A different look at the labor shortage....

[JGalt]

Must be boring in your little bunker this morning.

Well thank you very much. I have my own take on the labor shortage and its many reasons:

1. Joe Biden

2. Joe Biden

3. Joe Biden

4. Joe Biden.

 

[MisterBeale]

First is the fact that the pandemic prompted a record number of new businesses. The peak was in July 2020, when close to 600,000 new business applications were filed, up 100% from the year prior. Monthly applications have since fallen but remain about 50% higher than before the virus took hold.

Thanks Gator. Informative post.

That puts this move by the current Admin., much more in perspective and makes much more sense of it.

 

[iceberg]

you forgot about:
the stimulus free $$$$
the free $300 per child
rent eviction ban
.....my niece got $7000 last stimulus ...and $600 every month paid by YOU and me

um it talks about how the availability of funds makes a single income household possible.

that may change as those funds fade. however if the climate increased by 100% of businesses looking for workers, that puts a huge hit on a diminishing category

people need to stop getting mad and start thinking.

 

[harmonica]

um it talks about how the availability of funds makes a single income household possible.

that may change as those funds fade. however if the climate increased by 100% of businesses looking for workers, that puts a huge hit on a diminishing category

people need to stop getting mad and start thinking.

..depends on where you live also...where I am at, it doesn't take much to live on---IF, you plan/are not stupid/etc.....people having kids when they are not ready is a big problem.....
....some places like NYork/NYC/LA/Calif/etc are high priced and high poverty ---housing is high priced .......where in other places, housing is very affordable--which is a big part of anyone's budget
.....a lot of ''poverty''/etc is because people are just plain stupid--over spending.....buying on credit--and buying shit they don't need on credit ......buying a huge house they can't afford

 

[danielpalos]

Your point of new business filings is important. Many people had the opportunity to start their own gigs from home and told their former employer to eat shit and die

People are going to find their way around anything and survive

The market is in flux; only conservatives want the status quo.

 

[RoshawnMarkwees]

you forgot about:
the stimulus free $$$$
the free $300 per child
rent eviction ban
.....my niece got $7000 last stimulus ...and $600 every month paid by YOU and me

Details, details…

 

[task0778]

This is a bit of a different take on what is causing the labor shortages.

To attribute slow hiring mainly to the pandemic presumes the labor shortage is temporary. But travel trends examined by Barron’s suggest the acute lack of workers owes to more than Covid infection rates, a revelation that raises questions about why workers are staying home and whether they will come back to the traditional labor market.

...

Mobility trends in states including Arkansas, Ohio, Oklahoma, and Maine show traffic is rising across all categories—except places of work. If it’s the fear of Covid preventing a broader return to work, why is public transportation traffic up in states where workplace traffic is down? It stands to reason that a person avoiding work to avoid infection would probably avoid mass transit. Traffic is down across all categories in many states, but often with much more pronounced declines in workplace traffic compared with transit, retail, and other places.

...

First is the fact that the pandemic prompted a record number of new businesses. The peak was in July 2020, when close to 600,000 new business applications were filed, up 100% from the year prior. Monthly applications have since fallen but remain about 50% higher than before the virus took hold.

...

Veronica Clark, economist at Citi, says that despite the labor market hole of about five million, household income is back to prepandemic levels. That suggests some two-income households have become one-income households because they can afford to, she says. It’s possible the 47% gain in the S&P 500 since its March 2020 low, coupled with a 25% rise in home prices since the pandemic started, has many households feeling flush. What if many of the two million parents—mainly mothers—who dropped out of the labor force last year don’t return? It’s time to ask that question given that the new school year has failed to bring back workers.

First, I couldn't get to your link cuz it has a paywall, so I'll just respond to what you wrote:

I don't believe the labor shortage is temporary, or at least not quickly addressed and fixed. There's a guy named John Mauldin who writes a weekly missive about business and the economy that I get in an email and he wrote this on Saturday:


A couple of points. First, this frustration with work has been building for decades. It has to do partly with income and wealth disparity, and partly with the frustration of life. People see others seemingly benefiting while they’re working their asses off (that’s a technical economic term).

In the COVID recession, people were forced to not work, or to work in very difficult situations. This made them rethink age-old questions. What do you want out of life? Long-haul truck driving is lonely and difficult, and from the data unhealthy. Most of my readers are retired or hold jobs they find fulfilling. But if you work in the lower levels of the hospitality industry or other dangerous jobs, if you don’t feel appreciated, maybe you start thinking about changing careers even if you make good money. The McKinsey data clearly shows that’s what is happening.

Second, COVID has introduced pressures into life that weren’t there before. And if you don’t feel comfortable going out in public, it’s difficult to say “I want a job” where you would be working in public. Throw in the political divide of mandates versus non-mandates, the finger-pointing, the politicization of the virus, the mis- and disinformation about vaccines and the virus, and you have a witch’s brew of reluctant workers.

Wages are important but less than many employers think. They are treating the problem as if it is a transaction. If I offer you more money, you should want to work here. But potential employees are obviously looking for something more than a mere transaction (money) to be the center and focus of their own personal lives. It is truly a clash of cultures, kind of like Baby Boomers not understanding Gen X or Y.


I think people are still quite unsettled about the COVID even if they got a shot(s). And so if they can get by financially by one or both breadwinners bringing home enough income then why go back to work outside the home? And the other thing is schooling, home schooling is a thing these days cuz many parents don't like what some school districts are teaching their kids: CRT and so forth. Or they don't like the masks or the shots or whatever. Upshot is, more adults are staying home and finding ways to make ends meet. I dunno how long that can last though, frankly I don't like the direction we're heading in for the near future or longer either.

