For the 21 years compared here:
NAMED STORMS
More actual storms than predicted 9
Actual storms within predicted range 11
Less actual storms than predicted 1
HURRICANES
More actual storms than predicted 5
Actual storms within predicted range 12
Less actual storms than predicted 4
MAJOR HURRICANES (>Cat 3)
More actual storms than predicted 5
Actual storms within predicted range 12
Less actual storms than predicted 4
In all three categories, years when the numbers exceeded the prediction outnumbered years when the predictions were greater and years when the actual number fell within the prediction was the greatest of all three possibilities.
All this supports the observation that NHC predictions are accurate but slightly conservative.
How hurricane forecast accuracy has improved over the years
Forecasting the path and intensity of hurricanes has gotten better over the years, even compared to just 15 or 20 years ago.
www.13newsnow.com
And track forecasts have gotten about as good as they can get.
