CBO Misses Its Obamacare Projection by 24 Million People

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weekly standard ^ | 3/28/16
Three years ago, on the eve of Obamacare’s implementation, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projected that President Obama's centerpiece legislation would result in an average of 201 million people having private health insurance in any given month of 2016. Now that 2016 is here, the CBO says that just 177 million people, on average, will have private health insurance in any given month of this year—a shortfall of 24 million people.

Indeed, based on the CBO's own numbers, it seems possible that Obamacare has actually reduced the number of people with private health insurance. In 2013, the CBO projected that, without Obamacare, 186 million people would be covered by private health insurance in 2016—160 million on employer-based plans, 26 million on individually purchased plans. The CBO now says that, with Obamacare, 177 million people will be covered by private health insurance in 2016—155 million on employer-based plans, 12 million on plans bought through Obamacare's government-run exchanges, and 9 million on other individually purchased plans (plus a rounding error of 1 million).

In other words, it would appear that a net 9 million people have lost their private health plans, thanks to Obamacare—with a net 5 million people having lost employer-based plans and a net 4 million people having lost individually purchased plans.

None of this is to say that fewer people have "coverage" under Obamacare—it's just not private coverage. In 2013, the CBO projected that 34 million people would be on Medicaid or CHIP (the Children's Health Insurance Program) in 2016. The CBO now says that 68 million people will be on Medicaid or CHIP in 2016—double its earlier estimate. It turns out that Obamacare is pretty much a giant Medicaid expansion.
 
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weekly standard ^ | 3/28/16
Three years ago, on the eve of Obamacare’s implementation, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projected that President Obama's centerpiece legislation would result in an average of 201 million people having private health insurance in any given month of 2016. Now that 2016 is here, the CBO says that just 177 million people, on average, will have private health insurance in any given month of this year—a shortfall of 24 million people.

Indeed, based on the CBO's own numbers, it seems possible that Obamacare has actually reduced the number of people with private health insurance. In 2013, the CBO projected that, without Obamacare, 186 million people would be covered by private health insurance in 2016—160 million on employer-based plans, 26 million on individually purchased plans. The CBO now says that, with Obamacare, 177 million people will be covered by private health insurance in 2016—155 million on employer-based plans, 12 million on plans bought through Obamacare's government-run exchanges, and 9 million on other individually purchased plans (plus a rounding error of 1 million).

In other words, it would appear that a net 9 million people have lost their private health plans, thanks to Obamacare—with a net 5 million people having lost employer-based plans and a net 4 million people having lost individually purchased plans.

None of this is to say that fewer people have "coverage" under Obamacare—it's just not private coverage. In 2013, the CBO projected that 34 million people would be on Medicaid or CHIP (the Children's Health Insurance Program) in 2016. The CBO now says that 68 million people will be on Medicaid or CHIP in 2016—double its earlier estimate. It turns out that Obamacare is pretty much a giant Medicaid expansion.

Was there ever any doubt.

Just keep loading up the system until it crashes.

They hope Single Payer will emerge from the ashes.

Never mind the pain and sorrow in between.
 
Third thread on this topic by the same poster containing a link to the CBO report that I've posted four times, including in its very own thread:

The actual CBO report

How many more?
 
The CBO's projections were based on a number of assumptions. The one that speaks to this specifically is that they assumed that states would do their part in fully implementing the law. Many Red states have not.
 
The CBO's projections were based on a number of assumptions. The one that speaks to this specifically is that they assumed that states would do their part in fully implementing the law. Many Red states have not.

It's the Mitch McConnell school of economics. Stand in the corner screaming "NOOOOOOOOO!!!!" like a toddler, and then when your citizens are suffering for lack of access to care, shrug and say "I blame Obama."
 
The CBO's projections were based on a number of assumptions. The one that speaks to this specifically is that they assumed that states would do their part in fully implementing the law. Many Red states have not.

Bad assumptions, it is clear.

So, it's the states fault the CBO can't project well.

Is it any wonder people don't trust it much anymore ?
 
The CBO's projections were based on a number of assumptions. The one that speaks to this specifically is that they assumed that states would do their part in fully implementing the law. Many Red states have not.

Bad assumptions, it is clear.

So, it's the states fault the CBO can't project well.

Is it any wonder people don't trust it much anymore ?

What people?
 
The CBO's projections were based on a number of assumptions. The one that speaks to this specifically is that they assumed that states would do their part in fully implementing the law. Many Red states have not.

Bad assumptions, it is clear.

So, it's the states fault the CBO can't project well.

Is it any wonder people don't trust it much anymore ?

It just predicts based on what assumptions that it has been given. It doesn't make the assumptions on its own. It only computes what the results would be if the assumptions are true. Since the assumptions have not been tried, the result they predicted is not demonstrably incorrect.
 
The CBO's projections were based on a number of assumptions. The one that speaks to this specifically is that they assumed that states would do their part in fully implementing the law. Many Red states have not.

Bad assumptions, it is clear.

So, it's the states fault the CBO can't project well.

Is it any wonder people don't trust it much anymore ?

It just predicts based on what assumptions that it has been given. It doesn't make the assumptions on its own. It only computes what the results would be if the assumptions are true. Since the assumptions have not been tried, the result they predicted is not demonstrably incorrect.

As I said...there were bad assumptions.

I've said for a long long time....they should not even be making predictions.

They have to go with what they are told...

Garbage In = Garbage Out
 
We haven't seen the worst of Obamacare yet. Remember the law is 2409 pages (when I downloaded it) of rambling, vague gibberish. It imparts an enormous amount of authority to the Health Secretary and creates numerous opportunities for lawyers to exploit for lawsuits. The fallout will be more doctors retiring or being driven out of medicine and, of course, premiums climbing ever higher. What did we we really expect from the Federal Government, efficiency? Cost reductions? Insurance companies, lawyers and the Federal Government win, we lose.
 
We haven't seen the worst of Obamacare yet. Remember the law is 2409 pages (when I downloaded it) of rambling, vague gibberish. It imparts an enormous amount of authority to the Health Secretary and creates numerous opportunities for lawyers to exploit for lawsuits. The fallout will be more doctors retiring or being driven out of medicine and, of course, premiums climbing ever higher. What did we we really expect from the Federal Government, efficiency? Cost reductions? Insurance companies, lawyers and the Federal Government win, we lose.

The results are already arriving.

The refrain that constantly bleats "more people have insurance" should say "fewer people have usable insurance".
 

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