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CIA Gives Grim Warning on European Prospects
Nicholas Christian
http://news.scotsman.com/uk.cfm?id=56762005
THE CIA has predicted that the European Union will break-up within 15 years unless it radically reforms its ailing welfare systems.
The report by the intelligence agency, which forecasts how the world will look in 2020, warns that Europe could be dragged into economic decline by its ageing population. It also predicts the end of Nato and post-1945 military alliances.
In a devastating indictment of EU economic prospects, the report warns: "The current EU welfare state is unsustainable and the lack of any economic revitalisation could lead to the splintering or, at worst, disintegration of the EU, undermining its ambitions to play a heavyweight international role."
It adds that the EUs economic growth rate is dragged down by Germany and its restrictive labour laws. Reforms there - and in France and Italy to lesser extents - remain key to whether the EU as a whole can break out of its "slow-growth pattern".
Reflecting growing fears in the US that the pain of any proper reform would be too much to bear, the report adds that the experts it consulted "are dubious that the present political leadership is prepared to make even this partial break, believing a looming budgetary crisis in the next five years would be the more likely trigger for reform".
The EU is also set for a looming demographic crisis because of a drop in birth rates and increased longevity, with devastating economic consequences.
The report says: "Either European countries adapt their workforces, reform their social welfare, education and tax systems, and accommodate growing immigrant populations [chiefly from Muslim countries] or they face a period of protracted economic stasis."
As a result of the increased immigration needed, the report predicts that Europes Muslim population is set to increase from around 13% today to between 22% and 37% of the population by 2025, potentially triggering tensions.
The report predicts that Americas relationships with Europe will be "dramatically altered" over the next 15 years, in a move away from post-Second World War institutions. Nato could disappear and be replaced by increased EU action.
"The EU, rather than Nato, will increasingly become the primary institution for Europe, and the role Europeans shape for themselves on the world stage is most likely to be projected through it," the report adds. "Whether the EU will develop an army is an open question."
Defence spending by individual European countries, including the UK, France, and Germany, is likely to fall further behind China and other countries over the next 15 years. Collectively these countries will outspend all others except the US and possibly China.
The expected next technological revolution will involve the convergence of nano, bio, information and materials technology and will further bolster China and Indias prospects, the study predicts. Both countries are investing in basic research in these fields and are well placed to be leaders. But whereas the US will retain its overall lead, the report warns "Europe risks slipping behind Asia in some of these technologies".
For Europe, an increasing preference for natural gas may reinforce regional relationships, such as those with Russia or North Africa, given the inter-dependence of pipeline delivery, the report argues. But this means the EU will have to deal with Russia, which the report also warns "faces a severe demographic crisis resulting from low birth rates, poor medical care and a potentially explosive Aids situation".
Russia also borders an "unstable region" in the Caucasus and Central Asia, "the effects of which - Muslim extremism, terrorism and endemic conflict - are likely to continue spilling over into Russia".
The report also largely en dorses forecasts that by 2020 Chinas gross domestic product will exceed that of individual western economic powers except for the US. Indias GDP will have overtaken or be overtaking European economies.
Because of the sheer size of Chinas and Indias populations their standard of living need not approach European and western levels to become important economic powers.
The economies of other developing countries, such as Brazil, could surpass all but the largest European countries by 2020.
The approaching demise of NATO has been evident since at least 2002. The French and Germans are doing everything they can to speed the irrelevance and dissolution of NATO. 2004's establishment of an EU Military Command shadowing the NATO Command in Brussels was the death knell of NATO. Unlike the 2020 NIE, I think it is highly unlikely that the EU will disintegrate. When will the EU become the heavyweight international player the French desire? At this point, the EU does not have the political will necessary to develop a significant military; but that will change. The post-WW2 American and EU cultural, political, and military confluence has dissolved; divergence is occurring rapidly and confrontation waits in the future.Kathianne said:Wow, that is devastating onedomino.It reflects what many of us have thought, though without proof. Great link!
onedomino said:The approaching demise of NATO has been evident since at least 2002. The French and Germans are doing everything they can to speed the irrelevance and dissolution of NATO. 2004's establishment of an EU Military Command shadowing the NATO Command in Brussels was the death knell of NATO. Unlike the 2020 NIE, I think it is highly unlikely that the EU will disintegrate. When will the EU become the heavyweight international player the French desire? At this point, the EU does not have the political will necessary to develop a significant military; but that will change. The post-WW2 American and EU cultural, political, and military confluence has dissolved; divergence is occurring rapidly and confrontation waits in the future.
