Brexit busted.

[frigidweirdo]

This isn't just a "dip in the market", the whole point is that it's a dip for a reason, and it could easily signify a dip for a long time. This dip is about confidence.

If the UK leaves the EU, that dip in confidence could last years. That's a lot of money that otherwise wouldn't be lost.

We're talking hundreds of billions of pounds a year, and that will have an impact on jobs, on spending, on everything.

Trying to pass this off as "nothing" is simply not going to wash. This is almost certain to happen.

The Greek crisis is an example of where low confidence has a massive adverse effect. The EU were wrong to let Greece into the Euro, they knew this would have an adverse effect on the economy, but went ahead anyway, just as leaving the EU would have the same impact for the UK.

Timing is against you in this.

Suppose that the Brexit side won. We'd immediately cut all ties that very day ?? NO ... it'd take months or years of procedural wrangling to finally arrange the cutting of the cord.

This is time we can use to create other business links, outside. Indeed, the two may overlap, and for a while, we'd benefit from trading with both the EU, AND from outside it, simultaneously. I think that once the markets see that happening ... all jitters will fade to nothing.

No, I didn't say the UK would cut all ties. That's the PROBLEM.

So, if people know the UK is going to leave, and there's a process for this of two years. That's two years of lacking confidence. That's two years of the pound not having the confidence. We know what happens when people lose confidence, don't we?

Even using this time to create new links, or rearrange old ones, is going to be a very difficult time. Loss of jobs, loss of value in the pound, loss of money in the treasury, as the Chancellor said, and which the Brexit people have rejected, simply because they can just reject it, and not because they actually know.

There will be 'hiccups', no doubt, just as there is whenever any new arrangements are made, anywhere, in any way. But I disagree with you. Our progress in creating new trading ties will increase, not decrease, confidence in us as time goes on. We'll have residual trading with the EU (and probably some, maybe much, of that will be preserved). We will create other opportunities. We will be seen to succeed in this, and we will undoubtedly get new jobs come into the UK on the back of it. How do you know we will lose more than we'll gain ? You've no way at all of estimating that outcome.

And we'll stop paying outlandish membership fees to the EU, year-on-year, on top of it all ! Yes, I think we'll be a lot better off in the longer term.

"hiccups" that could cost the UK 500 billion a year or more, in order to save paying 11 billion a year.... and this could last for two or three years and the subsequent impact this has on employment and confidence later down the line. Plus the chance that the UK has less trade in the future. As I said, trade increased massively with countries that joined the EU. This could just diminish as it had grown.

Trading ties might increase over time. They might not be as good as they were under the EU, especially with EU countries.

You talk about the outlandish fees, but they are nothing compared with what the UK will lose.

If it lose 500 million a year for 2 years, then this is 100 years worth of EU fees.

'Could' this ... 'could' that .... really, this is all speculation on your part. Alarmist speculation at that.

When you really get down to it, the anti-Brexit side has been foisting alarmist, scaremongering stuff our way pretty much from day one. We're supposed to be scared of standing on our own two feet, as a 'standalone' political entity. So much better THAT outcome, eh, than to have autonomy. The freedom to be ourselves, and not just some satellite of the EU !!

Of course it's all speculation. That's what we're dealing with here.

However I'm basing my speculation on facts that have happened.

We know the pound has dropped against the Euro in the last 2 weeks, that amounts to the UK losing 100 billion a year in trade, even without a reduction in trade. I've shown you possible outcomes. If the pound drops to 0.7 against the Euro the UK will lose 500 billion a year. This is not speculation, this is the reality. The reality you and the Brexit people have been ignoring.

All the Brexit people have done, and you are doing too, is to shout down anyone or anything they don't agree with. Obama comes and says his piece "oh, you can't listen to him, he hates Britain because he moved the bust of Churchill from outside the Oval Office", the Chancellor says the treasury will have less money and have to increase taxes "oh, this is scaremongering", when in fact it actually looks like the most likely scenario.

How can this be the Brexit's main argument?

Scared of standing in your own two feet? I'd be scared. Why? Because almost every argument the Brexit people have, it appears to be the UK GOVERNMENT who have messed things up, and not the EU (welfare, immigration). Because they're talking about saving money, and the reality is the UK is not going to save any money. As I pointed out, if the scenario of losing 500 billion happens, which is an easily achievable scenario for the UK, then it's 100 years before that outweighs the cost of being in the EU right now.

You're speculating, you've been telling me how wonderful things will be. And I've pointed to Helmut Kohl doing the same thing, and this leading to Germany having 25 difficult years.

 

[frigidweirdo]

Not wrong, you're talking rubbish.

The pound has clearly dropped because of the polls about leaving being ahead.

This is different the natural flow of currency which will go up and down. However the leave being ahead is sending it lower that it would be.

The pound is NOT GOING UP, stop making stuff up.

I find it ridiculous that there are people like you who will be voting to exit the EU when you have no idea of the issues, you want to believe what you want to believe and you'll shamelessly make up anything to get that view.

Trying to score points off of any dips in the market is disingenuous. The stock market sees a successful Brexit as a move towards uncertainty. The market absolutely hates uncertainty and reacts against it.

'Uncertainty' comes from a lack of foresight as to what the future will bring. The current dips say nothing for what ACTUAL future we can look forward to ... only a fear from a lack of complete rock-solid certainty, in their eyes, as to what it will definitely be. A good word to describe what's happening would be 'jitters'.

If the EU is such a good guarantee of our future ... tell me, how pleased were world markets to see the unfolding Greek financial crisis .. and its effect on the EU .. just not too long ago ? Greece has a small economy, yet, how much of a financial disturbance did THEY manage to cause ?

I suggest to you that the EU is a house of cards just waiting to come tumbling down. The sooner we're shot of them, the better.

This isn't just a "dip in the market", the whole point is that it's a dip for a reason, and it could easily signify a dip for a long time. This dip is about confidence.

If the UK leaves the EU, that dip in confidence could last years. That's a lot of money that otherwise wouldn't be lost.

We're talking hundreds of billions of pounds a year, and that will have an impact on jobs, on spending, on everything.

Trying to pass this off as "nothing" is simply not going to wash. This is almost certain to happen.

The Greek crisis is an example of where low confidence has a massive adverse effect. The EU were wrong to let Greece into the Euro, they knew this would have an adverse effect on the economy, but went ahead anyway, just as leaving the EU would have the same impact for the UK.

Timing is against you in this.

Suppose that the Brexit side won. We'd immediately cut all ties that very day ?? NO ... it'd take months or years of procedural wrangling to finally arrange the cutting of the cord.

This is time we can use to create other business links, outside. Indeed, the two may overlap, and for a while, we'd benefit from trading with both the EU, AND from outside it, simultaneously. I think that once the markets see that happening ... all jitters will fade to nothing.

No, I didn't say the UK would cut all ties. That's the PROBLEM.

So, if people know the UK is going to leave, and there's a process for this of two years. That's two years of lacking confidence. That's two years of the pound not having the confidence. We know what happens when people lose confidence, don't we?

Even using this time to create new links, or rearrange old ones, is going to be a very difficult time. Loss of jobs, loss of value in the pound, loss of money in the treasury, as the Chancellor said, and which the Brexit people have rejected, simply because they can just reject it, and not because they actually know.

NO it is 1 day and it is a done deal. Read the Lisbon treaty. So LIE number 1

NO the EU is forced by their own laws to make trade deals as fast as they can So LIE number 2

Want to try again

Are you going to bother backing yourself up, or just squawk like a bird?

Just shouting off that you think I'm a liar doesn't cut it, I'm afraid.

 

[frigidweirdo]

This isn't just a "dip in the market", the whole point is that it's a dip for a reason, and it could easily signify a dip for a long time. This dip is about confidence.

If the UK leaves the EU, that dip in confidence could last years. That's a lot of money that otherwise wouldn't be lost.

We're talking hundreds of billions of pounds a year, and that will have an impact on jobs, on spending, on everything.

Trying to pass this off as "nothing" is simply not going to wash. This is almost certain to happen.

The Greek crisis is an example of where low confidence has a massive adverse effect. The EU were wrong to let Greece into the Euro, they knew this would have an adverse effect on the economy, but went ahead anyway, just as leaving the EU would have the same impact for the UK.

Timing is against you in this.

Suppose that the Brexit side won. We'd immediately cut all ties that very day ?? NO ... it'd take months or years of procedural wrangling to finally arrange the cutting of the cord.

This is time we can use to create other business links, outside. Indeed, the two may overlap, and for a while, we'd benefit from trading with both the EU, AND from outside it, simultaneously. I think that once the markets see that happening ... all jitters will fade to nothing.

No, I didn't say the UK would cut all ties. That's the PROBLEM.

So, if people know the UK is going to leave, and there's a process for this of two years. That's two years of lacking confidence. That's two years of the pound not having the confidence. We know what happens when people lose confidence, don't we?

Even using this time to create new links, or rearrange old ones, is going to be a very difficult time. Loss of jobs, loss of value in the pound, loss of money in the treasury, as the Chancellor said, and which the Brexit people have rejected, simply because they can just reject it, and not because they actually know.

There will be 'hiccups', no doubt, just as there is whenever any new arrangements are made, anywhere, in any way. But I disagree with you. Our progress in creating new trading ties will increase, not decrease, confidence in us as time goes on. We'll have residual trading with the EU (and probably some, maybe much, of that will be preserved). We will create other opportunities. We will be seen to succeed in this, and we will undoubtedly get new jobs come into the UK on the back of it. How do you know we will lose more than we'll gain ? You've no way at all of estimating that outcome.

And we'll stop paying outlandish membership fees to the EU, year-on-year, on top of it all ! Yes, I think we'll be a lot better off in the longer term.

"hiccups" that could cost the UK 500 billion a year or more, in order to save paying 11 billion a year.... and this could last for two or three years and the subsequent impact this has on employment and confidence later down the line. Plus the chance that the UK has less trade in the future. As I said, trade increased massively with countries that joined the EU. This could just diminish as it had grown.

Trading ties might increase over time. They might not be as good as they were under the EU, especially with EU countries.

You talk about the outlandish fees, but they are nothing compared with what the UK will lose.

If it lose 500 million a year for 2 years, then this is 100 years worth of EU fees.

See you cant even get the costs right as the direct cost of the EU is £18,777billion per annum, and an indirect cost closer to your fantasy figure of £500 billion

Things like we buy more from the EU than they buy from us giving us a trade deficit of £100billion
The Lisbon treaty says that the EU is forced to make trade agreements with leaving nations
The EU is banned from forcing tariffs on any nation by the WTO
EU over regulation costs 600billion Euros a year, and EU regulation has cost the UK £124 billion
Official Swiss government figures conclude that through their trade agreements with the EU, the Swiss pay the EU under 600 million Swiss Francs a year, but enjoy virtually free access to the EU market. The Swiss have estimated that full EU membership would cost Switzerland net payments of 3.4 billion Swiss francs a year.
EU membership costs UK billions of pounds and large numbers of lost jobs thanks to unnecessary and excessive red tape, substantial membership and aid contributions, inflated consumer prices and other associated costs.
The Common Fisheries Policy has cost British coastal communities 115,000 jobs

Why don't you try reading what I wrote? You have no idea what the 500 billion figure was, because you didn't read what I wrote.

To be honest, don't bother reading what I wrote, you're talking complete and utter crap and I'm fed up with you. Bye.

 

[montelatici]

You are actually trying to discuss something rationally with that fascist maniac?

 

[Drummond]

Timing is against you in this.

Suppose that the Brexit side won. We'd immediately cut all ties that very day ?? NO ... it'd take months or years of procedural wrangling to finally arrange the cutting of the cord.

This is time we can use to create other business links, outside. Indeed, the two may overlap, and for a while, we'd benefit from trading with both the EU, AND from outside it, simultaneously. I think that once the markets see that happening ... all jitters will fade to nothing.

No, I didn't say the UK would cut all ties. That's the PROBLEM.

So, if people know the UK is going to leave, and there's a process for this of two years. That's two years of lacking confidence. That's two years of the pound not having the confidence. We know what happens when people lose confidence, don't we?

Even using this time to create new links, or rearrange old ones, is going to be a very difficult time. Loss of jobs, loss of value in the pound, loss of money in the treasury, as the Chancellor said, and which the Brexit people have rejected, simply because they can just reject it, and not because they actually know.

There will be 'hiccups', no doubt, just as there is whenever any new arrangements are made, anywhere, in any way. But I disagree with you. Our progress in creating new trading ties will increase, not decrease, confidence in us as time goes on. We'll have residual trading with the EU (and probably some, maybe much, of that will be preserved). We will create other opportunities. We will be seen to succeed in this, and we will undoubtedly get new jobs come into the UK on the back of it. How do you know we will lose more than we'll gain ? You've no way at all of estimating that outcome.

And we'll stop paying outlandish membership fees to the EU, year-on-year, on top of it all ! Yes, I think we'll be a lot better off in the longer term.

"hiccups" that could cost the UK 500 billion a year or more, in order to save paying 11 billion a year.... and this could last for two or three years and the subsequent impact this has on employment and confidence later down the line. Plus the chance that the UK has less trade in the future. As I said, trade increased massively with countries that joined the EU. This could just diminish as it had grown.

Trading ties might increase over time. They might not be as good as they were under the EU, especially with EU countries.

You talk about the outlandish fees, but they are nothing compared with what the UK will lose.

If it lose 500 million a year for 2 years, then this is 100 years worth of EU fees.

'Could' this ... 'could' that .... really, this is all speculation on your part. Alarmist speculation at that.

When you really get down to it, the anti-Brexit side has been foisting alarmist, scaremongering stuff our way pretty much from day one. We're supposed to be scared of standing on our own two feet, as a 'standalone' political entity. So much better THAT outcome, eh, than to have autonomy. The freedom to be ourselves, and not just some satellite of the EU !!

Of course it's all speculation. That's what we're dealing with here.

