Toro
Diamond Member
They were right in 2012, 2014 and 2018.
They were also right in France when you were here saying the polls were all wrong for Marie le Pen. You were making the exact same argument. And you were completely wrong.
Biden Lead Down To 2% Biden 49%-Trump 47% Zogby/EMI Poll Taken After President Checks Into Walter Reed
- Thread starter Lucy Hamilton
- Start date
They were right in 2012, 2014 and 2018.
They were also right in France when you were here saying the polls were all wrong for Marie le Pen. You were making the exact same argument. And you were completely wrong.
Lucy Hamilton
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Why don't you go and ask your Leftist friends WHY they keep posting Poll threads EVERY DAY, even one's that have under 700 sampled and are Registered Voters and NOT Likely Voters.
So what does Nate Silver rely on? Simulations, obviously he's been drinking too much already, now FiveThirtyEight are posting how the Democrats are going to win The Senate based on FORTY THOUSAND COMPUTER SIMULATIONS!
I think it is irrelevant To compare to 2016... this is 2020. Trump is no longer an “outsider”, he has a record to defend. And most of all, Biden is not Clinton.
Toro
Diamond Member
Here's what people like Lucy who don't understand math and statistics don't comprehend.
Polls are estimates of the future. They are probabilities of what is expected to happen. They are not certainties. Nobody knows the future. But we can estimate the future, knowing that we will generally be right but sometimes be wrong.
Currently, 538.com - which is a poll aggregator that applies statistical analysis to all polls - has Biden at an 80% chance of winning the election, or 4 in 5 chance of winning. That is the same odds as a 6-point favorite in the NFL.
If you do the math, a 6-point favorite in the NFL wins roughly 80% of the time. But they don't win 100% of the time.
Does that mean the Vegas odds-makers are "always wrong" as so many Trump worshipper seem to believe about polls?
No, of course not.
But the Vegas odds makers are usually right.
That is math.
Just like polls.
Polls are estimates of the future. They are probabilities of what is expected to happen. They are not certainties. Nobody knows the future. But we can estimate the future, knowing that we will generally be right but sometimes be wrong.
Currently, 538.com - which is a poll aggregator that applies statistical analysis to all polls - has Biden at an 80% chance of winning the election, or 4 in 5 chance of winning. That is the same odds as a 6-point favorite in the NFL.
If you do the math, a 6-point favorite in the NFL wins roughly 80% of the time. But they don't win 100% of the time.
Does that mean the Vegas odds-makers are "always wrong" as so many Trump worshipper seem to believe about polls?
No, of course not.
But the Vegas odds makers are usually right.
That is math.
Just like polls.
Lucy Hamilton
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Did I say Le Pen would win? I can't remember, but I can remember in 2016 I correctly predicted that Trump would win Pennsylvania, Michigan and either Wisconsin or Minnesota, that he would win 3 of the 4 and he did.
Lucy Hamilton
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Joe Biden has a 47 YEAR record to defend and all he can show was he was Obama's VP and for the other 39 YEARS all he has to show is that he co-wrote a Crime Bill that has had adverse effects on Generations of young Black men.
Toro
Diamond Member
You can't post a poll and proclaim that Trump is catching Biden then dismiss dozens of other polls that say otherwise.
That's just silly.
That's just silly.
Lucy Hamilton
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"Currently, 538.com - which is a poll aggregator that applies statistical analysis to all polls - has Biden at an 80% chance of winning the election, or 4 in 5 chance of winning."
Yes and in 2016 FiveThirtyEight had Hillary at 71.4% winning and she didn't because she LOST the Electoral College and AGAIN they got that WRONG because they had her winning that in a Landslide also.
Lucy Hamilton
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You are posting about FiveThirtyEight giving Biden an 80% chance of winning when they gave Hillary a 71.4% chance of winning.
Toro
Diamond Member
Trump is in trouble because college-educated women are disgusted by him.
In special election after special election since 2016, and in the 2018 election, college-educated women came out in huge numbers to vote against the Republicans.
That's why they are going to get crushed next month.
www.politico.com
www.politico.com
www.politico.com
Trump's online support is like a cult.
In special election after special election since 2016, and in the 2018 election, college-educated women came out in huge numbers to vote against the Republicans.
That's why they are going to get crushed next month.
But their distaste might be a telling indicator of why Trump is floundering in polls across the country. It isn’t necessarily about a policy or a broken promise, it’s about Trump as a person. Trump’s bare-knuckled personality—which was on full display at the Tuesday debate—has been his calling card. He has said things that no one else dares, and his base loves him for it. But for this group of former supporters, Trump’s personality has become his biggest liability. ...
