Will 2015 = 2008?

We're gettin' closer everyday.........
S&P 500 was flat for most of the beginning of the year but is up over 5% since you cashed out your 457 in April. Are you at all angry that you managed to miss out on most of this year's gains by yanking all your money in and out of the market based on your prediction?
 
Someone above said the wise businessman leaves something on the table.

Don't cut to close to the wind before and if you cash out.

If you are like Armand Hammer, who at 92, said, "He was in it for the long haul", the peace to you.
 
I mutha' F'in cannot believe that no one responded to this OP.

Beyond this, you disingenuous bastards that hold yourselves out as economic know-hows, fail to inform the investing plebes that consumer credit debt is also still through the roof.

(William the Wie, you used to post about the MACROECONOMIC picture, but don't anymore. I'm ready to unfriend you.)

Exactly Like 7 Years Ago? 2014 Is Turning Out To Be Eerily Similar To 2007 | Zero Hedge


This is a public service announcement going into 2015...........hedge accordingly...........I am!

^ it sort of seems so. the BIG Difference being in 2007' we were WAY BETTER OFF to Handle the Explosion than we are now. :(
 
I mutha' F'in cannot believe that no one responded to this OP.

Beyond this, you disingenuous bastards that hold yourselves out as economic know-hows, fail to inform the investing plebes that consumer credit debt is also still through the roof.

(William the Wie, you used to post about the MACROECONOMIC picture, but don't anymore. I'm ready to unfriend you.)

Exactly Like 7 Years Ago? 2014 Is Turning Out To Be Eerily Similar To 2007 | Zero Hedge


This is a public service announcement going into 2015...........hedge accordingly...........I am!


First time I have seen this post, mate.

I don't think I even understand what they are telling us/

ARe they suggesting that we're about to have another housing collapse?

Or that the prices of houses have hit an all time low and will recover?

Personally, I think housing isn't the Dog I think it's the tail of the dog.

It's INTEREST RATES that matter in this case and since they are artificially kept low, then all pricing is bogus.

What say ye, mate?
 
Someone above said the wise businessman leaves something on the table.

Don't cut to close to the wind before and if you cash out.
But you don't know when this impending crash will happen, right?

How is it possible to cut too close to an event with an undetermined date?
 
SteadyMercury, no, I don't know the date(s).

If we did, we all would be rich.

The pundits say the market buyouts by the feds will end by March.

I have sold somewhat early because I see some properties here in downtown that look like they may fall 15% of more in the next year.

But . . . that I was right last time does not mean I am this time.

And, yes, much of the assets are cash.

Another thing, the banks have grown quite accustomed to not have to give acceptable interest for them using your money to invest. They want to eat the cake and keep it, too.

We will see how that turns out next time.
 
If the fed continues on its schedule of 10 billion cuts to bond buying they should wrap up in Q4 this year, that'll be interesting I guess.

I just did a mid-year rebalance so scraped some stock chips off the table, also continued my slow change in asset allocation for impending retirement at end of this year, but the target it still over 60% stock funds so I'll be riding this train whether it hops the tracks or not.

Either way, good luck everyone.
 
Few would dispute the fact that when Fannie Mae collapsed it brought down the entire economic system worldwide. Who was in charge of Fannie Mae at the time? The powerful chairman of the House Banking committee had oversight responsibility for Fannie Mae and he told Americans that "Fannie was doing fine" when it was on the verge of collapse. Strangely enough the entity we have come to know as the "justice dept" has never asked Rep. Barney Frank the important questions and there is yet to be a Congressional hearing on the Fannie Mae collapse.



LOL

Parrots repeat what they hear. The RW media doesn't profit from educating their listeners. They know the money is in saying outrageous things that fit their listeners ideology. The listeners want to be outraged. The RW media produces the outrageous material. Truth not required. It's a symbiotic relationship.

BARNEY FRANK? MINORITY MEMBER OF THE GOP MAJORITY HOUSE 1995-2007? You talking the ACCOUNTING scandals of 2003-2004? lol


Q When did the Bush Mortgage Bubble start?

A The general timeframe is it started late 2004.

