CDZ White Collar Jobs at Risk in Robotics Revolution NOW!

[320 Years of History]

I doubt there will come a time when human labor is 100% obsolete.

So 85% is AOK then?

I don't see computers/automated systems:

• Identifying what new human needs and desires will come about.
• Determining how to express emotion via art.
• Inventing new goals for society to achieve.

This is merely a matter of programming in advanced AI. Number 1 and 2 are already being done by AI today.

Blue:
Maybe. I don't know. I don't need to know. What I need to know is what things computers/AI cannot do as well as a human can and develop my proficiency at doing one or more of those things such that others will pay for my doing it/them.

Red:
Let's say I want and am willing to pay for digital escargot forks. Are your really telling me that AIs are predicting that and undertaking to build them?

Let's say I want a piece of art that depicts some abstract concept. How is an AI going to produce that to my satisfaction?

Even if some AI can do those things, by your own remarks, the thing people then need to do is #3.

 

[JimBowie1958]

I think you've been viewing this matter of technological advances, specifically automation, making humans obsolete. That's just not so. It's the various types of labor that have become obsolete.

It isnt a case of horse buggy whips being replaced by automobiles, as Rush so famously joked about, it is now a case of cheap black market labor now, and robotic labor replacing legal human labor down the not-so-distant road.

That is what makes this particular Industrial Revolution so potentially catastrophic.

And the oligarchs, without further need for the Middle Class and the vast majority of the poor class, will do what with us? Feed, house, clothe and provide us with medicine for ever? roflmao, history says no.

This coming crisis needs to be intelligently and humanely managed out of the gate and not left to the tender mercies of the descendants of those who sacked most of Europe not so long ago.

The economic principles are the same. All that's different is that what's becoming obsolete is certain services rather than certain goods. Even considering your "horse and buggy" example, if one was a buggy-maker and one was only willing to make buggies, one's buggy-making effort, one's labor, became obsolete. If, on the other hand, one learned how to build automobiles, one could find a job building vehicles.

Now, if one, after learning how to build cars, or let's say car transmissions, one figured out a way to make a transmission automatically shift among the gears, one has innovated and created something that others want and will pay for. Now, one has devised a way to support oneself through innovation. After all, one need not invent the "mousetrap;" merely inventing a better one will do.

And what you dont seem to be grasping is that Advanced 'Strong' AI will be able to do all that, and 85% of human beings will not have full time work available to them no matter how innovative they might plausibly be.

And that is a problem for those of us with a moral compass.

 

[JimBowie1958]

I doubt there will come a time when human labor is 100% obsolete.

So 85% is AOK then?

I don't see computers/automated systems:

• Identifying what new human needs and desires will come about.
• Determining how to express emotion via art.
• Inventing new goals for society to achieve.

This is merely a matter of programming in advanced AI. Number 1 and 2 are already being done by AI today.

Blue:
Maybe. I don't know. I don't need to know. What I need to know is what things computers/AI cannot do as well as a human can and develop my proficiency at doing one or more of those things such that others will pay for my doing it/them.

Red:
Let's say I want and am willing to pay for digital escargot forks. Are your really telling me that AIs are predicting that and undertaking to build them?

Let's say I want a piece of art that depicts some abstract concept. How is an AI going to produce that to my satisfaction?

Even if some AI can do those things, by your own remarks, the thing people then need to do is #3.

Advanced 'Strong' AI will be able to do all of that, yes, it will. You cant grasp how that is possible, I get that, but that doesnt make it any less true.

 

[320 Years of History]

I think you've been viewing this matter of technological advances, specifically automation, making humans obsolete. That's just not so. It's the various types of labor that have become obsolete.

It isnt a case of horse buggy whips being replaced by automobiles, as Rush so famously joked about, it is now a case of cheap black market labor now, and robotic labor replacing legal human labor down the not-so-distant road.

That is what makes this particular Industrial Revolution so potentially catastrophic.

And the oligarchs, without further need for the Middle Class and the vast majority of the poor class, will do what with us? Feed, house, clothe and provide us with medicine for ever? roflmao, history says no.

