The Almanac has an 80% hit rate
Bullshit. The almanac _claims_ such a thing, but those with a functioning BS detector understand the difference between a claim and a fact.
Denialists are almost always perfect examples of this:
Right-wing authoritarianism - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
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According to research by Altemeyer, right-wing authoritarians tend to exhibit cognitive errors and symptoms of faulty reasoning. Specifically, they are more likely to make incorrect inferences from evidence and to hold contradictory ideas that result from compartmentalized thinking. They are also more likely to uncritically accept insufficient evidence that supports their beliefs, and they are less likely to acknowledge their own limitations.
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Oh lookey, the admiral posts a non-sequiter attack instead of trying to refute the post.
How common, and pathetic....
On The Money – Farmers’ Almanac Accuracy
Major Weather Events Accurately Predicted by the FarmersÂ’ Almanac
• The Farmers’ Almanac predicted a severe heat wave along the East Coast and Great Lakes during the summer of 2013, and those predictions came true in July, with extreme heat wilting much of that region.
• The Farmers’ Almanac predicted that the spring of 2013 would be unusually wet and cool across much of the U.S. and Canada. In the Northern and Central Plains and Western Great Lakes, April of that year was very cold, white, and wet that meteorologists don’t expect to see it happen again for another 50 or 100 years.
• For mid-February, 2013 the Farmers’ Almanac forecast a “major Northeast snowstorm” with accumulations exceeding one foot and accompanied by strong winds causing blowing snow. And indeed, a clipper system and coastal storm merged to create blizzard conditions in parts of the Northeast. The storm dumped record-setting snowfall from New York to Maine. The highest snowfall total of 40 inches was reported in Hamden, CT. Strong winds (a gust of 83 mph was reported in Falmouth, MA) brought whiteout conditions to much of New England and whipped up waves that carved a 1,600-foot-wide hole in the barrier beach near Chatham, MA. In New York, the storm left more than one hundred cars stranded along the Long Island Expressway while in Connecticut there were reports of over a dozen collapsed roofs due to the snow. The storm left some 650,000 customers without power and resulted in a dozen deaths.
• The Farmers’ Almanac predicted that the summer of 2012 would be exceptionally hot in many regions of the U.S., and July 2012 proved to be the hottest month ever recorded in U.S. history.
• The Farmers’ Almanac forewarned of a tropical disturbance for the Southeast during late June, 2012, and tropical storm Debby hit on June 24th.
• The Farmers’ Almanac accurately predicted a wet winter of 2011-12 for Texas. Heavy precipitation helped to alleviate their severe drought, shrinking the total area affected from 43.3% in early December to 14.8% by the end of February.
• The Farmers’ Almanac called for a balmy winter for the Southern and Eastern U.S. in 2011-12. For New England, New York, New Jersey, and Delaware, the winter ranked as either the second or third warmest winter in 117 years of available records. Massachusetts tied for its warmest February. It was the second warmest winter on record for Boston and New York; the fourth warmest for Washington, D.C., and Philadelphia.
• The Farmers’ Almanac once again predicted a major snowstorm would hit the Rockies and Plains in the opening days of February 2012. February 2nd–4th saw a very heavy snowstorm that blanketed Colorado and Nebraska. Denver set a new snowstorm record for February of 15.9 inches.
• The Farmers’ Almanac accurately predicted the major winter storm that brought blizzard conditions to parts of the Southern Rockies and Central Plains on December 19th and 20th, 2011.
• The Farmers’ Almanac predicted a major storm for the East Coast between October 28th and 31st, 2011. On October 29th, a deepening storm system moved up the Eastern seaboard, interacted with an unusually chilly airmass, and snowflakes began to fall. It was a stormy period for the Northeast U.S., with copious rain and even snow over higher elevations and northern New England.
• The 2011 Farmers’ Almanac also forecast a hurricane threat for the Southeastern U.S. at the end of August, which came true in the form of Hurricane Irene.
On The Money ? Farmers? Almanac Accuracy | Farmers' Almanac
DALLAS — The Farmers' Almanac hit newsstands Monday and is already creating a buzz for the upcoming winter. The 197-year-old publication is describing the 2013-2014 winter with phrases that include "bitterly cold" and "piercing cold."
Their forecast is also flagging the first week of February for a major snowstorm in the Northeast. This would possibly disrupt the Super Bowl that is being played at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey that first week.
Next year's Super Bowl could be renamed the "Storm Bowl" if this prediction plays out.
"Caleb Weatherbee," the pseudonym of the publication's official forecaster, said the "Days of Shivery" are back for the 2013-2014 season. Below average temperatures are predicted for at least two-thirds of the nation.
Texas is pegged to have a "frosty and unusually wet" winter.
The Farmers' Almanac says its predictions are about 80 percent accurate. Does that accuracy hold for past weather events in North Texas?
We checked the facts versus the Farmers' Almanac predictions for three major North Texas weather events. Explanations from the Farmers' Almanac were provided by managing editor Sandi Duncan.
A snowy Super Bowl — First week of February 2011
FACT: North Texas experienced major winter weather just before the Super Bowl at what was then Cowboys Statdium on February 6, 2011. The first week of February started off with high temperatures in the 20s and lows dropping into the teens. Record snowfall was recorded for February 3-4, 2011 at DFW International Airport. The snowy start to the month plus the icy roads disrupted many Super Bowl activities. Many events were cancelled in and around Dallas-Fort Worth.
FARMERS' ALMANAC PREDICTION: We predicted snow and ice in the days leading up to and after the game, but not for the game day itself.
CONCLUSION:
Generally accurate.
The heat wave during the summer of 2011 (June - August 2011)
FACT: The summer of 2011 went in the record books as the 2nd hottest summer ever. DFW International Airport recorded at or above 100-degree temperatures 40 days straight — from July 2 through August 10. That summer also took the top slot for most 100-degree days in a year with a total of 71.
FARMERS' ALMANAC PREDICTION: We predicted that the summer would be "hotter than average."
CONCLUSION:
Generally accurate.
April 3, 2012 tornado outbreak
FACT: The afternoon of April 3 turned chaotic as an outflow boundary from Oklahoma swept in producing a tornadic environment across North Texas. There were 17 confirmed tornado touchdowns in North Texas. Even with that many tornadoes touching down in a major metropolitan area, there were no fatalities due to quick responses to the threat of severe weather.
FARMERS' ALMANAC: We predicted thunderstorms. We rarely predict tornadoes, but we make it clear that tornadoes are a threat during any major thunderstorm.
CONCLUSION:
Generally accurate.
The Farmers' Almanac had 'general predictions' that did line up with what happened during these three weather events in North Texas. The publication may be a good source to get a general idea of the upcoming weather patterns, but it may not be the best tool for pin-pointing day-to-day forecasts.
According to the Farmers' Almanac, everyone better dust off those coats and gloves for the upcoming winter!
Fact-checking the Farmers' Almanac | wfaa.com Dallas - Fort Worth
