The western world's leading climatologists have confirmed recent reports of a detrimental global climatic change. The stability of most nations is based upon a dependable source of food, but this stability will not be possible under the new climatic era.
Since the 1960's, a number of foreboding climatic predictions has appeared in various climatic, meteorological, and geological periodicals, consistently following one of two themes.
- A global climatic change was underway
- This climatic change would create worldwide agriculture failures in the 1970's.
By the fall of 1973 the Office of Research and Development (ORD) had obtained sufficient evidence to alert the Agency analysts that forecasts of an ongoing global climate change were reasonable and worthy of attention. ORD also determined that it was feasible to begin the development of forecasting techniques and impact assessment. However, Agency analysts remained skeptical, noting that the mix of approaches (Wisconsin, Scripps, RAND, NCAR) and the scientific personalities pursuing them prevented a clear explanation of w
hat the recongnized authorities were agreeing on.
To resolve these issues, the principal investigators representing the various research approaches convened in San Diego in April 1974 to discuss these three specific topics:
- The state of climatological forecasting: identification of elements of the methodology wherein there is some consensus, current trends in development and new approaches
- Prospects for developing near term applications of climatology for Agency interests
- Recommendations for high and low risk approaches for long range climatological models development.
For two days they argued, discussed and defended their approaches to climatic forecasting and the impact of climate change.
by the second day a consensus was reached on the following fundamental issues.
- A global climatic change is taking place.
- We will not soon return to the climate patterns of the recent past.
- For the future, there is a high probability of increased variability in an number of features of climate that are importance to crop growth.
- The most promising long range (1-5years) approach to climate forecasting appears to be the statistical synoptic approach. the consensus expressed caution in using these projections without an attempt to develop some physical understanding of the underlying weather forecasting mechanisms.
The conference participants unanimously recommended that the clear need for a long range perdiction dictated the establishment of an Operational Diagnostic Center charged with developing global forecasting techniques and for servicing the Government's needs for one to five year forecasts.
National Climate Plan
In the summer of 1973, the Wisconsin Plan for Climate Research was presented to the National Security Council. NOAA and the National Science Foundation were requested to review this plan to suggest how it should be implemented. The Wisconsin plan stimulated activity in many agencies.
In the Fall of 1973, three agencies sin the government became active in the development of climatic research plans: NSF, NOAA and the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Sciences established the Committee on Climatic Variation, chaired by Dr Larry Gates. The committed members completed tier recommendations for a National Climatic Research Plan in June of 1974. This plan is presently under assessment by the National Academy of Sciences. Its final approval is expected late this year. Early in 1974 NOAA began developing a plan which would include a Center for Climatic and Environmental Assessment as suggested by preliminary recommendations from the National Academy of Sciences Committee. This plan would allow NOAA to respond rapidly to the needs of government agencies that are concerned with impact of climatic factors on both a national and global scale.
In the spring of 1974, the Director of Polar Studies Division of NSF developed a plan to establish a center for Climatic Research as well was to provide funding to appropriate academic centers.
Both of these plans have been incorporated into what is now called the National Climate Plan. NOAA would be responsible for developing methods for practical climate forecasting as well as developing techniques applicable for the assessment of national and international food production. NSF would provide support to responsible academic centers and establish a Center for Climatic Research. This center would operate in a similar manner as the present National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) at Boulder, Colorado.
The national Climatic Plan is presently under review by NOAA and the NSF. They expect to seek approval from the Office of Management and Budget in the fall of 1974 for FY 1976 program funding.
CONCLUSIONS
Leaders in climatology and economics are in agreement that a climatic change is taking place and that it has already caused major economic problems throughout the world. As it becomes more apparent to the nations around the world that the current trend is indeed a long term reality, new alignments will be made among nations to insure a secure supply of food resources. Assessing the impact of climatic change on major nations will, in the future occupy a major portion of the Intelligence Community's assets.
