What's behind Obamas swing state surge?

[rightwinger]

What is behind Obama's Swing state surge??

Oversampling of Democrats.

The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted July 16-26, 2012, among 2,508 adults, including 1,956 registered voters, finds that, in keeping with his favorability advantage, Obama continues to hold a sizable lead over Romney in the election contest. Currently, 51% say they support Obama or lean toward him, while 41% support or lean toward Romney.

Except….

Sample Size:

459 Republicans

813 Democrats

599 Independents

In the best election season Democrats have enjoyed since Nixon resigned, 2008, the Democrat advantage was only D+8, but Pew is now attempting to hustle us into believing the turnout this year is going to be D +19.

The internals make even less sense. According to the same Pew poll that has Obama up by 10 nationally, he's only ahead by 4 in the swings states, but he's losing to Romney with independents 45-43%

Good point if Pew was the only ones doing polling in the country. State polls are generally done by local polling agencies and a few national ones like Gallup or Rassmussen. Are you claiming that EVERY poll in EVERY state over samples Democrats because one happened to do it?

 

[JakeStarkey]

Some caveats about this election.

Obama is not Carter.

Romney is not Reagan.

Obama should be way behind, but holds a slight edge, and may be pulling away slowly in three or four of the swing states.

Tea Party popularity continues to sag. Has anyone checked Tea Party popularity in the swing states?

 

[Katzndogz]

Obama as the incumbent should be way ahead. Or are you saying he's so unpopular he should be way behind? Now if what you mean is that obama and his policies ate so disliked, he should be way behind, but Romney is distateful enough to give obama an edge, that is understandable.

 

[mudwhistle]

Voters do not really know Romney yet; the 200-250 MILLION net worth is memorable. He can overcome that in the coming months, but not campaigning as he did overseas.

I'm not buying this argument. The hypocrisy is glaring. Ann Romney wears a $900 blouse and she's a snob. Michelle wears a $7000 jacket and she's just being stylish.

The Romneys enter a horse in the Olympics and it becomes a joke because nobody knows what Gersage is. The Obama's rub elbows with stuck up Hollywood millionaires, take vacations to Hawaii that cost millions to station a fleet off the coast, fly around in separate jets on shopping trips to Spain, Obama never having to lift a finger to do anything, never holding a real job in his life yet his attack dogs accuse Ann Romney of doing the same. John Kerry's wife is 3 time richer than the Romneys but that didn't seem to matter to the left.

You have to have a short memory to let these exaggerations work on you.

Obama has never won an election straight up. He wins by making shit up about his opponents. He's never won using his record as a basis.

Oh, btw, somebody called me and told me Barrack Obama likes raping puppies. I can't prove it, but I've heard it was the case. The silence from the Obama campaign proves there really is something to it.

 

[Katzndogz]

No one will ever forget the campaigning obama did overseas. He was the only candidate running for office that every demanded that Germany permit him to speak at the Brandenburg gate.

 

[Katzndogz]

Voters do not really know Romney yet; the 200-250 MILLION net worth is memorable. He can overcome that in the coming months, but not campaigning as he did overseas.

I'm not buying this argument. The hypocrisy is glaring. Ann Romney wears a $900 blouse and she's a snob. Michelle wears a $7000 jacket and she's just being stylish.

The Romneys enter a horse in the Olympics and it becomes a joke because nobody knows what Gersage is. The Obama's rub elbows with stuck up Hollywood millionaires, take vacations to Hawaii that cost millions to station a fleet off the coast, fly around in separate jets on shopping trips to Spain, Obama never having to lift a finger to do anything, never holding a real job in his life yet his attack dogs accuse Ann Romney of doing the same. John Kerry's wife is 3 time richer than the Romneys but that didn't seem to matter to the left.

You have to have a short memory to let these exaggerations work on you.

Obama has never won an election straight up. He wins by making shit up about his opponents. He's never won using his record as a basis.

Oh, btw, somebody called me and told me Barrack Obama likes raping puppies. I can't prove it, but I've heard it was the case. The silence from the Obama campaign proves there really is something to it.

obama rapes the puppies right before he eats them. On an anonymous but credible authority said that obama said that rape improves the taste.

 

[rightwinger]

Some caveats about this election.

Obama is not Carter.

Romney is not Reagan.

Obama should be way behind, but holds a slight edge, and may be pulling away slowly in three or four of the swing states.

Tea Party popularity continues to sag. Has anyone checked Tea Party popularity in the swing states?

It sucks in swing states. I can't really tell about Wisconsin

In Texas, they just had a big win ousting the mainstream republican for the vacant Senate seat

 

[rightwinger]

Obama as the incumbent should be way ahead. Or are you saying he's so unpopular he should be way behind? Now if what you mean is that obama and his policies ate so disliked, he should be way behind, but Romney is distateful enough to give obama an edge, that is understandable.

