What the hell is with these pollsters?

[8537]

As part of the polling questions, would it be impossible to ask, as ONE of the questions, do you consider yourself to be a Democrat, a Republican an Independent or "other?"

And maybe, since they are randomly calling REGISTERED voters, they could ALSO ask, "how likely is it that you will be voting on Election day?"

They obviously did ask that question, or at least somehow gleaned it. Otherwise the poll wouldn't say that it had 9% more Democrats than Republicans.

It's a legit poll. Those who disagree with the findings are the ones talking shit.

The findings are accurate. They arent however represenative of our country. Sorry that point is too complicated for you to grasp.

How do you know that?

 

[8537]

As part of the polling questions, would it be impossible to ask, as ONE of the questions, do you consider yourself to be a Democrat, a Republican an Independent or "other?"

And maybe, since they are randomly calling REGISTERED voters, they could ALSO ask, "how likely is it that you will be voting on Election day?"

They do ask which party you consider yourself. That's where they get the sampling figure.

Right. So that answers YOUR question, then. Randomly SELECT the roughly correct percentage of respondents from that group of the entire sample of respondents to correspond with the actual percentages of Dim vs. GOP voters.

That's one thing they could do.

How do you know what the "actual percentages of Dims vs. GOP voters"?

 

[Remodeling Maidiac]

They obviously did ask that question, or at least somehow gleaned it. Otherwise the poll wouldn't say that it had 9% more Democrats than Republicans.

It's a legit poll. Those who disagree with the findings are the ones talking shit.

The findings are accurate. They arent however represenative of our country. Sorry that point is too complicated for you to grasp.

How do you know that?

Stop trolling, its getting old

 

[8537]

The findings are accurate. They arent however represenative of our country. Sorry that point is too complicated for you to grasp.

How do you know that?

Stop trolling, its getting old

So you don't know how they might go about figuring out the breakdown of Dems, Reps and independents - but you're certain this poll by Fox is biased because...well..b/c it feels biased?

 

[Liability]

They do ask which party you consider yourself. That's where they get the sampling figure.

Right. So that answers YOUR question, then. Randomly SELECT the roughly correct percentage of respondents from that group of the entire sample of respondents to correspond with the actual percentages of Dim vs. GOP voters.

That's one thing they could do.

How do you know what the "actual percentages of Dims vs. GOP voters"?

Damn, boy, you be goin' round in circles and shit.

You get those answering the poll to tell you (assuming you are asking about the actual percentage" contained within the polling sample.

As to the general population, you may not know the exact figures of what percentage of which party will come out to vote on Dejection Day, but you certainly CAN use the most recent couple of elections as a guideline. It may not be an exact science, but it can be done better.

 

[8537]

Right. So that answers YOUR question, then. Randomly SELECT the roughly correct percentage of respondents from that group of the entire sample of respondents to correspond with the actual percentages of Dim vs. GOP voters.

That's one thing they could do.

How do you know what the "actual percentages of Dims vs. GOP voters"?

Damn, boy, you be goin' round in circles and shit.

You get those answering the poll to tell you (assuming you are asking about the actual percentage" contained within the polling sample.

As to the general population, you may not know the exact figures of what percentage of which party will come out to vote on Dejection Day, but you certainly CAN use the most recent couple of elections as a guideline. It may not be an exact science, but it can be done better.

Why would you use an election from four years ago, which doesn't even tell you which party someone was from (because that would miss all independents and it would assume that everyone who voted R at the top of the ticket is an R and every that voted D at the top is a D) ?

The makeup of party affiliation changes - that's how 2010 and 2006 had such different outcomes.

There is only one way to know the actual current breakdown, and that's to do a census of the whole country. No polling place can do that....

 

[Remodeling Maidiac]

How do you know what the "actual percentages of Dims vs. GOP voters"?

Damn, boy, you be goin' round in circles and shit.

You get those answering the poll to tell you (assuming you are asking about the actual percentage" contained within the polling sample.

As to the general population, you may not know the exact figures of what percentage of which party will come out to vote on Dejection Day, but you certainly CAN use the most recent couple of elections as a guideline. It may not be an exact science, but it can be done better.

Why would you use an election from four years ago, which doesn't even tell you which party someone was from (because that would miss all independents and it would assume that everyone who voted R at the top of the ticket is an R and every that voted D at the top is a D) ?