However I'm basing my speculation on facts that have happened.

We know the pound has dropped against the Euro in the last 2 weeks, that amounts to the UK losing 100 billion a year in trade, even without a reduction in trade. I've shown you possible outcomes. If the pound drops to 0.7 against the Euro the UK will lose 500 billion a year. This is not speculation, this is the reality. The reality you and the Brexit people have been ignoring.

All the Brexit people have done, and you are doing too, is to shout down anyone or anything they don't agree with. Obama comes and says his piece "oh, you can't listen to him, he hates Britain because he moved the bust of Churchill from outside the Oval Office", the Chancellor says the treasury will have less money and have to increase taxes "oh, this is scaremongering", when in fact it actually looks like the most likely scenario.

How can this be the Brexit's main argument?

Scared of standing in your own two feet? I'd be scared. Why? Because almost every argument the Brexit people have, it appears to be the UK GOVERNMENT who have messed things up, and not the EU (welfare, immigration). Because they're talking about saving money, and the reality is the UK is not going to save any money. As I pointed out, if the scenario of losing 500 billion happens, which is an easily achievable scenario for the UK, then it's 100 years before that outweighs the cost of being in the EU right now.

You're speculating, you've been telling me how wonderful things will be. And I've pointed to Helmut Kohl doing the same thing, and this leading to Germany having 25 difficult years.

Do I understand from your argument that a subjective judgment made on the 'quality' of our Government means that we should surrender autonomy to a foreign power, permanently ?

I say again: uncertainty will always give the financial markets some jitters. That's actually all it is, right now, and says nothing for the correctness or otherwise of an outcome following a successful Brexit vote. You are trading on those 'jitters' and coming to a false conclusion about them.

I for one have made no attempt to 'shout you down' ... and, how could anyone do any such thing to you, here ? OK ... your lack of transparency regarding your agenda - and its source - is a disappointment, if also predictable. But, so what ? You can, and do, state your views unencumbered by such considerations.

On Obama ... he tried to subject us to an empty threat. By the time America's choice of when, how, to what extent, they chose to forge trading ties with us, this would come AFTER Obama had left Office, meaning he'd have no ability to enforce his threat. But such was the imperative that drove HIM, he made his threat regardless.

And you think we should be scared of standing on our own two feet, eh ? Tut tut ! We should have no confidence in ourselves, as a 'standalone' power ? We, an ex-Empire power, one that at one time heavily influenced the fate of much of this world ! Well ... the anti-Brexit side has relied on threats and scaremongering to win the day, even to threaten a possibility of WWIII, and to suggest the demise of 'western political civilisation'. They have precious little respect for us ... including our intelligence, evidently !! They have zero regard for our abilities as our own nation ! People have every right to react against such disreputable shabbiness.

I strongly suspect that it'll be - very clearly so, once the proper post-voting reviews are completed, in the media and in political circles - the 'Remain' side who we will see led us all to a Brexit victory !!

 

[Phoenall]

Timing is against you in this.

Suppose that the Brexit side won. We'd immediately cut all ties that very day ?? NO ... it'd take months or years of procedural wrangling to finally arrange the cutting of the cord.

This is time we can use to create other business links, outside. Indeed, the two may overlap, and for a while, we'd benefit from trading with both the EU, AND from outside it, simultaneously. I think that once the markets see that happening ... all jitters will fade to nothing.

No, I didn't say the UK would cut all ties. That's the PROBLEM.

So, if people know the UK is going to leave, and there's a process for this of two years. That's two years of lacking confidence. That's two years of the pound not having the confidence. We know what happens when people lose confidence, don't we?

Even using this time to create new links, or rearrange old ones, is going to be a very difficult time. Loss of jobs, loss of value in the pound, loss of money in the treasury, as the Chancellor said, and which the Brexit people have rejected, simply because they can just reject it, and not because they actually know.

There will be 'hiccups', no doubt, just as there is whenever any new arrangements are made, anywhere, in any way. But I disagree with you. Our progress in creating new trading ties will increase, not decrease, confidence in us as time goes on. We'll have residual trading with the EU (and probably some, maybe much, of that will be preserved). We will create other opportunities. We will be seen to succeed in this, and we will undoubtedly get new jobs come into the UK on the back of it. How do you know we will lose more than we'll gain ? You've no way at all of estimating that outcome.

And we'll stop paying outlandish membership fees to the EU, year-on-year, on top of it all ! Yes, I think we'll be a lot better off in the longer term.

"hiccups" that could cost the UK 500 billion a year or more, in order to save paying 11 billion a year.... and this could last for two or three years and the subsequent impact this has on employment and confidence later down the line. Plus the chance that the UK has less trade in the future. As I said, trade increased massively with countries that joined the EU. This could just diminish as it had grown.

Trading ties might increase over time. They might not be as good as they were under the EU, especially with EU countries.

You talk about the outlandish fees, but they are nothing compared with what the UK will lose.

If it lose 500 million a year for 2 years, then this is 100 years worth of EU fees.

'Could' this ... 'could' that .... really, this is all speculation on your part. Alarmist speculation at that.

When you really get down to it, the anti-Brexit side has been foisting alarmist, scaremongering stuff our way pretty much from day one. We're supposed to be scared of standing on our own two feet, as a 'standalone' political entity. So much better THAT outcome, eh, than to have autonomy. The freedom to be ourselves, and not just some satellite of the EU !!

Of course it's all speculation. That's what we're dealing with here.

However I'm basing my speculation on facts that have happened.

We know the pound has dropped against the Euro in the last 2 weeks, that amounts to the UK losing 100 billion a year in trade, even without a reduction in trade. I've shown you possible outcomes. If the pound drops to 0.7 against the Euro the UK will lose 500 billion a year. This is not speculation, this is the reality. The reality you and the Brexit people have been ignoring.

All the Brexit people have done, and you are doing too, is to shout down anyone or anything they don't agree with. Obama comes and says his piece "oh, you can't listen to him, he hates Britain because he moved the bust of Churchill from outside the Oval Office", the Chancellor says the treasury will have less money and have to increase taxes "oh, this is scaremongering", when in fact it actually looks like the most likely scenario.

How can this be the Brexit's main argument?

Scared of standing in your own two feet? I'd be scared. Why? Because almost every argument the Brexit people have, it appears to be the UK GOVERNMENT who have messed things up, and not the EU (welfare, immigration). Because they're talking about saving money, and the reality is the UK is not going to save any money. As I pointed out, if the scenario of losing 500 billion happens, which is an easily achievable scenario for the UK, then it's 100 years before that outweighs the cost of being in the EU right now.

You're speculating, you've been telling me how wonderful things will be. And I've pointed to Helmut Kohl doing the same thing, and this leading to Germany having 25 difficult years.

And I ask again what goods are left unsold in the factories that had been ordered and paid for. Seems you don't understand how trade works. I order 1000 vacuum cleaners to be delivered in batches of 150 every two months and pay up front an agreed price. The seller cant increase that price because the £ has dropped. The next time I might only buy 750 because my stocks are still high and the cost is too high. No lost trade just lost revenue for the seller. No impact on the economy and so no problem for the country. The problem lies with the EU that sells more to the UK than they buy as they have to find new markets for their goods or watch then rot. That is the lost trade that remain are twisting around to make it sound bad for the UK

 

[Phoenall]

Trying to score points off of any dips in the market is disingenuous. The stock market sees a successful Brexit as a move towards uncertainty. The market absolutely hates uncertainty and reacts against it.

'Uncertainty' comes from a lack of foresight as to what the future will bring. The current dips say nothing for what ACTUAL future we can look forward to ... only a fear from a lack of complete rock-solid certainty, in their eyes, as to what it will definitely be. A good word to describe what's happening would be 'jitters'.

If the EU is such a good guarantee of our future ... tell me, how pleased were world markets to see the unfolding Greek financial crisis .. and its effect on the EU .. just not too long ago ? Greece has a small economy, yet, how much of a financial disturbance did THEY manage to cause ?

I suggest to you that the EU is a house of cards just waiting to come tumbling down. The sooner we're shot of them, the better.

This isn't just a "dip in the market", the whole point is that it's a dip for a reason, and it could easily signify a dip for a long time. This dip is about confidence.

If the UK leaves the EU, that dip in confidence could last years. That's a lot of money that otherwise wouldn't be lost.

We're talking hundreds of billions of pounds a year, and that will have an impact on jobs, on spending, on everything.

Trying to pass this off as "nothing" is simply not going to wash. This is almost certain to happen.

The Greek crisis is an example of where low confidence has a massive adverse effect. The EU were wrong to let Greece into the Euro, they knew this would have an adverse effect on the economy, but went ahead anyway, just as leaving the EU would have the same impact for the UK.

Timing is against you in this.

Suppose that the Brexit side won. We'd immediately cut all ties that very day ?? NO ... it'd take months or years of procedural wrangling to finally arrange the cutting of the cord.

This is time we can use to create other business links, outside. Indeed, the two may overlap, and for a while, we'd benefit from trading with both the EU, AND from outside it, simultaneously. I think that once the markets see that happening ... all jitters will fade to nothing.

No, I didn't say the UK would cut all ties. That's the PROBLEM.

So, if people know the UK is going to leave, and there's a process for this of two years. That's two years of lacking confidence. That's two years of the pound not having the confidence. We know what happens when people lose confidence, don't we?

Even using this time to create new links, or rearrange old ones, is going to be a very difficult time. Loss of jobs, loss of value in the pound, loss of money in the treasury, as the Chancellor said, and which the Brexit people have rejected, simply because they can just reject it, and not because they actually know.

NO it is 1 day and it is a done deal. Read the Lisbon treaty. So LIE number 1

NO the EU is forced by their own laws to make trade deals as fast as they can So LIE number 2

Want to try again

Are you going to bother backing yourself up, or just squawk like a bird?

Just shouting off that you think I'm a liar doesn't cut it, I'm afraid.

 

[Phoenall]

I have read the Lisbon treaty were it is stated and I said that you have passed on two lies proven and highlighted. I can do the same with the rest of your posts if you want, highlight the posts that are lies because you are told to believe everything.

 

[Phoenall]

Timing is against you in this.

Suppose that the Brexit side won. We'd immediately cut all ties that very day ?? NO ... it'd take months or years of procedural wrangling to finally arrange the cutting of the cord.

This is time we can use to create other business links, outside. Indeed, the two may overlap, and for a while, we'd benefit from trading with both the EU, AND from outside it, simultaneously. I think that once the markets see that happening ... all jitters will fade to nothing.

No, I didn't say the UK would cut all ties. That's the PROBLEM.

So, if people know the UK is going to leave, and there's a process for this of two years. That's two years of lacking confidence. That's two years of the pound not having the confidence. We know what happens when people lose confidence, don't we?

Even using this time to create new links, or rearrange old ones, is going to be a very difficult time. Loss of jobs, loss of value in the pound, loss of money in the treasury, as the Chancellor said, and which the Brexit people have rejected, simply because they can just reject it, and not because they actually know.

There will be 'hiccups', no doubt, just as there is whenever any new arrangements are made, anywhere, in any way. But I disagree with you. Our progress in creating new trading ties will increase, not decrease, confidence in us as time goes on. We'll have residual trading with the EU (and probably some, maybe much, of that will be preserved). We will create other opportunities. We will be seen to succeed in this, and we will undoubtedly get new jobs come into the UK on the back of it. How do you know we will lose more than we'll gain ? You've no way at all of estimating that outcome.

And we'll stop paying outlandish membership fees to the EU, year-on-year, on top of it all ! Yes, I think we'll be a lot better off in the longer term.

"hiccups" that could cost the UK 500 billion a year or more, in order to save paying 11 billion a year.... and this could last for two or three years and the subsequent impact this has on employment and confidence later down the line. Plus the chance that the UK has less trade in the future. As I said, trade increased massively with countries that joined the EU. This could just diminish as it had grown.

Trading ties might increase over time. They might not be as good as they were under the EU, especially with EU countries.

You talk about the outlandish fees, but they are nothing compared with what the UK will lose.

If it lose 500 million a year for 2 years, then this is 100 years worth of EU fees.

See you cant even get the costs right as the direct cost of the EU is £18,777billion per annum, and an indirect cost closer to your fantasy figure of £500 billion

Things like we buy more from the EU than they buy from us giving us a trade deficit of £100billion
The Lisbon treaty says that the EU is forced to make trade agreements with leaving nations
The EU is banned from forcing tariffs on any nation by the WTO
EU over regulation costs 600billion Euros a year, and EU regulation has cost the UK £124 billion
Official Swiss government figures conclude that through their trade agreements with the EU, the Swiss pay the EU under 600 million Swiss Francs a year, but enjoy virtually free access to the EU market. The Swiss have estimated that full EU membership would cost Switzerland net payments of 3.4 billion Swiss francs a year.
EU membership costs UK billions of pounds and large numbers of lost jobs thanks to unnecessary and excessive red tape, substantial membership and aid contributions, inflated consumer prices and other associated costs.
The Common Fisheries Policy has cost British coastal communities 115,000 jobs

Why don't you try reading what I wrote? You have no idea what the 500 billion figure was, because you didn't read what I wrote.

To be honest, don't bother reading what I wrote, you're talking complete and utter crap and I'm fed up with you. Bye.

Because all it says is 500 billion and nothing else, it does not say these products or commodities were refused because of the brexit referendum.

The devil is in the detail and you have no detail to fall back on, no supporting arguments at all. So now you hang your head and mutter but it is a 500billion loss cos I have been told it is.

So were are the actual facts to support your fantasy figures, were are the losses in black and white

 

[Toro]

Oddschecker still has remain at ~1/2

Brexit Referendum Betting Odds | Oddschecker

 

[frigidweirdo]

No, I didn't say the UK would cut all ties. That's the PROBLEM.

So, if people know the UK is going to leave, and there's a process for this of two years. That's two years of lacking confidence. That's two years of the pound not having the confidence. We know what happens when people lose confidence, don't we?