This coming crisis needs to be intelligently and humanely managed out of the gate and not left to the tender mercies of the descendants of those who sacked most of Europe not so long ago.

The economic principles are the same. All that's different is that what's becoming obsolete is certain services rather than certain goods. Even considering your "horse and buggy" example, if one was a buggy-maker and one was only willing to make buggies, one's buggy-making effort, one's labor, became obsolete. If, on the other hand, one learned how to build automobiles, one could find a job building vehicles.

Now, if one, after learning how to build cars, or let's say car transmissions, one figured out a way to make a transmission automatically shift among the gears, one has innovated and created something that others want and will pay for. Now, one has devised a way to support oneself through innovation. After all, one need not invent the "mousetrap;" merely inventing a better one will do.

And what you dont seem to be grasping is that Advanced 'Strong' AI will be able to do all that, and 85% of human beings will not have full time work available to them no matter how innovative they might plausibly be.

And that is a problem for those of us with a moral compass.

I doubt there will come a time when human labor is 100% obsolete.

So 85% is AOK then?

I don't see computers/automated systems:

• Identifying what new human needs and desires will come about.
• Determining how to express emotion via art.
• Inventing new goals for society to achieve.

This is merely a matter of programming in advanced AI. Number 1 and 2 are already being done by AI today.

Blue:
Maybe. I don't know. I don't need to know. What I need to know is what things computers/AI cannot do as well as a human can and develop my proficiency at doing one or more of those things such that others will pay for my doing it/them.

Red:
Let's say I want and am willing to pay for digital escargot forks. Are your really telling me that AIs are predicting that and undertaking to build them?

Let's say I want a piece of art that depicts some abstract concept. How is an AI going to produce that to my satisfaction?

Even if some AI can do those things, by your own remarks, the thing people then need to do is #3.

Advanced 'Strong' AI will be able to do all of that, yes, it will. You cant grasp how that is possible, I get that, but that doesnt make it any less true.

Let's say "Strong AI" will be able to do all that. When?

 

[Fair&Balanced]

This is a subject that both sides have just tried to make much simpler than it actually is.

The left says "free college for everyone will fix the problem"

the right says "fuck everyone, they need to better themselves"

and here we are...

The realities are much more complex.

Here's one reality ignored by the left and the right.

Not everyone is suited for college. Allowing them to attend would be a complete waste of resources. Now if some private school wants to accept those kids and those kids want to pay their own way, that's fine, but public school seats and public funds should not be wasted on such people.

The left needs to stop saying "everyone deserves a college education" because that isn't true and the right needs to stop saying "those people should better themselves" because not only is that simplistic, and not only are some people just incapable of bettering themselves through education, BUT if every person in America had a PhD, you would STILL have Doctors working at fast food restaurants. That is called reality.


PLUS there is the little fact that a UBI would be CHEAPER than the current welfare system.

 

[Holos]

This is a subject that both sides have just tried to make much simpler than it actually is.

The left says "free college for everyone will fix the problem"

the right says "fuck everyone, they need to better themselves"

and here we are...

The realities are much more complex.

Here's one reality ignored by the left and the right.

Not everyone is suited for college. Allowing them to attend would be a complete waste of resources. Now if some private school wants to accept those kids and those kids want to pay their own way, that's fine, but public school seats and public funds should not be wasted on such people.

The left needs to stop saying "everyone deserves a college education" because that isn't true and the right needs to stop saying "those people should better themselves" because not only is that simplistic, and not only are some people just incapable of bettering themselves through education, BUT if every person in America had a PhD, you would STILL have Doctors working at fast food restaurants. That is called reality.


PLUS there is the little fact that a UBI would be CHEAPER than the current welfare system.

Thank you, I was extremely confused by the continuous and inefficient arguments between left and right. Always making the problem be concerning everyone, but making the challenge for the solution the other party, and not our joined citizenship.

"White collar workers have the total freedom to ignore the issue and make themselves delusional in believing their superiority over the entire economy, if they happen to be so stupid we must allow it, especially if they are from the other party."