From Bush’s President’s Working Group on Financial Markets October 2008

“The Presidents Working Group’s March policy statement acknowledged that turmoil in financial markets clearly was triggered by a dramatic weakening of underwriting standards for U.S. subprime mortgages, beginning in late 2004 and extending into 2007.”



No, the GSEs Did Not Cause the Financial Meltdown (but thats just according to the data)

1. Private markets caused the shady mortgage boom: The first thing to point out is that the both the subprime mortgage boom and the subsequent crash are very much concentrated in the private market, especially the private label securitization channel (PLS) market. The Government-Sponsored Entities (GSEs, or Fannie and Freddie) were not behind them.

2. The government’s affordability mission didn’t cause the crisis


4. Conservatives sang a different tune before the crash: Conservative think tanks spent the 2000s saying the exact opposite of what they are saying now


Hey Mayor Bloomberg! No, the GSEs Did Not Cause the Financial Meltdown (but thats just according to the data) | The Big Picture


Examining the big lie: How the facts of the economic crisis stack up

The boom and bust was global. Proponents of the Big Lie ignore the worldwide nature of the housing boom and bust.


A McKinsey Global Institute report noted “from 2000 through 2007, a remarkable run-up in global home prices occurred.” It is highly unlikely that a simultaneous boom and bust everywhere else in the world was caused by one set of factors (ultra-low rates, securitized AAA-rated subprime, derivatives) but had a different set of causes in the United States. Indeed, this might be the biggest obstacle to pushing the false narrative.

Examining the big lie: How the facts of the economic crisis stack up | The Big Picture


GROW A BRAIN
 
Few would dispute the fact that when Fannie Mae collapsed it brought down the entire economic system worldwide. Who was in charge of Fannie Mae at the time? The powerful chairman of the House Banking committee had oversight responsibility for Fannie Mae and he told Americans that "Fannie was doing fine" when it was on the verge of collapse. Strangely enough the entity we have come to know as the "justice dept" has never asked Rep. Barney Frank the important questions and there is yet to be a Congressional hearing on the Fannie Mae collapse.
We need prosecutions of Wall Street and congress similar to the Keating Five during the Savings and Loan Crisis. But we will never see it if we depend on elected Republicans AND Democrats to investigate.





hy Prosecutors Don't Go After Wall Street

BUSH GAVE A GET OUT OF JAIL FREE CARD SUMMER 2008

Why Prosecutors Don't Go After Wall Street : NPR

“When regulators don’t believe in regulation and don’t get what is going on at the companies they oversee, there can be no major white-collar crime prosecutions,”...“If they don’t understand what we call collective embezzlement, where people are literally looting their own firms, then it’s impossible to bring cases.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/14/business/14prosecute.html?pagewanted=all

The FBI correctly identified the epidemic of mortgage control fraud at such an early point that the financial crisis could have been averted had the Bush administration acted with even minimal competence.
'
William K. Black: The Two Documents Everyone Should Read to Better Understand the Crisis

Dubya was warned by the FBI of an "epidemic" of mortgage fraud in 2004. He gave them less resources.

FBI saw threat of loan crisis - Los Angeles Times

Shockingly, the FBI clearly makes the case for the need to combat mortgage fraud in 2005, the height of the housing crisis:

Financial Crimes Report to the Public 2005

FBI ? Financial Crimes Report 2005

The Bush Rubber Stamp Congress ignored the obvious and extremely detailed and well reported crime spree by the FBI.

THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION and CONGRESS stripped the White Collar Crime divisions of money and manpower.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/19/washington/19fbi.html?pagewanted=all

DUBYA FOUGHT ALL 50 STATE AG'S IN 2003, INVOKING A CIVIL WAR ERA RULE SAYING FEDS RULE ON "PREDATORY" LENDERS!
 
Few would dispute the fact that when Fannie Mae collapsed it brought down the entire economic system worldwide. Who was in charge of Fannie Mae at the time? The powerful chairman of the House Banking committee had oversight responsibility for Fannie Mae and he told Americans that "Fannie was doing fine" when it was on the verge of collapse. Strangely enough the entity we have come to know as the "justice dept" has never asked Rep. Barney Frank the important questions and there is yet to be a Congressional hearing on the Fannie Mae collapse.
We need prosecutions of Wall Street and congress similar to the Keating Five during the Savings and Loan Crisis. But we will never see it if we depend on elected Republicans AND Democrats to investigate.