The makeup of party affiliation changes - that's how 2010 and 2006 had such different outcomes.

There is only one way to know the actual current breakdown, and that's to do a census of the whole country. No polling place can do that....

So fuck it then right? The default position then becomes OVER SAMPLE DEMOCRATS EVERY DAMN TIME FOR EVERY DAMN POLL

Your troll has failed move along

 

[ConservaDerrps]

I don't care but it does go to show you that the results are not neutral, they should favor obama. If the poll was 54% conservatives and 46% liberals I would expect either a tie or a slight lead for Romney.

DO you disagree with my assumption?

If the poll went the other way you fucktards wouldn't be saying a fucking thing. That's how I know you're acting like this is a travesty of polling science. It's not. It's just one fucking poll that shows your guy getting his ass handed to him is all.

I get it. The pain in your pussies will go away one day, I'm sure. Probably whenever it is the black guy in the White House leaves.

You never answered my question. If the polling sample had 9% more republicans than democrats would the results have been the same as this poll which has 9% more dems than reps in it?

And you don't have to ascribe opinions that I did not post nor that I hold onto me when responding (I know i've had to tell you this a few times but you still make the same false assumptions about me)

You should definitely cry about it some more.

 

[8537]

Damn, boy, you be goin' round in circles and shit.

You get those answering the poll to tell you (assuming you are asking about the actual percentage" contained within the polling sample.

As to the general population, you may not know the exact figures of what percentage of which party will come out to vote on Dejection Day, but you certainly CAN use the most recent couple of elections as a guideline. It may not be an exact science, but it can be done better.

Why would you use an election from four years ago, which doesn't even tell you which party someone was from (because that would miss all independents and it would assume that everyone who voted R at the top of the ticket is an R and every that voted D at the top is a D) ?

The makeup of party affiliation changes - that's how 2010 and 2006 had such different outcomes.

There is only one way to know the actual current breakdown, and that's to do a census of the whole country. No polling place can do that....

So fuck it then right? The default position then becomes OVER SAMPLE DEMOCRATS EVERY DAMN TIME FOR EVERY DAMN POLL

Your troll has failed move along

No, you are clearly not understanding my point. Let me try it a different way:
If a series of random sample surveys with error ranges of +/-3 to 5% show a breakdown of Dems and Reps all within the margin of error of each other, that should serve as an indication that:

1) a whole bunch of consecutive polls are falling outside the 95% line, 2 standard deviations from the norm or...
2) the breakdown of Dems and Reps is approximately within the range of recent polls.

in other words, if virtually every poll "over samples" democrats and there's no reason to suspect a systemic bias from the design of all of the polls (for instance, Dems answer phones and Reps don't), then the most logical explanation is that it's not over sampling.

 

[Misty]

Look, I've already proven that at this same time with the last two elections, the candidate that polled higher, lost.

 

[AmyNation]

Look, I've already proven that at this same time with the last two elections, the candidate that polled higher, lost.

Gallup Presidential Election Trial Heat Results: Barack Obama vs. Mitt Romney

 

[NYcarbineer]

I just looked into the new Fox poll and was stunned to see that even they OVERSAMPLED democrats. And not by a little either.

44% democrat to 35% republican http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2012/08/09/fox-news-poll-presidential-race/

Why would anyone even publish such a skewed poll??????????????????

If you look deep into the data you can also see that they have consistantly oversampled democrats from as much as 1% to 9%

With such a small number of respondents polled how can they expect to get a fair sampling of the pulse of the people when nonsense like this is done? I can see why a left leaning establishment may want to skew a poll but why the hell would Fox do the same damn thing?

The Reuters Ipsos poll undersampled Democrats and has Obama +7.

Will you accept that number?

 

[Remodeling Maidiac]

I just looked into the new Fox poll and was stunned to see that even they OVERSAMPLED democrats. And not by a little either.

44% democrat to 35% republican http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2012/08/09/fox-news-poll-presidential-race/

Why would anyone even publish such a skewed poll??????????????????

If you look deep into the data you can also see that they have consistantly oversampled democrats from as much as 1% to 9%

With such a small number of respondents polled how can they expect to get a fair sampling of the pulse of the people when nonsense like this is done? I can see why a left leaning establishment may want to skew a poll but why the hell would Fox do the same damn thing?

