Boehner...debt limit hike as a stand alone bill...

[edthecynic]

Some quick and dirty numbers: Let's say that on Jan 30th of next year, the debt limit is reached and no increase is passed.

The projected FY budget is about 3.55T. The deficit is projected at 1.4T. In other words, about 40% of all spending in this FY is generated by borrowing (increasing the debt). Tax revenues reach their peak in April - January and February see a bump, but the plurality comes in April. So everything else being equal, even in a balanced-budget environment the government would likely borrow in those months.

Stimulus spending, excluding the 40% of the measure that was tax cuts, is minimal in the first part of next year. Total ARRA spending for the year is somewhere in the range of 180B, so call it 15B per month.

Repealing the health care bill will not impact the short-term budgetary situation b/c although some regulations have come into effect, neither the spending nor the revenue generating portion have started.

Cutting 10% from the total budget would reduce the deficit for the year from to about 1.45T, or roughly the monthly deficit by 120B.

So...Let's say we abolish ARRA and cut by 10%. And let's presume that somehow revenues are evenly spread over the course of the year (knowing they are not...)

If we fail to increase the debt ceiling:
Revenues in January would equal 2.2T / 12 = 183 billion dollars.
Expenses in January would equal 3.55T/1.10 = 3.23T/12 = 269B - 15B ARRA savings = 254B

So, we'd 254B-183B short....

Or, said another way, we'd need to increase the debt ceiling by 71B just for the month of January alone - and that doesn't begin to account for the guaranteed payments already arranged. Or we could do as Rand pointed out, and just default.

Looks like we have to cut more spending then.

We can start by bringing the rest of the troops home from Iraq, and make bigger cuts than 10%.

What's wrong with pre-Bush spending levels?

You can't even contemplate returning to spending levels from a mere 10 years ago?

Does anyone have a link to the pre-Bush budgets? I'm actually rather curious. My guess is that SS and Medicare outlays have been the bulk of the increases due to retiring boomers, but I'd like to see the numbers for myself.

Here is a handy little link to a little calculator that will give you the revenue and deficit for any year, add then together and you have the total spending for the year you choose.

Government Taxes and Revenue in United States in 2008 - Federal State Local Charts

 

[Zander]

It's all monopoly money at this point. Why do you think GOLD is going through the roof? We have the FED monetizing debt as fast as it can be created, we have the Obama Administration outspending every other administration in history by a simply staggering sum, and we have the specter of a gigantic new entitlement program looming large in 2014, .......interesting times indeed.

Maybe it is time to stock up on bags of junk silver coins, dried and canned foods, and a bomb shelter!!??

 

[Paulie]

It's all monopoly money at this point. Why do you think GOLD is going through the roof? We have the FED monetizing debt as fast as it can be created, we have the Obama Administration outspending every other administration in history by a simply staggering sum, and we have the specter of a gigantic new entitlement program looming large in 2014, .......interesting times indeed.

Maybe it is time to stock up on bags of junk silver coins, dried and canned foods, and a bomb shelter!!??

None of that sounds very deflationary, Zander.

 

[Zander]

It's all monopoly money at this point. Why do you think GOLD is going through the roof? We have the FED monetizing debt as fast as it can be created, we have the Obama Administration outspending every other administration in history by a simply staggering sum, and we have the specter of a gigantic new entitlement program looming large in 2014, .......interesting times indeed.

Maybe it is time to stock up on bags of junk silver coins, dried and canned foods, and a bomb shelter!!??

None of that sounds very deflationary, Zander.

Buy GOLD!!!! It can only go higher!!! GOLD GOLD GOLD!!!GOLD!!

The only thing keeping the whole scam afloat is the fact that most of the rest of the world is worse off than we are.....

Despite rumors to the contrary, the USD$$ is still considered a safe haven in times of trouble........

Oddly enough, I am bullish on the USD$$ - at least for the short term.

 

[LordBrownTrout]

Print, print, print, print, print, print, print........

 

[Wry Catcher]

Yep this will be interesting.

I will bet that the spending cuts will not be in seperate bills though.

Why don't you carp at every single move the GOP makes? Why don't you gripe that they didnt cut enough, didnt cut the right things, didnt fix everything immediately?
You have close to zero credibility here because everything the GOP does is flawed while everythign the Dems do is fine or explainable by expedient.

I actually did lol reading this from the most partisan liar on the right. Rabbi, has spent two years carping at every single move the White House and the Congress made and now personally attacks someone for making an observation on what the former Grand olde party might do.
Rabbi, you define hypocrisy and you are the epitomy of what's very wrong with politics today.

 

[SFC Ollie]

So for all of you who think we have to raise the debt limit, that we have to keep living beyond our means:

When do we stop raising the limit?

How far into debt do we go?

Which language should I advise my grandchildren to learn?

 

[LordBrownTrout]

So for all of you who think we have to raise the debt limit, that we have to keep living beyond our means:

When do we stop raising the limit?

How far into debt do we go?

Which language should I advise my grandchildren to learn?

Some sort of spanish/chinese hybrid mix will probably suffice.

