Are You Optimistic That We Near a Coming Technological Utopia?

[JimBowie1958]

We are seeing a number of technologies coming along that seem to suggest that by 2050 we will have all the energy we will need as small communities or individual households, will be able to manufacture via 3D printing and nano-manufacturing anything we want or need, and we will have technology enhanced life, vigor and indefinite life spans.

How do you feel about where we will be in the year 2100 AD?

 

[william the wie]

I find three things three things wrong with your thesis:

No matter the absolute amount of money or how narrow the income differential the lower 1/3 of society feels put upon.

Productivity increases are deflationary by definition so the free spending will manage to screw themselves anyway.

Compared to 1915, much less 1900, we are already in a technological utopia and people ain't happy with it.

 

[Luddly Neddite]

Unless one lives in La La Land, there's a lot more than three things wrong with it.

 

[Moonglow]

We are seeing a number of technologies coming along that seem to suggest that by 2050 we will have all the energy we will need as small communities or individual households, will be able to manufacture via 3D printing and nano-manufacturing anything we want or need, and we will have technology enhanced life, vigor and indefinite life spans.

How do you feel about where we will be in the year 2100 AD?

By 2050, I'll be needing a personal power source for myself...

 

[Moonglow]

I find three things three things wrong with your thesis:

No matter the absolute amount of money or how narrow the income differential the lower 1/3 of society feels put upon.

Productivity increases are deflationary by definition so the free spending will manage to screw themselves anyway.

Compared to 1915, much less 1900, we are already in a technological utopia and people ain't happy with it.

I love it....

 

[Treeshepherd]

I envision a divergence of the human species.

One fork will branch off and become transhuman, merging with bio-technology. They will become a distinct species. To some, the tremendous utilitarian and medical advantages of transhumanism will be regarded as part and parcel to a new utopia. To others, it will be regarded as a Faustian bargain.

The other branch will remain human and continue to attempt to exist in a state of human ecology within the context of a maturing digital/bio-gen world.

 

[Moonglow]

I envision a divergence of the human species.

One fork will branch off and become transhuman, merging with bio-technology. They will become a distinct species. To some, the tremendous utilitarian and medical advantages of transhumanism will be regarded as part and parcel to a new utopia. To others, it will be regarded as a Faustian bargain.

The other branch will remain human and continue to attempt to exist in a state of human ecology within the context of a maturing digital/bio-gen world.

It will also depend on who has the dough....

 

[Treeshepherd]

It will also depend on who has the dough....

That seems true. The bottom billion still don't have plumbing.

But, productivity could reach the point where self-maintaining robots take care of most of the work and energy is in great surplus. In such a world, people would likely be guaranteed base allowances of resources. Money would become irrelevant.

The only people who would need to work would be the people who opt out of the system.

 

[JimBowie1958]

No matter the absolute amount of money or how narrow the income differential the lower 1/3 of society feels put upon.

Productivity increases are deflationary by definition so the free spending will manage to screw themselves anyway.

Compared to 1915, much less 1900, we are already in a technological utopia and people ain't happy with it.

Hmmm, by 'utopia' I mean a society where there is no compelling reason to work or 'labor by the sweat of one's brow', we suffer from very few diseases, see little death or poverty any more and we have in effect a return to Eden of Biblical fame.

Society can, as you observe in your third point, have a utopian environment according to many and a large minority still not 'feel it'. But in this final stage of human social evolution, there wont be any basis for it at all other than the need to incarcerate violent criminals.

As to the free spending, yes, this is true as one cannot manufacture discipline, but also there wont need to be any monetary discipline. People will not need money, much like the subsistence farmers of the 18th century did not. They occasionally sold some things for some ' pocket cash' or to buy 'store bought clothing' and it will largely return to that kind of thing plus barter for more complex self-made items like cars and houses. You and your friends can make for yourselves anything you need, why the need for cash?

 

[JimBowie1958]

I envision a divergence of the human species.

One fork will branch off and become transhuman, merging with bio-technology. They will become a distinct species. To some, the tremendous utilitarian and medical advantages of transhumanism will be regarded as part and parcel to a new utopia. To others, it will be regarded as a Faustian bargain.

The other branch will remain human and continue to attempt to exist in a state of human ecology within the context of a maturing digital/bio-gen world.