The Reuters Ipsos poll undersampled Democrats and has Obama +7.

Will you accept that number?

Provide a link to their details and I will let you know

 

[PLYMCO_PILGRIM]

If the poll went the other way you fucktards wouldn't be saying a fucking thing. That's how I know you're acting like this is a travesty of polling science. It's not. It's just one fucking poll that shows your guy getting his ass handed to him is all.

I get it. The pain in your pussies will go away one day, I'm sure. Probably whenever it is the black guy in the White House leaves.

You never answered my question. If the polling sample had 9% more republicans than democrats would the results have been the same as this poll which has 9% more dems than reps in it?

And you don't have to ascribe opinions that I did not post nor that I hold onto me when responding (I know i've had to tell you this a few times but you still make the same false assumptions about me)

You should definitely cry about it some more.

You mistake correcting your innacurate response and representation of myself for crying. I just want the record to be straight. Or do you mean the neg rep I handed to you for me having to ask you to be honest about what I type and what my positions are for the 6th time? That was some negative reinforcement in hopes of affecting your future behavior.

I do wish you had the courage to answer the question however.

 

[MeBelle]

I just looked into the new Fox poll and was stunned to see that even they OVERSAMPLED democrats. And not by a little either.

44% democrat to 35% republican http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2012/08/09/fox-news-poll-presidential-race/

Why would anyone even publish such a skewed poll??????????????????

If you look deep into the data you can also see that they have consistantly oversampled democrats from as much as 1% to 9%

With such a small number of respondents polled how can they expect to get a fair sampling of the pulse of the people when nonsense like this is done? I can see why a left leaning establishment may want to skew a poll but why the hell would Fox do the same damn thing?

The Reuters Ipsos poll undersampled Democrats and has Obama +7.

Will you accept that number?

Provide a link to their details and I will let you know

http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=11840


He can't link because his claim is not correct.

 

[Remodeling Maidiac]

The Reuters Ipsos poll undersampled Democrats and has Obama +7.

Will you accept that number?

Provide a link to their details and I will let you know

http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=11840


He can't link because his claim is not correct.

lol busted

537 dems vs 512 gop

 

[Dick Tuck]

I'm still waiting for someone to explain how the pollsters is supposed to know exactly the mix of Dems, Reps and independents to use in order to NOT oversample anyone.

Most use a very large study, done by the University of Michigan, done every four years on voting behavior, to know the size of each party's registration. Some pollsters use state registration numbers to determine the mix. The reputable pollsters use this to weigh their results.

 

[Dick Tuck]

A "random sample" survey doesn't act like the Mr. Clean magic eraser.

If the random sample over samples for Dims over Republicans, it still over samples. This still leads to skewed results.

Why do you think they weigh their results when they oversample?

(A) that would assume that they do.

(B) it would also assume that their methodology of weighting the results properly corrects for the over-sampling, and

(C) that the weighting simultaneously compensates for the skewing caused by randomly sampling Registered voters rather than Likely voters.

FOX claims thier pollsters don't weigh based on party affiliateion, but their pollsters do weigh on age, gender, race/ethnicity. They specifically said, the recent poll that they did oversample Hispanics, but that becomes meaningless with the other weights on the primary demographics. They were interested in Hispanic attitude. So if they do weigh on age, gender, race, and ethnicity using the Census data, doesn't that in fact also diminish the presumed oversample of Democrats.

I can see their point. Look at a state like West Virginia, which is virtually owned by Democrats, but voted against Obama.

If I were an Obamaphobe, I'd be shitting myself more on the fact that independents are breaking for Obama much earlier than usual. I'd also look deep in their numbers, combined with the demographic shift that you can find in Census data, to make a determination how Hispanics are going to vote this November.

Still researching CNN's weight adjustments.

 

[Dick Tuck]

Provide a link to their details and I will let you know

http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=11840


He can't link because his claim is not correct.

lol busted

537 dems vs 512 gop

Hey shit stain, did you bother to read the details of the FOX poll? You don't know your ass from a fucking hole in the ground.

The two polls ought to cause you to hershey squirt your depends, only because of how independents are breaking out for Obama.

 

[NYcarbineer]

Provide a link to their details and I will let you know

http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=11840


He can't link because his claim is not correct.

lol busted

537 dems vs 512 gop

Which is an undersample of Democrats.