1st (2016) "Trifecta" poll from 2015: Clinton sweeps

[Statistikhengst]

Quinnipiac has put out the first poll pitting Hillary Clinton (D) against 6 prospective GOP candidates in three states that have been called the "Trifecta": Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania

Those states are worth 67 EV, or about 10% of what a candidate needs to get to 270.

Quinnipiac University Poll Quinnipiac University Connecticut

In all three states, Clinton was polled against Christie, Paul, Bush, Huckabee and Romney. The polling was obviously taking place shortly before Romney decided that he would not run.

Additionally, in each of the three states, a "favorite son" was polled against Hillary: Rubio (Florida), Kasich (Ohio) and Santorum (Pennsylvania).

The results: Hillary wins all 18 matchups and 16 of those 18 are double-digit wins. The two other matchups are technically ties: against Bush (Jeb) in Florida and Kasich in Ohio.

Stats:

Florida: 936 RV, MoE=+/-3.2
Ohio: 943 RV, MoE=+/-3.2
Pennsylvania: : 881 RV, MoE=+/-3.3


Florida:
Clinton (D) 51 / Christie (R) 33 - margin: Clinton +18
Clinton (D) 50 / Paul (R) 38 - margin: Clinton +12
Clinton (D) 44 / Bush, J (R) 43 - margin: Clinton +1
Clinton (D) 51 / Huckabee (R) 39 - margin: Clinton +11
Clinton (D) 50 / Romney (R) 37 - margin: Clinton +13
Clinton (D) 49 / Rubio (R) 39 - margin: Clinton +10

Ohio:
Clinton (D) 47 / Christie (R) 34 - margin: Clinton +13
Clinton (D) 48 / Paul (R) 38 - margin: Clinton +10
Clinton (D) 47 / Bush, J (R) 36 - margin: Clinton +11
Clinton (D) 49 / Huckabee (R) 34 - margin: Clinton +15
Clinton (D) 49 / Romney (R) 37 - margin: Clinton +12
Clinton (D) 44 / Kasich (R) 43 - margin: Clinton +1

Pennsylvania:
Clinton (D) 50 / Christie (R) 39 - margin: Clinton +11
Clinton (D) 53 / Paul (R) 34 - margin: Clinton +19
Clinton (D) 50 / Bush, J (R) 35 - margin: Clinton +15
Clinton (D) 54 / Huckabee (R) 34 - margin: Clinton +20
Clinton (D) 50 / Romney (R) 37 - margin: Clinton +13
Clinton (D) 54 / Santorum (R) 34 - margin: Clinton +20


The good news for the GOP is that with one candidate, it is competitive in Florida (Jeb Bush). The bad news is: that candidate is getting crushed in the rest of the Trifecta.

Now, whether Pennsylvania should even be considered part of the Trifecta in today's electoral landscape is a good question, for if we are honest about the electoral history of the Keystone State, it is no longer a swing state like Ohio and Florida. It is very likely that Virginia would be a more accurate state to have in a Trifecta, or at least have a Quadrifecta.

In Florida, aside from the statistical tie with Jeb Bush, Clinton's margins range from +10 to +18. Those are MASSIVE margins in what has been a low single-digit win state for 6 cycles in a row. Unfortunately for Jeb Bush, he does quite poorly in both Ohio and Pennsylvania.

In Ohio, aside from the statistical tie with John Kasich, Clinton's margins range from +10 to +15. In my lifetime, we have not seen such consistently high margins for a Democrat against (most all comers), ever. Bill Clinton never scored these kind of polling results, ever. Neither did Obama.

In Pennsylvania, no one even comes remotely close to Clinton, with margins from +11 to a crushing +20. Pennsylvania is now a 6 for 6 DEM state, since 1992, and in 1998, Bush 41 barely carried the state (+2.32%). Aside from 2008, since 1976, this has been a middle to low single digit state. These numbers in Pennsylvania are nothing less than astonishing.

Now, this is just one poll, of three key states, but none of this stuff occurs in a vaccuum.

With this poll, this now makes (for 2016, Clinton vs. assorted GOP comers):

-19 polls from Florida, 64 Hillary wins, 2 GOP wins.
-8 polls from Ohio, 42 Hillary wins, one absolute tie.

and

-10 polls from Pennsylvania, 46 Hillary wins, 1 GOP win.

More than that, go to the link and see how Hillary is doing with the female vote in those three states...


Facit: if these numbers hold, then Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida may not even be battleground states in 2016.

 

[Mad Scientist]

If I'm not mistaken, Quinnipiac was the only poll that showed John McCain winning in 2008.

 

[Statistikhengst]

If I'm not mistaken, Quinnipiac was the only poll that showed John McCain winning in 2008.

You are mistaken.

I have ALL of the polls. Wanna see them???



In fact, Quinnipiac has a slight Conservative mathematical bias, not a Liberal bias....

 

[Mad Scientist]

Sure, post them. Like I said, "if I'm not mistaken...".

 

[Statistikhengst]

Mad Scientist - here are ALL of the polls for 2008:

Statistikhengst s ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2015 and beyond FINAL POLL CONVERGENCE No. 12

There are 64 Quinnipiac state polls to be found there. None of the end polls showed McCain ahead in any Obama state. In fact, for a state like Colorado, you have to go all the way back to March to find McCain even slightly ahead.

Quinnipiac is a very, very reliable pollster.

Here are all of the polls for 2012, btw:

Google Sheets - create and edit spreadsheets online for free.

 

[Mad Scientist]

So that poll in March of 2008 was what I must have remembered. Thanks!

 

[Statistikhengst]

So that poll in March of 2008 was what I must have remembered. Thanks!

LOL!!!!

 

[pepperpot]

Ick...Run Liz Run!

 

[fmdog44]

Well the dems put in the first black president..........how did that work out? Now they want stick in what some medical apprentices call a "woman". Ask yourselves this question, what thinking person would want to serve as vice president under that old hag? Second, how long do you think her staff and cabinet members will stay? Any person that dreams of becoming president as long as she has is a catastrophe for world harmony. Her monumental ego will insult every world leader she faces and if you think Putin holds women in position of equality you and old Hillary are in for a hell of a ride. Let the rodeo begin.

 

[chikenwing]

Good for her,now when she doesn't even run let alone get the nod,what will the polls say?

 

[Statistikhengst]

Well the dems put in the first black president..........how did that work out? Now they want stick in what some medical apprentices call a "woman". Ask yourselves this question, what thinking person would want to serve as vice president under that old hag? Second, how long do you think her staff and cabinet members will stay? Any person that dreams of becoming president as long as she has is a catastrophe for world harmony. Her monumental ego will insult every world leader she faces and if you think Putin holds women in position of equality you and old Hillary are in for a hell of a ride. Let the rodeo begin.

You realize that your butthurt response has absolutely nothing to do with the data in the OP, right?

Do you lack the ability to actually concentrate on the CONTENT of an OP, or are you just plain old stupid?

I am betting that you are simply unbelievably and irreparably stupid. Yepp.