The first person who told me confidently that Trump would win the 2016 election was the bartender at a steakhouse and golf course on the outskirts of Lincoln where I picked up waitressing shifts in between reporting jobs.
It was late in 2015, and I scoffed when Scott Hayes said “Donald Trump will be our next president” one night as he snuck me pours of wine and quizzed me on the tannins I detected. But Hayes, 60, a native Nebraskan who has worked up and down the East Coast, knows the pulse of a community is best read by those who see its businessmen, golfers and football fans when their inhibitions are diluted by alcohol. At the time, that was the exact crowd Hayes said was excited by Trump’s pitches for a strong economy and small business growth. Part of that was a curiosity about whether an “anti-establishment” candidate could disrupt the political system in a positive way. “They said, ‘Let’s just vote for him and see how crazy it can be.’” Hayes said. ...
“The luster has worn off. People have seen it, and it’s not that pretty,” he said. “I think there’s some Trump supporters who in secret will go ‘Yeah I can’t.’ Once they get in that voting booth they’ll realize ‘Yeah, not him.’”
He offered me another prediction: “Biden all the way.”
Fed Up in Flyover Country
Donald Trump has alienated many of his former supporters in the heartland. It’s not his policies. It’s him.
www.politico.com
One week earlier, the campaign had received the results of an internal poll that was shocking in the best way possible; it showed Slotkin at her highest marks to date in Michigan’s 8th Congressional District. It’s the sort of place Republicans figured to rule forever, the sort of place Trump won comfortably (by 7 points, to be exact) and the sort of place where a suburban realignment to the left could ensure not only a Democratic grip on the hard-won House seats of 2018 but a Joe Biden blowout across the battleground map of 2020. ...
In interviews with some two dozen Brighton residents throughout the day, it was striking just how many identified themselves as lifelong conservatives who now consider themselves moderates—entirely because of Trump.
“I wouldn’t vote for him if he was the last person left on earth. And in truth, I may never vote Republican again,” said Andrea Campbell, a 57-year-old retired attorney. “They just don’t care about anyone that’s not in their base—rich white men. That’s Trump. He only represents his people. And he represents hate, really. That’s what he represents: hate and division.”
Has Elissa Slotkin Detected Early Hints of a Biden Blowout?
Signs from a key Michigan district indicate that the president’s losses among white women are boosting Democrats up and down the ticket.
www.politico.com
A confluence of forces has made Ohio competitive again in the eyes of Democrats. The economy and health care amid the pandemic are bad. Trump is bleeding white working-class and suburban voters in polls. ...
“The suburbs are collapsing for Trump,” Ryan said. “Biden is doing better with African American voters, and he’s winning back the white working class. That’s why he’s up by 5 in the Fox poll.” ...
To Ryan’s point, Biden is doing better than Clinton by 8 percentage points among white voters with no college degree in the Fox polls. Biden and Democrats say that Black voters, some of whom stayed home in large numbers in 2016, are more enthusiastic about voting against Trump this time.
Biden puts Ohio in play
The once-perennial bellwether state looked out of reach for Democrats this year. But buoyed by polls and GOP divisions, Biden is making a run at it.
www.politico.com
Trump's online support is like a cult.
Toro
Diamond Member
You posted one poll that reinforces your view.
538 analyzes hundreds of polls that says otherwise.
You are strongly exhibiting confirmation bias.
Lucy Hamilton
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"538 analyzes hundreds of polls that says otherwise."
Again I repeat, in 2016 538 did the same thing and all those polls said Hillary was going to win and that was EVERY poll said Hillary would win BOTH the Popular Vote AND the Electoral College and they were wrong. If they would have been correct then Hillary would be in The White House and she is not and she was not.
I am exhibiting no bias, I am going totally on the track record from 2016.
Toro
Diamond Member
You just have to look at the numbers in the Midwest to understand what happened in 2016.
In IA OH and WI, the decline in votes for the Democrats in 2016 compared to 2012 outstripped the increase in Republican and 3rd-party votes. In exit polls, a majority of Trump voters said they were voting against Clinton, not voting for Trump. That means the country was not voting for Trump. They were voting against Clinton. Clinton is not on the ballot in 2020.
The black vote was down 7% in 2016 compared to 2012. It was the only cohort that saw a decline. That's because Hillary was seen as a proxy for her husband, who increased prison sentencing when he was President. The decline in black votes was more than Trump's margin of victory in MI an PA. In 2018, blacks came out to vote in record numbers. They are coming out this year.
Trump is going to get crushed.
