Doesn’t bode well for Trump. Losing Texas would mean automatic defeat for Trump.
The poll showed Biden with the support of 48 percent of likely voters, compared with 45 percent for Trump. The results represent a shift from the same poll in September, when Trump led by 2 percentage points. One difference from September is that Biden has expanded his lead among Hispanic voters from 30 percentage points to 48.
Biden’s not going to win Texas, of course.
But it’s a troubling indicator for Trump concerning the toss-up states – OH, NC, GA – and the states leaning Biden, AZ and FL.
With just over a week left to the end of voting, the poll numbers should have tightened by now if Trump had a realistic chance at winning reelection – they’re not; and Trump certainly shouldn’t be polling behind Biden in TX at this point, either.
For Christ’s sake
Trump beat Hillary by 9 percent in 2016
Now, he is losing to Biden in the polls
Shouldnt even be close at this point
at this point, Trump was losing biggly to Hillary
Actually he was only behind 2.6 percent nationwide
He won Texas by 9 percent
RealClearPolitics - RCP National Average (2020 vs. 2016)
www.realclearpolitics.com
Robert Cahaly, senior strategist for the Trafalgar Group, made a name for himself in 2016 by being the only pollster to correctly show Donald Trump with a lead in Michigan and Pennsylvania — two key states he carried — heading into Election Day. (He did not poll Wisconsin, another surprising win for Trump.) Cahaly also showed Trump ahead in North Carolina and Florida, both of which he won, securing his improbable 304-227 Electoral College victory over Hillary Clinton.
Cahaly managed to pick up support for Trump that all other pollsters missed by employing a unique method that sought to measure support from voters who’d been “inactive” in recent election cycles, as well as adding a question to his surveys designed to isolate the effect of social desirability bias among Trump voters – the concept that people won’t tell pollsters their true intentions for fear of being stigmatized or being politically incorrect.
www.thetrafalgargroup.org
Trafalgar is biased conservative
They even add points for Trump because they claim that those polled hide their true feelings.
2016 was a fluke for Trafalgar
they were the only pollster that got it right in 2016
The Trafalgar Group delivers its polling questionnaires utilizing a mix of six different methods:
- Live callers
- Integrated voice response
- Text messages
- Emails
- Two other proprietary digital methods they don’t share publicly.
The company utilizes short questionnaires of nine questions or less based on their perceptions about attenuated attention spans and the need to “accommodate modern busy lifestyles.” According to Cahaly, the firm’s polls last one to two minutes and are designed to quickly get opinions from those who would not typically participate in political polls.
The firm has also pioneered methods to deal with what they describe as “Social Desirability Bias” in order to get at what a poll participant’s true feelings are in situations where they believe some individuals in a poll are not likely to reveal their actual preferences. In their view, this included the 2016 Presidential election and the 2018 Florida gubernatorial election.