Arctic sea ice melting toward record

[westwall]

As Arctic Ocean warms, megatonnes of methane bubble up - environment - 17 August 2009 - New Scientist

It's been predicted for years, and now it's happening. Deep in the Arctic Ocean, water warmed by climate change is forcing the release of methane from beneath the sea floor.

Over 250 plumes of gas have been discovered bubbling up from the sea floor to the west of the Svalbard archipelago, which lies north of Norway. The bubbles are mostly methane, which is a greenhouse gas much more powerful than carbon dioxide.

The methane is probably coming from reserves of methane hydrate beneath the sea bed. These hydrates, also known as clathrates, are water ice with methane molecules embedded in them.

The methane plumes were discovered by an expedition aboard the research ship James Clark Ross, led by Graham Westbrook of the University of Birmingham and Tim Minshull of the National Oceanography Centre, Southampton, both in the UK

Hi oldie,

I have a few problems with this story you posted. First of all it assumes the plumes are coming from methane hydrates and while they admit that the methane could be from a primary source they think it unlikely because of the amount of gas...I guess they are unfamiliar with the spill currently going on in the Gulf.

The problem with the hydrate theory is the simple fact that methane hydrate really does exist in a very narrow range. And not where they are finding the plumes.

https://www.llnl.gov/str/Durham.html

Has a very nice comprehensive view of methane hydrate formation and stability issues. Please note that at the low depths associated with the archipelago there is neither the pressure nor the low temperature to form the hydrates in the first place. At high preassure the hydrates can survive up to a temperature of 275 kelvin which is 2 degrees above freezing. At low pressures such as at low depth that drops to around 225 kelvin which is the temp you find in a lab and nowhere else.

The graph below shows the temperature drop with depth and as you can see the depth of the archipelago is above the thermocline.


If you have any further information on this I would love to see it.

 

[Old Rocks]

Study: Arctic seabed methane stores destabilizing, venting

Study: Arctic seabed methane stores destabilizing, venting
March 4, 2010 A section of the Arctic Ocean seafloor that holds vast stores of frozen methane is showing signs of instability and widespread venting of the powerful greenhouse gas, according to the findings of an international research team led by University of Alaska Fairbanks scientists Natalia Shakhova and Igor Semiletov.


The research results, published in the March 5 edition of the journal Science, show that the permafrost under the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, long thought to be an impermeable barrier sealing in methane, is perforated and is leaking large amounts of methane into the atmosphere. Release of even a fraction of the methane stored in the shelf could trigger abrupt climate warming.

“The amount of methane currently coming out of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf is comparable to the amount coming out of the entire world’s oceans,” said Shakhova, a researcher at UAF’s International Arctic Research Center. “Subsea permafrost is losing its ability to be an impermeable cap.”

 

[Old Rocks]

A much more complete look at the formation and existance of the ocean clathrates, around the world.

http://www.fe.doe.gov/programs/oilgas/publications/methane_hydrates/CongressReport.pdf

 

[Chris]

The release of arctic methane will accelerate global warming by an huge amount.

It really is the tipping point.

 

[syrenn]

Study: Arctic seabed methane stores destabilizing, venting

Study: Arctic seabed methane stores destabilizing, venting
March 4, 2010 A section of the Arctic Ocean seafloor that holds vast stores of frozen methane is showing signs of instability and widespread venting of the powerful greenhouse gas, according to the findings of an international research team led by University of Alaska Fairbanks scientists Natalia Shakhova and Igor Semiletov.


The research results, published in the March 5 edition of the journal Science, show that the permafrost under the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, long thought to be an impermeable barrier sealing in methane, is perforated and is leaking large amounts of methane into the atmosphere. Release of even a fraction of the methane stored in the shelf could trigger abrupt climate warming.

“The amount of methane currently coming out of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf is comparable to the amount coming out of the entire world’s oceans,” said Shakhova, a researcher at UAF’s International Arctic Research Center. “Subsea permafrost is losing its ability to be an impermeable cap.”

Sheesh

How many times do I have to explain that abrupt climate change is a natural event of the earth?

Hot Warm Cold, Cold Warm Hot!

 

[elvis]

The release of arctic methane will accelerate global warming by an huge amount.

It really is the tipping point.

oh no! uncle Al. Uncle Al.

 

[elvis]

Si;

Your dishonesty is on display. You have been told that unless CO2 concentrations are the only variable in any warming, your point is nothing more than nonsense and you've been told this at least four times by me. Also, correlation is not causation. At least the fourth time by me, again.

And what other variable has changed by an apreciable percentage? And for the fourth time again, you spout nonsense.

I have no idea what you are trying to say. Not in the least.

Perhaps someone can help you to articulate something.

chris can't help him.

 

[SpidermanTuba]

Hmm.. right.

You do understand the difference between the "globe" and "Europe", right? Or did you mama drop you repeatedly off the statue of liberty?