Even using this time to create new links, or rearrange old ones, is going to be a very difficult time. Loss of jobs, loss of value in the pound, loss of money in the treasury, as the Chancellor said, and which the Brexit people have rejected, simply because they can just reject it, and not because they actually know.

There will be 'hiccups', no doubt, just as there is whenever any new arrangements are made, anywhere, in any way. But I disagree with you. Our progress in creating new trading ties will increase, not decrease, confidence in us as time goes on. We'll have residual trading with the EU (and probably some, maybe much, of that will be preserved). We will create other opportunities. We will be seen to succeed in this, and we will undoubtedly get new jobs come into the UK on the back of it. How do you know we will lose more than we'll gain ? You've no way at all of estimating that outcome.

And we'll stop paying outlandish membership fees to the EU, year-on-year, on top of it all ! Yes, I think we'll be a lot better off in the longer term.

"hiccups" that could cost the UK 500 billion a year or more, in order to save paying 11 billion a year.... and this could last for two or three years and the subsequent impact this has on employment and confidence later down the line. Plus the chance that the UK has less trade in the future. As I said, trade increased massively with countries that joined the EU. This could just diminish as it had grown.

Trading ties might increase over time. They might not be as good as they were under the EU, especially with EU countries.

You talk about the outlandish fees, but they are nothing compared with what the UK will lose.

If it lose 500 million a year for 2 years, then this is 100 years worth of EU fees.

'Could' this ... 'could' that .... really, this is all speculation on your part. Alarmist speculation at that.

When you really get down to it, the anti-Brexit side has been foisting alarmist, scaremongering stuff our way pretty much from day one. We're supposed to be scared of standing on our own two feet, as a 'standalone' political entity. So much better THAT outcome, eh, than to have autonomy. The freedom to be ourselves, and not just some satellite of the EU !!

Of course it's all speculation. That's what we're dealing with here.

However I'm basing my speculation on facts that have happened.

We know the pound has dropped against the Euro in the last 2 weeks, that amounts to the UK losing 100 billion a year in trade, even without a reduction in trade. I've shown you possible outcomes. If the pound drops to 0.7 against the Euro the UK will lose 500 billion a year. This is not speculation, this is the reality. The reality you and the Brexit people have been ignoring.

All the Brexit people have done, and you are doing too, is to shout down anyone or anything they don't agree with. Obama comes and says his piece "oh, you can't listen to him, he hates Britain because he moved the bust of Churchill from outside the Oval Office", the Chancellor says the treasury will have less money and have to increase taxes "oh, this is scaremongering", when in fact it actually looks like the most likely scenario.

How can this be the Brexit's main argument?

Scared of standing in your own two feet? I'd be scared. Why? Because almost every argument the Brexit people have, it appears to be the UK GOVERNMENT who have messed things up, and not the EU (welfare, immigration). Because they're talking about saving money, and the reality is the UK is not going to save any money. As I pointed out, if the scenario of losing 500 billion happens, which is an easily achievable scenario for the UK, then it's 100 years before that outweighs the cost of being in the EU right now.

You're speculating, you've been telling me how wonderful things will be. And I've pointed to Helmut Kohl doing the same thing, and this leading to Germany having 25 difficult years.

Do I understand from your argument that a subjective judgment made on the 'quality' of our Government means that we should surrender autonomy to a foreign power, permanently ?

I say again: uncertainty will always give the financial markets some jitters. That's actually all it is, right now, and says nothing for the correctness or otherwise of an outcome following a successful Brexit vote. You are trading on those 'jitters' and coming to a false conclusion about them.

I for one have made no attempt to 'shout you down' ... and, how could anyone do any such thing to you, here ? OK ... your lack of transparency regarding your agenda - and its source - is a disappointment, if also predictable. But, so what ? You can, and do, state your views unencumbered by such considerations.

On Obama ... he tried to subject us to an empty threat. By the time America's choice of when, how, to what extent, they chose to forge trading ties with us, this would come AFTER Obama had left Office, meaning he'd have no ability to enforce his threat. But such was the imperative that drove HIM, he made his threat regardless.

And you think we should be scared of standing on our own two feet, eh ? Tut tut ! We should have no confidence in ourselves, as a 'standalone' power ? We, an ex-Empire power, one that at one time heavily influenced the fate of much of this world ! Well ... the anti-Brexit side has relied on threats and scaremongering to win the day, even to threaten a possibility of WWIII, and to suggest the demise of 'western political civilisation'. They have precious little respect for us ... including our intelligence, evidently !! They have zero regard for our abilities as our own nation ! People have every right to react against such disreputable shabbiness.

I strongly suspect that it'll be - very clearly so, once the proper post-voting reviews are completed, in the media and in political circles - the 'Remain' side who we will see led us all to a Brexit victory !!

No, you don't understand correctly, which I understand, this is not a simple argument here.

The point I was making was that you said you (as an individual) would be better off with the UK leaving the EU.

I've pointed out that, in reality the difference between foreigners in Brussels making laws and British people in Westminster making laws isn't actually that different.

A person in Brussels might be thinking what is best for the people, while a person in Westminster might be thinking what's best for themselves. Or the reverse is also true. I've met politicians who are self centered and I've met ones who are extremely empathetic and put their life's work into helping people. Where they're from doesn't matter.

I'm on the left of the political spectrum, but if I were in the Labour Party I'd be on the right of that party. I disagree with many people on the left, I saw what Labour has done to the UK in some ways and seen good, and in other ways seen bad. The same in the US, the left has done some good, and some bad. The same with Germany, Austria, probably not Spain as both sides in Spain are so incompetent it's ridiculous.

The point being that political autonomy doesn't actually mean as much as people are making it out to mean, you're still being run by politicians, politicians who are sometimes good and sometimes bad, even if they claim to represent you in some way (through party affiliations, through nationality or whatever).



Yes, uncertainty will give jitters. So far these jitters have wiped 100 billion from the UK's trade. More jitters and it's going down. However a currency is worth what? Sometimes currencies are worth what people think they're worth, other times what the society can produce. If the UK produces less, and things cost more, then the pound will remain lower for much longer, if not indefinitely.

However, what I've spoken about the massive jitters that will be an almost certainty if the UK leaves the EU, and for a long period of time until the UK gets itself sorted out.
These jitters will cost a lot of people (who may have voted leave) their jobs, it will reduce their spending power, it'll make them worse off than being in the EU. The laws that might be different will hardly affect their lives, immigration won't be reduced any more than it would be otherwise, unless of course a whole load of EU citizens get kicked out of the UK and a whole load of people (who don't get polled and will be voting stay) who live in the EU will have to come back. The chances of this happening are not that great, so a lot of them will stay. The non-EU citizens won't have much to worry about, nothing changes for them anyway.


You have made attempts to shout me down, not like that other guy, I forget his name, but he's on here every day. What you have done is, as I've told you before, gone off on one about where I'm from, even after I made it clear I wasn't interested in talking about that, and I told you why. Also you've taken up the mantle of the Brexit people in saying stuff like "that's wrong".
However, you aren't like a lot of people on this board, you will discuss things, and I have had good debate with you.

Your argument about being scared to stand on your own two feet is rather a weak argument. The UK mostly does stand on its own two feet anyway. The EU is there, and it does do stuff, and make laws, however you look at the USA and the states there have far less powers than the governments of EU countries.
However the UK does need friends. It's been allied with the US for a long, long time. The EU isn't going to go away and the UK will probably still be close allies with the EU.

Look, for example, at France and Belgium. Both had bombs and terrorist attacks. Neither invaded Iraq. They were tied to the UK, US and Spain played a part too, but they had nothing to do with it, but suffered anyway. The UK isn't in a different position to that, it's part of the West, an integral part. Whatever the EU does, the UK is going to be brought into it, without a say.

Someone did a look at the polls, and said that the stay camp is ahead on an average of those polls. Plus this doesn't include those who don't live in the UK, but can vote, many of whom will be voting to stay.

 

[Phoenall]

There will be 'hiccups', no doubt, just as there is whenever any new arrangements are made, anywhere, in any way. But I disagree with you. Our progress in creating new trading ties will increase, not decrease, confidence in us as time goes on. We'll have residual trading with the EU (and probably some, maybe much, of that will be preserved). We will create other opportunities. We will be seen to succeed in this, and we will undoubtedly get new jobs come into the UK on the back of it. How do you know we will lose more than we'll gain ? You've no way at all of estimating that outcome.

And we'll stop paying outlandish membership fees to the EU, year-on-year, on top of it all ! Yes, I think we'll be a lot better off in the longer term.

"hiccups" that could cost the UK 500 billion a year or more, in order to save paying 11 billion a year.... and this could last for two or three years and the subsequent impact this has on employment and confidence later down the line. Plus the chance that the UK has less trade in the future. As I said, trade increased massively with countries that joined the EU. This could just diminish as it had grown.

Trading ties might increase over time. They might not be as good as they were under the EU, especially with EU countries.

You talk about the outlandish fees, but they are nothing compared with what the UK will lose.

If it lose 500 million a year for 2 years, then this is 100 years worth of EU fees.

'Could' this ... 'could' that .... really, this is all speculation on your part. Alarmist speculation at that.

When you really get down to it, the anti-Brexit side has been foisting alarmist, scaremongering stuff our way pretty much from day one. We're supposed to be scared of standing on our own two feet, as a 'standalone' political entity. So much better THAT outcome, eh, than to have autonomy. The freedom to be ourselves, and not just some satellite of the EU !!

Of course it's all speculation. That's what we're dealing with here.

However I'm basing my speculation on facts that have happened.

We know the pound has dropped against the Euro in the last 2 weeks, that amounts to the UK losing 100 billion a year in trade, even without a reduction in trade. I've shown you possible outcomes. If the pound drops to 0.7 against the Euro the UK will lose 500 billion a year. This is not speculation, this is the reality. The reality you and the Brexit people have been ignoring.

All the Brexit people have done, and you are doing too, is to shout down anyone or anything they don't agree with. Obama comes and says his piece "oh, you can't listen to him, he hates Britain because he moved the bust of Churchill from outside the Oval Office", the Chancellor says the treasury will have less money and have to increase taxes "oh, this is scaremongering", when in fact it actually looks like the most likely scenario.

How can this be the Brexit's main argument?

Scared of standing in your own two feet? I'd be scared. Why? Because almost every argument the Brexit people have, it appears to be the UK GOVERNMENT who have messed things up, and not the EU (welfare, immigration). Because they're talking about saving money, and the reality is the UK is not going to save any money. As I pointed out, if the scenario of losing 500 billion happens, which is an easily achievable scenario for the UK, then it's 100 years before that outweighs the cost of being in the EU right now.

You're speculating, you've been telling me how wonderful things will be. And I've pointed to Helmut Kohl doing the same thing, and this leading to Germany having 25 difficult years.

Do I understand from your argument that a subjective judgment made on the 'quality' of our Government means that we should surrender autonomy to a foreign power, permanently ?

I say again: uncertainty will always give the financial markets some jitters. That's actually all it is, right now, and says nothing for the correctness or otherwise of an outcome following a successful Brexit vote. You are trading on those 'jitters' and coming to a false conclusion about them.

I for one have made no attempt to 'shout you down' ... and, how could anyone do any such thing to you, here ? OK ... your lack of transparency regarding your agenda - and its source - is a disappointment, if also predictable. But, so what ? You can, and do, state your views unencumbered by such considerations.

On Obama ... he tried to subject us to an empty threat. By the time America's choice of when, how, to what extent, they chose to forge trading ties with us, this would come AFTER Obama had left Office, meaning he'd have no ability to enforce his threat. But such was the imperative that drove HIM, he made his threat regardless.

And you think we should be scared of standing on our own two feet, eh ? Tut tut ! We should have no confidence in ourselves, as a 'standalone' power ? We, an ex-Empire power, one that at one time heavily influenced the fate of much of this world ! Well ... the anti-Brexit side has relied on threats and scaremongering to win the day, even to threaten a possibility of WWIII, and to suggest the demise of 'western political civilisation'. They have precious little respect for us ... including our intelligence, evidently !! They have zero regard for our abilities as our own nation ! People have every right to react against such disreputable shabbiness.

I strongly suspect that it'll be - very clearly so, once the proper post-voting reviews are completed, in the media and in political circles - the 'Remain' side who we will see led us all to a Brexit victory !!

No, you don't understand correctly, which I understand, this is not a simple argument here.

The point I was making was that you said you (as an individual) would be better off with the UK leaving the EU.

I've pointed out that, in reality the difference between foreigners in Brussels making laws and British people in Westminster making laws isn't actually that different.

A person in Brussels might be thinking what is best for the people, while a person in Westminster might be thinking what's best for themselves. Or the reverse is also true. I've met politicians who are self centered and I've met ones who are extremely empathetic and put their life's work into helping people. Where they're from doesn't matter.

I'm on the left of the political spectrum, but if I were in the Labour Party I'd be on the right of that party. I disagree with many people on the left, I saw what Labour has done to the UK in some ways and seen good, and in other ways seen bad. The same in the US, the left has done some good, and some bad. The same with Germany, Austria, probably not Spain as both sides in Spain are so incompetent it's ridiculous.

The point being that political autonomy doesn't actually mean as much as people are making it out to mean, you're still being run by politicians, politicians who are sometimes good and sometimes bad, even if they claim to represent you in some way (through party affiliations, through nationality or whatever).



Yes, uncertainty will give jitters. So far these jitters have wiped 100 billion from the UK's trade. More jitters and it's going down. However a currency is worth what? Sometimes currencies are worth what people think they're worth, other times what the society can produce. If the UK produces less, and things cost more, then the pound will remain lower for much longer, if not indefinitely.

