Busy Hurricane Season is predicted for 2024

[Crick]

NOAA predicted up to 33 named storms, CSU 23. There was a constant drumbeat of doom. Now? Just shows how much they don't know and speculate on emotion. Its actually very sad to see.

How does NOAA see the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season shaping up?​

By Matthew Rosencrans
Published June 27, 2024

This is a guest post by Matthew Rosencrans, who is the lead hurricane season forecaster at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center.
Spring has turned to summer, which means that allergies have mostly let go of their hold over our collective sinuses (apologies to those still suffering), sunscreen lathering is again a daily ritual, and many people grab their chairs and blankets and head to the beach. However, this is also when trouble can start brewing in the tropics, and so at this same time every year, forecasters across NOAA (1) turn their attention to the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season. Each May, NOAA issues their Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook for the number of tropical storms and hurricanes we can expect in the upcoming summer and fall.
This year, NOAA predicts a very high likelihood (85% chance) of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season (2), with 17-25 named storms (average is 14), 8-13 hurricanes (average is 7), and 4-7 major hurricanes (average is 3) (3). Why is NOAA so confident that we will have an active Atlantic hurricane season? We’ll lay it all out for you here (spoiler alert: we wouldn’t neglect ENSO on the ENSO Blog!).

How does NOAA see the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season shaping up?

Matthew Rosencrans of the NOAA Climate Prediction Center tells us why NOAA predicts a very active Atlantic hurricane season.

www.climate.gov

 

[Manonthestreet]

'The tropics are broken:' So where are all the Atlantic hurricanes?

It's been eerily calm in the Atlantic over the past week or so as we approach what's traditionally the busiest time of the season.

www.usatoday.com

 

[jc456]

How does NOAA see the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season shaping up?​

By Matthew Rosencrans
Published June 27, 2024

This is a guest post by Matthew Rosencrans, who is the lead hurricane season forecaster at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center.
Spring has turned to summer, which means that allergies have mostly let go of their hold over our collective sinuses (apologies to those still suffering), sunscreen lathering is again a daily ritual, and many people grab their chairs and blankets and head to the beach. However, this is also when trouble can start brewing in the tropics, and so at this same time every year, forecasters across NOAA (1) turn their attention to the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season. Each May, NOAA issues their Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook for the number of tropical storms and hurricanes we can expect in the upcoming summer and fall.
This year, NOAA predicts a very high likelihood (85% chance) of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season (2), with 17-25 named storms (average is 14), 8-13 hurricanes (average is 7), and 4-7 major hurricanes (average is 3) (3). Why is NOAA so confident that we will have an active Atlantic hurricane season? We’ll lay it all out for you here (spoiler alert: we wouldn’t neglect ENSO on the ENSO Blog!).

So dude, shell game posts are so boring. Do you know what an average number infers? Just curious how much you think you know, I'll start there before I write anymore.

 

[ding]

I'm going to have to say this was a slow season for hurricanes.

 

[Crick]

From ManontheStreet's link in post #382

So what's going on?​

"The Atlantic tropics are broken – for now," meteorologist Ryan Maue posted on X Sunday, adding that developing storms near Africa are encountering at least one problem: "Ocean temperatures at this latitude are way too cool to sustain a rain shower."
Hurricanes need warm ocean water to thrive like cars need fuel to run, and while the ocean is plenty warm in many areas, it's not where the storms are developing right now.
Klotzbach also said that while some large-scale meteorological patterns are favoring storm formation, others are acting to prevent storms from forming.

Pacific 9, Atlantic 5​

Five named storms have formed in the Atlantic basin this year, according to the National Hurricane Center. That includes three hurricanes (Beryl, Debby and Ernesto). Meanwhile, in the eastern and central Pacific basins, nine named storms have formed, including three hurricanes (Carlotta, Gilma and Hone).
That doesn't match with what the experts had called for: All preseason forecasts said a very active season was likely in the Atlantic, and some called for a "hyperactive" season – as many as 33 storms.

Meanwhile, NOAA's 2024 eastern Pacific hurricane outlook said a "below-normal season was most likely" (60% chance). There was a 30% chance of a near-normal season and only a 10% chance of an above-normal season, NOAA said in its preseason forecast released in May.

What's in the forecast? 'Too early to bail on the season'​

"I think it's too early to bail on the season just yet," Klotzbach said, adding that the latest model runs "are a whole lot more robust than they were one week ago at this time."
That means activity in the Atlantic might be about to ramp up.

 

[LordBrownTrout]

Super slow season. Starting to look like those 10 years of calm after katrina and rita. All we heard from noaa, nws, csu, glowarmers, was how this was going to be the worst year for hurricanes in the history of the universe................and then...........thud.