 

[Old Rocks]

Study: Arctic seabed methane stores destabilizing, venting

Study: Arctic seabed methane stores destabilizing, venting
March 4, 2010 A section of the Arctic Ocean seafloor that holds vast stores of frozen methane is showing signs of instability and widespread venting of the powerful greenhouse gas, according to the findings of an international research team led by University of Alaska Fairbanks scientists Natalia Shakhova and Igor Semiletov.


The research results, published in the March 5 edition of the journal Science, show that the permafrost under the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, long thought to be an impermeable barrier sealing in methane, is perforated and is leaking large amounts of methane into the atmosphere. Release of even a fraction of the methane stored in the shelf could trigger abrupt climate warming.

“The amount of methane currently coming out of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf is comparable to the amount coming out of the entire world’s oceans,” said Shakhova, a researcher at UAF’s International Arctic Research Center. “Subsea permafrost is losing its ability to be an impermeable cap.”

Sheesh

How many times do I have to explain that abrupt climate change is a natural event of the earth?

Hot Warm Cold, Cold Warm Hot!

Have you a Doctorate in climatology? If not, then perhaps you could post a link to someone that does who is saying just that.

 

[Old Rocks]

Si;

Your dishonesty is on display. You have been told that unless CO2 concentrations are the only variable in any warming, your point is nothing more than nonsense and you've been told this at least four times by me. Also, correlation is not causation. At least the fourth time by me, again.

And what other variable has changed by an apreciable percentage? And for the fourth time again, you spout nonsense.

I have no idea what you are trying to say. Not in the least.

Perhaps someone can help you to articulate something.

chris can't help him.

Now if it isn't ol' Rent-a-Boy himself.

 

[westwall]

Study: Arctic seabed methane stores destabilizing, venting

Study: Arctic seabed methane stores destabilizing, venting
March 4, 2010 A section of the Arctic Ocean seafloor that holds vast stores of frozen methane is showing signs of instability and widespread venting of the powerful greenhouse gas, according to the findings of an international research team led by University of Alaska Fairbanks scientists Natalia Shakhova and Igor Semiletov.


The research results, published in the March 5 edition of the journal Science, show that the permafrost under the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, long thought to be an impermeable barrier sealing in methane, is perforated and is leaking large amounts of methane into the atmosphere. Release of even a fraction of the methane stored in the shelf could trigger abrupt climate warming.

“The amount of methane currently coming out of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf is comparable to the amount coming out of the entire world’s oceans,” said Shakhova, a researcher at UAF’s International Arctic Research Center. “Subsea permafrost is losing its ability to be an impermeable cap.”

Sheesh

How many times do I have to explain that abrupt climate change is a natural event of the earth?

Hot Warm Cold, Cold Warm Hot!

Have you a Doctorate in climatology? If not, then perhaps you could post a link to someone that does who is saying just that.

Based on the people who have them, Doctorates in climatology are good for wiping your ass and very little else.

 

[syrenn]

Have you a Doctorate in climatology? If not, then perhaps you could post a link to someone that does who is saying just that.

Interesting question. Do you have a Doctorate in climatology?

 

[Chris]

Study: Arctic seabed methane stores destabilizing, venting

Study: Arctic seabed methane stores destabilizing, venting
March 4, 2010 A section of the Arctic Ocean seafloor that holds vast stores of frozen methane is showing signs of instability and widespread venting of the powerful greenhouse gas, according to the findings of an international research team led by University of Alaska Fairbanks scientists Natalia Shakhova and Igor Semiletov.


The research results, published in the March 5 edition of the journal Science, show that the permafrost under the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, long thought to be an impermeable barrier sealing in methane, is perforated and is leaking large amounts of methane into the atmosphere. Release of even a fraction of the methane stored in the shelf could trigger abrupt climate warming.

“The amount of methane currently coming out of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf is comparable to the amount coming out of the entire world’s oceans,” said Shakhova, a researcher at UAF’s International Arctic Research Center. “Subsea permafrost is losing its ability to be an impermeable cap.”

Sheesh

How many times do I have to explain that abrupt climate change is a natural event of the earth?

Hot Warm Cold, Cold Warm Hot!

How many times do I have to explain that if you double atmospheric CO2 it will cause the earth to warm?

 

[elvis]

I have no idea what you are trying to say. Not in the least.

Perhaps someone can help you to articulate something.

chris can't help him.

Now if it isn't ol' Rent-a-Boy himself.

does chris rent you? is that how that works, Monica?

 

[Chris]

The most comprehensive modeling yet carried out on the likelihood of how much hotter the Earth's climate will get in this century shows that without rapid and massive action, the problem will be about twice as severe as previously estimated six years ago - and could be even worse than that.

The study uses the MIT Integrated Global Systems Model, a detailed computer simulation of global economic activity and climate processes that has been developed and refined by the Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change since the early 1990s. The new research involved 400 runs of the model with each run using slight variations in input parameters, selected so that each run has about an equal probability of being correct based on present observations and knowledge. Other research groups have estimated the probabilities of various outcomes, based on variations in the physical response of the climate system itself. But the MIT model is the only one that interactively includes detailed treatment of possible changes in human activities as well - such as the degree of economic growth, with its associated energy use, in different countries.