However, what I've spoken about the massive jitters that will be an almost certainty if the UK leaves the EU, and for a long period of time until the UK gets itself sorted out.
These jitters will cost a lot of people (who may have voted leave) their jobs, it will reduce their spending power, it'll make them worse off than being in the EU. The laws that might be different will hardly affect their lives, immigration won't be reduced any more than it would be otherwise, unless of course a whole load of EU citizens get kicked out of the UK and a whole load of people (who don't get polled and will be voting stay) who live in the EU will have to come back. The chances of this happening are not that great, so a lot of them will stay. The non-EU citizens won't have much to worry about, nothing changes for them anyway.


You have made attempts to shout me down, not like that other guy, I forget his name, but he's on here every day. What you have done is, as I've told you before, gone off on one about where I'm from, even after I made it clear I wasn't interested in talking about that, and I told you why. Also you've taken up the mantle of the Brexit people in saying stuff like "that's wrong".
However, you aren't like a lot of people on this board, you will discuss things, and I have had good debate with you.

Your argument about being scared to stand on your own two feet is rather a weak argument. The UK mostly does stand on its own two feet anyway. The EU is there, and it does do stuff, and make laws, however you look at the USA and the states there have far less powers than the governments of EU countries.
However the UK does need friends. It's been allied with the US for a long, long time. The EU isn't going to go away and the UK will probably still be close allies with the EU.

Look, for example, at France and Belgium. Both had bombs and terrorist attacks. Neither invaded Iraq. They were tied to the UK, US and Spain played a part too, but they had nothing to do with it, but suffered anyway. The UK isn't in a different position to that, it's part of the West, an integral part. Whatever the EU does, the UK is going to be brought into it, without a say.

Someone did a look at the polls, and said that the stay camp is ahead on an average of those polls. Plus this doesn't include those who don't live in the UK, but can vote, many of whom will be voting to stay.

Down to £100 million now and still no actual details as to what trade was lost. I think you are getting confused with the stock market losses and trade deficits. The trade deficits have always been there and are nothing new with a EU selling 5 times the amount to the UK as the UK sells to the EU. That is a massive deficit worth more to the EU than to the UK, so who will lose the most again in trade ? Yes the EU is already having jitters and spreading lies about who will lose and how much because they cant afford the losses they will be making

 

[anotherlife]

I have read the Lisbon treaty were it is stated and I said that you have passed on two lies proven and highlighted. I can do the same with the rest of your posts if you want, highlight the posts that are lies because you are told to believe everything.

The Lisbon treaty is important. What it really says is that you should be able to mitigate your personal financial and legislative losses with more higher level governmental bodies, that can compete successfully with your already captured national government.

 

[Drummond]

There will be 'hiccups', no doubt, just as there is whenever any new arrangements are made, anywhere, in any way. But I disagree with you. Our progress in creating new trading ties will increase, not decrease, confidence in us as time goes on. We'll have residual trading with the EU (and probably some, maybe much, of that will be preserved). We will create other opportunities. We will be seen to succeed in this, and we will undoubtedly get new jobs come into the UK on the back of it. How do you know we will lose more than we'll gain ? You've no way at all of estimating that outcome.

And we'll stop paying outlandish membership fees to the EU, year-on-year, on top of it all ! Yes, I think we'll be a lot better off in the longer term.

"hiccups" that could cost the UK 500 billion a year or more, in order to save paying 11 billion a year.... and this could last for two or three years and the subsequent impact this has on employment and confidence later down the line. Plus the chance that the UK has less trade in the future. As I said, trade increased massively with countries that joined the EU. This could just diminish as it had grown.

Trading ties might increase over time. They might not be as good as they were under the EU, especially with EU countries.

You talk about the outlandish fees, but they are nothing compared with what the UK will lose.

If it lose 500 million a year for 2 years, then this is 100 years worth of EU fees.

'Could' this ... 'could' that .... really, this is all speculation on your part. Alarmist speculation at that.

When you really get down to it, the anti-Brexit side has been foisting alarmist, scaremongering stuff our way pretty much from day one. We're supposed to be scared of standing on our own two feet, as a 'standalone' political entity. So much better THAT outcome, eh, than to have autonomy. The freedom to be ourselves, and not just some satellite of the EU !!

Of course it's all speculation. That's what we're dealing with here.

However I'm basing my speculation on facts that have happened.

We know the pound has dropped against the Euro in the last 2 weeks, that amounts to the UK losing 100 billion a year in trade, even without a reduction in trade. I've shown you possible outcomes. If the pound drops to 0.7 against the Euro the UK will lose 500 billion a year. This is not speculation, this is the reality. The reality you and the Brexit people have been ignoring.

All the Brexit people have done, and you are doing too, is to shout down anyone or anything they don't agree with. Obama comes and says his piece "oh, you can't listen to him, he hates Britain because he moved the bust of Churchill from outside the Oval Office", the Chancellor says the treasury will have less money and have to increase taxes "oh, this is scaremongering", when in fact it actually looks like the most likely scenario.

How can this be the Brexit's main argument?

Scared of standing in your own two feet? I'd be scared. Why? Because almost every argument the Brexit people have, it appears to be the UK GOVERNMENT who have messed things up, and not the EU (welfare, immigration). Because they're talking about saving money, and the reality is the UK is not going to save any money. As I pointed out, if the scenario of losing 500 billion happens, which is an easily achievable scenario for the UK, then it's 100 years before that outweighs the cost of being in the EU right now.

You're speculating, you've been telling me how wonderful things will be. And I've pointed to Helmut Kohl doing the same thing, and this leading to Germany having 25 difficult years.

Do I understand from your argument that a subjective judgment made on the 'quality' of our Government means that we should surrender autonomy to a foreign power, permanently ?

I say again: uncertainty will always give the financial markets some jitters. That's actually all it is, right now, and says nothing for the correctness or otherwise of an outcome following a successful Brexit vote. You are trading on those 'jitters' and coming to a false conclusion about them.

I for one have made no attempt to 'shout you down' ... and, how could anyone do any such thing to you, here ? OK ... your lack of transparency regarding your agenda - and its source - is a disappointment, if also predictable. But, so what ? You can, and do, state your views unencumbered by such considerations.

On Obama ... he tried to subject us to an empty threat. By the time America's choice of when, how, to what extent, they chose to forge trading ties with us, this would come AFTER Obama had left Office, meaning he'd have no ability to enforce his threat. But such was the imperative that drove HIM, he made his threat regardless.

And you think we should be scared of standing on our own two feet, eh ? Tut tut ! We should have no confidence in ourselves, as a 'standalone' power ? We, an ex-Empire power, one that at one time heavily influenced the fate of much of this world ! Well ... the anti-Brexit side has relied on threats and scaremongering to win the day, even to threaten a possibility of WWIII, and to suggest the demise of 'western political civilisation'. They have precious little respect for us ... including our intelligence, evidently !! They have zero regard for our abilities as our own nation ! People have every right to react against such disreputable shabbiness.

I strongly suspect that it'll be - very clearly so, once the proper post-voting reviews are completed, in the media and in political circles - the 'Remain' side who we will see led us all to a Brexit victory !!

No, you don't understand correctly, which I understand, this is not a simple argument here.

The point I was making was that you said you (as an individual) would be better off with the UK leaving the EU.

I've pointed out that, in reality the difference between foreigners in Brussels making laws and British people in Westminster making laws isn't actually that different.

A person in Brussels might be thinking what is best for the people, while a person in Westminster might be thinking what's best for themselves. Or the reverse is also true. I've met politicians who are self centered and I've met ones who are extremely empathetic and put their life's work into helping people. Where they're from doesn't matter.

I'm on the left of the political spectrum, but if I were in the Labour Party I'd be on the right of that party. I disagree with many people on the left, I saw what Labour has done to the UK in some ways and seen good, and in other ways seen bad. The same in the US, the left has done some good, and some bad. The same with Germany, Austria, probably not Spain as both sides in Spain are so incompetent it's ridiculous.

The point being that political autonomy doesn't actually mean as much as people are making it out to mean, you're still being run by politicians, politicians who are sometimes good and sometimes bad, even if they claim to represent you in some way (through party affiliations, through nationality or whatever).



Yes, uncertainty will give jitters. So far these jitters have wiped 100 billion from the UK's trade. More jitters and it's going down. However a currency is worth what? Sometimes currencies are worth what people think they're worth, other times what the society can produce. If the UK produces less, and things cost more, then the pound will remain lower for much longer, if not indefinitely.

However, what I've spoken about the massive jitters that will be an almost certainty if the UK leaves the EU, and for a long period of time until the UK gets itself sorted out.
These jitters will cost a lot of people (who may have voted leave) their jobs, it will reduce their spending power, it'll make them worse off than being in the EU. The laws that might be different will hardly affect their lives, immigration won't be reduced any more than it would be otherwise, unless of course a whole load of EU citizens get kicked out of the UK and a whole load of people (who don't get polled and will be voting stay) who live in the EU will have to come back. The chances of this happening are not that great, so a lot of them will stay. The non-EU citizens won't have much to worry about, nothing changes for them anyway.


You have made attempts to shout me down, not like that other guy, I forget his name, but he's on here every day. What you have done is, as I've told you before, gone off on one about where I'm from, even after I made it clear I wasn't interested in talking about that, and I told you why. Also you've taken up the mantle of the Brexit people in saying stuff like "that's wrong".
However, you aren't like a lot of people on this board, you will discuss things, and I have had good debate with you.

Your argument about being scared to stand on your own two feet is rather a weak argument. The UK mostly does stand on its own two feet anyway. The EU is there, and it does do stuff, and make laws, however you look at the USA and the states there have far less powers than the governments of EU countries.
However the UK does need friends. It's been allied with the US for a long, long time. The EU isn't going to go away and the UK will probably still be close allies with the EU.

Look, for example, at France and Belgium. Both had bombs and terrorist attacks. Neither invaded Iraq. They were tied to the UK, US and Spain played a part too, but they had nothing to do with it, but suffered anyway. The UK isn't in a different position to that, it's part of the West, an integral part. Whatever the EU does, the UK is going to be brought into it, without a say.

Someone did a look at the polls, and said that the stay camp is ahead on an average of those polls. Plus this doesn't include those who don't live in the UK, but can vote, many of whom will be voting to stay.

The fact of uncertainty generates its own jitters. A known 'Brexit' vote means that the stock market will, then, have some idea of the UK's future. They may view it favourably (as they WILL, once we start to create our new trading agreements, of course) .. or, temporarily, 'doom & gloom' may predominate. It will not last forever, though, and the markets will recover once we make the progress that we ultimately cannot help but make. There is a wider, larger, trading market out there, outside the EU. There can be no reason for our not taking full advantage of it.

If we do suffer damage post-Breit, it'll be because the EU acts to inflict that damage. In so doing, it'll absolutely prove the 'with friends like that, who needs enemies' truth about the EU. I can't say that the EU won't be spiteful. I truly CAN say, though, that the EU is a fragile edifice .. only as strong as its weakest link.

That would be -- Greece again ? Spain ? Portugal ? What further defaults will the EU know, courtesy of its 'weakest links' ? Are we better viewing that at a distance, or, tied rather more fully into the EU's crisis, being damaged by it ??

We can escape that house of cards. Or, we can tumble along with the rest of it, when future crises hit. Which is better for us ?

I agree that the idea of the UK being too scared to stand on our own two feet IS a weak argument .. it remains so, because UK citizens are made of sterner stuff ! Otherwise, there'd be no likelihood at all of our going for Brexit ... we'd just knuckle under, and all the polls would indicate that for next Thursday. And I'm sure that those on the 'Remain' side, not forgetting Obama, hate the truth of that. All their threats, all their at times ludicrous scaremongering, have NOT driven the 'leave' camp off, running for the hills. Au contraire ...

Terrorists TERRORISE .... the clue's in the name. This they will think they can do a better job with, if those they target could be said to lack a backbone. A power not afraid to fight terrorists, as we weren't in Iraq, is one they'll think twice about attacking. Weak targets are better than more stalwart ones. England could've been attacked instead of France, or Belgium. But, no. Those two countries were considered easier targets. Who's to say that future EU laws won't weaken our security interests (as they do now, with the EU's insistence on porous borders within the EU ???)

Your wording:

Whatever the EU does, the UK is going to be brought into it, without a say

... perfectly describes a UK that remains tied to the EU. Doesn't it .. ? Oh, as part of the EU, we will have our ONE vote, amongst a couple of DOZEN others. Disenfranchised from the EU, we can strengthen our borders as WE choose.

We deserve that freedom.

As for the polls .. no poll proves a thing. Our own polls were incorrect about a 'hung Parliament', and consistently so, in the run-up to our last General Election. They might well be correct in hinting at a Brexit victory. But nothing is certain. Only actual voting will make it so.

Oh, as for your being 'Left Wing' .. this I didn't doubt. The penomenon of a strong pro-'Remain' arguer was less likely from a Right winger, and you, as a Left winger, will crave greater global political ties and have a contempt for national borders. This is a 'given'.

Well .. some of us want our own national identity. Yes, really. We want our own borders, subject to OUR control. We want to claw back the many billions the EU takes from us much as a 'protection racket' would. We want to cease to be obliged to bend our lawmaking to satisfy EU edicts !!

It's rather 'naughty' of us, eh. But ... there it is. Roll on Thursday, and a successful Brexit outcome !!

 

[frigidweirdo]

"hiccups" that could cost the UK 500 billion a year or more, in order to save paying 11 billion a year.... and this could last for two or three years and the subsequent impact this has on employment and confidence later down the line. Plus the chance that the UK has less trade in the future. As I said, trade increased massively with countries that joined the EU. This could just diminish as it had grown.

Trading ties might increase over time. They might not be as good as they were under the EU, especially with EU countries.

You talk about the outlandish fees, but they are nothing compared with what the UK will lose.

If it lose 500 million a year for 2 years, then this is 100 years worth of EU fees.

'Could' this ... 'could' that .... really, this is all speculation on your part. Alarmist speculation at that.