 

[OldFlame]

There are many factor's besides the above that has led to the shortage. It doesn't help that many of the 743,000 that have died of Covid were in the work place. This past month the largest group of deaths from Covid were between 35-54 age group. COVID-19 was the No. 1 killer of Americans age 35 to 54 last month, and No. 2 overall

Then there is immigration. Although our population grew 7.4% between 2010 - 2020 it's the slowest growth rate since 1930.

Domino's Pizza CEO says U.S. needs more immigration to address nationwide worker shortages

"We need immigration in our industry to continue to have enough team members," Domino's Pizza CEO Ritch Allison told CNBC's Jim Cramer.

www.cnbc.com

75%+ of supposed covid deaths are age 65 and over, try again.

 

[busybee01]

The Labor Shortage Is Getting Worse. A Return to ‘Normal’ Looks Questionable.

September’s jobs report failed to show a mass return to work, and instead showed signs of inflation. It’s time to ask whether economists, policy makers and investors are overattributing the labor shortage to temporary Covid-19 factors and missing the curve on inflation.

www.barrons.com

This is a bit of a different take on what is causing the labor shortages.

To attribute slow hiring mainly to the pandemic presumes the labor shortage is temporary. But travel trends examined by Barron’s suggest the acute lack of workers owes to more than Covid infection rates, a revelation that raises questions about why workers are staying home and whether they will come back to the traditional labor market.

...

Mobility trends in states including Arkansas, Ohio, Oklahoma, and Maine show traffic is rising across all categories—except places of work. If it’s the fear of Covid preventing a broader return to work, why is public transportation traffic up in states where workplace traffic is down? It stands to reason that a person avoiding work to avoid infection would probably avoid mass transit. Traffic is down across all categories in many states, but often with much more pronounced declines in workplace traffic compared with transit, retail, and other places.

...

First is the fact that the pandemic prompted a record number of new businesses. The peak was in July 2020, when close to 600,000 new business applications were filed, up 100% from the year prior. Monthly applications have since fallen but remain about 50% higher than before the virus took hold.

...

Veronica Clark, economist at Citi, says that despite the labor market hole of about five million, household income is back to prepandemic levels. That suggests some two-income households have become one-income households because they can afford to, she says. It’s possible the 47% gain in the S&P 500 since its March 2020 low, coupled with a 25% rise in home prices since the pandemic started, has many households feeling flush. What if many of the two million parents—mainly mothers—who dropped out of the labor force last year don’t return? It’s time to ask that question given that the new school year has failed to bring back workers.

The pandemic is a part of the reason why people are either not getting jobs or quitting. Another part of this is because of the fact that big corporations and the rich are getting nearly all of the profits. They shovel more work on overworked employees and refuse to give them a raise or bonus for completing the extra work. Corporations have become the most efficient slave owners in the history of this country. This editorial cartoon says it all.

 

[busybee01]

First, I couldn't get to your link cuz it has a paywall, so I'll just respond to what you wrote:

I don't believe the labor shortage is temporary, or at least not quickly addressed and fixed. There's a guy named John Mauldin who writes a weekly missive about business and the economy that I get in an email and he wrote this on Saturday:


A couple of points. First, this frustration with work has been building for decades. It has to do partly with income and wealth disparity, and partly with the frustration of life. People see others seemingly benefiting while they’re working their asses off (that’s a technical economic term).

In the COVID recession, people were forced to not work, or to work in very difficult situations. This made them rethink age-old questions. What do you want out of life? Long-haul truck driving is lonely and difficult, and from the data unhealthy. Most of my readers are retired or hold jobs they find fulfilling. But if you work in the lower levels of the hospitality industry or other dangerous jobs, if you don’t feel appreciated, maybe you start thinking about changing careers even if you make good money. The McKinsey data clearly shows that’s what is happening.

Second, COVID has introduced pressures into life that weren’t there before. And if you don’t feel comfortable going out in public, it’s difficult to say “I want a job” where you would be working in public. Throw in the political divide of mandates versus non-mandates, the finger-pointing, the politicization of the virus, the mis- and disinformation about vaccines and the virus, and you have a witch’s brew of reluctant workers.

Wages are important but less than many employers think. They are treating the problem as if it is a transaction. If I offer you more money, you should want to work here. But potential employees are obviously looking for something more than a mere transaction (money) to be the center and focus of their own personal lives. It is truly a clash of cultures, kind of like Baby Boomers not understanding Gen X or Y.


I think people are still quite unsettled about the COVID even if they got a shot(s). And so if they can get by financially by one or both breadwinners bringing home enough income then why go back to work outside the home? And the other thing is schooling, home schooling is a thing these days cuz many parents don't like what some school districts are teaching their kids: CRT and so forth. Or they don't like the masks or the shots or whatever. Upshot is, more adults are staying home and finding ways to make ends meet. I dunno how long that can last though, frankly I don't like the direction we're heading in for the near future or longer either.

Wages can cover a multitude of sins. Jim Cramer pointed out in the Bakken boom in 2011, people flocked there to work even though it was a miserable experience. The reason was because the pay was so great.

The pandemic has created a greater shift in the nation's wealth distribution. The top 1% have 27% of the nation's wealth while the middle 60% have 26.7%. This is the first time it has happened in the US.