The willingness to incorporate more machinery into ones body is the critical factor, and it will be on a gray scale of variation. I think that there will be the opposite of what you anticipate, a Bell Curve in the middle of those willing to engage only the minimal cyborgery they feel required to do what they want to be able to do, and it will be made and installed in their own homes eventually.
I think that minority who obstinately refuse will be small and vanishing. Attaching these devices will be no more complex or invasive than strapping on a watch. For example, I think we will have small nanites that are injected into the cornea that will restructure the cornea for optimal sight. You wont see them or feel them, but it will perfect vision and be ubiquitous. Then there is the genetic engineering approach that might eventually use modified and mechanically enhanced bacteria in place of nanites.

If you cant see the machinery, and you can put it on and take it off as you please, is the person still a cyborg?

We already have cyborgs in our world in the form of people with pace makers and insulin pumps. No one is horrified by that because we don't think of it in that way due to advertising and the specificity of the tech.

But the power structure will remain the same as the elites divert the masses into virtual reality games and worlds that keep the masses occupied and with goals to achieve they find 'fun and exciting' as reality will be rather boring. The 21st century version of bread and circuses 24/7.

It will also depend on who has the dough....

That seems true. The bottom billion still don't have plumbing.

But, productivity could reach the point where self-maintaining robots take care of most of the work and energy is in great surplus. In such a world, people would likely be guaranteed base allowances of resources. Money would become irrelevant.

The only people who would need to work would be the people who opt out of the system.

I agree that money will become irrelevant. Real estate and commodities will be the cash of the future, and the 18th century skills updated for modern economics and tech will be the most sought after. Billy fixes Ted's self-assembled car because he is particularly good with mechanics while Ted shares with him some his best home brew in payment for the labor. To some degree barter already takes place.

I think this can focus much of human activity around churches and synagogues as the IRS will not be able to tax bartered labor that is donated to the church and received from the church. The IRS will see a greatly diminishing role in society by 2050 and will not have much of a function left to it by 2100 methinks.

 

[Delta4Embassy]

We are seeing a number of technologies coming along that seem to suggest that by 2050 we will have all the energy we will need as small communities or individual households, will be able to manufacture via 3D printing and nano-manufacturing anything we want or need, and we will have technology enhanced life, vigor and indefinite life spans.

How do you feel about where we will be in the year 2100 AD?

- none of the above because until forced to do so things never change.

Until we run out of something, we wont replace what already works as with oil. Already have replacement limbs which are better than the original but you don't see anyone replacing what they already have with them.

Technological advances are just proof of concept items. Only when they're needed en masse' do they work their way into everyday life.

 

[JimBowie1958]

We are seeing a number of technologies coming along that seem to suggest that by 2050 we will have all the energy we will need as small communities or individual households, will be able to manufacture via 3D printing and nano-manufacturing anything we want or need, and we will have technology enhanced life, vigor and indefinite life spans.

How do you feel about where we will be in the year 2100 AD?

- none of the above because until forced to do so things never change.

Until we run out of something, we wont replace what already works as with oil. Already have replacement limbs which are better than the original but you don't see anyone replacing what they already have with them.

Technological advances are just proof of concept items. Only when they're needed en masse' do they work their way into everyday life.

Well in this case what we will be running out of is jobs and that will spur people to get assets that they can use to lower their cost of living. The macro level supply and demand is only half the economy. The economy of the 'small brigades' of people who will seek to provide for their communities needs has a great amount of economic momentum also.

 

[SharpArrowhead]

If we can get to a point where tech can do most jobs and people are given a basic income to pursue their passions, we could harness everybody's strengths and progress even more. But that's just my ideal scenario.

 

[Treeshepherd]

Save the humans!

- none of the above because until forced to do so things never change.

We had cellular technology for at least a couple decades before cell phones became ubiquitous. But, in a sense, people were moving towards the iPhone for 30 years. It started with the Motorola pager, and Palm Pilots. I got a pager when my wife was pregnant. I'd get a text and get all excited, but then see that she just wanted me to pick up some eggs or something frivolous. Nokia phones became very popular for texting in Europe, but most Americans just had them for emergencies. Serious techies had Blackberries. Eventually we got to the point where Apple made the iPhone ultra-trendy with people lining up around the block to get one.

The smart phone has become the Swiss Army knife of modern life. It has a ways to go before it becomes obsolete. But, the integrated bio-chip will replace the smart phone in the not too distant future. Then, people will be connected like the Borg. It's likely that if I have grandchildren, their genes will either be selected or manipulated. They may grow up to experience life mostly thru the future internalized version of the Oculus virtual reality device.

