weeding out my watchlist

[william the wie]

My goal is to survive a repeat of 87 but without the immediate recovery and generate yields that get me back in the money in less than a year. To do so I need to generate 3% after transactions costs per month in yield. So far I have been exceeding that goal with covered options but I am beginning to wonder how big of an outlier of a market I am dealing with.

 

[Moonglow]

Put weed on your watch list, it's better than gold...

 

[SYTFE]

Put weed on your watch list, it's better than gold...

Holy crap, if there was a way to invest in weed on the stock market...

 

[SYTFE]

My goal is to survive a repeat of 87 but without the immediate recovery and generate yields that get me back in the money in less than a year. To do so I need to generate 3% after transactions costs per month in yield. So far I have been exceeding that goal with covered options but I am beginning to wonder how big of an outlier of a market I am dealing with.

Wow. That's some advanced stuff. Very different approach from the one I take, which is to buy, and hold...and hold....and hold....FOREVER. lol

 

[william the wie]

My goal is to survive a repeat of 87 but without the immediate recovery and generate yields that get me back in the money in less than a year. To do so I need to generate 3% after transactions costs per month in yield. So far I have been exceeding that goal with covered options but I am beginning to wonder how big of an outlier of a market I am dealing with.

Wow. That's some advanced stuff. Very different approach from the one I take, which is to buy, and hold...and hold....and hold....FOREVER. lol

I took a closer look at what I could know and came up with a short list.

Beta is pretty well established.

Bonds being high return v. equities as with 1959 to earlier this year has been extremely rare.

Cash on cash returns tends to be more successful than betting on growth.

That's pretty much it.

 

[Picaro]

My goal is to survive a repeat of 87 but without the immediate recovery and generate yields that get me back in the money in less than a year. To do so I need to generate 3% after transactions costs per month in yield. So far I have been exceeding that goal with covered options but I am beginning to wonder how big of an outlier of a market I am dealing with.

Wow. That's some advanced stuff. Very different approach from the one I take, which is to buy, and hold...and hold....and hold....FOREVER. lol

I took a closer look at what I could know and came up with a short list.

Beta is pretty well established.

Bonds being high return v. equities as with 1959 to earlier this year has been extremely rare.

Cash on cash returns tends to be more successful than betting on growth.

That's pretty much it.

3% a month is pretty tough for an outsider, unless you know a few industries or commodities really well. Good luck to you, sounds fairly reasonable as a plan. Too much volatility needed for my personal tastes, though. I do my gambling in casinos, it takes less time to win or lose and more entertainment around, too. My wg-2 this year will on the positive side and looks good through the rest of theyear, making up for a dead year last year.

 

[william the wie]

I think the problem is the psych illusion of charts that make a 5% rise over the course of a year look like climbing mt. Olympus on Mars. (makes Everest look like a molehill.) Sooo, my assumptions are:

The market is not going to do much.

Given reversion to the mean I can get into good issues on the dip and get out at a profit on a temporary rebound. Boring I will grant you but I like it.