That perspective does not seem political at all, although it may have tattooed fingers or blue, white or red index aim.

Would you be able to refer me to a website in which I may be able to comprehend the issue closer to how you have explained?

I am somewhat wasted in attempting to comprehend the problem here of the economy on 7 pages of "wittiness".

 

[320 Years of History]

This is a subject that both sides have just tried to make much simpler than it actually is.

The left says "free college for everyone will fix the problem"

the right says "fuck everyone, they need to better themselves"

and here we are...

The realities are much more complex.

Here's one reality ignored by the left and the right.

Not everyone is suited for college. Allowing them to attend would be a complete waste of resources. Now if some private school wants to accept those kids and those kids want to pay their own way, that's fine, but public school seats and public funds should not be wasted on such people.

The left needs to stop saying "everyone deserves a college education" because that isn't true and the right needs to stop saying "those people should better themselves" because not only is that simplistic, and not only are some people just incapable of bettering themselves through education, BUT if every person in America had a PhD, you would STILL have Doctors working at fast food restaurants. That is called reality.


PLUS there is the little fact that a UBI would be CHEAPER than the current welfare system.

Red:
Yes, well, there was a time when my kids didn't think they were "suited for" college or work. Then they found out that they by and large won't gain access to the financial resources that have been set aside for them until they are 35, and lo and behold, they determined they were "suited for" both college and work. LOL You'd be surprised at what folks become "suited for" once they figure out the alternative to not being "suited for" it. LOL

 

[boedicca]

For a dystopian POV, armed drones replacing guns will make most of humanity obsolete. And this piece also explains why the Elites are always trying to grab the guns away from the Unwashed Masses.


The human race is on the brink of momentous and dire change. It is a change that potentially smashes our institutions and warps our society beyond recognition. It is also a change to which almost no one is paying attention. I’m talking about the coming obsolescence of the gun-wielding human infantryman as a weapon of war. Or to put it another way: the end of the Age of the Gun.

You may not even realize you have been, indeed, living in the Age of the Gun because it’s been centuries since that age began. But imagine yourself back in 1400. In that century (and the 10 centuries before it), the battlefield was ruled not by the infantryman, but by the horse archer—a warrior-nobleman who had spent his whole life training in the ways of war. Imagine that guy’s surprise when he was shot off his horse by a poor no-count farmer armed with a long metal tube and just two weeks’ worth of training. Just a regular guy with a gun.

That day was the end of the Middle Ages and the beginning of modernity. For centuries after that fateful day, gun-toting infantry ruled the battlefield. Military success depended more and more on being able to motivate large groups of (gun-wielding) humans, instead of on winning the loyalty of the highly trained warrior-noblemen. But sometime in the near future, the autonomous, weaponized drone may replace the human infantryman as the dominant battlefield technology. And as always, that shift in military technology will cause huge social upheaval.

(snip)

But another turning point in the history of humankind may be on the horizon. Continuing progress in automation, especially continued cost drops, may mean that someday soon, autonomous drone militaries become cheaper than infantry at any scale.

(snip)

We can carry this dystopian thought exercise through to its ultimate conclusion. Imagine a world where gated communities have become self-contained cantonments, inside of which live the beautiful, rich, Robot Lords, served by cheap robot employees, guarded by cheap robot armies. Outside the gates, a teeming, ragged mass of lumpen humanity teeters on the edge of starvation. They can’t farm the land or mine for minerals, because the invincible robot swarms guard all the farms and mines. Their only hope is to catch the attention of the Robot Lords inside the cantonments, either by having enough rare talent to be admitted as a Robot Lord, or by becoming a novelty slave for a little while.

This sounds like nothing more than a fun science fiction story, but why shouldn’t this happen? Human civilization was somewhat like this for most of our history—aristocrats feasting in their manor houses, half-starved peasants toiling in the fields. What liberated us? It might have been the printing press, or capitalism, or the sailing ship. But it might have been the gun. And if it was the gun that liberated us, then we should be very worried. Because when the Age of the Gun ends, the age of freedom and dignity and equality that much of humanity now enjoys may turn out to have been a bizarre, temporary aberration.