Thats the point.

Romney should have wind in his sails by this point in the race. No question that he has money, but he lacks grassroots support. Most Republicans seem to be holding their noses when they pledge for him.
The strength of the "anybody but Romney" movement still stings

Romney needs to do much better in the swing states where Obama leads in almost every race. If he has not drawn even by the RNC convention ...he is doomed

 

[naturegirl]

Yes, it's called today's Republican Party.

One of the best gifts he's gotten is to be able to run against a party that would even consider nominating the likes of Rick Santorum.

Those numbers are under O's watch with huge majorities in congress for two years and a continuing majority in the senate.

Compared to what?

Obama was given a Republican economy losing 700,000 jobs a month and it is now adding 100,000 jobs a month
Obama was given an economy with negative GDP for five quarters and has had positive GDP for 14 straight quarters
Obama was given a stock market at 8000 and it has risen to 13000

Now why do we want to return to republican fiscal insanity?

ROTFLMBO.........Bush had a Democrat Congress, Obama didn't inherit it from Bush, he inherited it from the 110th. Who controls the purse strings?? Not the President.

41 straight months of unemployment above 8%. Wonder who Romney's VP pick will be.

 

[rightwinger]

Those numbers are under O's watch with huge majorities in congress for two years and a continuing majority in the senate.

Compared to what?

Obama was given a Republican economy losing 700,000 jobs a month and it is now adding 100,000 jobs a month
Obama was given an economy with negative GDP for five quarters and has had positive GDP for 14 straight quarters
Obama was given a stock market at 8000 and it has risen to 13000

Now why do we want to return to republican fiscal insanity?

ROTFLMBO.........Bush had a Democrat Congress, Obama didn't inherit it from Bush, he inherited it from the 110th. Who controls the purse strings?? Not the President.

41 straight months of unemployment above 8%. Wonder who Romney's VP pick will be.

Bush had a Democratic congress and a huge veto stamp. You can try blaming it on Congress.......but you will have to point to specific legislation they forced past Bush

Bushs biggest fault was his deer in the headlights response to an impending economic collapse. He refused to even acknowledge a recession until the Richmond were over. His insistence on letting the free market play itself out almost led to disaster

It was not until he started to listen to Paulson instead of Cheney that he began to put the brakes on

 

[Zander]

What is behind Obama's Swing state surge??

Oversampling of Democrats.

The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted July 16-26, 2012, among 2,508 adults, including 1,956 registered voters, finds that, in keeping with his favorability advantage, Obama continues to hold a sizable lead over Romney in the election contest. Currently, 51% say they support Obama or lean toward him, while 41% support or lean toward Romney.

Except….

Sample Size:

459 Republicans

813 Democrats

599 Independents

In the best election season Democrats have enjoyed since Nixon resigned, 2008, the Democrat advantage was only D+8, but Pew is now attempting to hustle us into believing the turnout this year is going to be D +19.

The internals make even less sense. According to the same Pew poll that has Obama up by 10 nationally, he's only ahead by 4 in the swings states, but he's losing to Romney with independents 45-43%

Good point if Pew was the only ones doing polling in the country. State polls are generally done by local polling agencies and a few national ones like Gallup or Rassmussen. Are you claiming that EVERY poll in EVERY state over samples Democrats because one happened to do it?

The last three polls in the "real clear politics" average all oversampled democrats by a large margin. Why would they do that? There is one very good reason- it's to keep alive the narrative that Obama is winning and that Romney can't get his act together.

Obama's record stinks and he knows it, you know it, the entire world knows it. The only way Obama can win is if voters do not see Romney as an acceptable alternative. So if the Palace guards in the Obama friendly media and their pollsters can pester Romney with nonsense, distractions, and bullshit polls with D +19 sample sizes - it keeps Romney on defense, and makes him look incompetent. If Romney looks incompetent, the American people won’t hire him, no matter how much they want to fire Obama. That is the Obama election strategy in a nutshell.

 

[rightwinger]

What is behind Obama's Swing state surge??

Oversampling of Democrats.

Good point if Pew was the only ones doing polling in the country. State polls are generally done by local polling agencies and a few national ones like Gallup or Rassmussen. Are you claiming that EVERY poll in EVERY state over samples Democrats because one happened to do it?

The last three polls in the "real clear politics" average all oversampled democrats by a large margin. Why would they do that? There is one very good reason- it's to keep alive the narrative that Obama is winning and that Romney can't get his act together.

Obama's record stinks and he knows it, you know it, the entire world knows it. The only way Obama can win is if voters do not see Romney as an acceptable alternative. So if the Palace guards in the Obama friendly media and their pollsters can pester Romney with nonsense, distractions, and bullshit polls with D +19 sample sizes - it keeps Romney on defense, and makes him look incompetent. If Romney looks incompetent, the American people won’t hire him, no matter how much they want to fire Obama. That is the Obama election strategy in a nutshell.

