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The capital flight from China and the EZ is somewhat large and likely to get larger. Grexit or a major economic collapse in China could lead to a 3,000+ S&P for no better reason than risk off.Some of the rather bizarre market action recently has me wondering if we are in the middle of a bear market rally, and if so how violently it might end. Several stocks on an uptrend appear fundamentally unstable. We have witnessed massive moves in several speculative stocks like Tesla and Netflix that are hard to defend by any other reasoning than shorts being squeezed out of the market.
The higher the market goes the more vulnerable it becomes to a major collapse and sudden downward price move.A lack of short positions will bode poorly for the market if it falls rapidly because in such a situation as shorts take profit and buy back their positions they act as a floor under the market giving it support. The article below delves into how this could be a problem going forward.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2015/07/is-this-bear-market-rally.html
The capital flight from China and the EZ is somewhat large and likely to get larger. Grexit or a major economic collapse in China could lead to a 3,000+ S&P for no better reason than risk off.Some of the rather bizarre market action recently has me wondering if we are in the middle of a bear market rally, and if so how violently it might end. Several stocks on an uptrend appear fundamentally unstable. We have witnessed massive moves in several speculative stocks like Tesla and Netflix that are hard to defend by any other reasoning than shorts being squeezed out of the market.
The higher the market goes the more vulnerable it becomes to a major collapse and sudden downward price move.A lack of short positions will bode poorly for the market if it falls rapidly because in such a situation as shorts take profit and buy back their positions they act as a floor under the market giving it support. The article below delves into how this could be a problem going forward.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2015/07/is-this-bear-market-rally.html
The key word is seem:The capital flight from China and the EZ is somewhat large and likely to get larger. Grexit or a major economic collapse in China could lead to a 3,000+ S&P for no better reason than risk off.Some of the rather bizarre market action recently has me wondering if we are in the middle of a bear market rally, and if so how violently it might end. Several stocks on an uptrend appear fundamentally unstable. We have witnessed massive moves in several speculative stocks like Tesla and Netflix that are hard to defend by any other reasoning than shorts being squeezed out of the market.
The higher the market goes the more vulnerable it becomes to a major collapse and sudden downward price move.A lack of short positions will bode poorly for the market if it falls rapidly because in such a situation as shorts take profit and buy back their positions they act as a floor under the market giving it support. The article below delves into how this could be a problem going forward.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2015/07/is-this-bear-market-rally.html
nice theory but these days central bankers seem to know how to prevent runs
The capital flight from China and the EZ is somewhat large and likely to get larger. Grexit or a major economic collapse in China could lead to a 3,000+ S&P for no better reason than risk off.Some of the rather bizarre market action recently has me wondering if we are in the middle of a bear market rally, and if so how violently it might end. Several stocks on an uptrend appear fundamentally unstable. We have witnessed massive moves in several speculative stocks like Tesla and Netflix that are hard to defend by any other reasoning than shorts being squeezed out of the market.
The higher the market goes the more vulnerable it becomes to a major collapse and sudden downward price move.A lack of short positions will bode poorly for the market if it falls rapidly because in such a situation as shorts take profit and buy back their positions they act as a floor under the market giving it support. The article below delves into how this could be a problem going forward.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2015/07/is-this-bear-market-rally.html
nice theory but these days central bankers seem to know how to prevent runs
The capital flight from China and the EZ is somewhat large and likely to get larger. Grexit or a major economic collapse in China could lead to a 3,000+ S&P for no better reason than risk off.Some of the rather bizarre market action recently has me wondering if we are in the middle of a bear market rally, and if so how violently it might end. Several stocks on an uptrend appear fundamentally unstable. We have witnessed massive moves in several speculative stocks like Tesla and Netflix that are hard to defend by any other reasoning than shorts being squeezed out of the market.
The higher the market goes the more vulnerable it becomes to a major collapse and sudden downward price move.A lack of short positions will bode poorly for the market if it falls rapidly because in such a situation as shorts take profit and buy back their positions they act as a floor under the market giving it support. The article below delves into how this could be a problem going forward.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2015/07/is-this-bear-market-rally.html
nice theory but these days central bankers seem to know how to prevent runs
You realize the stock market has dropped about 11% right?If they are 2015 could be worse than 2008. (maybe I was wrong using the term 'equal' in my thread title).
well, China has been testing it for the last 20 years and so far so good. I do agree that we may be in unknown territory now. If China can stabilize itself through this period I cant imagine what else can go wrong after that.we are about to test that statement, soon.
Worse yet African workers are underbidding Asian workers because Chinese infrastructure projects made it possible. I was amazed when I tried Kiva and found out that the most common loan applications in Africa were grocery store and bottling company expansions. Subsaharan Africa is the fastest growing region of the world and has been for several years. This is at least twofer maybe more.
China locked in what is now high priced oil by building roads, rails, pipelines and improved/built sea and air ports. All of that can be used to ship more than resources that China is no longer buying.
The BRICS are falling down. According to China they are crashing because:
The overseas Chinese who were brought in to straighten out their market in 2008 have mostly left because it was all for show.
The labor force fraction has been shrinking since @ 2010 due to the 60 year retirement, 55 for women and the one child policy which has only recently been loosened. Other factors such as children born overseas with non-Chinese citizenship do not count but do act as anchor babies for capital flight/brain drain, later school leaving and a lack of women add to the problem. Most sources date this shrinkage later by assuming a later retirement age of 65 and an earlier school leaving of 16.
Wages and debt have both been increasing faster than economic growth.
Similar problems exist in Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa. Brazil's retirement age can be and usually is earlier than China's. Russia and India have greater problems with brain drain than China. South African wage increases were, until the commodity crash, even more wacko than Chinese wages. These rising stars simply priced themselves out of most markets and Africa is picking up the slack.
2015 does not look like 2008 given that markets are stable and GDP is +3.7%.I was referring to China not the US.
This is a public service announcement going into 2015...........hedge accordingly...........I am!
Oh good I'll sell my house and bet on it because some internet fool says its going to happen but has to reason to believe it is going to happen.We are going into a global economic meltdown.