When you really get down to it, the anti-Brexit side has been foisting alarmist, scaremongering stuff our way pretty much from day one. We're supposed to be scared of standing on our own two feet, as a 'standalone' political entity. So much better THAT outcome, eh, than to have autonomy. The freedom to be ourselves, and not just some satellite of the EU !!

Of course it's all speculation. That's what we're dealing with here.

However I'm basing my speculation on facts that have happened.

We know the pound has dropped against the Euro in the last 2 weeks, that amounts to the UK losing 100 billion a year in trade, even without a reduction in trade. I've shown you possible outcomes. If the pound drops to 0.7 against the Euro the UK will lose 500 billion a year. This is not speculation, this is the reality. The reality you and the Brexit people have been ignoring.

All the Brexit people have done, and you are doing too, is to shout down anyone or anything they don't agree with. Obama comes and says his piece "oh, you can't listen to him, he hates Britain because he moved the bust of Churchill from outside the Oval Office", the Chancellor says the treasury will have less money and have to increase taxes "oh, this is scaremongering", when in fact it actually looks like the most likely scenario.

How can this be the Brexit's main argument?

Scared of standing in your own two feet? I'd be scared. Why? Because almost every argument the Brexit people have, it appears to be the UK GOVERNMENT who have messed things up, and not the EU (welfare, immigration). Because they're talking about saving money, and the reality is the UK is not going to save any money. As I pointed out, if the scenario of losing 500 billion happens, which is an easily achievable scenario for the UK, then it's 100 years before that outweighs the cost of being in the EU right now.

You're speculating, you've been telling me how wonderful things will be. And I've pointed to Helmut Kohl doing the same thing, and this leading to Germany having 25 difficult years.

Do I understand from your argument that a subjective judgment made on the 'quality' of our Government means that we should surrender autonomy to a foreign power, permanently ?

I say again: uncertainty will always give the financial markets some jitters. That's actually all it is, right now, and says nothing for the correctness or otherwise of an outcome following a successful Brexit vote. You are trading on those 'jitters' and coming to a false conclusion about them.

I for one have made no attempt to 'shout you down' ... and, how could anyone do any such thing to you, here ? OK ... your lack of transparency regarding your agenda - and its source - is a disappointment, if also predictable. But, so what ? You can, and do, state your views unencumbered by such considerations.

On Obama ... he tried to subject us to an empty threat. By the time America's choice of when, how, to what extent, they chose to forge trading ties with us, this would come AFTER Obama had left Office, meaning he'd have no ability to enforce his threat. But such was the imperative that drove HIM, he made his threat regardless.

And you think we should be scared of standing on our own two feet, eh ? Tut tut ! We should have no confidence in ourselves, as a 'standalone' power ? We, an ex-Empire power, one that at one time heavily influenced the fate of much of this world ! Well ... the anti-Brexit side has relied on threats and scaremongering to win the day, even to threaten a possibility of WWIII, and to suggest the demise of 'western political civilisation'. They have precious little respect for us ... including our intelligence, evidently !! They have zero regard for our abilities as our own nation ! People have every right to react against such disreputable shabbiness.

I strongly suspect that it'll be - very clearly so, once the proper post-voting reviews are completed, in the media and in political circles - the 'Remain' side who we will see led us all to a Brexit victory !!

No, you don't understand correctly, which I understand, this is not a simple argument here.

The point I was making was that you said you (as an individual) would be better off with the UK leaving the EU.

I've pointed out that, in reality the difference between foreigners in Brussels making laws and British people in Westminster making laws isn't actually that different.

A person in Brussels might be thinking what is best for the people, while a person in Westminster might be thinking what's best for themselves. Or the reverse is also true. I've met politicians who are self centered and I've met ones who are extremely empathetic and put their life's work into helping people. Where they're from doesn't matter.

I'm on the left of the political spectrum, but if I were in the Labour Party I'd be on the right of that party. I disagree with many people on the left, I saw what Labour has done to the UK in some ways and seen good, and in other ways seen bad. The same in the US, the left has done some good, and some bad. The same with Germany, Austria, probably not Spain as both sides in Spain are so incompetent it's ridiculous.

The point being that political autonomy doesn't actually mean as much as people are making it out to mean, you're still being run by politicians, politicians who are sometimes good and sometimes bad, even if they claim to represent you in some way (through party affiliations, through nationality or whatever).



Yes, uncertainty will give jitters. So far these jitters have wiped 100 billion from the UK's trade. More jitters and it's going down. However a currency is worth what? Sometimes currencies are worth what people think they're worth, other times what the society can produce. If the UK produces less, and things cost more, then the pound will remain lower for much longer, if not indefinitely.

However, what I've spoken about the massive jitters that will be an almost certainty if the UK leaves the EU, and for a long period of time until the UK gets itself sorted out.
These jitters will cost a lot of people (who may have voted leave) their jobs, it will reduce their spending power, it'll make them worse off than being in the EU. The laws that might be different will hardly affect their lives, immigration won't be reduced any more than it would be otherwise, unless of course a whole load of EU citizens get kicked out of the UK and a whole load of people (who don't get polled and will be voting stay) who live in the EU will have to come back. The chances of this happening are not that great, so a lot of them will stay. The non-EU citizens won't have much to worry about, nothing changes for them anyway.


You have made attempts to shout me down, not like that other guy, I forget his name, but he's on here every day. What you have done is, as I've told you before, gone off on one about where I'm from, even after I made it clear I wasn't interested in talking about that, and I told you why. Also you've taken up the mantle of the Brexit people in saying stuff like "that's wrong".
However, you aren't like a lot of people on this board, you will discuss things, and I have had good debate with you.

Your argument about being scared to stand on your own two feet is rather a weak argument. The UK mostly does stand on its own two feet anyway. The EU is there, and it does do stuff, and make laws, however you look at the USA and the states there have far less powers than the governments of EU countries.
However the UK does need friends. It's been allied with the US for a long, long time. The EU isn't going to go away and the UK will probably still be close allies with the EU.

Look, for example, at France and Belgium. Both had bombs and terrorist attacks. Neither invaded Iraq. They were tied to the UK, US and Spain played a part too, but they had nothing to do with it, but suffered anyway. The UK isn't in a different position to that, it's part of the West, an integral part. Whatever the EU does, the UK is going to be brought into it, without a say.

Someone did a look at the polls, and said that the stay camp is ahead on an average of those polls. Plus this doesn't include those who don't live in the UK, but can vote, many of whom will be voting to stay.

The fact of uncertainty generates its own jitters. A known 'Brexit' vote means that the stock market will, then, have some idea of the UK's future. They may view it favourably (as they WILL, once we start to create our new trading agreements, of course) .. or, temporarily, 'doom & gloom' may predominate. It will not last forever, though, and the markets will recover once we make the progress that we ultimately cannot help but make. There is a wider, larger, trading market out there, outside the EU. There can be no reason for our not taking full advantage of it.

If we do suffer damage post-Breit, it'll be because the EU acts to inflict that damage. In so doing, it'll absolutely prove the 'with friends like that, who needs enemies' truth about the EU. I can't say that the EU won't be spiteful. I truly CAN say, though, that the EU is a fragile edifice .. only as strong as its weakest link.

That would be -- Greece again ? Spain ? Portugal ? What further defaults will the EU know, courtesy of its 'weakest links' ? Are we better viewing that at a distance, or, tied rather more fully into the EU's crisis, being damaged by it ??

We can escape that house of cards. Or, we can tumble along with the rest of it, when future crises hit. Which is better for us ?

I agree that the idea of the UK being too scared to stand on our own two feet IS a weak argument .. it remains so, because UK citizens are made of sterner stuff ! Otherwise, there'd be no likelihood at all of our going for Brexit ... we'd just knuckle under, and all the polls would indicate that for next Thursday. And I'm sure that those on the 'Remain' side, not forgetting Obama, hate the truth of that. All their threats, all their at times ludicrous scaremongering, have NOT driven the 'leave' camp off, running for the hills. Au contraire ...

Terrorists TERRORISE .... the clue's in the name. This they will think they can do a better job with, if those they target could be said to lack a backbone. A power not afraid to fight terrorists, as we weren't in Iraq, is one they'll think twice about attacking. Weak targets are better than more stalwart ones. England could've been attacked instead of France, or Belgium. But, no. Those two countries were considered easier targets. Who's to say that future EU laws won't weaken our security interests (as they do now, with the EU's insistence on porous borders within the EU ???)

Your wording:

Whatever the EU does, the UK is going to be brought into it, without a say

... perfectly describes a UK that remains tied to the EU. Doesn't it .. ? Oh, as part of the EU, we will have our ONE vote, amongst a couple of DOZEN others. Disenfranchised from the EU, we can strengthen our borders as WE choose.

We deserve that freedom.

As for the polls .. no poll proves a thing. Our own polls were incorrect about a 'hung Parliament', and consistently so, in the run-up to our last General Election. They might well be correct in hinting at a Brexit victory. But nothing is certain. Only actual voting will make it so.

Oh, as for your being 'Left Wing' .. this I didn't doubt. The penomenon of a strong pro-'Remain' arguer was less likely from a Right winger, and you, as a Left winger, will crave greater global political ties and have a contempt for national borders. This is a 'given'.

Well .. some of us want our own national identity. Yes, really. We want our own borders, subject to OUR control. We want to claw back the many billions the EU takes from us much as a 'protection racket' would. We want to cease to be obliged to bend our lawmaking to satisfy EU edicts !!

It's rather 'naughty' of us, eh. But ... there it is. Roll on Thursday, and a successful Brexit outcome !!

Again, your view on currency and the stock markets isn't based on anything other that you predicting that it will be great because it suits your argument.

What do you have to back any of this up?

As for your view that a post Brexit doom will be all the EU's fault, again, you're just making this up.

The EU might put things in place to harm the UK, no one knows this, it's a possibility. However what we're talking about here are things that will almost certainly happen, this isn't about the EU doing anything, it's about how the modern world works.

The EU is fragile, but not as fragile as those who are anti-EU would have you believe. The Euro was going to fail every year for the last, I don't know how many years. But it didn't fail.

"UK citizens are made of sterner stuff", sounds like nationalist rhetoric.
Harping back to the Battle of Britain and the Blitz and all of that.

Actually Belgium and France were attacked for reasons that have something to do with these countries. The UK was also attacked, by people from the UK, as France and Belgium were attacked by people from those countries.

You've twisted what I said about the power of the EU. If the UK leaves, the UK won't have a say within the EU, but the EU will still be there. I don't think you get this point. The EU is a large entity right on every border. Its power will grow and its power will dominate, whether you like it or not. The only chance you have is to stay in and sort things out.

As for strengthening your own border and having the freedom to do that, sure. But the more the borders are strengthened, the more trade suffers.

And who is the UK going to stop coming in? The non-EU citizens the UK govt already has total control over these, so...... what's going to change? Nothing.
The EU citizens, is the UK going to stop the French, the Spanish, the Germans etc from going to the UK? Will it kick out the Poles who are a source of cheaper labour who work well? Who would the UK actually prevent from coming to the UK? Also, the immigrants will still go, why? Because the welfare system is messed up.

Again, I've made these arguments 10 times and each time you brush them off without actually saying much, just you view some utopia on the other side.


I think your biggest problem will be the same for the German people in 1990. If Brexit is successful, I think you'll find the other side is rather darker and gloomier than you could ever have imagined. Germany spent 25 years getting out of that, it was a painful process for many.
Your arguments appear to be wishes, rather than based on reality and on how things work. You're quick to brush off what I say without really considering the reality. Nothing will change your view, the truth doesn't matter, you're interested in the utopia you believe will exist, but won't happen. Facts for you are meaningless.

 

[Phoenall]

'Could' this ... 'could' that .... really, this is all speculation on your part. Alarmist speculation at that.

When you really get down to it, the anti-Brexit side has been foisting alarmist, scaremongering stuff our way pretty much from day one. We're supposed to be scared of standing on our own two feet, as a 'standalone' political entity. So much better THAT outcome, eh, than to have autonomy. The freedom to be ourselves, and not just some satellite of the EU !!

Of course it's all speculation. That's what we're dealing with here.

However I'm basing my speculation on facts that have happened.

We know the pound has dropped against the Euro in the last 2 weeks, that amounts to the UK losing 100 billion a year in trade, even without a reduction in trade. I've shown you possible outcomes. If the pound drops to 0.7 against the Euro the UK will lose 500 billion a year. This is not speculation, this is the reality. The reality you and the Brexit people have been ignoring.

All the Brexit people have done, and you are doing too, is to shout down anyone or anything they don't agree with. Obama comes and says his piece "oh, you can't listen to him, he hates Britain because he moved the bust of Churchill from outside the Oval Office", the Chancellor says the treasury will have less money and have to increase taxes "oh, this is scaremongering", when in fact it actually looks like the most likely scenario.

How can this be the Brexit's main argument?

Scared of standing in your own two feet? I'd be scared. Why? Because almost every argument the Brexit people have, it appears to be the UK GOVERNMENT who have messed things up, and not the EU (welfare, immigration). Because they're talking about saving money, and the reality is the UK is not going to save any money. As I pointed out, if the scenario of losing 500 billion happens, which is an easily achievable scenario for the UK, then it's 100 years before that outweighs the cost of being in the EU right now.

You're speculating, you've been telling me how wonderful things will be. And I've pointed to Helmut Kohl doing the same thing, and this leading to Germany having 25 difficult years.

Do I understand from your argument that a subjective judgment made on the 'quality' of our Government means that we should surrender autonomy to a foreign power, permanently ?

I say again: uncertainty will always give the financial markets some jitters. That's actually all it is, right now, and says nothing for the correctness or otherwise of an outcome following a successful Brexit vote. You are trading on those 'jitters' and coming to a false conclusion about them.

I for one have made no attempt to 'shout you down' ... and, how could anyone do any such thing to you, here ? OK ... your lack of transparency regarding your agenda - and its source - is a disappointment, if also predictable. But, so what ? You can, and do, state your views unencumbered by such considerations.