 

[DakotaKai_fan20]

Looking at the Atlantic near the peak, there is only one storm that the NHC is tracking.

Atlantic 2-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

www.nhc.noaa.gov

Also five named storms, 3 hurricanes, and one major hurricane (category 3 or higher) so far. It isn't active, but the opposite.

 

[Crick]

Looking at the Atlantic near the peak, there is only one storm that the NHC is tracking.

Atlantic 2-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

www.nhc.noaa.gov

Also five named storms, 3 hurricanes, and one major hurricane (category 3 or higher) so far. It isn't active, but the opposite.

Who is DakotaKai?

 

[DakotaKai_fan20]

Who is DakotaKai?

Dakota Kai is a WWE wrestler.

 

[Crick]

Dakota Kai is a WWE wrestler.

Ahh...

 

[ding]

When are these climate catastrophes going to start occuring? I don't want to miss them.

 

[ReinyDays]

If you're keeping score:

Atlantic Basin - 5 named storms
East Pacific - 8 named storms
Central Pacific - 1 named storm

Total 14 ... that 20 to 1 bet is looking mighty good right now ...

 

[ding]

If you're keeping score:

Atlantic Basin - 5 named storms
East Pacific - 8 named storms
Central Pacific - 1 named storm

Total 14 ... that 20 to 1 bet is looking mighty good right now ...

None of which were very significant storms that I am aware of.

 

[ReinyDays]

None of which were very significant storms that I am aware of.

The storms aren't significant ... it's only human misery we count ... Beryl knocked out power to parts of Houston ... but prompt government action saved millions from freezing to death ... God bless Big Government ...

Gilma almost made Cat 4 ... but never approached land ... no human suffering ... not significant ... F-0 damage on the Fujita Scale ...

 

[ding]

The storms aren't significant ... it's only human misery we count ... Beryl knocked out power to parts of Houston ... but prompt government action saved millions from freezing to death ... God bless Big Government ...

Gilma almost made Cat 4 ... but never approached land ... no human suffering ... not significant ... F-0 damage on the Fujita Scale ...

My point was more towards the continuing narrative that storms are getting more powerful.

 

[ReinyDays]

My point was more towards the continuing narrative that storms are getting more powerful.

Ah ... right ... not one shred of evidence either way ... what you want to look at then is the ACE values ... Accumulated Cyclonic Energy ... this is thought to be a far better measure of the impact of tropical cyclones ... it's calculated after-the-fact so it has no value in forecasting ... actual Atmospheric Scientists don't have enough data to state with any certainty any trends ... information from before the Age of Satellites is considered inaccurate ... roughly 1964 for the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific, 1971 for the Central Pacific ... 50 years is still weather ...

Here's a NOAA's page that describes ACE with the Atlantic Basin averages ... my bet is less than 73,000 kt^2, "below average season" ... we're half way and I'm looking good to CASH IN ... ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ...

 

[usmcstinger]

After a violent start, the Atlantic hurricane season has gone unusually quiet What we are really seeing is Mother Earth failing to comply with the Climate Change Heroes. The Federal Govern't got it wrong again. Climate Change is another way the Federal Government is attempting to control us. The Obama backed Federal Government is attempting to change our Constitutional Republic to European Socialism.

 

[ding]

Ah ... right ... not one shred of evidence either way ... what you want to look at then is the ACE values ... Accumulated Cyclonic Energy ... this is thought to be a far better measure of the impact of tropical cyclones ... it's calculated after-the-fact so it has no value in forecasting ... actual Atmospheric Scientists don't have enough data to state with any certainty any trends ... information from before the Age of Satellites is considered inaccurate ... roughly 1964 for the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific, 1971 for the Central Pacific ... 50 years is still weather ...

Here's a NOAA's page that describes ACE with the Atlantic Basin averages ... my bet is less than 73,000 kt^2, "below average season" ... we're half way and I'm looking good to CASH IN ... ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ...

Actually I would argue it's idiotic to argue it either way. It's weather.

 

[EMH]

one major hurricane

is an extremely dubious claim from biased liars. The "cat 5" hit the Leeward Islands and did not do anything like Cat 5 damage, more like Cat 1, and then it went down to a TS in the Gulf.

The Co2 FRAUD likely LIED about that being a Cat 5, and clearly the water down there is not very warm...

 

[EMH]

Who is DakotaKai?

does anyone really believe this assclown lives in FLA?

Had never heard of "canes" either.


Maybe the HEBREW TO ENGLISH TRANSLATION SOFTWARE should be upgraded to include WWE wrestler names....