Coffee

[JohnDB]

Last week my wife mentioned that the coffee she usually purchased from Amazon had taken quite a leap in price. However it was on sale at our local grocery store and so we stocked up - luckily, by what I'm reading here.

From the investment standpoint, I never had the courage to invest in commodities.... and this old dog isn't about to learn any new tricks.

ETFs and ETNs are my recommendation for the average trader/investor.
GROW or especially JO are usually the best for most people....they have increased the margin on coffee several times lately to curb the credit investing in coffee... because we are going to see historical highs here soon.

Most coffee seen in retail markets is a blend of both Arabicas and Robusta coffee from various places to create a "unique" flavor after roasting.

Arabicas are the more expensive beans and usually the dominant coffee drunk in America. (Coffee House anyone?)

Robusta coffee is usually blended more heavily into your European coffees and retail coffees and it has quite a bit more caffeine than Arabicas.

Vietnam is the largest producer of Robusta coffee...however they are down 11% in production and can't seem to find any shipping containers to ship coffee out in.

Hawaiian coffee is toast by the rust virus this year and next. Gonna be a few years before they come back. They caught the virus from African plants apparently which were smuggled in and planted in the fields...those few dollars in savings has cost everyone thousands of dollars now.

So...the shortage is going to last a few years...get used to expensive coffee for a while.

 

[JohnDB]

I've jumped back in...ought to work out as I think that it's going to slowly creep up to a peak here soon...the rainy season has ended and now as we head into the dry season.
I'm thinking that many of the flowers went early on account of the drought and got bit by the frost...so the winter cherries are toast. Defoliation was severe from the freezing temperatures. The current harvest is pitiful and almost complete but the winter one is going to be worse.

Coffee is currently at 178....I'm thinking that it's going to reach 300 before it's over.

 

[JohnDB]

Ten million bags are the most preliminary estimates for damages....or ⅓ of what Americans drink on an annual basis.

Yeah....hang on tight....this is going to be a wild ride.

 

[JohnDB]

And coffee closed today above an important technical level... meaning it's broken out past a level of resistance.

Meaning get ready for the MOON.

 

[JohnDB]

Arabicas are up 1% in premarket trading and Robusta up again about 1%.

Both after their respective dips on Friday to relieve pressure of being extended...

But I don't think that this 1% is going to hold out for long....I'm thinking that there's going to be a huge spike as investors jump back in. (From the stampede out last week when shorting didn't work out so well)

So...I'm expecting a lot of longs to join back into the softs market as sugar and the related Ethanol are spiking... same with OJ.

Cocoa? Pump and dump.... wouldn't touch it.
Cotton? Another pump and dump.

Coffee is spiking SOON.... probably reach around 300 and currently it's at 184. Get in where you fit in.

 

[justinacolmena]

I love coffee, but I don't need it to live. Usually, anything coffee flavored will kick the "need" for it.

I agree. Usually it's fine, nothing wrong with it, but sometimes that caffeine has a little bit too much extra kick, one cup of joe makes a person just sick puking all over the place with a bloody sledgehammer hangover headache all week long.

 

[JohnDB]

Coffee is making another run up...just saying might want to board the FOMO train.

 

[justinacolmena]

Coffee is making another run up...just saying might want to board the FOMO train.

Price gouging by drug cartels, and communist party politics in Central and South America.

 

[JohnDB]

Price gouging by drug cartels, and communist party politics in Central and South America.

Coffee Prices Remain Firm on Crop Concerns in Brazil

Not really...
There is some manipulation going on but the manipulators keep getting caught and losing their money...short covering and lowered amounts of uncovered margin have removed most of the manipulators.

Plus we are looking at an actual shortage possible for coffee happening.

 

[justinacolmena]

Not really...
There is some manipulation going on but the manipulators keep getting caught and losing their money...short covering and lowered amounts of uncovered margin have removed most of the manipulators

I hate short sellers. I go long on an investment, and somebody sells me stock they don't own or it's on margin or it doesn't exist in reality and there's a substitute payment in lieu of a dividend, if any, reportable as such to the IRS. And there's no voting rights to the imaginary shares, either.

 

[JohnDB]

I hate short sellers. I go long on an investment, and somebody sells me stock they don't own or it's on margin or it doesn't exist in reality and there's a substitute payment in lieu of a dividend, if any, reportable as such to the IRS. And there's no voting rights to the imaginary shares, either.

Well I am not going to advocate for shorting coffee this year... maybe next year at some point...but not for 6-8 months at a minimum...but I'm not sure even then.

This is why I'm advocating going long on coffee futures... currently with JO (a coffee futures based ETN) it plays with the third contract out...march and may. (Date shifts)

So...yes... coffee is going up and probably going to rise to around 300... currently floating just under 200.

 

[JohnDB]

Coffee (Arabicas ) is breaking out again today... stochastic is at 78%. Perfect storm for a huge breakout. (Wycoff spring)

Robustas enters the overbought zone and is due for a rest...

But the defoliation and dry warm temps are not healthy for the all important flowering month...soil conditions are at less than 10% moisture when they need 60% for growth and production... meaning that the next crop is screwed. The only possible saving grace is a late flowering period if abnormal heavy rains began tomorrow (not in the forecast either)
JO is up over 54/share today. PT is 82.

 

[Baron Von Murderpaws]

I've been watching prices on everything. I really haven't noticed any increases in coffee around here. If the prices have risen, it wasn't noticable.

 

[JohnDB]

I've been watching prices on everything. I really haven't noticed any increases in coffee around here. If the prices have risen, it wasn't noticable.

So far ICE reporting inventories haven't been affected...but I expect that this will change this winter...

Green coffee runs usually around $1/lb. Currently we are hovering just under $2 and expecting to go to $3/lb.

Minas Gerais is the coffee growing region in Brazil that grows Arabicas beans...(usually marketed as Columbian coffee) everywhere else grows Robusta coffee.

They are supposed to start their flowering season this month...but it's going to be a pathetic year between defoliation from frost and dry weather. There are a few showers forecast but not in sufficient amounts of rainfall.

Vietnam actually grows the most Robusta coffee but is currently under martial law and their ports are closed...and they weren't really shipping much coffee as the shipping containers are in too tight of supply making it too expensive to purchase and ship out.

Retail Prices will likely see the effects here soon...just be patient.

 

[Baron Von Murderpaws]

 

[Baron Von Murderpaws]

I've been watching prices on everything. I really haven't noticed any increases in coffee around here. If the prices have risen, it wasn't noticable.

Adding to my previous comment............

Prices have now "risen".

I used to buy the Community Coffee pods at $4.00 per box (12 in each box).
As of early 2022, price skyrocketed by DOUBLE. Now the same coffee pods are $8.00+.

Some stores have them for $5.00, but the price on average is $8.00 per box now.
The big Brand Names have doubled in some store, tripled in others.

 

[JohnDB]

Adding to my previous comment............

Prices have now "risen".

I used to buy the Community Coffee pods at $4.00 per box (12 in each box).
As of early 2022, price skyrocketed by DOUBLE. Now the same coffee pods are $8.00+.

Some stores have them for $5.00, but the price on average is $8.00 per box now.
The big Brand Names have doubled in some store, tripled in others.

Now gee....
I wonder who predicted that last year?

I wonder if he made any money by investing in coffee futures. I wonder if anyone thought that the predictor was full of it and just ignored him?

Oh well....we just don't know these things and maybe never will....they are just too big of mysteries to solve.