On Obama ... he tried to subject us to an empty threat. By the time America's choice of when, how, to what extent, they chose to forge trading ties with us, this would come AFTER Obama had left Office, meaning he'd have no ability to enforce his threat. But such was the imperative that drove HIM, he made his threat regardless.

And you think we should be scared of standing on our own two feet, eh ? Tut tut ! We should have no confidence in ourselves, as a 'standalone' power ? We, an ex-Empire power, one that at one time heavily influenced the fate of much of this world ! Well ... the anti-Brexit side has relied on threats and scaremongering to win the day, even to threaten a possibility of WWIII, and to suggest the demise of 'western political civilisation'. They have precious little respect for us ... including our intelligence, evidently !! They have zero regard for our abilities as our own nation ! People have every right to react against such disreputable shabbiness.

I strongly suspect that it'll be - very clearly so, once the proper post-voting reviews are completed, in the media and in political circles - the 'Remain' side who we will see led us all to a Brexit victory !!

No, you don't understand correctly, which I understand, this is not a simple argument here.

The point I was making was that you said you (as an individual) would be better off with the UK leaving the EU.

I've pointed out that, in reality the difference between foreigners in Brussels making laws and British people in Westminster making laws isn't actually that different.

A person in Brussels might be thinking what is best for the people, while a person in Westminster might be thinking what's best for themselves. Or the reverse is also true. I've met politicians who are self centered and I've met ones who are extremely empathetic and put their life's work into helping people. Where they're from doesn't matter.

I'm on the left of the political spectrum, but if I were in the Labour Party I'd be on the right of that party. I disagree with many people on the left, I saw what Labour has done to the UK in some ways and seen good, and in other ways seen bad. The same in the US, the left has done some good, and some bad. The same with Germany, Austria, probably not Spain as both sides in Spain are so incompetent it's ridiculous.

The point being that political autonomy doesn't actually mean as much as people are making it out to mean, you're still being run by politicians, politicians who are sometimes good and sometimes bad, even if they claim to represent you in some way (through party affiliations, through nationality or whatever).



Yes, uncertainty will give jitters. So far these jitters have wiped 100 billion from the UK's trade. More jitters and it's going down. However a currency is worth what? Sometimes currencies are worth what people think they're worth, other times what the society can produce. If the UK produces less, and things cost more, then the pound will remain lower for much longer, if not indefinitely.

However, what I've spoken about the massive jitters that will be an almost certainty if the UK leaves the EU, and for a long period of time until the UK gets itself sorted out.
These jitters will cost a lot of people (who may have voted leave) their jobs, it will reduce their spending power, it'll make them worse off than being in the EU. The laws that might be different will hardly affect their lives, immigration won't be reduced any more than it would be otherwise, unless of course a whole load of EU citizens get kicked out of the UK and a whole load of people (who don't get polled and will be voting stay) who live in the EU will have to come back. The chances of this happening are not that great, so a lot of them will stay. The non-EU citizens won't have much to worry about, nothing changes for them anyway.


You have made attempts to shout me down, not like that other guy, I forget his name, but he's on here every day. What you have done is, as I've told you before, gone off on one about where I'm from, even after I made it clear I wasn't interested in talking about that, and I told you why. Also you've taken up the mantle of the Brexit people in saying stuff like "that's wrong".
However, you aren't like a lot of people on this board, you will discuss things, and I have had good debate with you.

Your argument about being scared to stand on your own two feet is rather a weak argument. The UK mostly does stand on its own two feet anyway. The EU is there, and it does do stuff, and make laws, however you look at the USA and the states there have far less powers than the governments of EU countries.
However the UK does need friends. It's been allied with the US for a long, long time. The EU isn't going to go away and the UK will probably still be close allies with the EU.

Look, for example, at France and Belgium. Both had bombs and terrorist attacks. Neither invaded Iraq. They were tied to the UK, US and Spain played a part too, but they had nothing to do with it, but suffered anyway. The UK isn't in a different position to that, it's part of the West, an integral part. Whatever the EU does, the UK is going to be brought into it, without a say.

Someone did a look at the polls, and said that the stay camp is ahead on an average of those polls. Plus this doesn't include those who don't live in the UK, but can vote, many of whom will be voting to stay.

The fact of uncertainty generates its own jitters. A known 'Brexit' vote means that the stock market will, then, have some idea of the UK's future. They may view it favourably (as they WILL, once we start to create our new trading agreements, of course) .. or, temporarily, 'doom & gloom' may predominate. It will not last forever, though, and the markets will recover once we make the progress that we ultimately cannot help but make. There is a wider, larger, trading market out there, outside the EU. There can be no reason for our not taking full advantage of it.

If we do suffer damage post-Breit, it'll be because the EU acts to inflict that damage. In so doing, it'll absolutely prove the 'with friends like that, who needs enemies' truth about the EU. I can't say that the EU won't be spiteful. I truly CAN say, though, that the EU is a fragile edifice .. only as strong as its weakest link.

That would be -- Greece again ? Spain ? Portugal ? What further defaults will the EU know, courtesy of its 'weakest links' ? Are we better viewing that at a distance, or, tied rather more fully into the EU's crisis, being damaged by it ??

We can escape that house of cards. Or, we can tumble along with the rest of it, when future crises hit. Which is better for us ?

I agree that the idea of the UK being too scared to stand on our own two feet IS a weak argument .. it remains so, because UK citizens are made of sterner stuff ! Otherwise, there'd be no likelihood at all of our going for Brexit ... we'd just knuckle under, and all the polls would indicate that for next Thursday. And I'm sure that those on the 'Remain' side, not forgetting Obama, hate the truth of that. All their threats, all their at times ludicrous scaremongering, have NOT driven the 'leave' camp off, running for the hills. Au contraire ...

Terrorists TERRORISE .... the clue's in the name. This they will think they can do a better job with, if those they target could be said to lack a backbone. A power not afraid to fight terrorists, as we weren't in Iraq, is one they'll think twice about attacking. Weak targets are better than more stalwart ones. England could've been attacked instead of France, or Belgium. But, no. Those two countries were considered easier targets. Who's to say that future EU laws won't weaken our security interests (as they do now, with the EU's insistence on porous borders within the EU ???)

Your wording:

Whatever the EU does, the UK is going to be brought into it, without a say

... perfectly describes a UK that remains tied to the EU. Doesn't it .. ? Oh, as part of the EU, we will have our ONE vote, amongst a couple of DOZEN others. Disenfranchised from the EU, we can strengthen our borders as WE choose.

We deserve that freedom.

As for the polls .. no poll proves a thing. Our own polls were incorrect about a 'hung Parliament', and consistently so, in the run-up to our last General Election. They might well be correct in hinting at a Brexit victory. But nothing is certain. Only actual voting will make it so.

Oh, as for your being 'Left Wing' .. this I didn't doubt. The penomenon of a strong pro-'Remain' arguer was less likely from a Right winger, and you, as a Left winger, will crave greater global political ties and have a contempt for national borders. This is a 'given'.

Well .. some of us want our own national identity. Yes, really. We want our own borders, subject to OUR control. We want to claw back the many billions the EU takes from us much as a 'protection racket' would. We want to cease to be obliged to bend our lawmaking to satisfy EU edicts !!

It's rather 'naughty' of us, eh. But ... there it is. Roll on Thursday, and a successful Brexit outcome !!

Again, your view on currency and the stock markets isn't based on anything other that you predicting that it will be great because it suits your argument.

What do you have to back any of this up?

As for your view that a post Brexit doom will be all the EU's fault, again, you're just making this up.

The EU might put things in place to harm the UK, no one knows this, it's a possibility. However what we're talking about here are things that will almost certainly happen, this isn't about the EU doing anything, it's about how the modern world works.

The EU is fragile, but not as fragile as those who are anti-EU would have you believe. The Euro was going to fail every year for the last, I don't know how many years. But it didn't fail.

"UK citizens are made of sterner stuff", sounds like nationalist rhetoric.
Harping back to the Battle of Britain and the Blitz and all of that.

Actually Belgium and France were attacked for reasons that have something to do with these countries. The UK was also attacked, by people from the UK, as France and Belgium were attacked by people from those countries.

You've twisted what I said about the power of the EU. If the UK leaves, the UK won't have a say within the EU, but the EU will still be there. I don't think you get this point. The EU is a large entity right on every border. Its power will grow and its power will dominate, whether you like it or not. The only chance you have is to stay in and sort things out.

As for strengthening your own border and having the freedom to do that, sure. But the more the borders are strengthened, the more trade suffers.

And who is the UK going to stop coming in? The non-EU citizens the UK govt already has total control over these, so...... what's going to change? Nothing.
The EU citizens, is the UK going to stop the French, the Spanish, the Germans etc from going to the UK? Will it kick out the Poles who are a source of cheaper labour who work well? Who would the UK actually prevent from coming to the UK? Also, the immigrants will still go, why? Because the welfare system is messed up.

Again, I've made these arguments 10 times and each time you brush them off without actually saying much, just you view some utopia on the other side.


I think your biggest problem will be the same for the German people in 1990. If Brexit is successful, I think you'll find the other side is rather darker and gloomier than you could ever have imagined. Germany spent 25 years getting out of that, it was a painful process for many.
Your arguments appear to be wishes, rather than based on reality and on how things work. You're quick to brush off what I say without really considering the reality. Nothing will change your view, the truth doesn't matter, you're interested in the utopia you believe will exist, but won't happen. Facts for you are meaningless.

So what will change then as the EU already puts things in place to harm the UK.

Correct the UK wont have a say in Europe, at the same time the EU will no longer have a say in the UK and will be powerless to force change. No more demanding we support the Euro even though we voted to stay out of the Eurozone. No more threats when we stand up for our rights, and no more being ruled by unelected eurocrats making laws to suit themselves.
First step is to withdraw from the European court system and start deporting foreign criminals. Then stop all welfare for migrants other than what they would have received in their own countries. Stop taking in Islamic terrorists pretending to be refugee's. Take control of our lives again and let us market our goods under the names they were marketed before the EU walked all over us with it's size 12's.

I wonder how he EU will cope when its 80% more trade deficit ( £500billion x 4 = £2 trillion ) hits. Can it absorb that cost do you think and still stay afloat. Then where will the projected migrants from the likes of Turkey go to live when the UK is closed and locked down tight. Ready the old carriages with welded doors so that there is only one entrance to them to take them all back to France.

 

[Drummond]

'Could' this ... 'could' that .... really, this is all speculation on your part. Alarmist speculation at that.

When you really get down to it, the anti-Brexit side has been foisting alarmist, scaremongering stuff our way pretty much from day one. We're supposed to be scared of standing on our own two feet, as a 'standalone' political entity. So much better THAT outcome, eh, than to have autonomy. The freedom to be ourselves, and not just some satellite of the EU !!

Of course it's all speculation. That's what we're dealing with here.

However I'm basing my speculation on facts that have happened.

We know the pound has dropped against the Euro in the last 2 weeks, that amounts to the UK losing 100 billion a year in trade, even without a reduction in trade. I've shown you possible outcomes. If the pound drops to 0.7 against the Euro the UK will lose 500 billion a year. This is not speculation, this is the reality. The reality you and the Brexit people have been ignoring.

All the Brexit people have done, and you are doing too, is to shout down anyone or anything they don't agree with. Obama comes and says his piece "oh, you can't listen to him, he hates Britain because he moved the bust of Churchill from outside the Oval Office", the Chancellor says the treasury will have less money and have to increase taxes "oh, this is scaremongering", when in fact it actually looks like the most likely scenario.

How can this be the Brexit's main argument?

Scared of standing in your own two feet? I'd be scared. Why? Because almost every argument the Brexit people have, it appears to be the UK GOVERNMENT who have messed things up, and not the EU (welfare, immigration). Because they're talking about saving money, and the reality is the UK is not going to save any money. As I pointed out, if the scenario of losing 500 billion happens, which is an easily achievable scenario for the UK, then it's 100 years before that outweighs the cost of being in the EU right now.

You're speculating, you've been telling me how wonderful things will be. And I've pointed to Helmut Kohl doing the same thing, and this leading to Germany having 25 difficult years.

Do I understand from your argument that a subjective judgment made on the 'quality' of our Government means that we should surrender autonomy to a foreign power, permanently ?

I say again: uncertainty will always give the financial markets some jitters. That's actually all it is, right now, and says nothing for the correctness or otherwise of an outcome following a successful Brexit vote. You are trading on those 'jitters' and coming to a false conclusion about them.

I for one have made no attempt to 'shout you down' ... and, how could anyone do any such thing to you, here ? OK ... your lack of transparency regarding your agenda - and its source - is a disappointment, if also predictable. But, so what ? You can, and do, state your views unencumbered by such considerations.

On Obama ... he tried to subject us to an empty threat. By the time America's choice of when, how, to what extent, they chose to forge trading ties with us, this would come AFTER Obama had left Office, meaning he'd have no ability to enforce his threat. But such was the imperative that drove HIM, he made his threat regardless.

And you think we should be scared of standing on our own two feet, eh ? Tut tut ! We should have no confidence in ourselves, as a 'standalone' power ? We, an ex-Empire power, one that at one time heavily influenced the fate of much of this world ! Well ... the anti-Brexit side has relied on threats and scaremongering to win the day, even to threaten a possibility of WWIII, and to suggest the demise of 'western political civilisation'. They have precious little respect for us ... including our intelligence, evidently !! They have zero regard for our abilities as our own nation ! People have every right to react against such disreputable shabbiness.

I strongly suspect that it'll be - very clearly so, once the proper post-voting reviews are completed, in the media and in political circles - the 'Remain' side who we will see led us all to a Brexit victory !!

No, you don't understand correctly, which I understand, this is not a simple argument here.

The point I was making was that you said you (as an individual) would be better off with the UK leaving the EU.