 

[uscitizen]

It's all monopoly money at this point. Why do you think GOLD is going through the roof? We have the FED monetizing debt as fast as it can be created, we have the Obama Administration outspending every other administration in history by a simply staggering sum, and we have the specter of a gigantic new entitlement program looming large in 2014, .......interesting times indeed.

Maybe it is time to stock up on bags of junk silver coins, dried and canned foods, and a bomb shelter!!??

None of that sounds very deflationary, Zander.

Buy GOLD!!!! It can only go higher!!! GOLD GOLD GOLD!!!GOLD!!

The only thing keeping the whole scam afloat is the fact that most of the rest of the world is worse off than we are.....

Despite rumors to the contrary, the USD$$ is still considered a safe haven in times of trouble........

Oddly enough, I am bullish on the USD$$ - at least for the short term.

Wrong, most of the rest of the world is not wose off than they were before the recession began. And it also depends on how you define most of the rest of the world? number of people? Countries?

 

[Wry Catcher]

So for all of you who think we have to raise the debt limit, that we have to keep living beyond our means:

When do we stop raising the limit?

How far into debt do we go?

Which language should I advise my grandchildren to learn?

Well, if any Army Sargeant is anything like a Navy Chief, hopefully whatever language they learn won't have every third word to be "Fuck".

 

[SFC Ollie]

So for all of you who think we have to raise the debt limit, that we have to keep living beyond our means:

When do we stop raising the limit?

How far into debt do we go?

Which language should I advise my grandchildren to learn?

Well, if any Army Sargeant is anything like a Navy Chief, hopefully whatever language they learn won't have every third word to be "Fuck".

Truth is it was in the late 70's that we were informed that we were no longer permitted to cuss out the troops. Before that it was: Fuck the fucking lazy assed fuckers.

And spell my first name right. It's Sergeant. Sarge is a character in a comic book and I don't even pretend to be funny. (had to slip that in there, it's been so long since I could use that line)

 

[The Rabbi]

Yep this will be interesting.

I will bet that the spending cuts will not be in seperate bills though.

Why don't you carp at every single move the GOP makes? Why don't you gripe that they didnt cut enough, didnt cut the right things, didnt fix everything immediately?
You have close to zero credibility here because everything the GOP does is flawed while everythign the Dems do is fine or explainable by expedient.

I actually did lol reading this from the most partisan liar on the right. Rabbi, has spent two years carping at every single move the White House and the Congress made and now personally attacks someone for making an observation on what the former Grand olde party might do.
Rabbi, you define hypocrisy and you are the epitomy of what's very wrong with politics today.

Boehner shows promise of accomplishing what Pelosi couldn't get done. And the lefties here want to complain.
You've already been unmasked as a liar and incapable of reasoned argument. Maybe you could go get a job or something to occupy your time.

 

[Trajan]

Host: Will you vote to raise the debt ceiling?
Rand Paul: No, I'll vote against that
Host: Wouldn't failing to raise the limit cause us to default on our debt?
Rand Paul: Well, if it had enough votes. But I don't think we can stop it.

I saw that last night.

GOP: We don't give a fuck about anything but grandstanding so we look good. Fuck the US.

Most amazing was that the host didn't call him out on it. She just moved on to the next question as if defaulting was just another option on the table. Pathetic. He should have been pinned to the wall until he explained that answer.

But let's not mistake grandstanding for governing: he's already clamoring for earmarks after claiming he'd be against them.

hello...Paul is a SENATOR.......Boehner is in the HOUSE....dude.

 

[Sallow]

You continue to demonstrate a detachment from facts and an inability to learn.
Paygo is a congressional rule. Bush was not in Congress.
McCain apologized repeatedly for GOP mistakes on the trail.
The GOP's problem was acting like Democrats instead of Republicans. Now that Republicans wnat to act like Republicans you criticize them.

The president writes the budget and sets the agenda. The Republican..well conservative problem has been their problem for a very long time. It's the inate desire to consolidate power and wealth in to a small part of the population. It's pretty universal and crosses cultures.

If its the Republicans are rich how come its the Democrats in control of California. Lots of rich people in California, like Nancy Pelosi and Diane Fienstien, rich democrat industry like agriculture and oil, Al Gore's family even owns an oil company.

The democrats are rich corporations and politicians but they are not, how is that. Explain yourself.

Not sure what you are getting at here? That because someone is a Democrat it precludes them from being rich? And I am not sure what you are getting at with California. It's a huge state with multiple issues. One of them being..direct democracy.

 

[Trajan]

Yep this will be interesting.

I will bet that the spending cuts will not be in seperate bills though.

Why don't you carp at every single move the GOP makes? Why don't you gripe that they didnt cut enough, didnt cut the right things, didnt fix everything immediately?
You have close to zero credibility here because everything the GOP does is flawed while everythign the Dems do is fine or explainable by expedient.