The "Keating Five" got away with it because they were all democrats except for a single republican, John McCain. Wall Street ain't your enemy. They have to live within a nightmare of federal regulations. The people who enforce the regulations bear the responsibility for the laws they create. Barney Frank told America that Fannie Mae "was doing fine" when it was on the verge of collapse and nobody in congress or the media ever asked him what the hell he was doing.



Q When did the Bush Mortgage Bubble start?

A The general timeframe is it started late 2004.

From Bush’s President’s Working Group on Financial Markets October 2008

“The Presidents Working Group’s March policy statement acknowledged that turmoil in financial markets clearly was triggered by a dramatic weakening of underwriting standards for U.S. subprime mortgages, beginning in late 2004 and extending into 2007.”



Right-wingers Want To Erase How George Bush's "Homeowner Society" Helped Cause The Economic Collapse

2004 Republican Convention:

Another priority for a new term is to build an ownership society, because ownership brings security and dignity and independence.
...

Thanks to our policies, home ownership in America is at an all- time high.

(APPLAUSE)

Tonight we set a new goal: 7 million more affordable homes in the next 10 years, so more American families will be able to open the door and say, "Welcome to my home."



One president controlled the regulators that not only let banks stop checking income but cheered them on. And as president Bush could enact the very policies that caused the Bush Mortgage Bubble and he did. And his party controlled congress.



June 17, 2004

(CNN/Money) - Home builders, realtors and others are preparing to fight a Bush administration plan that would require Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to increase financing of homes for low-income people, a home builder group said Thursday


Home builders fight Bush's low-income housing - Jun. 17, 2004


Fannie, Freddie to Suffer Under New Rule, Frank Says

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would suffer financially under a Bush administration requirement that they channel more mortgage financing to people with low incomes, said the senior Democrat on a congressional panel that sets regulations for the companies.


So if your narrative is "GSEs are to blame" then you have to blame bush


http://democrats.financialservices....s/112/06-17-04-new-Fannie-goals-Bloomberg.pdf




Bush forced Freddie and Fannie to purchase more low income home loans, $440 billion in MBSs and then reversed the Clinton rule that actually reigned in Freddie and Fannie



"(In 2000, CLINTON) HUD restricted Freddie and Fannie, saying it would not credit them for loans they purchased that had abusively high costs or that were granted without regard to the borrower's ability to repay."

How HUD Mortgage Policy Fed The Crisis

"In 2004 (BUSH), the 2000 rules were dropped and high‐risk loans were again counted toward affordable housing goals."



http://business.gwu.edu/creua/research-papers/files/fannie-freddie.pdf
 
Few would dispute the fact that when Fannie Mae collapsed it brought down the entire economic system worldwide. Who was in charge of Fannie Mae at the time? The powerful chairman of the House Banking committee had oversight responsibility for Fannie Mae and he told Americans that "Fannie was doing fine" when it was on the verge of collapse. Strangely enough the entity we have come to know as the "justice dept" has never asked Rep. Barney Frank the important questions and there is yet to be a Congressional hearing on the Fannie Mae collapse.

Because Frank was not the top dog from 1994 to 2006.

The house was GOP.

Are we to assume that Barney Frank didn't have a clue when he became House Banking Chairman and Fannie Mae was his responsibility? There is no record that he ever alerted the freaking Country that Fannie was in trouble, as a matter of fact he told America that Fannie was solvent. Was he stupid or a political dirty trickster? Nobody ever asked him.




"Bush’s Working Group on Financial Markets October 2008

The Presidents Working Group’s March policy statement acknowledged that turmoil in financial markets clearly was triggered by a dramatic weakening of underwriting standards for U.S. subprime mortgages, beginning in late 2004 and extending into 2007. "

http://www.treasury.gov/resource-cen...s update.pdf

the regulators report to Bush and he encouraged, funded and protected lower lending standards.



Fannie, Freddie to Suffer Under New Rule, Frank Says

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would suffer financially under a Bush administration requirement that they channel more mortgage financing to people with low incomes, said the senior Democrat on a congressional panel that sets regulations for the companies.


