Even though the US economy is booming, US oil output remains down by about 2 million barrels per day from the record last year.
The slow recovery by frackers reflects the role of Wall Street. Investors are demanding that US shale companies finally exercise discipline after a decade of blowing through staggering sums of money. Their share prices would be penalized if they suddenly chased higher prices.
"Shale can't come to the rescue and you need OPEC to prevent runaway prices," said Croft, the RBC strategist. "In 2015, people wrote OPEC's obituary because of shale. But now OPEC is in the driver's seat."
Americans despise high gasoline prices. And fairly or not, they tend to pin the blame on whomever is in the White House.
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