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-Ukraine's Yushchenko Says He Wants to End Corruption, Join EU
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000085&sid=aSEQ.BY8yRJQ&refer=europe
Jan. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko said he aims to boost citizens' living standards, stamp out corruption and bring the nation of 47 million into the European Union after being sworn in as the country's third post-Soviet leader.
The 50 year-old father of five today took the helm one of Europe's poorest and most corrupt countries, a nation divided into east and west following a bitter election campaign. Yushchenko said his domestic agenda will focus on increasing employment, cutting taxes and battling corruption.
"We will destroy corruption and bring the economy out of the shadows,'' Yushchenko told tens of thousands of supporters gathered in freezing temperature in Kiev's Independence Square, many waving orange flags with his name written on them. "Business will be separated from power.'' (reported Yushchenko from the frozen wastes of hell)
Yushchenko takes over from Leonid Kuchma, 66, whose more than 10-year rule was marred by corruption and human rights violations. Ukraine was ranked 122nd out of 145 countries last year in Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index. The $60 billion economy is dominated by a handful of financial-industrial groups, including Interpipe, that acquired their wealth by gaining control of state assets.
Interpipe is run by Viktor Pinchuk, Kuchma's son-in-law.
Yushchenko has advocated improving the nation's relations with western Europe, and he returned to the theme today.
"Our history, economic prospects and the interest of the people gives a clear answer to the question, where we should seek our fate,'' Yushchenko said. "Our place is in the European Union, our goal is Ukraine in united Europe.'' (How long before Russia comes to this conclusion? 10-20 years? Never?)
East and West
Ukraine won't be a "buffer country'' between the west and the east of Europe, he said. "We will welcome our neighbors to the east and the west and sustain cooperation with'' them.
Ukraine is located between the European Union and Russia with most of Russia's exported gas to Western Europe crossing the country. The nation is also the world's seventh-largest steel producer and one of the six largest grain and fertilizer exporters.
Yushchenko was inaugurated in the Verkhovna Rada, or parliament, at about 12:30 p.m. before members of parliament and foreign dignitaries including U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell. The swearing in came after an assassination attempt against Yushchenko with dioxin and a two-month standoff over disputed election results.
One Goal
He took the oath of office with his right hand touching a 500 year-old bible written in old Slavonic, after which he kissed both it and the constitution. His family, including U.S.-born wife, looked on as deputies began chanting "Yushchenko.''
"The transfer of power has taken place - this is a big national victory,'' Yushchenko said inside the parliament after becoming president. "We have one goal: a wealthy and democratic Ukraine.''
Yushchenko defeated former Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych in a rerun of the second-round of elections on Dec. 26, receiving 51.99 percent of the vote compared with 44.2 percent for his opponent. A Nov. 21 vote giving victory to Yanukovych was declared fraudulent by the nation's Supreme Court.
Yanukovych, 53, sought closer ties with Russia, gathering the support of the Russian-speaking population in the nation's eastern regions. Yanukovych supporters, including 37-year-old Andrei Samolatov, a citizen of Russian descent, demonstrated in the capital's Independence Square today, voicing concern his children won't be able to study in Russian-language schools. Yushchenko sought to appeal to opponents in his inaugural remarks.
United Nation
"We are not divided by the languages we speak or by our beliefs,'' Yushchenko told the country. "We have become a united nation.''
EU-Russian relations became tense after the Nov. 21 vote, as EU leaders such as Polish President Aleksander Kwasniewski demanded new elections, while Russian President Vladimir Putin called the Nov. 21 elections free and fair and congratulated Yanukovych. Kwasniewski received one of the loudest rounds of applause among the foreign attendees at the inauguration ceremony.
Yushchenko's immediate domestic priority is to appoint a new prime minister and cabinet.
Candidates for the prime minister's post, cited by Ukrainian media, include: Yulia Timoshenko, 44, a former deputy prime minister and billionaire businesswoman; Petro Poroshenko, 39, a member of Yushchenko's Our Ukraine parliamentary alliance; former Prime Minister Anatoliy Kinakh, 50, head of Ukraine's Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs; and Oleksandr Moroz, 60, founder of the Socialist Party of Ukraine and a former parliament speaker.