So if your narrative is "GSEs are to blame" then you have to blame bush


http://democrats.financialservices....s/112/06-17-04-new-Fannie-goals-Bloomberg.pdf
 
Few would dispute the fact that when Fannie Mae collapsed it brought down the entire economic system worldwide. Who was in charge of Fannie Mae at the time? The powerful chairman of the House Banking committee had oversight responsibility for Fannie Mae and he told Americans that "Fannie was doing fine" when it was on the verge of collapse. Strangely enough the entity we have come to know as the "justice dept" has never asked Rep. Barney Frank the important questions and there is yet to be a Congressional hearing on the Fannie Mae collapse.
We need prosecutions of Wall Street and congress similar to the Keating Five during the Savings and Loan Crisis. But we will never see it if we depend on elected Republicans AND Democrats to investigate.

The "Keating Five" got away with it because they were all democrats except for a single republican, John McCain. Wall Street ain't your enemy. They have to live within a nightmare of federal regulations. The people who enforce the regulations bear the responsibility for the laws they create. Barney Frank told America that Fannie Mae "was doing fine" when it was on the verge of collapse and nobody in congress or the media ever asked him what the hell he was doing.
Wall Street lawyers (lobbyists) write the regulations.
They bribe elected Republicans AND Democrats AND assorted regulators to conceal the threats Wall Street poses to 90% of Americans; government is the shadow big business casts on society. If we start filling US prisons with the richest of the 1%, things will change for the better.
 
Because Frank was not the top dog from 1994 to 2006.

The house was GOP.

Are we to assume that Barney Frank didn't have a clue when he became House Banking Chairman and Fannie Mae was his responsibility? There is no record that he ever alerted the freaking Country that Fannie was in trouble, as a matter of fact he told America that Fannie was solvent. Was he stupid or a political dirty trickster? Nobody ever asked him.




"Bush’s Working Group on Financial Markets October 2008

The Presidents Working Group’s March policy statement acknowledged that turmoil in financial markets clearly was triggered by a dramatic weakening of underwriting standards for U.S. subprime mortgages, beginning in late 2004 and extending into 2007. "

http://www.treasury.gov/resource-cen...s update.pdf

the regulators report to Bush and he encouraged, funded and protected lower lending standards.



Fannie, Freddie to Suffer Under New Rule, Frank Says

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would suffer financially under a Bush administration requirement that they channel more mortgage financing to people with low incomes, said the senior Democrat on a congressional panel that sets regulations for the companies.


So if your narrative is "GSEs are to blame" then you have to blame bush


http://democrats.financialservices....s/112/06-17-04-new-Fannie-goals-Bloomberg.pdf
"First, it’s true that Frank was hardly Fannie and Freddie’s biggest critic. Nor did he spot the housing bubble. Back in 2003, as the Examiner’s Philip Klein points out, Frank said that the government-sponsored entities were not in any sort of crisis. 'The more people exaggerate these problems,' Frank told the New York Times, 'the more pressure there is on these companies, the less we will see in terms of affordable housing.'

"Not the most prescient of comments. (Note, however, that in 2003, Fannie and Freddie weren’t yet heavily involved in the mortgage-backed security market.

"They were actually losing market share to private banks, as the chart on right from researchers at the University of North Carolina shows.)"

Barney Frank didn?t cause the housing crisis - The Washington Post
 
Are we to assume that Barney Frank didn't have a clue when he became House Banking Chairman and Fannie Mae was his responsibility? There is no record that he ever alerted the freaking Country that Fannie was in trouble, as a matter of fact he told America that Fannie was solvent. Was he stupid or a political dirty trickster? Nobody ever asked him.




"Bush’s Working Group on Financial Markets October 2008

The Presidents Working Group’s March policy statement acknowledged that turmoil in financial markets clearly was triggered by a dramatic weakening of underwriting standards for U.S. subprime mortgages, beginning in late 2004 and extending into 2007. "

http://www.treasury.gov/resource-cen...s update.pdf

the regulators report to Bush and he encouraged, funded and protected lower lending standards.



