Ukraine being a different country and all we don't have a choice but to accept their vote. Should we go to war to prevent the people of another country from democratically exercising their right to self determination? We cannot stop Ukranians from considering themselves ethnically Russian. We cannot, without use of tyrannical force impose western policies on the unwilling population of an entire country.
I'm torn between wanting to agree with you and wanting to disagree with you.
I fully agree that interference with the decisions of politically competent peoples is a disagreeable business, and that the less we indulge in that, the better, generally speaking.
I disagree that an ethnic minority within a republic has an uncontested right to secede from a republic just because they happen to be a majority in a given state or province or region.
Especially when such secession is catalyzed by military interference from the outside.
We are soon going to have a fait accompli on our hands, with the Crimea seceding from the Ukraine, and, quite possibly, being annexed outright by Russia.
In general there may be principles of self-determination that come into play. This is not one of those circumstances; the territorial integrity of Ukraine was negotiated and guaranteed by Russia, the UK and the US in 1995. In the broader discussions, the status of the Russian minorities, the Russian naval base in Crimea, the status of local governmental autonomy in Crimea, the Crimean Tatars status, and the de-nuclearization of the Ukraine were all intertwined. No party has a right to unilaterally unravel any part of these agreements and stand on their treaty rights on the rest.
Ukraine was unfortunately caught in a situation where both Russia and the West attempted to cajol Ukraine into an either/or decision on economic union; either the European Union or the European-Asian Customs Union. Both efforts were a mistake. The result was to make worse a problematical political situation within Ukraine.
And Russia has done this before; Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Transneistria. All are Russian puppet states recognized only by Russia and each other. There is a huge area of Eastern Europe with local Russian minorities, and if Russia has a right to intervene to "protect" them through setting up puppet states or direct annexation, we will have an inevitable war. The good news is that Russia certainly will not win it. The bad news is that it is possible no one else will win it either.
The NEXT BIG Question becomes: Will this lead to the annexation of the Ukraine, in whole or in part, now that Vladimir Putin has taken the (pathetic) measure of The West in this matter?
No. Putin does not want the whole Ukraine, he does not really want even the Crimea. What he wants is for Ukraine to remain united as a satellite of Russia.
Once this precedent has been established and tolerated internationally, at-law, I smell a division of the Ukraine into East and West Ukraine, in the not-too-distant future. As goes the Crimea, so goes the Eastern States within the Ukraine, yes?
Probably not. Separating the Donbas from the rest of Ukraine is problematical. Linguistically, the Donbas and Crimea are 80--86% Russian speaking, the area around Kiev 47%, and far West Ukraine less than 4%. But there are Russian ethnic or Russian speaking enclaves everywhere in Ukraine. On top of that, within each region except the East, the proportion of Russian speakers is higher in most urban areas. How do you partition block by block? Or do we ethnically cleanse and swap populations? The fragmented we make the Ukraine, the harder it will be to protect the rights of any minority anywhere within it.
And, if THAT happens, then the next Big Question THEN becomes, Will Russian annex WESTERN Ukraine, as well, so that they're snug-up against Poland and NATO again?
I really don't want to 'go to war' over the Crimea, but I think we should probably consider *****-slapping Russia and Uncle Vlad in some meaningful and painful way, as a warning.
There are effective Western counters available. My carpool leaves shortly, so I have to leave that for later this afternoon!
But I DO think we should probably consider drawing a line in the sand, between East and West Ukraine - derived, probably, as a matter of Ethnic Majorities, I suppose, as dubious and distasteful as that sounds to our Western ears - and move to support the True Ukrainians - the citizens of West Ukraine - more manfully and solidly than we are at present.
I haven't really thought through all the implications yet, relevant to such a stance, but, at first glance, that seems like a sensible approach... sanctions re: the Crimea, more sanctions and other censure or punishments if Eastern Ukraine falls, but a line in the sand re: Western Ukraine.
Just thinkin' out loud...[/QUOTE]