In IA OH and WI, the decline in votes for the Democrats in 2016 compared to 2012 outstripped the increase in Republican and 3rd-party votes. In exit polls, a majority of Trump voters said they were voting against Clinton, not voting for Trump. That means the country was not voting for Trump. They were voting against Clinton. Clinton is not on the ballot in 2020.
The black vote was down 7% in 2016 compared to 2012. It was the only cohort that saw a decline. That's because Hillary was seen as a proxy for her husband, who increased prison sentencing when he was President. The decline in black votes was more than Trump's margin of victory in MI an PA. In 2018, blacks came out to vote in record numbers. They are coming out this year.
Trump is going to get crushed.
Hidin’ Biden is a tired old man hiding in his basement.The 2016 Election Popular Vote was Hillary 48.6% Trump 46.1%
This Zogby Poll just released is the second poll that is showing Joe Biden's lead below 3%, I posted the other poll in a thread the other night that was the IBD/TIPP Poll that has Joe Biden on 48.6% and The Donald on 45.9%
The significance of this poll is that it was taken on Friday night AFTER The Donald was taken to Walter Reed Hospital, like the other poll I posted the other night it also obviously was taken AFTER the Debate.
View attachment 396633
View attachment 396635
Okay so let's look into the poll some more:
View attachment 396636
^^^^ My initial thoughts about the above numbers, a few striking things appear:
I. The Donald has at LEAST 34% of Hispanics saying they are going to vote for him. II. The Donald has at LEAST 11% of Blacks saying they are going to vote for him and both these numbers are actually pretty good with relation to the Electoral College Vote. Since the 2016 Election The Donald has increased his support with Hispanics and his vote with Blacks has remained largely the same.
As of now The Donald is winning 51%-46% with Roman Catholics and 68%-32% with Evangelicals and 54%-40% with parents with children under the age of 17 living at home, so The Donald has a 14% lead in this poll with YOUNG FAMILIES.
To me the below is the most INTERESTING part of the poll:
View attachment 396638
Joe Biden and The Donald are both at 44% with Independents. In my opinion The Donald needs NOT to play so much to his Base now, because they will vote him already, he needs to play towards that 12% of Undecided Independents, he doesn't NEED all 12%, he needs approx 5% of them.
View attachment 396641
The above two Dr. Jo Jorgensen and Howie Hawkins will get a percentage of the vote, just like what happened in 2016 with Gary Johnson and Jill Stein and again with this counted in Joe Biden's lead is still 2% against The Donald, something very like what happened with Hillary vs The Donald.
Biden Leads Trump 49%-47%; New John Zogby Strategies/EMI Research Solutions Poll Taken After President Checks Into Walter Reed - John Zogby Strategies
In a new poll of 1006 likely voters nationwide, former Vice-President Joe Biden holds on to a two-point lead over President Donald Trump, 49% to 47% with 4% not sure. The random sample online poll was taken on Friday beginning after 7 PM and has an overall margin-of-sampling error of +/-3.2...johnzogbystrategies.com
President Trump is a warrior, willing to risk getting WuFlu, then kicks its ass, and on with Making America Great Again. Nothing can stop this man. Biden is DONE.
Toro
Diamond Member
FFS, Biden is within the margin of error in Texas. In Texas!
It's for the same reason. Trump's support in the suburbs of Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, etc., is collapsing.
He isn't going to win Texas. But the fact that he's that close tells you how much trouble Trump is in.
It's for the same reason. Trump's support in the suburbs of Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, etc., is collapsing.
He isn't going to win Texas. But the fact that he's that close tells you how much trouble Trump is in.
I lived in Texas for 11 years. Every election was allegedly the election that was going to turn Texas blue...
Lucy Hamilton
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I am going with the Track Record of the State of Ohio, the Track Record of how Ohio has voted in ALL Presidential Elections - since 1896 Ohio has ONLY got it wrong TWICE - then Ohio is more accurate than ANY Polling:
And as of NOW and using your favourite FiveThirtyEight Joe Biden's lead is NOT EXISTENT and Ohio is there for The Donald to win like he did in 2016:
Politics News | Breaking Political News, Video & Analysis-ABC News
ABC News is your trusted source on political news stories and videos. Get the latest coverage and analysis on everything from the Trump presidency, Senate, House and Supreme Court.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com
conserveguy877
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With Trump battling the China Virus himself. It can prove who's the strongest candidate. Because we all know Sleepy Joe can't handle 4 debates.
airplanemechanic
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This proves I was right all along!! Trump's approval rating would go up as soon as he stopped tweeting for a while.
Mac1958
Diamond Member
The baseball cap of my Broker Dealer. As 20+-year CFP/Investment Advisor, I'm a far better capitalist than you could ever claim to be.
Any other simplistic, ignorant questions, Trumpster?
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