It's noteworthy that the Pope's 'global warming' encyclical only mentioned warming and climate change 9 and 12 times respectively (out of 40,000+ total words). Most of the teaching was about spiritual, economic and technological sociological issues. "Life gradually becomes a surrender to situations conditioned by technology", he said. "It has become countercultural", Francis continued, "to choose a lifestyle whose goals are even partly independent of technology." The encyclical often reads like a sad swan song of the human species, and in that sense it resonates with me.

 

[JimBowie1958]

If we can get to a point where tech can do most jobs and people are given a basic income to pursue their passions, we could harness everybody's strengths and progress even more. But that's just my ideal scenario.

One area scarcely scratched much less harnessed is the incalculable power of gamers solving problems via a game format. There have been some problems that researchers and mathematicians have been unable to solve for decades, but once put into a game format, gamers solved the problem in merely days.

We also have a lot of people that are looking for things to do with their lives and volunteer to do things for free. Why is that force pool being ignored in most cases? How much better could we put these two things to good use? I think that in the future we will, but it will take time for leaders to realize the potential then go for it.

 

[JimBowie1958]

Save the humans!

- none of the above because until forced to do so things never change.

We had cellular technology for at least a couple decades before cell phones became ubiquitous. But, in a sense, people were moving towards the iPhone for 30 years. It started with the Motorola pager, and Palm Pilots. I got a pager when my wife was pregnant. I'd get a text and get all excited, but then see that she just wanted me to pick up some eggs or something frivolous. Nokia phones became very popular for texting in Europe, but most Americans just had them for emergencies. Serious techies had Blackberries. Eventually we got to the point where Apple made the iPhone ultra-trendy with people lining up around the block to get one.

The smart phone has become the Swiss Army knife of modern life. It has a ways to go before it becomes obsolete. But, the integrated bio-chip will replace the smart phone in the not too distant future. Then, people will be connected like the Borg. It's likely that if I have grandchildren, their genes will either be selected or manipulated. They may grow up to experience life mostly thru the future internalized version of the Oculus virtual reality device.

It's noteworthy that the Pope's 'global warming' encyclical only mentioned warming and climate change 9 and 12 times respectively (out of 40,000+ total words). Most of the teaching was about spiritual, economic and technological sociological issues. "Life gradually becomes a surrender to situations conditioned by technology", he said. "It has become countercultural", Francis continued, "to choose a lifestyle whose goals are even partly independent of technology." The encyclical often reads like a sad swan song of the human species, and in that sense it resonates with me.

SSTNG did a huge disservice to the concept of a cyborg with their Borg dystopian thread. Why cant the Borg be happy? What would you have to change to make the Borg into a 'happy' population or one that you think in your world view would be a happy place among the Borg for you to live among them in their society?

For me I would say that they would have to have 1) human rights to dissent from the rest of the Borg, 2) the right to private thought, 3) elected leadership, 4) change in laws through a democratic-republican system, 5) the right to worship whatever religion I decide to, and 6) an inalieanable right to defend myself with any available weapons.

 

[Uncensored2008]

By 2050, I'll be needing a personal power source for myself...

No worries, you'll have geothermal, if you catch my drift.

I will be 91 if I don't join you in the geothermal ranks.

 

[Moonglow]

By 2050, I'll be needing a personal power source for myself...

No worries, you'll have geothermal, if you catch my drift.

I will be 91 if I don't join you in the geothermal ranks.

I'll only be 89, a spring chicken that will have his own head on an android body....

 

[JimBowie1958]

By 2050, I'll be needing a personal power source for myself...

No worries, you'll have geothermal, if you catch my drift.

I will be 91 if I don't join you in the geothermal ranks.

I'll only be 89, a spring chicken that will have his own head on an android body....

You might want to get a head without all the damage and defects of your current model, lol.

Seriously, why go android body when nanites might very well do all that for you that you want with your own body?

Tiny Implants Could Give Humans Self-Healing Superpowers

 

[JimBowie1958]

By 2050, I'll be needing a personal power source for myself...

No worries, you'll have geothermal, if you catch my drift.

I will be 91 if I don't join you in the geothermal ranks.

Average life spans of Americans born in each year:
1930 59.7
1940 62.9 +3.2
1950 68.2 +5.3
1960 69.7 +1.5
1970 70.8 +1.1
1980 73.7 +1.9
1990 75.4 +1.7
2000 77.0 +1.6
2010 78.7 +1.7

Life Expectancy at Birth by Race and Sex 1930 2010

At this rate, by 2050, life expectancy would likely be at least 88, and I am sure much higher than that as the most common causes of death are cured, like cancer, heart disease and stroke. We should see a bigger jump over the next ten years than they saw from 1930 to 1950.