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Our Research
In June, EIPCa president Linda Paine sent a letter to the California Secretary of State’s office alleging that the group found more than 1.8 million ineligible voting registrants in California.
The EIPCa determined the total number of eligible citizens per country based on census estimates listed on the Secretary of State’s website as of October 19, 2020. In order to determine the total number of ineligible registered voters, the EIPCa "compared the total number of voter registrations (Active plus Inactive) to the number of eligible citizens as listed on the Secretary of State website."
By this metric the EIPCa determined that 23 of 58 counties in California have more registered voters than citizens eligible to vote, with a total of 1,834,789 ineligible registered voters statewide. The California Globe article flagged San Diego, Sacramento, Los Angeles, Orange, and Alpine counties as having "an astoundingly high number of ineligible registrants."
All of the experts we spoke to said that this allegation by the EIPCa is deceptive and relies on misguided and flawed data analysis.
Registrar of Voters for Orange County Neal Kelley said that the data used by the EIPCa was out of date, even at the time that the EIPCa wrote the letter to the Secretary of State.
"We can tell by some of the data they're presenting that it looks like their data was about three months old," Kelley said. "It does not include same day voter registration, it doesn't include the ebb and flow of voter databases where you have minute-by-minute updates to it."
According to the EIPCa’s letter, they obtained their data on February 9, 2021. But voter registration data is constantly being updated by people at the county and state levels, according to Kelley and other registrars we spoke to across the state.
According to county voter participation statistics compiled by the Secretary of State, there were 25,090,517 Californias who were eligible to vote in the 2020 Presidential election. Of that group, there were 22,047,448 individuals registered to vote — just
under 88% of folks who are eligible to vote.