Drones will cause an upheaval of society like we haven’t seen in 700 years

 

[JimBowie1958]

Let's say "Strong AI" will be able to do all that. When?
Let's say I want and am willing to pay for digital escargot forks. Are your really telling me that AIs are predicting that and undertaking to build them?
Let's say I want a piece of art that depicts some abstract concept. How is an AI going to produce that to my satisfaction?

White collar labor:
A Computer Just Came Up With a Scientific Theory

AI learns and recreates Nobel-winning physics experiment

AI More Like Iron Man's JARVIS Is Coming This Next Decade…Bring It On

Teaching old robots new tricks: Machines swap skills 325 miles apart

Scientists want to build a ‘new class of computer’ that can control physical matter - Factor

Fears robots will take over world by becoming lawyers, architects and doctors

These robots just want to blend in

Self-flying helicopter makes first 30 mile journey in Connecticut


Blue collar labor
Robot bricklayer can build a whole house in two days

Robots picking fruit and driving tractors?

Nanobots | Nanorobotics | Micro Robot

http://io9.gizmodo.com/5538320/behold-the-first-nanobot-assembly-line-in-action


Robots ubiquitous
Zoltan Istvan: 'Half of Americans Will Probably Have a Robot in Their House' Within 5 Years - Breitbart

Bill Gross: What to Do After the Robots Take Our Jobs

Our future masters?
https://www.theguardian.com/technol...n-humans-life-useless-artificial-intelligence

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...artificial-intelligence-that-won-t-destroy-us

http://fortune.com/2015/06/25/apple-wozniak-robots-pets/

http://metro.co.uk/2015/08/31/intel...-safe-in-my-people-zoo-5369311/#ixzz3kTfFpN5O

 

[Picaro]

And that is a problem for those of us with a moral compass.

Bottom line is a large population is no longer necessary or even viable, and measures are needed to reduce it. Whether one favors policies that do so over time, by a natural reduction in birthrates, or chooses the old fashioned traditional methods of wars, famines, and plagues, it will happen sooner or later. The West has been doing the former, voluntarily, while the atavistic and backward cultures rely on the latter to solve their problems. Importing the latter into the former is just suicidal stupidity.

 

[Unkotare]

And that is a problem for those of us with a moral compass.

Bottom line is a large population is no longer necessary or even viable, and measures are needed to reduce it. ....

Nonsense.

 

[kaz]

This is karma coming back to bite the hand that bred it fer sher.

Hey, you managers that exported jobs all over the globe; your day is coming too!

The robots set to disrupt white collar work

The jobs most likely to be disrupted by automation will be roles in customer service, office and administration, but other kinds of work will be created.

"The cognitive era will create new jobs, such as robot monitoring professionals, data scientists, automation specialists, and content curators," the report said.

"But the transformation of existing jobs resulting from reengineering a process to use cognitive support — such as turning low-value data entry work to higher-level analyst or customer-oriented roles — will be even more dramatic."

The reason clerical roles will be replaced is because they are highly repetitive and involve processes which are easy to replicate by machine, according to Neil Kinson, chief of staff at robotics firm Redwood Software, which automates back office and administrative processes in finance, supply chain and human resources.

"There was a very well publicized report by Oxford University that ranks your job relative to its likelihood to be automated by 2020," he told CNBC in a phone interview. "Top of the list of those jobs was highly repetitive clerical-type activities.

"Anything that is highly repetitive, that follows a repetitive role and uses some kind of technology, can be automated," he added.

They've been saying jobs are going away since the industrial revolution. The only reason it's happened the last decade is because the hysterical fear of change crowd has given government the mandate to save jobs, and government has used that mandate to destroy them faster than ever with an absurd tax system and endlessly more regulations. I just sold my business, I'm sick of it

 

[Unkotare]

...

They've been saying jobs are going away since the industrial revolution. ....

And they have been, just as new ones have been created.