I actually did lol reading this from the most partisan liar on the right. Rabbi, has spent two years carping at every single move the White House and the Congress made and now personally attacks someone for making an observation on what the former Grand olde party might do.
Rabbi, you define hypocrisy and you are the epitomy of what's very wrong with politics today.

wow, did you like, go back in time? Have an Atavacron hidden in your tent tended by Mr. Atoz?

you've been here 14 months........

 

[NYcarbineer]

I'm going to need to see the numbers.

Some quick and dirty numbers: Let's say that on Jan 30th of next year, the debt limit is reached and no increase is passed.

The projected FY budget is about 3.55T. The deficit is projected at 1.4T. In other words, about 40% of all spending in this FY is generated by borrowing (increasing the debt). Tax revenues reach their peak in April - January and February see a bump, but the plurality comes in April. So everything else being equal, even in a balanced-budget environment the government would likely borrow in those months.

Stimulus spending, excluding the 40% of the measure that was tax cuts, is minimal in the first part of next year. Total ARRA spending for the year is somewhere in the range of 180B, so call it 15B per month.

Repealing the health care bill will not impact the short-term budgetary situation b/c although some regulations have come into effect, neither the spending nor the revenue generating portion have started.

Cutting 10% from the total budget would reduce the deficit for the year from to about 1.45T, or roughly the monthly deficit by 120B.

So...Let's say we abolish ARRA and cut by 10%. And let's presume that somehow revenues are evenly spread over the course of the year (knowing they are not...)

If we fail to increase the debt ceiling:
Revenues in January would equal 2.2T / 12 = 183 billion dollars.
Expenses in January would equal 3.55T/1.10 = 3.23T/12 = 269B - 15B ARRA savings = 254B

So, we'd 254B-183B short....

Or, said another way, we'd need to increase the debt ceiling by 71B just for the month of January alone - and that doesn't begin to account for the guaranteed payments already arranged. Or we could do as Rand pointed out, and just default.

So you are saying we have no choice but to continue to go deeper into debt each day. I don't buy it. there has to be a way to stop it. How long can any country, state, city, or individual continue to go deeper into debt? Each month I continue to pay down my debt. Eventually if I live long enough I will owe no one anything, other than taxes of course......

The way to stop it is put PAYGO back in place, stick to it, to stop adding to the deficit, and let growth bring down the deficit already in place.

 

[Trajan]

The way to stop it is put PAYGO back in place, stick to it, to stop adding to the deficit, and let growth bring down the deficit already in place.

I agree. But paygo is really juts a word, no ones ever really followed through that I can remember. AMT excursions etc. they have all played the game.And they will play it again shortly, will Boehner bring up a bill to by pass paygo ala the AMT again?

They made a has of it from the git go, by not indexing it, so they should just kill it dead.

As far as the rest, we'll see, if he stands by his words and forces a deb.t ceiling vote thats step one, lets say it passes. Then what?

 

[The Rabbi]

The way to stop it is put PAYGO back in place, stick to it, to stop adding to the deficit, and let growth bring down the deficit already in place.

I agree. But paygo is really juts a word, no ones ever really followed through that I can remember. AMT excursions etc. they have all played the game.And they will play it again shortly, will Boehner bring up a bill to by pass paygo ala the AMT again?

They made a has of it from the git go, by not indexing it, so they should just kill it dead.

As far as the rest, we'll see, if he stands by his words and forces a deb.t ceiling vote thats step one, lets say it passes. Then what?

The issue is that something like cuts in cap gains taxes have to "paid for" by paygo. Of course they will generate more revenue but static scoring doesn't allow for that.

 

[NYcarbineer]

The way to stop it is put PAYGO back in place, stick to it, to stop adding to the deficit, and let growth bring down the deficit already in place.

I agree. But paygo is really juts a word, no ones ever really followed through that I can remember. AMT excursions etc. they have all played the game.And they will play it again shortly, will Boehner bring up a bill to by pass paygo ala the AMT again?

They made a has of it from the git go, by not indexing it, so they should just kill it dead.

As far as the rest, we'll see, if he stands by his words and forces a deb.t ceiling vote thats step one, lets say it passes. Then what?

The issue is that something like cuts in cap gains taxes have to "paid for" by paygo. Of course they will generate more revenue but static scoring doesn't allow for that.

Except no one can actually demonstrate that as a cause and effect fact. It's a myth, in fact.

 

[The Rabbi]

I agree. But paygo is really juts a word, no ones ever really followed through that I can remember. AMT excursions etc. they have all played the game.And they will play it again shortly, will Boehner bring up a bill to by pass paygo ala the AMT again?

They made a has of it from the git go, by not indexing it, so they should just kill it dead.

As far as the rest, we'll see, if he stands by his words and forces a deb.t ceiling vote thats step one, lets say it passes. Then what?

The issue is that something like cuts in cap gains taxes have to "paid for" by paygo. Of course they will generate more revenue but static scoring doesn't allow for that.

Except no one can actually demonstrate that as a cause and effect fact. It's a myth, in fact.

It's actually proven. It is one of the most proven phenomena in economics and taxation issues. Obama admitted it was true before the election.
Or do you think changing tax rates has no effect on human behavior?