Fannie, Freddie to Suffer Under New Rule, Frank Says

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would suffer financially under a Bush administration requirement that they channel more mortgage financing to people with low incomes, said the senior Democrat on a congressional panel that sets regulations for the companies.


So if your narrative is "GSEs are to blame" then you have to blame bush


http://democrats.financialservices....s/112/06-17-04-new-Fannie-goals-Bloomberg.pdf
"First, it’s true that Frank was hardly Fannie and Freddie’s biggest critic. Nor did he spot the housing bubble. Back in 2003, as the Examiner’s Philip Klein points out, Frank said that the government-sponsored entities were not in any sort of crisis. 'The more people exaggerate these problems,' Frank told the New York Times, 'the more pressure there is on these companies, the less we will see in terms of affordable housing.'

"Not the most prescient of comments. (Note, however, that in 2003, Fannie and Freddie weren’t yet heavily involved in the mortgage-backed security market.

"They were actually losing market share to private banks, as the chart on right from researchers at the University of North Carolina shows.)"

Barney Frank didn?t cause the housing crisis - The Washington Post




Barney Frank was MINORITY member of the GOP Majority House 1995-Jan 2007, he could run nekkid through the halls and not stop one thing the GOP wanted to do

GSE's were regulated by the EXECUTIVE branch


The world wide credit bubble and bust had zero to do with F/F (GSE's)



In an op-ed piece in the Wall Street Journal, Lawrence B. Lindsey, a former economic adviser to President George W. Bush, wrote that Frank "is the only politician I know who has argued that we needed tighter rules that intentionally produce fewer homeowners and more renters."
 
We're gettin' closer everyday.........
S&P 500 was flat for most of the beginning of the year but is up over 5% since you cashed out your 457 in April. Are you at all angry that you managed to miss out on most of this year's gains by yanking all your money in and out of the market based on your prediction?


Haven't cashed yet. Was going to this next week (July). Since the mid-terms are coming up and all kinds of free shit is gonna be promised by both parties, I'm hanging in there until the run-up to the elections as the market should at least hold steady til then.
 
Few would dispute the fact that when Fannie Mae collapsed it brought down the entire economic system worldwide. Who was in charge of Fannie Mae at the time? The powerful chairman of the House Banking committee had oversight responsibility for Fannie Mae and he told Americans that "Fannie was doing fine" when it was on the verge of collapse. Strangely enough the entity we have come to know as the "justice dept" has never asked Rep. Barney Frank the important questions and there is yet to be a Congressional hearing on the Fannie Mae collapse.

I'll wait patiently for your response to your right wing crap on F/F....
 
I hope I'm smarter this time then in 2008..
I rode it out and it took 5 years to recover all I lost in my IRA account.
I will sell everything and move it to a cash position.I'm retiring hopefully in 5 years.I can't take
another hit like that again....

As soon as the Fed begins to make noise that they will stop propping up the Stock market I will
dump it all.
I made a killing in 2009 by simply doubling down on My weekly investment as the market hit the bottom.

The only regret I have is that I chickened out of silver at $9 and GM at $1.05.

Silver topped out at 45 and GM topped out at 38 in January of 2011...

Let Me correct that. GM in June of 2009 was at 0.75..and by December was at 34
 
Last edited:
Few would dispute the fact that when Fannie Mae collapsed it brought down the entire economic system worldwide. Who was in charge of Fannie Mae at the time? The powerful chairman of the House Banking committee had oversight responsibility for Fannie Mae and he told Americans that "Fannie was doing fine" when it was on the verge of collapse. Strangely enough the entity we have come to know as the "justice dept" has never asked Rep. Barney Frank the important questions and there is yet to be a Congressional hearing on the Fannie Mae collapse.

I'll wait patiently for your response to your right wing crap on F/F....

So the Democrats are the tightwads and the Republicans are the big spenders (especially the Tea Party)? Hmm…

Meanwhile (back on Earth) the entire push behind the CRA was to increase home ownership among minorities (who more often had lower credit scores). This extra purchasing power at the lower end boosted all real estate into an overvalued bubble. Bush could have done more to slow this down, but all of his critics would have then labeled him a racist. Sound familiar?
 
