The hostage crisis in Iran remains unresolved in the final weeks of the 1980 presidential election.
This was the surprise that never really happened. For months,
Ronald Reagan had warned that President Jimmy Carter would try to create an October surprise by freeing the hostages held by Iran’s revolutionary government since November 1979. But talks with Iran stalled, and the hostages were not freed until after Reagan’s inauguration. (
Allegations later emerged that Reagan’s team had secretly negotiated with Iran to delay the release, but repeated investigations
never turned up proof of the charge. Even if the allegations were true, there’s no sign Carter lost ground because of them.)
The hostage crisis initially caused a
rally-around-the-flag effect in late 1979 — Carter’s popularity surged. By late 1980, however, as the crisis dragged on with apparently no end in sight, it only added to Carter’s campaign woes. Carter clearly did worse in the election than he was doing in the polling before negotiations broke down, but there was a lot going on late in the 1980 campaign, making it hard to attribute Reagan’s performance to any single event. Carter and Reagan, for example,
held only one debate, and it was only after the debate that Reagan’s standing jumped, and even then the polls underestimated his final margin of victory. The final polling average for Reagan was +3, but he won the election by 10 points.
Some of the October surprises listed above (the halt in bombing in North Vietnam and Bush’s DWl) appeared to have a modest effect on the polls. Others, less so. All told, these surprises moved the polls — from the week before to the final week — about 1 or 2 percentage points, on average. None of the surprises on this list moved the polls by more than 2 points.
How Much Do ‘October Surprises’ Move The Polls?