I've pointed out that, in reality the difference between foreigners in Brussels making laws and British people in Westminster making laws isn't actually that different.

A person in Brussels might be thinking what is best for the people, while a person in Westminster might be thinking what's best for themselves. Or the reverse is also true. I've met politicians who are self centered and I've met ones who are extremely empathetic and put their life's work into helping people. Where they're from doesn't matter.

I'm on the left of the political spectrum, but if I were in the Labour Party I'd be on the right of that party. I disagree with many people on the left, I saw what Labour has done to the UK in some ways and seen good, and in other ways seen bad. The same in the US, the left has done some good, and some bad. The same with Germany, Austria, probably not Spain as both sides in Spain are so incompetent it's ridiculous.

The point being that political autonomy doesn't actually mean as much as people are making it out to mean, you're still being run by politicians, politicians who are sometimes good and sometimes bad, even if they claim to represent you in some way (through party affiliations, through nationality or whatever).



Yes, uncertainty will give jitters. So far these jitters have wiped 100 billion from the UK's trade. More jitters and it's going down. However a currency is worth what? Sometimes currencies are worth what people think they're worth, other times what the society can produce. If the UK produces less, and things cost more, then the pound will remain lower for much longer, if not indefinitely.

However, what I've spoken about the massive jitters that will be an almost certainty if the UK leaves the EU, and for a long period of time until the UK gets itself sorted out.
These jitters will cost a lot of people (who may have voted leave) their jobs, it will reduce their spending power, it'll make them worse off than being in the EU. The laws that might be different will hardly affect their lives, immigration won't be reduced any more than it would be otherwise, unless of course a whole load of EU citizens get kicked out of the UK and a whole load of people (who don't get polled and will be voting stay) who live in the EU will have to come back. The chances of this happening are not that great, so a lot of them will stay. The non-EU citizens won't have much to worry about, nothing changes for them anyway.


You have made attempts to shout me down, not like that other guy, I forget his name, but he's on here every day. What you have done is, as I've told you before, gone off on one about where I'm from, even after I made it clear I wasn't interested in talking about that, and I told you why. Also you've taken up the mantle of the Brexit people in saying stuff like "that's wrong".
However, you aren't like a lot of people on this board, you will discuss things, and I have had good debate with you.

Your argument about being scared to stand on your own two feet is rather a weak argument. The UK mostly does stand on its own two feet anyway. The EU is there, and it does do stuff, and make laws, however you look at the USA and the states there have far less powers than the governments of EU countries.
However the UK does need friends. It's been allied with the US for a long, long time. The EU isn't going to go away and the UK will probably still be close allies with the EU.

Look, for example, at France and Belgium. Both had bombs and terrorist attacks. Neither invaded Iraq. They were tied to the UK, US and Spain played a part too, but they had nothing to do with it, but suffered anyway. The UK isn't in a different position to that, it's part of the West, an integral part. Whatever the EU does, the UK is going to be brought into it, without a say.

Someone did a look at the polls, and said that the stay camp is ahead on an average of those polls. Plus this doesn't include those who don't live in the UK, but can vote, many of whom will be voting to stay.

The fact of uncertainty generates its own jitters. A known 'Brexit' vote means that the stock market will, then, have some idea of the UK's future. They may view it favourably (as they WILL, once we start to create our new trading agreements, of course) .. or, temporarily, 'doom & gloom' may predominate. It will not last forever, though, and the markets will recover once we make the progress that we ultimately cannot help but make. There is a wider, larger, trading market out there, outside the EU. There can be no reason for our not taking full advantage of it.

If we do suffer damage post-Breit, it'll be because the EU acts to inflict that damage. In so doing, it'll absolutely prove the 'with friends like that, who needs enemies' truth about the EU. I can't say that the EU won't be spiteful. I truly CAN say, though, that the EU is a fragile edifice .. only as strong as its weakest link.

That would be -- Greece again ? Spain ? Portugal ? What further defaults will the EU know, courtesy of its 'weakest links' ? Are we better viewing that at a distance, or, tied rather more fully into the EU's crisis, being damaged by it ??

We can escape that house of cards. Or, we can tumble along with the rest of it, when future crises hit. Which is better for us ?

I agree that the idea of the UK being too scared to stand on our own two feet IS a weak argument .. it remains so, because UK citizens are made of sterner stuff ! Otherwise, there'd be no likelihood at all of our going for Brexit ... we'd just knuckle under, and all the polls would indicate that for next Thursday. And I'm sure that those on the 'Remain' side, not forgetting Obama, hate the truth of that. All their threats, all their at times ludicrous scaremongering, have NOT driven the 'leave' camp off, running for the hills. Au contraire ...

Terrorists TERRORISE .... the clue's in the name. This they will think they can do a better job with, if those they target could be said to lack a backbone. A power not afraid to fight terrorists, as we weren't in Iraq, is one they'll think twice about attacking. Weak targets are better than more stalwart ones. England could've been attacked instead of France, or Belgium. But, no. Those two countries were considered easier targets. Who's to say that future EU laws won't weaken our security interests (as they do now, with the EU's insistence on porous borders within the EU ???)

Your wording:

Whatever the EU does, the UK is going to be brought into it, without a say

... perfectly describes a UK that remains tied to the EU. Doesn't it .. ? Oh, as part of the EU, we will have our ONE vote, amongst a couple of DOZEN others. Disenfranchised from the EU, we can strengthen our borders as WE choose.

We deserve that freedom.

As for the polls .. no poll proves a thing. Our own polls were incorrect about a 'hung Parliament', and consistently so, in the run-up to our last General Election. They might well be correct in hinting at a Brexit victory. But nothing is certain. Only actual voting will make it so.

Oh, as for your being 'Left Wing' .. this I didn't doubt. The penomenon of a strong pro-'Remain' arguer was less likely from a Right winger, and you, as a Left winger, will crave greater global political ties and have a contempt for national borders. This is a 'given'.

Well .. some of us want our own national identity. Yes, really. We want our own borders, subject to OUR control. We want to claw back the many billions the EU takes from us much as a 'protection racket' would. We want to cease to be obliged to bend our lawmaking to satisfy EU edicts !!

It's rather 'naughty' of us, eh. But ... there it is. Roll on Thursday, and a successful Brexit outcome !!

Again, your view on currency and the stock markets isn't based on anything other that you predicting that it will be great because it suits your argument.

What do you have to back any of this up?

As for your view that a post Brexit doom will be all the EU's fault, again, you're just making this up.

The EU might put things in place to harm the UK, no one knows this, it's a possibility. However what we're talking about here are things that will almost certainly happen, this isn't about the EU doing anything, it's about how the modern world works.

The EU is fragile, but not as fragile as those who are anti-EU would have you believe. The Euro was going to fail every year for the last, I don't know how many years. But it didn't fail.

"UK citizens are made of sterner stuff", sounds like nationalist rhetoric.
Harping back to the Battle of Britain and the Blitz and all of that.

Actually Belgium and France were attacked for reasons that have something to do with these countries. The UK was also attacked, by people from the UK, as France and Belgium were attacked by people from those countries.

You've twisted what I said about the power of the EU. If the UK leaves, the UK won't have a say within the EU, but the EU will still be there. I don't think you get this point. The EU is a large entity right on every border. Its power will grow and its power will dominate, whether you like it or not. The only chance you have is to stay in and sort things out.

As for strengthening your own border and having the freedom to do that, sure. But the more the borders are strengthened, the more trade suffers.

And who is the UK going to stop coming in? The non-EU citizens the UK govt already has total control over these, so...... what's going to change? Nothing.
The EU citizens, is the UK going to stop the French, the Spanish, the Germans etc from going to the UK? Will it kick out the Poles who are a source of cheaper labour who work well? Who would the UK actually prevent from coming to the UK? Also, the immigrants will still go, why? Because the welfare system is messed up.

Again, I've made these arguments 10 times and each time you brush them off without actually saying much, just you view some utopia on the other side.


I think your biggest problem will be the same for the German people in 1990. If Brexit is successful, I think you'll find the other side is rather darker and gloomier than you could ever have imagined. Germany spent 25 years getting out of that, it was a painful process for many.
Your arguments appear to be wishes, rather than based on reality and on how things work. You're quick to brush off what I say without really considering the reality. Nothing will change your view, the truth doesn't matter, you're interested in the utopia you believe will exist, but won't happen. Facts for you are meaningless.

This is getting tiresome, to be honest.

You have no reason at all to suppose that the UK can't find its own way, be profitable, know a bright future outside of the EU, and well we both know it. Since that's the case, it obviously follows that the markets, too, IF they react against the likelihood of Brexit, do so purely through a perception of uncertainty as to the UK's immediate future.

You can say I can't know we will do well. I say you can't know we won't. And so, we'll go around in circles.

But I'll tell you something I am sure of, because we've already had a taste of this truth ... namely, the EU is only 'strong' on paper. The reality is that there are weak currencies within the EU as well as strong ones, and any of them could default. Being tied into the Euro, the Euro is weakened by any - yes - UNCERTAINTY about its future. Greece gave us a taste of the Euro's fragility ... small base though their economy has ! - if larger economies buckle, the Euro collapses upon itself as others Member States enter into a bailout action that'll cripple them all !!

If we're in the EU, we'll be part of a sinking ship. If we're not, we'll just know some turbulence from the financial waves a sinking EU will create.

On 23rd June, we can contrive to build ourselves the life-raft of being UNtethered to the EU. Or, we can stay aboard the ship, and sink with it instead, once the crisis (or series of them) hits.

It's our choice. Survival (and eventual enviable prosperity) .. or ... ruination. No, not like the 'WWIII is in prospect', or 'it'll spell the end of western political civilisation if we leave' scaremongering rot, that stuff borne of sheer desperation. Nope. we'll be ruined by being closely tied to failing economies ... needlessly so.

I say ... we can find our backbone, be a proud nation, make our own future. Or, we can sink out of sight if / when the EU goes belly-up, as Greece has already shown us it COULD.

Our choice.

Let's make it a wise one.

And consider. Much of the scaremongering fantasist stuff, extremist claims, have come from people who PERMITTED US THE MEANS TO LEAVE THE EU. Now, would they have granted us a Referendum, if it could spell doom and gloom for us if we chose the Brexit route ? Why not just deny us all the Referendum and ensure our so-called 'rosy future', if in fact that was the only way we could have one ???

 

[montelatici]

What did Greece show? It showed no more than what Puerto Rico is showing today in the U.S. Greece is a tiny percentage of the EU economy.

 

[Drummond]

What did Greece show? It showed no more than what Puerto Rico is showing today in the U.S. Greece is a tiny percentage of the EU economy.

See this ... then tell me how a long-term propping-up of an economy even as small as Greece's (.. never mind larger economies, such as Portugal's !) can be tolerated anything like indefinitely within the EU .. and, for that matter, why Member States should feel obliged to be a part of this crippling status quo ....

IMF tells EU it must give Greece unconditional debt relief

The International Monetary Fund has called for “upfront” and “unconditional” debt relief for Greece as it warned that without immediate action the financial plight of the recession-ravaged country would deteriorate dramatically over the coming decades.

In a strongly worded assessment, the IMF said that there was no prospect of Greece meeting the draconian terms of its current bailout plan and that interest payments on the soaring national debt would eat up 60% of the budget by 2060 in the absence of debt forgiveness.

The debt sustainability analysis by the Washington-based Fund said Greece should have longer to pay, have the interest rate on its loans fixed at 1.5%, and that its creditors should make debt relief automatic once the bailout programme ends in 2018.

The Fund admitted its proposals for easing Greece’s debt burden would not be easy for some countries to accept, because it would involve member states making a commitment to compensate the European Stability Mechanism – Europe’s bailout fund – for any losses occurred from fixing interest rates at 1.5%.

 

[frigidweirdo]

Of course it's all speculation. That's what we're dealing with here.

However I'm basing my speculation on facts that have happened.

We know the pound has dropped against the Euro in the last 2 weeks, that amounts to the UK losing 100 billion a year in trade, even without a reduction in trade. I've shown you possible outcomes. If the pound drops to 0.7 against the Euro the UK will lose 500 billion a year. This is not speculation, this is the reality. The reality you and the Brexit people have been ignoring.

All the Brexit people have done, and you are doing too, is to shout down anyone or anything they don't agree with. Obama comes and says his piece "oh, you can't listen to him, he hates Britain because he moved the bust of Churchill from outside the Oval Office", the Chancellor says the treasury will have less money and have to increase taxes "oh, this is scaremongering", when in fact it actually looks like the most likely scenario.

How can this be the Brexit's main argument?

Scared of standing in your own two feet? I'd be scared. Why? Because almost every argument the Brexit people have, it appears to be the UK GOVERNMENT who have messed things up, and not the EU (welfare, immigration). Because they're talking about saving money, and the reality is the UK is not going to save any money. As I pointed out, if the scenario of losing 500 billion happens, which is an easily achievable scenario for the UK, then it's 100 years before that outweighs the cost of being in the EU right now.

You're speculating, you've been telling me how wonderful things will be. And I've pointed to Helmut Kohl doing the same thing, and this leading to Germany having 25 difficult years.

Do I understand from your argument that a subjective judgment made on the 'quality' of our Government means that we should surrender autonomy to a foreign power, permanently ?

I say again: uncertainty will always give the financial markets some jitters. That's actually all it is, right now, and says nothing for the correctness or otherwise of an outcome following a successful Brexit vote. You are trading on those 'jitters' and coming to a false conclusion about them.

I for one have made no attempt to 'shout you down' ... and, how could anyone do any such thing to you, here ? OK ... your lack of transparency regarding your agenda - and its source - is a disappointment, if also predictable. But, so what ? You can, and do, state your views unencumbered by such considerations.

On Obama ... he tried to subject us to an empty threat. By the time America's choice of when, how, to what extent, they chose to forge trading ties with us, this would come AFTER Obama had left Office, meaning he'd have no ability to enforce his threat. But such was the imperative that drove HIM, he made his threat regardless.