Few would dispute the fact that when Fannie Mae collapsed it brought down the entire economic system worldwide. Who was in charge of Fannie Mae at the time? The powerful chairman of the House Banking committee had oversight responsibility for Fannie Mae and he told Americans that "Fannie was doing fine" when it was on the verge of collapse. Strangely enough the entity we have come to know as the "justice dept" has never asked Rep. Barney Frank the important questions and there is yet to be a Congressional hearing on the Fannie Mae collapse.

I'll wait patiently for your response to your right wing crap on F/F....

So the Democrats are the tightwads and the Republicans are the big spenders (especially the Tea Party)? Hmm…

Meanwhile (back on Earth) the entire push behind the CRA was to increase home ownership among minorities (who more often had lower credit scores). This extra purchasing power at the lower end boosted all real estate into an overvalued bubble. Bush could have done more to slow this down, but all of his critics would have then labeled him a racist. Sound familiar?



Got it, you'll just double down on the right wing nonsense, lol

Private sector loans, not Fannie or Freddie, triggered crisis


The "turmoil in financial markets clearly was triggered by a dramatic weakening of underwriting standards for U.S. subprime mortgages, beginning in late 2004 and extending into 2007," the President's Working Group on Financial Markets

Private sector loans, not Fannie or Freddie, triggered crisis | Economics | McClatchy DC



Most subprime lenders weren't subject to federal lending law


Community Reinvestment Act, blamed for home market crash, didn't apply to the banks that did the most lending.


BANKSTER:

Bob Davis, executive vice president of the American Bankers Association, which lobbies Congress to streamline community reinvestment rules, said "it just isn't credible" to blame the law CRA for the crisis.

"Institutions that are subject to CRA - that is, banks and savings asociations - were largely not involved in subprime lending," Davis said. "The bulk of the loans came through a channel that was not subject to CRA."

Most subprime lenders weren't subject to federal lending law - The Orange County Register


Nobody forced the big five investment banks to do what they did; they were not subject to CRA or other regulations common to depository banks. In fact, they mainly bought and sold loans rather than originate them. They did it because they thought they would make money.


The historical "originate and hold" mortgage model was replaced with the "originate and distribute" model. Incentives were such that you could get paid just to originate and sell the mortgages down the pipeline, passing the risk along. The big investment banks simply connected the investors to the originators, helped by the AAA ratings.


CRA? LOL



Given CEOs' proclivity for government bashing, any lenders being driven to write bad loans by the CRA would have been on CNBC screaming at the top of their lungs.

But that dog that didn't bark.


Examining the big lie: How the facts of the economic crisis stack up


The boom and bust was global. Proponents of the Big Lie ignore the worldwide nature of the housing boom and bust.

Sept09_CF1.jpg




A McKinsey Global Institute report noted “from 2000 through 2007, a remarkable run-up in global home prices occurred.” It is highly unlikely that a simultaneous boom and bust everywhere else in the world was caused by one set of factors (ultra-low rates, securitized AAA-rated subprime, derivatives) but had a different set of causes in the United States. Indeed, this might be the biggest obstacle to pushing the false narrative




Nonbank mortgage underwriting exploded from 2001 to 2007, along with the private label securitization market, which eclipsed Fannie and Freddie during the boom.


Private lenders not subject to congressional regulations collapsed lending standards

Examining the big lie: How the facts of the economic crisis stack up | The Big Picture


Right-wingers Want To Erase How George Bush's "Homeowner Society" Helped Cause The Economic Collapse

DUBYA FOUGHT ALL 50 STATE AG'S IN 2003, INVOKING A CIVIL WAR ERA RULE SAYING FEDS RULE ON "PREDATORY" LENDERS!

Dubya was warned by the FBI of an "epidemic" of mortgage fraud in 2004. He gave them less resources. Later in 2004 Dubya allowed the leverage rules to go from 12-1 to 33-1 which flooded the market with cheap money!



Bush drive for home ownership fueled housing bubble


He insisted that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac meet ambitious new goals for low-income lending.

Concerned that down payments were a barrier, Bush persuaded Congress to spend as much as $200 million a year to help first-time buyers with down payments and closing costs.

And he pushed to allow first-time buyers to qualify for government insured mortgages with no money down


ANYTHING ELSE BUBBA?
 

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