You have a link to that?

Sounds like a conspiracy to not give Mitt the luvv'n he deserves

 

[bigrebnc1775]

The 5 economic stats that will decide the election … are all pointing down for Obama | AEIdeas

New Polls Show Signs Of Serious Vulnerability For President Obama - ABC News

 

[candycorn]

What is behind Obama's Swing state surge??

Oversampling of Democrats.

Good point if Pew was the only ones doing polling in the country. State polls are generally done by local polling agencies and a few national ones like Gallup or Rassmussen. Are you claiming that EVERY poll in EVERY state over samples Democrats because one happened to do it?

The last three polls in the "real clear politics" average all oversampled democrats by a large margin. Why would they do that? There is one very good reason- it's to keep alive the narrative that Obama is winning and that Romney can't get his act together.

Obama's record stinks and he knows it, you know it, the entire world knows it. The only way Obama can win is if voters do not see Romney as an acceptable alternative. So if the Palace guards in the Obama friendly media and their pollsters can pester Romney with nonsense, distractions, and bullshit polls with D +19 sample sizes - it keeps Romney on defense, and makes him look incompetent. If Romney looks incompetent, the American people won’t hire him, no matter how much they want to fire Obama. That is the Obama election strategy in a nutshell.

Pollsters do not normally call cell phones. Many younger voters are cell-only (no land line). Almost every phone poll is skewed away from younger voters because of this and most younger voters lean Democratic.

If the Governor has any hope of winning the Presidency, he has to come out and start defining himself. Obama has painted him as an aloof elitist and the Governor's actions have underlined both the aloofness (not taking questions) and the elitist (not releasing just tax returns) of the portrait the President is painting.

We're inside of 100 days now. If not now; when?

For my own standpoint; I don't think the Governor is being counseled very well. His staff had the strategy of simply out spending and destroying Gingrich/Santorum. That isn't working with the President and his deep pockets compared to GOP also-rans. So they are playing their hand of "Obama Bad" and it isn't working.

As for Obama's record, it's good; not great. Much to his detrement, the Governor's proposals look much like George W. Bush's 3rd term: reduce regulation...tax cuts for the uber-wealthy...war in the middle east...hands off of Wall Street...cut entitlements except for the uber-wealthy. Obama called him on that and is doing so nearly every day with the words "Trickle Down" mentioned early, often and over and over again.

Not only is he hitting him on policies; he's hitting him on the personal attacks as well. The President is being very Rove-like in this campaign. I understand why he's doing it; it works. It's about time we had a Democrat that isn't afraid of the slugfest.

 

[JakeStarkey]

Request someone post a credible, objective analysis link to "The last three polls in the "real clear politics" average all oversampled democrats by a large margin."

 

[rightwinger]

Request someone post a credible, objective analysis link to "The last three polls in the "real clear politics" average all oversampled democrats by a large margin."

Real Clear does not do polls. They take averages of local and national polls

All of which are obviously biased against Romney

 

[Zander]

Request someone post a credible, objective analysis link to "The last three polls in the "real clear politics" average all oversampled democrats by a large margin."

Real Clear does not do polls. They take averages of local and national polls

All of which are obviously biased against Romney

not all of them...Rasmussen is honest. Oddly, he shows Romney ahead by 4% nationally. On RCP - the last 3 polls (excluding today's rasmussen poll) all oversampled democrats. click the link below and then click on each poll. It's all right there in the details. Now, if you need your information spoon fed to you and interpreted for you, well, you just continue to believe that "Obama's a lock".
RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - General Election: Romney vs. Obama

 

[JakeStarkey]

The falsehood of the supposed oversampling of supposed Democratic households has been definitively dealt with elsewhere.

I think RW has an important point. The more independents and centrists despise the TPM in the swing states, the more those states will swing toward the Dems.

The TPM has to tone down the rhetoric.

Romney has enough to handle without having to worry about his far right flank as well.

 

[NYcarbineer]

Request someone post a credible, objective analysis link to "The last three polls in the "real clear politics" average all oversampled democrats by a large margin."

Real Clear does not do polls. They take averages of local and national polls

All of which are obviously biased against Romney

not all of them...Rasmussen is honest. Oddly, he shows Romney ahead by 4% nationally. On RCP - the last 3 polls (excluding today's rasmussen poll) all oversampled democrats. click the link below and then click on each poll. It's all right there in the details. Now, if you need your information spoon fed to you and interpreted for you, well, you just continue to believe that "Obama's a lock".
RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - General Election: Romney vs. Obama

Do you know how many Democrats and Republicans there are in the country?

 

[Dot Com]

White people won't tell a pollster they are not going to vote for the failed black guy.

Bradley Effect.

Barry is getting his butt kicked right now.

ask me. I'll tell em. I'm sick of all this racist bullshit.

Good post WillowJoyce