And you think we should be scared of standing on our own two feet, eh ? Tut tut ! We should have no confidence in ourselves, as a 'standalone' power ? We, an ex-Empire power, one that at one time heavily influenced the fate of much of this world ! Well ... the anti-Brexit side has relied on threats and scaremongering to win the day, even to threaten a possibility of WWIII, and to suggest the demise of 'western political civilisation'. They have precious little respect for us ... including our intelligence, evidently !! They have zero regard for our abilities as our own nation ! People have every right to react against such disreputable shabbiness.

I strongly suspect that it'll be - very clearly so, once the proper post-voting reviews are completed, in the media and in political circles - the 'Remain' side who we will see led us all to a Brexit victory !!

No, you don't understand correctly, which I understand, this is not a simple argument here.

The point I was making was that you said you (as an individual) would be better off with the UK leaving the EU.

I've pointed out that, in reality the difference between foreigners in Brussels making laws and British people in Westminster making laws isn't actually that different.

A person in Brussels might be thinking what is best for the people, while a person in Westminster might be thinking what's best for themselves. Or the reverse is also true. I've met politicians who are self centered and I've met ones who are extremely empathetic and put their life's work into helping people. Where they're from doesn't matter.

I'm on the left of the political spectrum, but if I were in the Labour Party I'd be on the right of that party. I disagree with many people on the left, I saw what Labour has done to the UK in some ways and seen good, and in other ways seen bad. The same in the US, the left has done some good, and some bad. The same with Germany, Austria, probably not Spain as both sides in Spain are so incompetent it's ridiculous.

The point being that political autonomy doesn't actually mean as much as people are making it out to mean, you're still being run by politicians, politicians who are sometimes good and sometimes bad, even if they claim to represent you in some way (through party affiliations, through nationality or whatever).



Yes, uncertainty will give jitters. So far these jitters have wiped 100 billion from the UK's trade. More jitters and it's going down. However a currency is worth what? Sometimes currencies are worth what people think they're worth, other times what the society can produce. If the UK produces less, and things cost more, then the pound will remain lower for much longer, if not indefinitely.

However, what I've spoken about the massive jitters that will be an almost certainty if the UK leaves the EU, and for a long period of time until the UK gets itself sorted out.
These jitters will cost a lot of people (who may have voted leave) their jobs, it will reduce their spending power, it'll make them worse off than being in the EU. The laws that might be different will hardly affect their lives, immigration won't be reduced any more than it would be otherwise, unless of course a whole load of EU citizens get kicked out of the UK and a whole load of people (who don't get polled and will be voting stay) who live in the EU will have to come back. The chances of this happening are not that great, so a lot of them will stay. The non-EU citizens won't have much to worry about, nothing changes for them anyway.


You have made attempts to shout me down, not like that other guy, I forget his name, but he's on here every day. What you have done is, as I've told you before, gone off on one about where I'm from, even after I made it clear I wasn't interested in talking about that, and I told you why. Also you've taken up the mantle of the Brexit people in saying stuff like "that's wrong".
However, you aren't like a lot of people on this board, you will discuss things, and I have had good debate with you.

Your argument about being scared to stand on your own two feet is rather a weak argument. The UK mostly does stand on its own two feet anyway. The EU is there, and it does do stuff, and make laws, however you look at the USA and the states there have far less powers than the governments of EU countries.
However the UK does need friends. It's been allied with the US for a long, long time. The EU isn't going to go away and the UK will probably still be close allies with the EU.

Look, for example, at France and Belgium. Both had bombs and terrorist attacks. Neither invaded Iraq. They were tied to the UK, US and Spain played a part too, but they had nothing to do with it, but suffered anyway. The UK isn't in a different position to that, it's part of the West, an integral part. Whatever the EU does, the UK is going to be brought into it, without a say.

Someone did a look at the polls, and said that the stay camp is ahead on an average of those polls. Plus this doesn't include those who don't live in the UK, but can vote, many of whom will be voting to stay.

The fact of uncertainty generates its own jitters. A known 'Brexit' vote means that the stock market will, then, have some idea of the UK's future. They may view it favourably (as they WILL, once we start to create our new trading agreements, of course) .. or, temporarily, 'doom & gloom' may predominate. It will not last forever, though, and the markets will recover once we make the progress that we ultimately cannot help but make. There is a wider, larger, trading market out there, outside the EU. There can be no reason for our not taking full advantage of it.

If we do suffer damage post-Breit, it'll be because the EU acts to inflict that damage. In so doing, it'll absolutely prove the 'with friends like that, who needs enemies' truth about the EU. I can't say that the EU won't be spiteful. I truly CAN say, though, that the EU is a fragile edifice .. only as strong as its weakest link.

That would be -- Greece again ? Spain ? Portugal ? What further defaults will the EU know, courtesy of its 'weakest links' ? Are we better viewing that at a distance, or, tied rather more fully into the EU's crisis, being damaged by it ??

We can escape that house of cards. Or, we can tumble along with the rest of it, when future crises hit. Which is better for us ?

I agree that the idea of the UK being too scared to stand on our own two feet IS a weak argument .. it remains so, because UK citizens are made of sterner stuff ! Otherwise, there'd be no likelihood at all of our going for Brexit ... we'd just knuckle under, and all the polls would indicate that for next Thursday. And I'm sure that those on the 'Remain' side, not forgetting Obama, hate the truth of that. All their threats, all their at times ludicrous scaremongering, have NOT driven the 'leave' camp off, running for the hills. Au contraire ...

Terrorists TERRORISE .... the clue's in the name. This they will think they can do a better job with, if those they target could be said to lack a backbone. A power not afraid to fight terrorists, as we weren't in Iraq, is one they'll think twice about attacking. Weak targets are better than more stalwart ones. England could've been attacked instead of France, or Belgium. But, no. Those two countries were considered easier targets. Who's to say that future EU laws won't weaken our security interests (as they do now, with the EU's insistence on porous borders within the EU ???)

Your wording:

Whatever the EU does, the UK is going to be brought into it, without a say

... perfectly describes a UK that remains tied to the EU. Doesn't it .. ? Oh, as part of the EU, we will have our ONE vote, amongst a couple of DOZEN others. Disenfranchised from the EU, we can strengthen our borders as WE choose.

We deserve that freedom.

As for the polls .. no poll proves a thing. Our own polls were incorrect about a 'hung Parliament', and consistently so, in the run-up to our last General Election. They might well be correct in hinting at a Brexit victory. But nothing is certain. Only actual voting will make it so.

Oh, as for your being 'Left Wing' .. this I didn't doubt. The penomenon of a strong pro-'Remain' arguer was less likely from a Right winger, and you, as a Left winger, will crave greater global political ties and have a contempt for national borders. This is a 'given'.

Well .. some of us want our own national identity. Yes, really. We want our own borders, subject to OUR control. We want to claw back the many billions the EU takes from us much as a 'protection racket' would. We want to cease to be obliged to bend our lawmaking to satisfy EU edicts !!

It's rather 'naughty' of us, eh. But ... there it is. Roll on Thursday, and a successful Brexit outcome !!

Again, your view on currency and the stock markets isn't based on anything other that you predicting that it will be great because it suits your argument.

What do you have to back any of this up?

As for your view that a post Brexit doom will be all the EU's fault, again, you're just making this up.

The EU might put things in place to harm the UK, no one knows this, it's a possibility. However what we're talking about here are things that will almost certainly happen, this isn't about the EU doing anything, it's about how the modern world works.

The EU is fragile, but not as fragile as those who are anti-EU would have you believe. The Euro was going to fail every year for the last, I don't know how many years. But it didn't fail.

"UK citizens are made of sterner stuff", sounds like nationalist rhetoric.
Harping back to the Battle of Britain and the Blitz and all of that.

Actually Belgium and France were attacked for reasons that have something to do with these countries. The UK was also attacked, by people from the UK, as France and Belgium were attacked by people from those countries.

You've twisted what I said about the power of the EU. If the UK leaves, the UK won't have a say within the EU, but the EU will still be there. I don't think you get this point. The EU is a large entity right on every border. Its power will grow and its power will dominate, whether you like it or not. The only chance you have is to stay in and sort things out.

As for strengthening your own border and having the freedom to do that, sure. But the more the borders are strengthened, the more trade suffers.

And who is the UK going to stop coming in? The non-EU citizens the UK govt already has total control over these, so...... what's going to change? Nothing.
The EU citizens, is the UK going to stop the French, the Spanish, the Germans etc from going to the UK? Will it kick out the Poles who are a source of cheaper labour who work well? Who would the UK actually prevent from coming to the UK? Also, the immigrants will still go, why? Because the welfare system is messed up.

Again, I've made these arguments 10 times and each time you brush them off without actually saying much, just you view some utopia on the other side.


I think your biggest problem will be the same for the German people in 1990. If Brexit is successful, I think you'll find the other side is rather darker and gloomier than you could ever have imagined. Germany spent 25 years getting out of that, it was a painful process for many.
Your arguments appear to be wishes, rather than based on reality and on how things work. You're quick to brush off what I say without really considering the reality. Nothing will change your view, the truth doesn't matter, you're interested in the utopia you believe will exist, but won't happen. Facts for you are meaningless.

This is getting tiresome, to be honest.

You have no reason at all to suppose that the UK can't find its own way, be profitable, know a bright future outside of the EU, and well we both know it. Since that's the case, it obviously follows that the markets, too, IF they react against the likelihood of Brexit, do so purely through a perception of uncertainty as to the UK's immediate future.

You can say I can't know we will do well. I say you can't know we won't. And so, we'll go around in circles.

But I'll tell you something I am sure of, because we've already had a taste of this truth ... namely, the EU is only 'strong' on paper. The reality is that there are weak currencies within the EU as well as strong ones, and any of them could default. Being tied into the Euro, the Euro is weakened by any - yes - UNCERTAINTY about its future. Greece gave us a taste of the Euro's fragility ... small base though their economy has ! - if larger economies buckle, the Euro collapses upon itself as others Member States enter into a bailout action that'll cripple them all !!

If we're in the EU, we'll be part of a sinking ship. If we're not, we'll just know some turbulence from the financial waves a sinking EU will create.

On 23rd June, we can contrive to build ourselves the life-raft of being UNtethered to the EU. Or, we can stay aboard the ship, and sink with it instead, once the crisis (or series of them) hits.

It's our choice. Survival (and eventual enviable prosperity) .. or ... ruination. No, not like the 'WWIII is in prospect', or 'it'll spell the end of western political civilisation if we leave' scaremongering rot, that stuff borne of sheer desperation. Nope. we'll be ruined by being closely tied to failing economies ... needlessly so.

I say ... we can find our backbone, be a proud nation, make our own future. Or, we can sink out of sight if / when the EU goes belly-up, as Greece has already shown us it COULD.

Our choice.

Let's make it a wise one.

And consider. Much of the scaremongering fantasist stuff, extremist claims, have come from people who PERMITTED US THE MEANS TO LEAVE THE EU. Now, would they have granted us a Referendum, if it could spell doom and gloom for us if we chose the Brexit route ? Why not just deny us all the Referendum and ensure our so-called 'rosy future', if in fact that was the only way we could have one ???

Yes, it's getting tiresome.

I didn't say the UK couldn't find its own way. I didn't say the UK couldn't make a profit.

A profit could be 1p or 100 billion pounds. Which is better?

It's CLEAR the UK is going to lose a lot of money if it decides to leave the EU. You've not argued against this once when I've presented this.

Finding your own way, well tramps find their own way, and millionaires find their own way too. So, "finding your own way" is just rhetoric that doesn't actually mean anything. Every country finds its own way.


Yes, we can go around in circles. What I've done is look at what is happening, what has happened and then put this onto the future to make a prediction. Sometimes predictions are not 100% accurate, but they help to make a good decision. As I've said, the economy will go downhill, the pound will lose value, Germany had a vote in 1990 and they went for the flowers and got the shit.
You've provided me with nothing. You're not basing your argument on history (which repeats itself time and time and time again), you're just painting a picture of what you want to happen, just like Helmut Kohl.

The EU is only strong on paper? I disagree with you.

In the world the major powers are Russia, China, the USA and the EU. Russia is a weak power, China is a developing power, the US is a dwindling power, the EU is a developing power. None of them are perfect, each has their flaws, and the EU has its flaws. In fact one of the flaws is that there are some who would have the EU as a superpower, I believe this is a mistake. Superpowers are known for being arrogant and problematic for others. The EU should try and have power of unity, but also the intelligence of separation, such as the US tried to have but has failed.

The UK leaving the EU will lead to an EU superpower.

The EU isn't a sinking ship. It has problems, it's learning. The USA had 109 years of slavery before a big civil war allowed for the situation where it could be outlawed, then it had segregation for 89 years before an unelected body, the Supreme Court, could outlaw that too. It's had 239 years of gay people being suppressed. It had 100 something years of women not being able to vote. It's seen the great depression which helped lead to WW2. The US suffered a lot in its history and yet still came out as a Superpower, first as one of two, then as one of one. And even as the world superpower it has major, MAJOR problems, electing leaders like Dubya, and a place where Trump can get the nomination for the Republicans.

Nothing is perfect. However the EU is developing, it's taken in many countries only 14 years after they left the Soviet Union or the Warsaw Pact and they were struggling. Yet their economies are growing and they're prospering in the EU and within time they will be much stronger.

Estonia's GDP

Latvia's GDP

Hungary's GDP

All these countries are growing and growing well. Greece is a problem country. Spain and Portugal are issues because they rely heavily on tourism, like Greece, but they're also developing.

The EU is growing stronger.


You say "let's make a wise choice", wise choices are based on knowledge. I have the feeling that most people who will vote won't have enough knowledge, and most people who vote Brexit won't really know what the potential problems will be. Just as the Germans wanted to make a wise choice in 1990, and they made a massive mess of it.