 

[JimBowie1958]

They've been saying jobs are going away since the industrial revolution. The only reason it's happened the last decade is because the hysterical fear of change crowd has given government the mandate to save jobs, and government has used that mandate to destroy them faster than ever with an absurd tax system and endlessly more regulations. I just sold my business, I'm sick of it

Yes, kaz, the regulations under this Marxist President are ridiculous, but the Robotics revolution is a far deeper underlying development that is truly going to replace working people with robotic labor in every career or job specialty.

IF you oppose doing anything organized to address this on behalf of humanity as a whole, then you are effectively supporting a culling of the human race itself by about 90%.

Will you volunteer to be in that 90%?

 

[JimBowie1958]

...
They've been saying jobs are going away since the industrial revolution. ....

And they have been, just as new ones have been created.

And with robots being able to design, build, repair, make, maintain anything and everything, where are the new jobs going to be found?

 

[kaz]

...

They've been saying jobs are going away since the industrial revolution. ....

And they have been, just as new ones have been created.

Bingo!

 

[kaz]

They've been saying jobs are going away since the industrial revolution. The only reason it's happened the last decade is because the hysterical fear of change crowd has given government the mandate to save jobs, and government has used that mandate to destroy them faster than ever with an absurd tax system and endlessly more regulations. I just sold my business, I'm sick of it

Yes, kaz, the regulations under this Marxist President are ridiculous, but the Robotics revolution is a far deeper underlying development that is truly going to replace working people with robotic labor in every career or job specialty.

IF you oppose doing anything organized to address this on behalf of humanity as a whole, then you are effectively supporting a culling of the human race itself by about 90%.

Services are our future, not manufacturing, as a growth engine. Robotics keep jobs here.

Will you volunteer to be in that 90%?

You fundamentally don't understand how this works. You don't "volunteer" to not have a job. You end up without a job because you are without marketable skills and/or you won't work for less than you think you deserve.

So no, I won't "volunteer" to not have a job. I'll work to have one

 

[JimBowie1958]

...

They've been saying jobs are going away since the industrial revolution. ....

And they have been, just as new ones have been created.

Bingo!

No, no bingo.

When have we had a tech revolution that made things that could replace doctors and lawyers in their careers?

Dont be an OStritch and just bury your head to not see the coming problems. They dont go away just because you refuse to see them.

And the societal changes will be very painful, at a minimum, but potentially catastrophic.

 

[kaz]

...
They've been saying jobs are going away since the industrial revolution. ....

And they have been, just as new ones have been created.

And with robots being able to design, build, repair, make, maintain anything and everything, where are the new jobs going to be found?

Again, manufacturing is such a small part of our growth engine. And these keep jobs here because they reduce costs.

Start by doing what's in our control. Have government stop doing the things that are driving jobs offshore that aren't in search of lower wages, just less regulatory oppression and our absurd tax structure and rates. That is something we could do now that would have a dramatic positive effect. It would even draw more foreign investment here

 

[JimBowie1958]

They've been saying jobs are going away since the industrial revolution. The only reason it's happened the last decade is because the hysterical fear of change crowd has given government the mandate to save jobs, and government has used that mandate to destroy them faster than ever with an absurd tax system and endlessly more regulations. I just sold my business, I'm sick of it

Yes, kaz, the regulations under this Marxist President are ridiculous, but the Robotics revolution is a far deeper underlying development that is truly going to replace working people with robotic labor in every career or job specialty.

IF you oppose doing anything organized to address this on behalf of humanity as a whole, then you are effectively supporting a culling of the human race itself by about 90%.

Services are our future, not manufacturing, as a growth engine. Robotics keep jobs here.

Will you volunteer to be in that 90%?

You fundamentally don't understand how this works. You don't "volunteer" to not have a job. You end up without a job because you are without marketable skills and/or you won't work for less than you think you deserve.

So no, I won't "volunteer" to not have a job. I'll work to have one

The 90% I was referring to was a CULLING, i.e. people killed via plague, starvation or worse. I was not referring to merely being employed.

You seem to think you can just invent a job, but you wont.

The bottom is being raced to in this economy and that bottom is bartering hand crafted goods.... at best