OK Joe --- I've watched your UCh lecture..
What did YOU get from it? What was missing from the discussion? Is it DEFINITIVE with respect to a realistic atmos. model?
No, it lays out the fundamental mechanics of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere. As I suggested in another post, if you wanted to go further, you'd need to be in a position to attend and understand these concepts in a class for science majors which would employ partial differential equations and matrix math. Then you'd know more about temperature gradients, atmospheric flow, etc. Going beyond that, you'd need an Earth simulation using supercomputers and increasingly sophisticated modeling.
Dont need any more math. Ive had more than most climate scientists. In fact, im up to par on EM Radiation and fields and waves. Ive also helped design supercomputers.
Couple of points on ur vid.
1 it doesnt address greenhouse gases. It focuses exclusively on co2 only. What wasnt shown is how more quickly the dip in the curve saturates in the presence of even moderate water vapor. Water vapor dominates and OVERLAPS much of the absorption lines of co2.
2 The analysis looks at the LOSS thru the atmos, rather than the W/m2 increase at the surface. Tho he implies all of the stored energy contributes to the heating, about half is returned to the surface and half EXITS to1 space. Because the gas layer radiates both up and down. Hope his model gets that part correct.
3 didya notice how fast the co2 saturates on its absorption power? From 1ppm to100ppm there was something like 28W/m2. Then from 100 to 1000ppm you only gotanother 20W/m2 or so. And thats without the huge masking of realistic h2o vapor content. Adding co2 for GW IS NOT A linear proposition.
Thanks for the link. But it really did not change any conclusions for me. Would like to drive his model toy and see what happens under more real conditions..
"1 it doesnt address greenhouse gases. It focuses exclusively on co2 only. What wasnt shown is how more quickly the dip in the curve saturates in the presence of even moderate water vapor. Water vapor dominates and OVERLAPS much of the absorption lines of co2."
CO2 is the GHG under study. It's what's changing. Science knows, even if you don't, that as soon as a CO2 molecule with bending kinetic energy absorbs a photon, it emits it. In all directions statistically. Now it's just like it was. Ready in case another photon comes along. Nothing is saturated.
"2 The analysis looks at the LOSS thru the atmos, rather than the W/m2 increase at the surface. Tho he implies all of the stored energy contributes to the heating, about half is returned to the surface and half EXITS to1 space. Because the gas layer radiates both up and down. Hope his model gets that part correct."
Let's say that the end of this particular lecture was the real end of the process and not just the end of this class with the expectation of having subsequent classes. That CO2 just absorbed and never emitted. The energy just went away to a rest home somewhere. We'd have AGW even then. Because energy balance between in and out was prevented, science is 100% sure that the imbalance would cause the earth to warm until balance was restored.
But we know that the CO2 didn't just swallow the energy. It re-emmitted it nanoseconds later. The half of the energy returned by CO2 emissions cooled the earth when it was emitted by earth trying to maintain energy balance. Now half comes back to re-warm the earth. It's like it never left.
So the net effect is that the more CO2 molecules there are in the atmosphere, the more outgoing long wave is prevented from leaving, the more incoming and outgoing are in a state of imbalance in favor of incoming, the more energy the earth has to absorb, which causes warming until outgoing matches incoming again.
"3 didya notice how fast the co2 saturates on its absorption power? From 1ppm to100ppm there was something like 28W/m2. Then from 100 to 1000ppm you only gotanother 20W/m2 or so. And thats without the huge masking of realistic h2o vapor content. Adding co2 for GW IS NOT A linear proposition."
Water vapor is not changing. CO2 is. Water vapor contributes constantly to the natural global warming that civilization adapted to over the last few millennia.
We are changing only CO2. That's the cause of bringing about a new climate that requires a new adaptation for civilization. That will cost trillions of dollars and is already costing hundreds of lives every year.