually around $20.00........so I will probably buy one of those and keep in the cupboard.





Oh, and don't forget about chocolate!! Chocolate is in the same boat as coffee!

Currently coffee is in free fall...based on those who really don't understand the coffee market. The frost this week was not as severe as thought.

But that in no way actually reflects the damage done to the coffee trees...

Coffee is going into shortage instead of surplus. Mostly because next year's crop is going to be much smaller than originally thought. Between the two frosts and the drought the smallest trees are gone.... needing to be replaced. The older trees will survive but not produce as much.

A coffee tree needs 5 years of growth to produce...these aren't peach trees here....these are coffee cherries.

By November coffee is going to hit somewhere around $300. Just is....today it's hovering around 185 I think last time I looked... waiting for another round of dropping and then I'm going in.

The December crop is notorious for being expensive... just watch and see.

Cocoa is another story. Lots of beans but very limited processing means. There's a surplus of beans....but the processing is still limited to a handful of places. (Kinda like OSB board)

So I'm not long Cocoa. Just coffee.

And I'm not touching OJ with a ten foot pole. Too many places grow oranges. Hard to actually get a firm understanding and accounting.

 

[my2¢]

Last week my wife mentioned that the coffee she usually purchased from Amazon had taken quite a leap in price. However it was on sale at our local grocery store and so we stocked up - luckily, by what I'm reading here.

From the investment standpoint, I never had the courage to invest in commodities.... and this old dog isn't about to learn any new tricks.

 

[marvin martian]

For those who don't really follow the futures market....

There's a real problem shaking out...
Brazil is the largest producer of Arabica beans...largest producer of coffee period.
Vietnam produces most of the Robusta coffee....others include central America, asia and Africa and even some of the islands produce some coffee....

Now between the political crisis and riots in Columbia and the horrible weather of drought and freezing temperatures in Brazil....and the breakdown of society in Africa....and the lack of shipping containers for Asian coffee....for the first time there's going to be a shortage instead of a surplus. Usually coffee is an exercise in the Forex trading... currencies against the Dollar or BP Stirling.

Not now...

Might want to fill the cupboard and buy some futures. Just saying....and the only ETF/ETN covering it is JO....

Take a look

I've got a small, independent source in Mexico. Incredible shade-grown coffee. PM if interested, I'll only mark it up 500%