Study co-author Ronald Prinn, the co-director of the Joint Program and director of MIT's Center for Global Change Science, says that, regarding global warming, it is important "to base our opinions and policies on the peer-reviewed science," he says. And in the peer-reviewed literature, the MIT model, unlike any other, looks in great detail at the effects of economic activity coupled with the effects of atmospheric, oceanic and biological systems. "In that sense, our work is unique," he says.

The new projections, published this month in the American Meteorological Society's Journal of Climate, indicate a median probability of surface warming of 5.2 degrees Celsius by 2100, with a 90% probability range of 3.5 to 7.4 degrees.

http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2009/roulette-0519.html

 

[westwall]

The most comprehensive modeling yet carried out on the likelihood of how much hotter the Earth's climate will get in this century shows that without rapid and massive action, the problem will be about twice as severe as previously estimated six years ago - and could be even worse than that.

The study uses the MIT Integrated Global Systems Model, a detailed computer simulation of global economic activity and climate processes that has been developed and refined by the Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change since the early 1990s. The new research involved 400 runs of the model with each run using slight variations in input parameters, selected so that each run has about an equal probability of being correct based on present observations and knowledge. Other research groups have estimated the probabilities of various outcomes, based on variations in the physical response of the climate system itself. But the MIT model is the only one that interactively includes detailed treatment of possible changes in human activities as well - such as the degree of economic growth, with its associated energy use, in different countries.

Study co-author Ronald Prinn, the co-director of the Joint Program and director of MIT's Center for Global Change Science, says that, regarding global warming, it is important "to base our opinions and policies on the peer-reviewed science," he says. And in the peer-reviewed literature, the MIT model, unlike any other, looks in great detail at the effects of economic activity coupled with the effects of atmospheric, oceanic and biological systems. "In that sense, our work is unique," he says.

The new projections, published this month in the American Meteorological Society's Journal of Climate, indicate a median probability of surface warming of 5.2 degrees Celsius by 2100, with a 90% probability range of 3.5 to 7.4 degrees.

http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2009/roulette-0519.html

Based on how inacurate the models have allways been I am not the slightest bit concerned.

 

[Chris]

The most comprehensive modeling yet carried out on the likelihood of how much hotter the Earth's climate will get in this century shows that without rapid and massive action, the problem will be about twice as severe as previously estimated six years ago - and could be even worse than that.

The study uses the MIT Integrated Global Systems Model, a detailed computer simulation of global economic activity and climate processes that has been developed and refined by the Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change since the early 1990s. The new research involved 400 runs of the model with each run using slight variations in input parameters, selected so that each run has about an equal probability of being correct based on present observations and knowledge. Other research groups have estimated the probabilities of various outcomes, based on variations in the physical response of the climate system itself. But the MIT model is the only one that interactively includes detailed treatment of possible changes in human activities as well - such as the degree of economic growth, with its associated energy use, in different countries.

Study co-author Ronald Prinn, the co-director of the Joint Program and director of MIT's Center for Global Change Science, says that, regarding global warming, it is important "to base our opinions and policies on the peer-reviewed science," he says. And in the peer-reviewed literature, the MIT model, unlike any other, looks in great detail at the effects of economic activity coupled with the effects of atmospheric, oceanic and biological systems. "In that sense, our work is unique," he says.

The new projections, published this month in the American Meteorological Society's Journal of Climate, indicate a median probability of surface warming of 5.2 degrees Celsius by 2100, with a 90% probability range of 3.5 to 7.4 degrees.

Climate change odds much worse than thought

Based on how inacurate the models have allways been I am not the slightest bit concerned.

I have no doubt you are smarter than the boys at MIT.

But I bet they can spell the word, "always."

 

[Big Fitz]

I see the cargo cultists are out again worshiping Chicken Little.

 

[Big Fitz]

Have you a Doctorate in climatology? If not, then perhaps you could post a link to someone that does who is saying just that.

Interesting question. Do you have a Doctorate in climatology?

No, he doesn't. But he pretends to be the sole authority on what is and isn't science from his Maintenance shack at his Oregon mill.

The herald of truthiness and fact he is... in his own mind.

 

[Big Fitz]

More dishonesty by Si. No one ever claimed that CO2 was the only variable. In fact, it has been pointed out many times by the honest posters here that the TSI, NAO, and La Nina, El Nino oscilations all contribute to the variability of the weather.

Oh how quickly they forget their own mantra. You've been screaming till blood spattered us from your shredded vocal chords how we have to stop CO2. Nothing else would do. You typed your little fingers to skeletal nubs with fake science and bullshit activist links 'proving' that CO2 was the holy grail of climate change.

Now... not so much? buh?

Do you have a SHRED of intellectual integrity? Did you ever?